Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
My articlesAbout meMy books
Follow on:TwitterFacebookSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs

Rise in Bund yield will be limited

2018-06-22

by

2018-06-22

Euro Area Composite PMI and Germany 10-year Bund Yield, 2015 - 2018
With the faltering in euro area business sentiment since February, the Italy-led sell-off of risk assets at the end of May and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish meeting in June, we are revising our year-end forecast for the German 10-year Bund yield from 0.9% to 0.6%, as we hinted we might do in a previous note.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance May 2018: Foreign trade overcomes stagnation

2018-06-21

by

2018-06-21

Switzerland Trade Balance, May 2018
After stagnating in previous months, exports rose in May 2018. Seasonally adjusted exports rose 0.9% in one month. Imports were more dynamic, at + 3.8%. Chemistry-pharma and the vehicle sector generated 90% of growth in both traffic directions. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.3 billion francs.

Read More »

Tourist accommodation in 2017: supplementary accommodation recorded growth in overnight stays of close to 7 percent

2018-06-19

by

2018-06-19

Monthly overnight stay share of the hotel industry and parahotelie in 2017
In 2017, supplementary accommodation posted a total of 15.9 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 6.9% compared with 2016. With 10.8 million units, Swiss visitors represented more than two-thirds of demand (68.3%), i.e. a rise of 7.0%. Foreign visitors registered a 6.6% increase with 5.0 million units. Among this clientele, European visitors generated the most overnight stays with a total of 4.2 million (+8.4%).

Read More »

European cars at a crossroad

2018-06-18

by

2018-06-18

European Union: New car registrations 2010-2018
Falling momentum in new car sales, together with the threat of US tariffs is adding to the uncertainty facing the European car industry.Last weekend’s G7 summit in Canada ended badly, with President Trump withdrawing his support for the summit’s final statement. Heightening tensions between Europe and the US are Trump’s hints that the White House is considering import tariffs on cars and car parts.

Read More »

Union européenne. Les chiffres de la dette. LHK

2018-06-17

by

2018-06-17

Le volume cumulée d’endettement de l’UE atteint en 2017 le chiffre respectable de 12, 46664 billions d’euros (à ne pas confondre avec le billion américain!). - Cela revient à un endettement cumulé de 12 466 640 000 000 euros, soit 12 trillions d’euros (référence de mesure US)

Read More »

Swiss Unemployment Continues to Fall

2018-06-16

by

2018-06-16

Swiss-unemployment
The number of registered unemployed in Switzerland dropped by 9% in May 2018 to a rate of 2.4%, down from 2.7% in April, according to a report by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). The rate in May 2018 was 22% lower than in May 2017.

Read More »

Swiss wage index 2017: Nominal wage increase of 0.4percent in 2017 – real wages decrease by 0.1percent

2018-06-15

by

2018-06-15

Development of nominal wages to the consumer prices and real wages 1990-2017
The Swiss nominal wage index rose by +0.4% on average in 2017 compared with 2016. It settled at 101.1 points (base 2015 = 100). Given an average annual inflation rate of +0.5%, real wages registered a decrease of -0.1% (101.0 points, base 2015 = 100) according to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

Credit Spreads: Polly is Twitching Again – in Europe

2018-06-14

by

2018-06-14

Polly
The famous dead parrot is coming back to life… in an unexpected place. With its QE operations, which included inter alia corporate bonds, the ECB has managed to suppress credit spreads in Europe to truly ludicrous levels.

Read More »

Tourist Accommodation in the Winter Season 2017/2018: Growth in Overnight stays in Switzerland

2018-06-13

by

2018-06-13

Hotels and health resorts: Monthly development of overnight stays 2014 - 2018
The Swiss hotel industry registered 16.5 million overnight stays during the winter tourist season (November 2017 to April 2018), i.e. an increase of 4.6% (+724 000) compared with the same period of the previous year. With a total 8.7 million overnight stays, foreign demand grew by 5.6% (+460 000). Domestic demand rose by 3.5% (+264 000) reaching 7.8 million units.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2018: +3.2 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

2018-06-13

by

2018-06-13

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, May 2018
The Producer and Import Price Index increased in May 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.0 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with May 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.2%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

ECB gets ready to make the leap

2018-06-12

by

2018-06-12

ECB Policy Rate, Jan 2018 - June 2018
The ECB has had essentially two options going into the June meeting: either a dovish decision but a hawkish communication (hinting at an imminent QE tapering), or a hawkish decision but a dovish communication (counterb alancing a tapering announcement with dovish sweeteners).

