Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Swiss Trade Balance Q4 2019: Secondary sector shows positive growth rates again

20.02.2020 - Secondary sector production rose by 1.3% in 4th quarter 2019 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover rose by 0.3%. This rise has continued without interruption since the 1st quarter 2017 but was slightly weaker in the reporting quarter. This is shown by provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Weekly View – Merkel under pressure

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2020: -1.0 percent YoY, unchanged MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in January 2020 compared with the previous month. The index stood at 100.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Petroleum products in particular saw higher prices, while pharmaceutical preparations became cheaper. Compared with January 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.0%.

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 4rd quarter 2019: 0.9percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition falls to 3.9percent

13.02.2020 - The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.9% between the 4th quarter 2018 and the 4th quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) declined from 4.6% to 3.9%. The EU's unemployment rate based also decreased from 6.6% to 6.2%.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in January 2020: +0.2 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

10.02.2020 - The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in January 2020 compared with the previous month, reach-ing 101.5 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.2% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Electric cars gain momentum: number of new registrations more than doubled in 2019

In 2019, 6 160 300 motor vehicles circulated on Swiss roads. This was 46 500 or 0.8% more than in the previous year. Three quarters of the entire fleet were passenger cars, including an increasing number of electric cars: of the 312 900 cars that were newly registered in 2019, 13 200 or 4.2% were purely battery operated.

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Swiss Retail Sales, December 2019: -0.4 percent Nominal and 0.1 percent Real

Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 0.4% in nominal terms in December 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.4% compared with the previous month.

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Swiss Trade Balance December 2019: Chemistry-pharma propels foreign trade 2019 to new heights

Despite a climate of uncertainty linked to trade tensions and the global economy, Swiss foreign trade grew in 2019, albeit at a slower pace. Exports increased by 3.9% to 242.3 billion francs while imports increased by 1.6% to 205.0 billion francs, the two directions of traffic thus reaching an historic peak. The trade balance closed with a record surplus of 37.3 billion francs.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in December 2019: -1.7 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM

17.01.2020 - The Producer and Import Price Index rose in December 2019 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Compared with December 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.7%. The average annualised inflation rate in 2019 was –1.4%.

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House View, January 2020

Our asset allocation is dominated by a wish to stay diversified in a fragile environment. Continued ‘noise’ around trade is likely to leave markets alternating between disappointment and hope. With this in mind, we have a neutral stance on government bonds and developed-market equities alike, although we still see select opportunities in equities and appreciate the protective function of safe-haven bonds.

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Pension funds have absorbed 2018 fall in stock market values

16.12.2019 - Overall, the pension funds have survived the sluggish stock markets of 2018. The negative net return on investments was largely offset by using 40% of the existing reserves for fluctuations in asset value. Underfunding rose by 20%. These are some of the final results from the Federal Statistical Office’s 2018 pension fund statistics.

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Swiss Retail Sales, November 2019: -0.7 percent Nominal and 0.0 percent Real

09.01.2020 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 0.7% in nominal terms in November 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in December 2019: +0.2 percent YoY, +0.4 percent MoM

07.01.2020 - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in December 2019 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.2% compared with the same month of the previous year. The average annual inflation reached +0.4% in 2019.These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Trade Balance November 2019: Foreign trade continues to contract

As in the previous month, cross-border flows of goods fell in both directions of traffic in November 2019. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports fell 1.7% on a month compared to 1.1% for imports. Swiss sales fell back to their level at the start of 2019, while admissions fell by almost a billion francs. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.2 billion francs.

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ECB: Preview of the review

We see the ECB remaining on hold throughout next year although we believe it could tweak some of the technical parameters of its toolkit. The first press conference of any new ECB President is an event in itself, and this time will be no different. Christine Lagarde's debut this week will understandably attract a lot of attention as the media and market participants scrutinise both form and substance.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2019: -2.5 percent YoY, -0.4 percent MoM

12.12.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in November 2019 by 0.4% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.5 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline was due in particular to lower prices for chemical and pharmaceutical products. Compared with November 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 2.5%.

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Switzerland Unemployment in November 2019: Up to 2.3 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.3 percent

Unemployment registered in November 2019 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of November 2019, 106,330 unemployed were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 4,646 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 2.2% in October 2019 to 2.3% in the month under review.

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Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows

Whereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.

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Core sovereign bonds 2020 Outlook

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in Novemeber 2019: -0.1 percent YoY, -0.1 percent MoM

03.12.2019 - The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in November 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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