Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2019: Foreign trade at a high level

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), Q1 2019
Swiss foreign trade saw a mixed evolution during the first half of 2019. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports fell slightly, still remaining above the 57 billion franc mark. Imports, on the other hand, continued to rise (+1 , 0%) to reach a record level of 51.2 billion francs. The trade balance closes with a surplus of 6.2 billion francs.

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Swiss Policy Mix Review

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

Swiss Government Debt, 1990 - 2018
The Swiss federal budget is governed by a strict expenditure rule, which is enshrined in the Constitution. Since its introduction, the ratio of public debt-to-GDP has been significantly reduced, falling back to its early-90’s level. At the close of 2018, the Swiss federal budget registered a significant surplus of CHF 2.9 billion, compared with budget projections for a surplus of CHF 295 million.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in March 2019: -0.2 percent YoY, +0.3 percent MoM

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, March 2019
15.04.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index increased in March 2019 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 102.2 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with March 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.2%.

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Switzerland: Lower growth, lower inflation

2019-04-15

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2019-04-15

Swiss Quarterly GDP Growth, 2007-2018
Growth and price rises should moderate in 2019.The Swiss economy posted impressive GDP growth in 2018, although there was significant divergence between strong growth in the first half and stagnation in the second. Overall, we expect Swiss GDP to expand by 1.3% in 2019, down substantially from 2.5% in 2018. Risks to our growth outlook for Switzerland are tilted to the downside.

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Limited room for Swiss franc depreciation

2019-04-12

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2019-04-12

Swiss Goods & Services, Investment and Reserve Assets
Even should global economic momentum stabilise in the coming months and political risks abate, the franc still has important structural underpinnings.The Swiss franc has been supported by a structural current account surplus and by reduced investment flows out of Switzerland since the 2008 financial crisis. In addition, the decline in global yields since the Fed’s dovish shift early this year has rendered interest rate differentials less...

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Getting ready for tiering

2019-04-11

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2019-04-11

Aggregate Cost of Negative Policy Rates for Euro Area Banks, 2014-2019
ECB officials have hinted at policy measures aimed at reducing the cost of negative rates for the banking sector, including a tiered system of bank reserves.Although back in 2016 the European Central Bank (ECB) ruled out tiering of bank reserves to mitigate the side effects of negative rates, the situation has since changed, and it could be implemented eventually if policy rates were to remain negative into 2020.

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Transport costs have increased by 4 percent within five years

2019-04-10

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2019-04-10

Costs of transport by transport mode, 2015
In 2015, transport in Switzerland generated economic costs of around CHF 90 billion. This was 4% more than in 2010. Aviation (+14%) and rail transport (+12%) recorded the largest increases. In comparison, costs for motorised road transport remained rather stable (+2%) and accounted for four fifths of the total transport costs. None of the various transport user groups fully funded the generated costs themselves.

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Q&A on European Parliament elections

2019-04-04

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2019-04-04

European Institutions
European Parliament elections, to be held between 23 and 26 of May, will be a key political event in Europe. However, we expect limited short-term impact, given the European Parliament's limited ability to set Brussels' agenda.European Parliament (EP) elections will be a key political event in Europe, a form of ‘midterm election’ in which the electorates can state their approval or disapproval of their respective national governments. 

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in March 2019: +0.7 percent YoY, +0.5 percent MoM

2019-04-02

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2019-04-02

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, March 2019
The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% in March 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Retail Sales, February 2019: -0.2 percent Nominal and +0.3 percent Real

2019-04-01

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2019-04-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, February 2019
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.2% in nominal terms in February 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.2% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Germany: signs of rebound ?

2019-03-26

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2019-03-26

German IFO Indices 2010-2019
German growth may remain subdued in H1 2019, before picking up somewhat in H2 2019 as some near-term risks dissipate.Germany’s leading indicator, the Ifo index, rose in March, driven by an increase in both sub-components: current assessment and expectations.

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Swiss Trade Balance February 2019: New Peak of Exports

2019-03-20

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2019-03-20

Switzerland Trade Balance, February 2019
In February 2019, like the previous month, seasonally-adjusted exports increased (+ 2.3%), reaching a record level of 19.4 billion francs. On the other hand, imports fell by 1.2% in one month to 17.4 billion francs. The trade balance shows a surplus of 2.0 billion francs.

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Brexit update: UK parliament opts for an extension

2019-03-18

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2019-03-18

GBP/USD Exchange Rate 2018-2019
After an eventful week in parliament, the Brexit ball is set to keep rolling as MPs move to extend the 29 March deadline.The British Parliament concluded a series of votes on Brexit this week with an intention to extend the 29 March Brexit deadline. What remains unclear at this point is whether the UK will seek a short (two months) or a longer extension (two years).

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Euro slides against the dollar on ECB dovishness

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

EUR-USD and 10-year Real Rate Differential 2014-2019
The euro has declined further against the dollar but should strengthen over next 12 monthsThe euro fell to a 20-month low against the US dollar following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March policy meeting, given the revised forward guidance that suggests that the interest rate differential is unlikely to provide much upside to the euro in the next few months.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in February 2019: -0.7 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, February 2019
The Producer and Import Price Index increased in February 2019 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.9 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with February 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.7%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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ECB Forward Guidance: the Devil is in the Detail

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

ECB Policy Rates, 2006 - 2019
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new long-term refinancing package for banks (called TLTRO-III) and made clear that interest rates would not be raised this year. While these measures were expected, they have come earlier than we thought.

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German Economy Set to Recover

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

German Government Budget Balance, 2002 - 2018
Germany’s economy weakened significantly in the second half of 2018. External headwinds remain strong and, in an environment where monetary-policy ammunition remains limited, all eyes have shifted towards German fiscal policy, especially as the country has generated significant budget surpluses since 2011.

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Downturn Rising, German Industry

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

US Treasury Yield Curve, Aug 2007 - Jan 2019
You know things have really changed when Economists start revising their statements more than the data. What’s going on in the global economy has quickly reached a critical stage. This represents a big shift in expectations, a really big one, especially in the mainstream where the words “strong” and “boom” couldn’t have been used any more than they were.

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Watch Europe – Free Pass for the Elliott Wave European Financial Forecast

2019-03-09

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2019-03-09

Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX, Daily
Europe at an Important Juncture. European economic fundamentals have deteriorated rather noticeably over the past year – essentially ever since the German DAX Index topped out in January 2018. Now, European stock markets have reached an important juncture from a technical perspective.

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Not Buying The New Stimulus

2019-03-08

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2019-03-08

ECB GDP Projections, March 2016 - 2019
What just happened in Europe? The short answer is T-LTRO. The ECB is getting back to being “accommodative” again. This isn’t what was supposed to be happening at this point in time. Quite the contrary, Europe’s central bank had been expecting to end all its programs and begin normalizing interest rates.

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