George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

George Dorgan's articles

Weekly SNB Intervention Update: Sight Deposits and Speculative Position

First week of February: Speculators are closing down their short positions on the euro- both against the dollar and against CHF. The carry trade is breaking down into a reverse carry trade. This leads to a strengthening of the euro versus CHF. Given...


Weak CHF during the Fat Years of the Joseph Cycle

In December 2015, the seven year Joseph cycle ended with a Fed rate hike. These lean years of the Joseph cycle started in December 2008 when the Fed lowered rates to the current level. We think that in the next seven year cycle, even the risk-averse...

SNB Reduced Loss from 50 Billion in June to 23 Billion

According to the latest news release, the Swiss National Bank expects an annual loss of 23 billion CHF, after reporting a loss of 50 billion at the end of June. Primarily thanks to the stronger dollar, the SNB was able to achieve unrealized gains of 27...

Economic Forecasts for 2015: Swiss Banks were too Optimistic

Our analysis of the forecasts of economic data for 2015 shows that the Swiss banks were too optimistic for most data. US growth, the oil price, inflation and interest rates are far lower than expected. The errors for stock indices were smaller.

Monetary assessment meeting Swiss National Bank

Monetary assessment meeting Swiss National Bank: My real-time tweets contain the main important points of the SNB meeting from the view of investors or FX traders.

SNB’s history of balance sheet and Monthly bulletin

The SNB monthly bulletins contain all important data of the SNB and the Swiss economy as of the latest quarter.

Richard Koo´s misleading take on the great recession: The final chapter – a guest post by Mark Sadowski

Government bond yields by country and maturity

Zerohedge and its economic philosophy

The 2015 Update: Risks on the Rising SNB Money Supply

We explain the risks on the rising money supply in Switzerland. We distinguish between broad money supply (M1-M3) and narrow money supply (M0). Both are rising quickly.

Q2 2015: Swiss GDP up 0.2%, Strong Rise of Investments on Equipment, Consumption Lags Again

Swiss GDP increased by 0.2% q/q and by 1.2% y/y. Once again, investments on equipment and software (+3.6%) was one of the main drivers. For many economists investment on equipment and software is the most desired GDP growth component.

Swiss GDP 2014 +1.9%. Trade Surplus Contributed More than Half, Consumption Lagged

According to the figures of Swiss Statistics, the Swiss trade surplus rose by 10.4% in 2014. Therefore its contribution to the 2014 real GDP is higher than 50%. Private consumption lagged compared to the other components of Gross Domestic Product.

Purchasing Power Parity, REER: Swiss Franc Overvalued?

After the strong revaluation of the Swiss franc in recent years, some economists, like the ones at the Swiss National Bank (SNB), claim that the franc is overvalued. Many use misleading Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) measures like the Big Mac index, the...

George Dorgan’s Critical Questions to the SNB (December 2014)

China in Continuous PPI Deflation and No Depression In Sight?

Both Chinese PMI and the producer price index (PPI) are in deflation since 2012. This opens a lot of questions about the sustainability of Chinese economic growth, but also about the certain economic theories that consider deflation as a precursor of...

China: Best way to manipulate GDP is to lower inflation

Many claim that China manipulates its economic data. We explain why the best way not to get caught is to lower the GDP deflator, as lower inflation helps to increase real GDP. Lombard Street Research assumes that Chinese officials followed that approach.

Lessons from History: The Volcker Moment and the First Cap on CHF

SNB most important posts about the Swiss National Bank

What Drives Government Bond Yields?

For us the five major drivers of government bond yields are: Inflation expectations and inflation: The by far most important criterion. High inflation expectations must be compensated via higher bond yields. The main driver behind inflation...