Category Archive: Emerging Markets

Main Author Win Thin
Win Thin
Win Thin is a senior currency strategist with over fifteen years of investment experience. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Prior to joining BBH in June 2007, he founded Mandalay Advisors, an independent research firm that provided sovereign emerging market analysis to institutional investors. He received an MA from Georgetown University in 1985 and a B.A. from Brandeis University 1983. Feel free to contact the Zurich office of BBH

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

Reserve Bank of India will introduce a new monetary policy tool. Moody’s raised the outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from stable to positive. Fitch cut Saudi Arabia’s rating a notch to A+. Moody’s cut the outlook on Turkey’s Ba1 rating from stable to...

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM FX had a stellar week, ending on a strong note in the aftermath of what the market perceived as a dovish Fed hike Wednesday. Every EM currency except ARS was up on the week vs. USD, with the best performers ZAR, TRY, COP, and MXN. There are some...

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

The PBOC increased the rates it charges for OMO and MLF by 10 bp. Indian Prime Minister Modi’s BJP won elections in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Czech central bank broached the possibility of a koruna cap exit later than mid-2017. Kuwait became the...

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX ended last week on a firm note despite the strong US jobs data, with the dollar succumbing to some “buy the rumor, sell the fact” price action.  We think the dollar should recover as the week begins, as it seems risky to be short/underweight...

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

North Korean banks subject to international sanctions have been banned from using Swift. Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld Parliament’s motion to impeach President Park. Singapore eased some property market curbs after a three-year decline in home...

Emerging Market Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX was mostly softer last week, though it ended the week firmer, buoyed by outsized MXN gains Friday. The Fed is sending very strong signals for a March hike, which should keep EM FX on its back foot. However, with the March 15 FOMC embargo coming...

Emerging Markets: What has Changed?

A Korean special prosecutor indicted Samsung chief Jay Y. Lee on bribery charges. Korean press is reporting that China has told its travel agents to halt sales of holiday packages to South Korea. Bulgaria’s interim government said it may apply to join...

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX ended last week on a soft note despite lower US rates. The dollar regained some traction that it lost over the course of the week, when markets pushed out Fed tightening beyond March. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also seemed to push out fiscal...

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

PBOC tweaked its process for determining the yuan reference rate. Singapore is reportedly studying measures to boost revenue, including higher taxes. Moody’s upgraded the outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from negative to stable. Nigerian President Buhari...

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX ended last week on a soft note, as some risk off sentiment crept back into the markets. The dollar gained broadly on Friday despite lower US rates as bonds rallied, the yen gained and equities sold off. Markit PMI for February Tuesday and FOMC...

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

Head of Samsung Group Jay Y. Lee was formally arrested on allegations of bribery, perjury, and embezzlement. The assassination of Kim Jong Un’s half-brother suggests the political situation in North Korea may be heating up. The Polish central bank is...

Brazil: Continuing Problems

The cruelest part, perhaps, of this economic condition globally is how it plays against type. In all prior cycles, economies of all kinds and orientations all over the globe would go into recession and then bounce right of it once at the bottom. It was...

Emerging Market Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX ended last week on a firm note. Falling US rates allowed many foreign currencies to gain some traction. This week, a heavy US data slate is likely to test the market’s convictions on the Fed, with January PPI, CPI, IP, and retail sales all...

Emerging Markets: What Has Changed

Reserve Bank of India signaled an end to the easing cycle. S&P moved the outlook on Indonesia’s BBB- rating from stable to positive. The ruling Law and Justice party in Poland may be backing off of plans to force banks to convert $36 bln in foreign...

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM ended the week on a firm note, with markets digesting what they perceived as a dovish Fed bias. We disagree, and continue to believe that markets are underestimating the Fed’s capacity to tighten this year. EM FX could continue gaining some traction...

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

Philippine Environment Department suspended 5 mines and closed 21 after a nationwide audit. The Turkish central bank raised its end-2017 forecast from 6.5% to 8% due largely to the weak lira. Central Bank of Turkey finally got around to releasing the...

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM was truly mixed last week, pulled in both directions by both idiosyncratic risks and global developments. MXN, BRL, and ZAR were the best performers on the week, while TRY, HUF, and RON were the worst. MXN gained despite signs that Trump will...

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

Press reports suggest that China’s central bank has ordered banks to limit new loans in Q1. Fitch revised the outlook on Nigeria’s B+ rating from stable to negative. Russia announced details of the FX purchase plan. Brazil’s central bank confirmed it...

Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended last week on a firm not, led by a huge MXN rally on Inauguration Day. We believe that the peso rally was largely driven by positioning and technicals, and so we view Friday’s gains as a correction since the fundamental outlook remains...

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

Prime Minister Phuc said Vietnam will ease the limits on foreign ownership of banks this year. Russia’s government is working on measures to limit ruble volatility, including possible FX purchases. Turkey’s central bank start auctioning FX swaps to...
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