Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Italy: Back to polls in Q4 2019?

Recent developments in Italy’s political landscape have increased the probability of early elections in Q4 2019, but the situation is not so straightforward. Last week, political tensions in Italy intensified as Matteo Salvini, the League’s leader triggered a no confidence vote against Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.PM Conte will address the Senate on 20 August.

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New monetary policies for new challenges

As central banks try (yet again) to bolster faltering growth and inflation, it is important to grasp how the ‘style’ and aims of monetary policy-making have changed over time and how they need to evolve in the future.The world is being disrupted by structural trends such as populism, demographic and climate change and technological innovation.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in July 2019: -1.7 percent YoY, -0.1 percent MoM

15.08.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell by 0.1% in July 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.6 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for scrap as well as petroleum and natural gas. Compared with July 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.7%.

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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2019: 0.7 percent Nominal and 0.7 percent Real

Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.7% in nominal terms in June 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays rose by 0.7% in June 2019 compared with the previous year.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2019: +0.3 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM

The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.5% in July 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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DATA ADDS TO THE CASE FOR ECB ACTION IN SEPTEMBER

Slowing economic momentum in the euro area means that we are lowering our GDP forecasts for this year. The euro area economy grew by 0.2% q-o-q in Q2, down from 0.4% in Q1.While 0.2% is still a decent pace of growth, concerns about the economy in the second half of the year have increased. Recent data have shown that the industrial slump has started to leave some marks on the domestic economy.

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World’s Central Banks End Pact That Limited Selling Of Gold

In a surprising announcement on Friday morning, the European Central Bank said the 21 signatories of the 4th Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) "no longer see the need for formal agreement" as the market has developed and matured, and as a result the signatories "decided not to renew the Agreement upon its expiry in September 2019."

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BREXIT UNCERTAINTY TO WEIGH ON YIELDS

UK sovereign bond (gilts) yields have fallen this year, with the 10-year yield dropping by 59 basis points (bps) to 0.69%1, in concert with other core sovereign bond yields. The Brexit saga, along with the global slowdown forcing many central banks to turn dovish, are the main factors behind this steep fall.

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Germany Struggles On

The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis would strike.

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DM credit caught between opposing forces

Despite the impressive year-to-date performance of corporate credit, we remain prudent about prospects in the remainder of 2019.Corporate bonds have posted stellar total returns year to date, thanks to the positive combination of lower sovereign yields and tighter credit spreads.

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Semaña grande for Sánchez

The interim Spanish prime minister, the socialist Pedro Sánchez, will aim to form a government this week. Outside the political noise, the Spanish economy continues to do well.April’s elections in Spain resulted in a fragmented parliament, making the formation of a government complicated.

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Euro area manufacturing is not out of the woods

Industrial production rebounded in May. But a closer look shows that the improvement was narrowly spread, and euro area manufacturing faces numerous challenges ahead.After two consecutive months of contraction, euro area industrial production (IP, excluding construction) rose by 0.9% month on month (m-o-m) in May, above consensus expectations.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q2 2019: the positive trend continues to export

In the second quarter of 2019, exports increased by 1.4% and imports by 0.2%. The two traffic departments have thus set a record quarterly result. The trade surplus, on the other hand, stood at 6.8 billion francs.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2019: -1.4 percent YoY, -0,5 percent MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in June 2019 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products, petroleum and natural gas as well as basic metals and semi-finished metal products. Compared with June 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.4%.

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Powell’s Congressional testimony sets the scene for rate cut

The Fed will likely cut rates by 25 basis points on 31 July, with a similar cut possible as early as September.During his testimony before the House of Representatives on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell repeated the dovish signals he gave at the Fed press conference in June, hinting at a rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 31 July.

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The ECB moves to keep euro bond yields down

Prospects of more ECB easing has contributed to an across-the-board rally in euro sovereign bonds yields and could help limit volatility in peripheral bonds.Since Mario Draghi in June signalled the European Central Bank’s (ECB) readiness to embark on more easing should the euro area economy fail to regain speed, euro sovereign bonds yields have fallen across the board, with the 10-year Bund yield briefly moving below -0.4% (the same level as the...

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A truce between Rome and Brussels

For now, Italy has avoided Brussels' Excessive Deficit Procedure. But tensions are set to rise again in the autumn when Italy presents its 2020 budget package.In its mid-year budget revision, the Italian government lowered its 2019 deficit target. The government pointed to better-than-expected revenues for this revision, including tax revenues that were EUR3.5bn higher than expected and an additional EUR2.7bn in other revenues (including dividends...

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in June 2019: +0.6 percent YoY, 0.0 percent MoM

04.07.2019 - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in June 2019 compared with the previous month, remaining at 102.7 (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.6% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Retail Sales, May 2019: -1.6 percent Nominal and -1.7 percent Real

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 1.6% in nominal terms in May 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.5% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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