George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

George Dorgan's articles

Weekly SNB Intervention Update: Sight Deposits and Speculative Position

Weekly update on SNB interventions: Sight deposits are debt for the central bank, while FX positions are assets. An increase of sight deposits implies an SNB interventions and implicitly more debt. Our regular table on sight deposits now additionally...

Government bond yields by country and maturity

The 2015 Update: Risks on the Rising SNB Money Supply

We explain the risks on the rising money supply in Switzerland. We distinguish between broad money supply (M1-M3) and narrow money supply (M0). Both are rising quickly.

Q2 2015: Swiss GDP up 0.2%, Strong Rise of Investments on Equipment, Consumption Lags Again

Swiss GDP increased by 0.2% q/q and by 1.2% y/y. Once again, investments on equipment and software (+3.6%) was one of the main drivers. For many economists investment on equipment and software is the most desired GDP growth component.

Swiss GDP 2014 +1.9%. Trade Surplus Contributed More than Half, Consumption Lagged

According to the figures of Swiss Statistics, the Swiss trade surplus rose by 10.4% in 2014. Therefore its contribution to the 2014 real GDP is higher than 50%. Private consumption lagged compared to the other components of Gross Domestic Product.

Purchasing Power Parity, REER: Is the Swiss Franc Overvalued? (August 2015 update)

After the strong revaluation of the Swiss franc in recent years, some economists, like the ones at the Swiss National Bank (SNB), claim that the franc is overvalued. Many use misleading Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) measures like the Big Mac index, the...

China in Continuous PPI Deflation and No Depression In Sight?

Both Chinese PMI and the producer price index (PPI) are in deflation since 2012. This opens a lot of questions about the sustainability of Chinese economic growth, but also about the certain economic theories that consider deflation as a precursor of...

China: Best way to manipulate GDP is to lower inflation

Many claim that China manipulates its economic data. We explain why the best way not to get caught is to lower the GDP deflator, as lower inflation helps to increase real GDP. Lombard Street Research assumes that Chinese officials followed that approach.

Lessons from History: The Volcker Moment and the First Cap on CHF


SNB most important posts about the Swiss National Bank

Swiss National Bank: Extended Losses from 50% to 60% of Owners’ Equity

The latest data show that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has extended its losses to 60% owners' equity. By end of June, the capital is less than 34 billion CHF, as compared to 86 billion in December 2014. This implies a half-year loss of more than 50...

What Drives Government Bond Yields?

For us the five major drivers of government bond yields are: Inflation expectations and inflation: The by far most important criterion. High inflation expectations must be compensated via higher bond yields. The main driver behind inflation...

Swiss National Bank: Composition of Reserves and Investment Strategy

We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration. They shall be a template for the tactical asset allocation along these dimensions for other conservative asset managers - CHF holdings certainly excluded because the SNB...

The Euro Glut: The Summer 2015 Update

Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos was one of the first to use the term "euro glut". He anticipated a massive capital outflow from Europe that countered the huge European current account surplus. The Euro glut also led to the end of the EUR/CHF peg....

9. The Holy Grail of Long-Term Currency Movements: Crowther’s Balances and Imbalances of Payments

The former chief editor of "The Economist" Geoffrey Crowther published a great work on the development of balance of payments and current accounts over the long-term. It divides development into six phases, which are analogous to Shakespeare's seven...

SNB interventions June 2015

Latest update for June 2015: The pace of SNB intervention is slowing. Sight deposits, the indicator for SNB interventions, rise by 0.5 billion francs per week. April and May: Sight deposits rise by 1.5 billion CHF per week. Thanks to this intervention...

History of European Bond Yields

Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15% … in Euro Terms

George Dorgan shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement in the local currency. Effectively, Swiss real GDP rose by 15% in Euro terms, but fell slightly in CHF. He also emphasizes that Switzerland needs a big rebalancing of its economy,...

The two phases of CHF appreciation… and what is in between

We show the two phases or "two innings" of Swiss franc appreciation: The risk aversion phase and the high inflation phase. With the weakening of emerging markets and the strengthening of the United States in 2013/2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB)...