Read More »

Europe chart of the week-German new orders

2018-06-11

by

2018-06-11

Germany: three measures of new factory orders 2011-2018
German new orders were weak across the board in April, contracting for a fourth consecutive month and by a larger-than-expected 2.5% m-o-m following a downwardly-revised 1.1% drop in March. As a result, total manufacturing orders are off to an extremely weak start in Q2 (-3.3% q-o-q after -2.2% q-o-q in Q1). What is more, the decline in demand for German goods in April was fairly broad-based across countries and sectors.

Read More »

Europe’s Woes Multiply

2018-06-08

by

2018-06-08

The Markit group that provides many of the PMI surveys noted with today's reports that the eurozone outlook has "darkened dramatically." This makes for a poor backdrop for the ECB, which meets next week. However, with price pressures recovering from the Easter-related distortions, the ECB is still on track to finish its asset purchases at the end of the year. This seems largely taken for granted.

Read More »

Switzerland Unemployment in May 2018: Down to 2.4percent from 2.5percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.6percent

2018-06-07

by

2018-06-07

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a., Jul 2013 - Jun 2018
Registered Unemployment in May 2018 - According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, at the end of May 2018, 109'392 unemployed people were enrolled in the Regional Employment Centers (RAV), 10'389 fewer than in the previous month.

Read More »

Swiss Consumer Price Index in May 2018: +1.0 percent YoY, +0.4 percent MoM

2018-06-06

by

2018-06-06

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, May 2018
The consumer price index CPI) increased by 0.4% in May 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 1.0% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

Espagne, victime des crises, de grands travaux inutiles, et de la… corruption. Nicolas Klein

2018-06-05

by

2018-06-05

Dans le contexte morose initié en 2008, l’Espagne était considérée (et l’est encore par beaucoup) comme un « pays à risque » au regard de la rapide dégringolade qu’elle a connue à la suite de la crise des subprimes aux États-Unis d’Amérique. Entre 2007 et 2011, le produit intérieur brut espagnol a reculé de 5 % tandis que le nombre de demandeurs d’emploi passe de 1,7 million à 4,2 millions.

Read More »

Europe chart of the week – Spanish growth

2018-06-05

by

2018-06-05

Spain GDP and EC Economic Sentiment Index, 2006 - 2018
This week saw the final release of Spanish GDP growth for Q1. The economy again managed to post robust growth, the highest among the four largest euro area economies (+0.7% q-o-q versus 0.4% q-o-q for the euro area). The breakdown of figures showed that domestic demand was once again the main growth driver.

Read More »

Employment barometer in the Q1 2018: Fastest growth in employment in industry for 10 years

2018-06-04

by

2018-06-04

Switzerland Employment Level 2013 - Q1/2018
In the 1st quarter 2018, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 1.6% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.6% with previous quarter, +1.7% in full-time equivalents). The Swiss economy counted 77 000 more jobs and 11 000 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

Read More »

Euro area inflation close to ECB target in May

2018-06-03

by

2018-06-03

Euro Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices Inflation and ECB Staff Projections
Today’s release of euro area flash HICP surprised to the upside both in terms of headline inflation (which surged from 1.2% to 1.9% y-o-y in May, above consensus expectations of 1.6%) and, crucially, in terms of core inflation (HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco rose from 0.7% to 1.1%).

Read More »

Spain Snap Elections in Sight

2018-06-02

by

2018-06-02

Spain Politics in General Election
Political instability in Spain has added to turmoil in other peripheral countries. The situation is not comparable with the one that Italy is experiencing at the moment, but since it comes at the same time it is increasing market volatility. Last Friday, Spain’s main oppositionparty, the Socialist party (PSOE) filed a no confidence vote against Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. The debate will start on May 31 with a vote probably on June 1.

Read More »
Page 112345...1020...Last »