Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

GDP level corrected from 2.8 percent to 3.6 percent between 1995 and 2017 following revision of the national accounts

The results of the national accounts published by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) have been revised upwards. New data series are available for the period 1995 to 2019. This revision was carried out in collaboration with the sector responsible for quarterly estimates at SECO, provides methodological improvements and takes into consideration new data.

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Weekly View – No breakfast at Tiffany’s

The impact of political tensions on business is ever more apparent: LVMH of France will not, after all, proceed with the purchase of Tiffany of the US. If, as seems likely, the hand of the French government was involved, this is solid evidence that political sensitivities are increasingly influencing cross-border deals – something that is likely to remain the case just as M&A in general has been declining.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in August 2020: -3.5 percent YoY, -0.4 percent MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in August 2020 by 0.4% compared with the previous month, reaching 97.9 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline was due in particular to lower prices for chemical and pharmaceutical products. Compared with August 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 3.5%.

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House View, September 2020

A surge in new covid-19 cases in a number of countries has interrupted progress towards normality, yet the effects of the virus are becoming more manageable and positive world H2 growth is achievable.

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Weekly View – Election nerves increase

The sell-off in stocks last week showed a certain nervousness about the sharp run-up in tech stocks and the role of big option bets. Indeed, prices in some instances had risen too fast. But this was a technical correction. With the US tech titans generating free cash flow, we do not believe we are facing a repeat of the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000. 

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in August 2020: -0.9 percent YoY, 0.0 percent MoM

The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.9% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, July 2020: 3.4 percent Nominal and 4.1 percent Real

Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 3.4% in nominal terms in July 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.7% compared with the previous month.

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Weekly View – The Last Samurai

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.We are in the midst of a decisive elections season, from the surprise, poll-defying victory of the conservative coalition in Australia and Indian general elections last weekend to the European parliament elections in the week ahead.

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Rise of 380 000 jobs in tertiary sector between 2011 and 2018

28.08.2020 - In 2018, almost 70 000 additional jobs were counted in Switzerland, bringing the total to more than 5.2 million. As in the previous years, the tertiary sector, which accounted for some 4 million jobs in 2018, contributed greatly to this increase with a +1.5% rise in employment.

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Switzerland GDP Q2 2020: -8.2 percent QoQ, -9.3 percent YoY

Switzerland’s GDP fell by –8.2 % in the 2nd quarter of 2020, after decreasing by –2.5 % (revised) in the previous quarter.* Domestic economic activity was severely restricted in the wake of the pandemic and the measures are taken to contain it. The global economy also plunged into a sharp recession. However, Switzerland’s GDP decline remained limited in an international comparison.

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Die KOF – unabhängige Forschung seit 1938

Die KOF bewegt sich am Puls der Wirtschaft. Sie erstellt Konjunkturprognosen und forscht zu Themen wie Arbeitsmarkt, Innovationen und Globalisierung. Erfahren Sie mehr über das älteste Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut der Schweiz.

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Swiss labor force survey in the 2nd quarter of 2020: labor supply

The number of employed persons in Switzerland fell by 1.6% (–82 000) between the 2nd quarter 2019 and the 2nd quarter 2020. Furthermore, the actual weekly hours per employed person declined by 9.5%.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in July 2020: -3.3 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in July 2020 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 98.3 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with July 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 3.3%.

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Pictet Perspectives — Driving without GPS

With the global economy picking up and markets rallying hard since late March, where do the best investment opportunities lie? PWM’s head of investment presents the case for US growth stocks and European cyclicals, particularly those linked to the ‘green’ transition. And there are ways for playing the volatility that inevitably lies ahead.

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House View, August 2020

We have revised up our euro area GDP forecast for 2020 to -8.5%, mainly due to improving data in Germany, which is better positioned to recover rapidly from the downturn than its European peers. Meanwhile, the US economy has shown signs of flatlining amid escalating covid-19 cases in the South. Consumer confidence has taken a hit, while weekly unemployment claims have been rising again.

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Swiss Consumer sentiment makes a strong recovery but remains below average

Consumer sentiment in Switzerland has largely recovered from its slump in April. Expectations regarding general economic development have improved, but those regarding the labour market remain very negative. Accordingly, respondents believe that now is not a good time to make major purchases.

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Record fall in overnight stays in first half of 2020

Record fall in overnight stays in first half of 2020The hotel sector registered 9.9 million overnight stays in Switzerland in the first half of 2020, representing a decline of 47.5% (– 8.9 million overnight stays) compared with the same period a year earlier. With a total of 4.1 million overnight stays, foreign demand dropped by 60.1% (– 6.1 million).

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Horizon 2020: long-term investing in a world marked by pandemic

The sudden, violent recession triggered by this year’s covid-19 outbreak provides further impetus to pre-existing economic and market dynamics.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2020: -0.9 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM

The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in July 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.9% compared with the same month of the previ-ous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2020: 0.4 percent Nominal and 1.1 percent Real

Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.4% in nominal terms in June 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 3.6% compared with the previous month.

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