Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Swiss Trade Balance Q3 2019: exports still rising thanks to chemistry-pharma

In the third quarter of 2019, foreign trade showed a positive trend: while exports rose by 0.9%, imports posted double growth (+ 1.8%). Both the first and the second have achieved a record quarterly result. The trade balance is closing with a surplus of 5.9 billion francs.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2019: -2.0 percent YoY, -0,3 percent MoM

15.10.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in September 2019 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.1 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products and scrap. Compared with September 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 2.0%.

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Switzerland Unemployment in September 2019: Unchanged at 2.1 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.3 percent

Registered unemployment in September 2019 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of September 2019, 99'098 unemployed people were enrolled in the Regional Employment Centers (RAV), 454 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 2.1% in the month under review.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in September 2019: +0.1 percent YoY, -0.1 percent MoM

02.10.2019 - The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in September 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.0 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Retail Sales, August 2019: +1.3 percent Nominal and -1.4 percent Real

Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 1.3% in nominal terms in August 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.6% compared with the previous month. Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 1.4% in August 2019 compared with the previous year.

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MMT, la nouvelle théorie en vogue à Washington

L’influence du ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ est susceptible d’augmenter dans les milieux économiques et politiques américains.La nouvelle théorie monétaire (Modern Monetary Theory/MMT), théorie macroéconomique défendue par des économistes hétérodoxes, commence à faire son chemin aux Etats-Unis.

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Euro/USD: things look pretty stable

Competing forces mean the two currencies could remain in a holding pattern for a while.The euro has remained relatively stable relative to the US dollar in the wake of the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve (Fed) September policy meetings. Growth and interest rate differentials, two key drivers for the EUR/USD rate, suggest things could stay this way.

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Swiss Trade Balance August 2019: the decline in exports continues

In August 2019, Swiss exports fell for the second month in a row. Down 4.3% year-on-year, they dropped below 19 billion francs. On the other hand, imports rose by 3.4% and thus regained their level at the beginning of the year. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 1.2 billion francs.

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Powell plays the ‘insurance’ card again

In spite of internal divisions, the Fed may go for a third rate cut in October and step in to alleviate pressure in repo market.The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, as widely anticipated. The new fed funds target range is 1.75%-2.00%. The interest rate on banks’ excess reserves was cut by 0.30% to 1.80%.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in August 2019: -1.9 percent YoY, -0,2 percent MoM

12.09.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in August 2019 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.4 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for rubber and plastic products as well as basic metals and semi-finished metal products. Compared with August 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.9%.

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Oil prices and the global economy

Low oil prices are good news for disposable income. But they also reflect the risk of oversupply in a world where growth indicators continue to point down.Events since Trump first threatened increased tariffs in 2017 provide a textbook example of how tariffs are transmitted through the global economy. First, the uncertainty they create hurts sentiment.

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Swiss National Bank – Between a rock and a hard place

We expect the Swiss National Bank to stay on hold at its next policy meeting, but a lot will depend on ECB and Fed meetings.Uncertainties and global slowdown are weighing on business investment in Switzerland, while household consumption growth has been slowing. Swiss GDP rose by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 (down from 0.4% in Q1), mainly due to spending in healthcare, housing and energy.

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“The Eurozone faces the worst combination of economic and systemic risk”

The past few months have been an exciting time for gold investors, as the precious metal has seen a spike in demand after serious economic concerns and geopolitical tensions unsettled the markets. Many mainstream analysts have pointed to a number of recent events, from the US-China trade war escalations to the inverted yield curve, to explain the recent gold rally.

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Switzerland GDP Q2 2019: +0.3 percent QoQ, -0.2 percent YoY

Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2019, after increasing by 0.4% (revised) in the previous quarter.1 The development of domestic and foreign demand was weak, as in other European countries, which had a particularly negative impact on the service sectors.

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Swiss Retail Sales, July 2019: +1.5 percent Nominal and +1.4 percent Real

Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.5% in nominal terms in July 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in August 2019: +0.3 percent YoY, Unchanged MoM

The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 2nd quarter 2019: number of persons in employment rises by 1.1 percent, unemployment rate based on the ILO definition falls to 4.2 percent

The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 1.1% between the 2nd quarter 2018 and the 2nd quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) fell from 4.6% to 4.2%. The EU unemployment rate based on the ILO definition decreased from 6.8% to 6.3%. These are some of the results from the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS).

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Brazilian real stands out in EM currency scorecard

Prospects for emerging-market currencies look cloudy. The currencies of countries with sound external buffers and limited exposure to global trade should fare relatively better than others.In recent months, the global environment has become more challenging for EM currencies. Trade tensions have increased and are weighing on economic activity. Commodity prices have also fallen.

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Swiss Trade Balance July 2019: foreign trade decelerates in July 2019

After shining the previous month, foreign trade turned red in July 2019. Despite a decline of 3.9% to 19.6 billion francs, exports had their second largest monthly result ever reached. Down 1.7%, imports were close to CHF 17 billion. The chemistry-pharma has greatly impacted both directions of the traffic. The trade balance is closing with a surplus of 2.7 billion francs.

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Emerging market sovereign debt update: yields are falling

Yields have fallen significantly in the EM sovereign bond space in local currency; USD movements will be key to watch for going forward.Yields have fallen impressively in the emerging market (EM) sovereign bond space in local currency, reaching 5.3% on 16 August, near their all-time low of 5.2% (in May 2013). This downward movement has been partly driven by the recent policy rate cuts of some EM central banks.

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