Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF

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USD/CHF strengthens above 0.8550 ahead of FOMC Minutes

2024-10-09

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2024-10-09

USD/CHF gains ground to near 0.8575 in Wednesday’s early European session.  Reduced bets of a jumbo Fed rate cut in November support the USD ahead of the FOMC Minutes.  The escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions might cap the pair’s upside.  The USD/CHF pair trades on a stronger note to around 0.8575 during the early European session on Wednesday. The firmer US Dollar (USD) amid diminishing odds for more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal...

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Japanese Yen remains on the front foot against USD; lacks bullish conviction

2024-10-08

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2024-10-08

The Japanese Yen recovers further from a two-month trough touched against the USD on Monday. Geopolitical tensions benefit the safe-haven JPY and exert downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. 

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SNB Sight Deposits: decreased by 0.9 billion francs compared to the previous week

SNB Sight Deposits vs. EUR/CHF
The sight deposits at the SNB decreased by 0.9 billion francs compared to the previous week.

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USD/CHF Price Prediction: Surges in bullish breakout from multi-week range

2024-10-04

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2024-10-04

USD/CHF breaks out of the range it has been straight-jacketed in for weeks.  The pair has probably started a new uptrend with odds now favoring the acquisition of bullish targets.  USD/CHF decisively breaks out of the top of its multi-week range, probably ending its protracted sideways market trend. A close clearly above 0.8540 and the range ceiling would cement bullish expectations.   The move means the pair has probably changed its short-term...

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Eighth Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Introduction of Kristin J. Forbes, ETH Zurich

2024-10-03

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2024-10-03

I am very pleased to welcome you to the eighth Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture. We are delighted and honoured that Professor Kristin Forbes accepted our invitation. I would like to thank the ETH Zurich and its President, Joël Mesot, for their hospitality.

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USD/CHF Price Prediction: Up leg almost reaches target and range high

2024-10-02

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2024-10-02

USD/CHF is rising within a range-bound market.  It has almost reached its target close to the top of the range high.  USD/CHF extends its gains as it unfolds an up leg within a range-bound market.  The move is underway and likely to reach the 0.8517 resistance level formed by multiple recent highs. A really bullish move could even see the pair reach the 0.8539 ceiling of the range. USD/CHF 4-hour Chart  USD/CHF is in a sideways trend. Given...

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Iran launches over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel

2024-10-02

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2024-10-02

Iran launched over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The attack began at 7:30 p.m. Israel time, after the US had warned just hours before that a strike was imminent. The Israel Defence Forces reported several of the missiles were intercepted, and reports said one person was killed in the West Bank, per Bloomberg. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vows to retaliate against Iran for a missile attack on Tuesday, but Tehran warned...

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SNB’s Schlegel: Can’t rule out negative rates, nothing is off the table

2024-10-01

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2024-10-01

Newly-minted Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Martin Schlegel hit newswires on Tuesday, cautioning that further rate cuts haven't been ruled out. The incoming Chairman of the SNB officially took the reins of Switzerland's central bank on early Tuesday, and has inherited a central bank still caught in the wake of last year's lopsided management of the merger between 167-year-old Credit Suisse and UBS. Key highlights The services sector...

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USD/CHF Price Prediction: Rising up within range-bound consolidation

2024-10-01

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2024-10-01

USD/CHF is rising within a range-bound market.  It has encountered resistance at a cluster of MAs but will probably continue higher. USD/CHF is rising up within its sideways range. It has reached a cluster of major Moving Averages which are providing firm resistance.  USD/CHF 4-hour Chart  The trend is neither up nor down but rather sideways and so the oscillating character of the market is likely to extend, given the principle that “the trend...

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SNB not yet ready to weaken the CHF – Commerzbank

2024-10-01

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2024-10-01

The figures published yesterday morning on the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) foreign exchange market operations in the second quarter confirmed what the statements made at the last press conference had already indicated, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. SNB reluctant to take action against the strong franc “For the time being, the SNB appears to be continuing to rely mainly on the key interest rate as its preferred instrument, with...

