Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Switzerland Unemployment in November 2019: Up to 2.3 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.3 percent

Unemployment registered in November 2019 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of November 2019, 106,330 unemployed were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 4,646 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 2.2% in October 2019 to 2.3% in the month under review.

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Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows

Whereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.

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Core sovereign bonds 2020 Outlook

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in Novemeber 2019: -0.1 percent YoY, -0.1 percent MoM

03.12.2019 - The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in November 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Retail Sales, October 2019: +0.1 percent Nominal and +0.9 percent Real

02.12.2019 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.1% in nominal terms in October 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.9% compared with the previous month.

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Euro Area 2020 Macro Outlook

After an estimated 1.2% in 2019, we expect GDP growth of 1.0% in the euro area in 2020. Country wise, we expect more manufacturing-intense countries to underperform more domestically driven ones. Thus, we project weak growth of 0.7% in Germany and 0.4% in Italy in 2020, while we expect France and Spain to remain relatively resilient, growing by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively.

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Switzerland GDP Q3 2019: +0.4 percent QoQ, +1.1 percent YoY

Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.4% in the 3rd quarter of 2019, after increasing by 0.3% in the previous quarter. Exports of chemical and pharmaceutical products and energy were key contributing factors. In other areas, the impact of the subdued international environment was felt more strongly. The economic slowdown is being borne out on the whole.

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Swiss wage index 2019: Real and minimum wages increased by 1.1 percent and 0.8 percent respectively in 2019

26.11.2019 - The social partners signatory to Switzerland's main collective labour agreements (CLA) agreed a nominal rise in real wages of 1.1% and a nominal rise in minimum wages of 0.8% for 2019. Real wages increased by 0.5% at collective level and by 0.6% at individual level. These are the some of the results of the wage agreements survey carried out by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Employment Barometer in the Q3 2019: Employment higher than ever

26.11.2019 - Total employment rose in the third quarter by 1.3% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. At 5.137 million jobs it reached the highest level since the statistics began. In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 1.1%. The Swiss economy counted 6900 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+9.6%).

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Currencies: do it with style

Our scenario of ongoing global growth moderation and elevated political uncertainties should, we believe, support defensive currencies. We consider a currency ‘defensive’ if it is likely to remain resilient should global risk appetite falter.

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Swiss Trade Balance October 2019: exports fall but remain stable

In October 2019, Swiss foreign trade declined in both traffic directions. Exports fell sharply (-5.3%); however, they had jumped 8.8% the previous month, setting the bar very high. Imports fell 2.4%. Since the beginning of the year, foreign trade has thus revealed stagnation. The trade balance closes with a surplus of 2.4 billion francs.

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 3rd quarter 2019: 0.3percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition rose to 4.6percent

14.11.2019 - The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.3% between the 3rd quarter 2018 and the 3rd quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. The EU's unemployment rate decreased from 6.5% to 6.2%. These are some of the results of the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS).

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in October 2019: -2.4 percent YoY, -0,2 percent MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in October 2019 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.9 points (December 2015 = 100). Compared with October 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 2.4%.

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Switzerland Unemployment in October 2019: Up to 2.2 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.3 percent

Unemployment registered in October 2019 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of October 2019, 101'684 unemployed were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 2 586 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 2.1% in September 2019 to 2.2% in the month under review.

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Steady euro area growth and rise in core inflation

According to Eurostat’s preliminary figures, euro area GDP grew by 0.2% quarter on quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2 and in line with our expectations. Country wise, France, Italy and Spain grew at the same pace in Q3 as in Q2. In particular, household and investment spending grew at a solid pace in both France and Spain. The preliminary GDP figure for Germany will not be released until 14 November.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in October 2019: -0.3 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM

The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in October 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.8 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, September 2019: +0.6 percent Nominal and +0.9 percent Real

Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.6% in nominal terms in September 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.5% compared with the previous month. Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.9% in September 2019 compared with the previous year.

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KOF Economic Barometer: Stabilization at a low level

The KOF Economic Barometer has halted its downward movement, at least for the time being. At 94.7 points, however, the barometer is still well below its long-​term average. The Swiss economy is therefore likely to grow with below-​average rates in the upcoming months.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q3 2019: exports still rising thanks to chemistry-pharma

In the third quarter of 2019, foreign trade showed a positive trend: while exports rose by 0.9%, imports posted double growth (+ 1.8%). Both the first and the second have achieved a record quarterly result. The trade balance is closing with a surplus of 5.9 billion francs.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2019: -2.0 percent YoY, -0,3 percent MoM

15.10.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in September 2019 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.1 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products and scrap. Compared with September 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 2.0%.

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