Name: George Morgen Dorgan
Date registered: August 4, 2012 6:19 am
George Morgen Dorgan is an economic advisor to the Swiss libertarian party UP Schweiz.
He is just one out of many that predicted the Jan15, 2015 financial tsunami - due to excessive risk taking. Most of his 780 pages on this blog spoke about some indications.
He manages a small hedge fund on global macro basis following contrarian strategies.
Dorgan is largely an Austrian economist, supply sider and fierce advocate of deflation enabled by technological progress, free trade and the global distribution of labor. He is against both the Neo Keynesian mainstream and those Austrians (incl. many in UP Schweiz) that see the hyper-inflationary collapse or a global deflation coming. The reason to oppose those Austrians are the productivity benefits of free trade, a key difference to the Great Depression. He also opposes the fraction of UP Schweiz that wants to abolish the SNB. His argument is that "as long there is the Fed we will need the SNB to protect the Swiss economy from the Fed."
His focus is on thorough examination and global comparison of balance of payments and savings/investments patterns, similar to the works of Michael Pettis. With Keynes he shares the idea of global "current account targeting" instead of targeting economic growth in the form of inflation or GDP.
The balance sheet of a central bank is an important part of the balance of payments. George is the specialist for the balance sheet and monetary data of the Swiss National Bank and Swiss economic history.
George rejects any econometric model and bases his reasoning on pure praxeology and the sociological differences among peoples globally. His view is that in many cases, e.g. in the Swiss case, the understanding of economic history leads to changes in the financial account of the balance of payments and the FX rate. This again leads to future economic developments like GDP growth, inflation or deflation. Hence the perception of economic history and FX drive the future economic development. History must repeat itself with some slightly changed parameters !
He agrees with the ideas of Tomáš Sedláček that GDP growth is currently not important, but a stabilisation of savings rates in order to "prevent irrationality". George is also influenced by Minsky and Richard Koo, but he considers fiscal intervention only when private sector savings rates are rapidly increasing. He reckons that in a long-term perspective under-utilisation of labor is extraordinarily low in the world, in particular in emerging and (previously) less privileged economies.
For him, the 2008 financial crisis was rather a balance of payments crisis in the United States. Thanks to globalisation and to fiscal expansion in China, it was only a very short-lived crisis.
Dorgan started up as Quant programmer in the FX area, he worked at UBS and Reuters. He speaks nine languages including Russian. He has a broad knowledge on (economic) history, law, computer science and business.
Apart from economic research and investments, he manages operational risk and Too Big To Fail projects in big Swiss banks.
A partial picture about Dorgan's ideas can be obtained in his presentation at the CFA society in Zurich.
His recent publications that were editor's picks in Seeking Alpha:
FX Rates, Contrarian Investment And The Misleading Concept Called GDP
The Dollar, The ISM, Buy American And Irrational Exuberance
Other often read contributions are: What Drives Government Bond Yields?
The Six Major Fundamental Factors that Determine Gold and Silver Prices
For privacy purposes George Morgen added "Dorgan" as alias to his name. One major reason was that in 2011 all Swiss political parties supported the Euro minimum exchange rate. From the beginning his blog actively opposed this measure and judged that the 1.20 was too risky for both SNB balance sheet and potential asset bubbles. Prof. Janssen, finance professor emeritus at the University of Zurich and also advisor to UP Schweiz, is one of the few well-known Swiss economists that agreed with Dorgan in 2011. With the end of the peg, the views of the SNB and the ones of Janssen and Dorgan got closer together again.
His Google Plus profile and his Twitter account.
- What Caused The SNB Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction — January 20, 2015 11:28 pm
- (Update January 20) Where does SNB intervene against overvalued CHF and where do they sell EUR&USD? — January 15, 2015 2:09 pm
- Leading Swiss Monetary Policy Economist Proposes Dollar-Euro Minimum Rate Basket Instead Euro Floor — January 11, 2015 9:25 pm
- German Home Prices are Quickly Recovering the Gap against French ones — December 29, 2014 10:48 am
- Happy Xmas Lars von Trier — December 24, 2014 5:23 pm
Most commented posts
- Isn’t it wonderful to trade with a strong central bank behind you? — 10 comments
- Can The SNB Make Profit On Currency Reserves ? — 10 comments
- Main US Economic Indicators — 7 comments
- What’s this crazy movement in EUR/CHF ? SNB Floor Hike ? — 6 comments
- Ron Paul: Will The Swiss Vote to Get Their Gold Back? — 4 comments