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Israel announces ground operation in Lebanon

2024-10-01

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2024-10-01

Israel announced a “limited” ground operation against Hezbollah targets in the border area of southern Lebanon, sending its soldiers across the border, per local news agency Aljazeera. Israeli warplanes carried out massive strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs after civilians were ordered to leave. At least 95 people were killed on Monday by Israeli attacks on Lebanon.  Market reaction At the time of press, the Gold price was up 0.02% on the day...

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Israeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Nasrallah

2024-09-30

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2024-09-30

Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has further fuelled geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and intensified the war at its border with Lebanon. The Iran-backed militant group says it will continue to fight, even as a growing number of senior Hezbollah figures have been killed, per CNN.

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Gold recovers after US inflation data misses expectations

2024-09-27

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2024-09-27

Gold rebounds at the end of the week after the release of US PCE inflation data comes out lower than expected. The data suggests a continuation of the Fed's monetary easing stance which is a positive factor for Gold. 

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USD/CHF: Still remains in the month-long range between 0.84 and 0.8550 – DBS

2024-09-27

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2024-09-27

The Swiss National Bank’s third interest rate cut did not push USD/CHF out of its month-long range between 0.84 and 0.8550, DBS’ FX analyst Philip Wee notes. SNB does not want EUR/CHF to find new lows “SNB lowered the policy rate by 25 bps to 1.00% and kept the door open for more easing in the coming quarters on its new forecast for inflation to decelerate to 0.6% in 2025 from 1.2% in 2024.” “In June, SNB projected a modest slowdown in inflation...

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USD/CHF Price Prediction: Unfolding down leg within range

2024-09-27

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2024-09-27

USD/CHF is trading lower within a range formed since August.  It is in a sideways trend and a decisive breakout would be required to give directionality.  USD/CHF continues trading up and down within a range. It is probably in a sideways trend, which given the principle that “the trend is your friend” is likely to endure. USD/CHF 4-hour Chart    USD/CHF is currently moving down within the range and it will probably reach at least as far as the...

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USD/INR drifts lower on improved risk appetite, softer US Dollar

2024-09-25

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2024-09-25

Indian Rupee gathers strength in Wednesday’s early European session.  Improved risk appetite and a weakening USD support the INR.  Investors await the US August New Home Sales and Fed’s Kugler speech on Wednesday.  The Indian Rupee (INR) edges higher on Wednesday. Improved risk appetite following China’s stimulus measures and the softer US Dollar (USD) boost the local currency on the day. Nonetheless, rising crude oil prices, outflows related to...

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Swiss National Bank meet this week – consensus expectation is for a 25bp interest rate cut

2024-09-23

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2024-09-23

The Swiss National Bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, from 1.25% to 1.0%.

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NZD/USD slumps from 0.6250 as US Dollar strives to gain ground

2024-09-20

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2024-09-20

NZD/USD drops from 0.6250 as the market sentiment turns cautious. The US Dollar bounces back ahead of Fed Harker’s policy announcement. Traders expect the Fed to reduce interest rates further by 75 bps in the remainder of the year. The NZD/USD pair faces selling pressure above the crucial resistance of 0.6250 in Friday’s North American trading hours. The Kiwi asset drops as the US Dollar (USD) attempts to gain ground above the annual low. The US...

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US Dollar set to post third consecutive week in red as dust from Fed meeting settles

2024-09-20

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2024-09-20

The US Dollar consolidates on Friday after weakening further on Thursday.. Traders have repriced the US Dollar amidst the Bank of Japan and Bank of England’s decisions to keep rates on hold.  The US Dollar Index falls outside its tight bandwidth, a sign that could dive lower next week.  The US Dollar (USD) trades broadly steady on Friday after Thursday’s sharp decline, when traders revalued the Greenback after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) joined...

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USD/CHF Price Prediction: Unfolding bullish leg within range

2024-09-20

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2024-09-20

USD/CHF has been oscillating since late August.  It is currently unfolding a bullish leg within that sideways trend. USD/CHF is trading within a range which began forming after the August lows. It is currently rising up within that range in a bullish leg which has reached about the midpoint of the consolidation. USD/CHF 4-hour Chart  USD/CHF is not in a bullish or bearish trend in the short-term but rather probably a sideways trend. Since it...

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