Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Weekly view – Fog warning

Coronavirus cases in the US are rising and high frequency data in the US such as retail foot traffic and employee working hours have flatlined. Meanwhile, in Q2 results, USD36 bn in trading and fixed-income revenues managed to make up for higher loan provisions for US banks.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q2 2020: historic decline in exports and imports

Swiss foreign trade recorded a record decline in the second quarter of 2020. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports plunged by 11.5% compared to the previous quarter and imports even by 16.0%. This result stems from the traffic collapse recorded in April in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, with May and June having regained some color. The trade balance closed with a record surplus of 9.6 billion francs.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2020: -3.5 percent YoY, +0.5 percent MoM

14.07.2020 - The Producer and Import Price Index rose in June 2020 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 98.1 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products as well as petroleum and natural gas. Compared with June 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 3.5%.

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No lack of foreign tourism demand in 2019

07.07.2020 - Foreign demand was strong in 2019. The income side of the tourism balance of payments grew, reaching a record level of CHF 17.8 billion. At the same time, people living in Switzerland did not increase their expenditure when travelling abroad, despite price conditions that were more favourable. The tourism balance of payments was negative at CHF -798 million, according to initial estimates from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Retail Sales, May 2020: 5.6 percent Nominal and 6.6 percent Real

Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 5.6% in nominal terms in May 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 30.2% compared with the previous month.

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Weekly View – Alive and kicking

In spite of renewed fears of coronavirus clusters in Beijing, data last week suggested the more consumer-oriented sides of the Chinese economy were tracking improvements in industry, with a year-on-year increase in auto sales in May. UK retail sales were also encouraging, but the biggest surprise came from the US where May’s 18% rise in retail sales month on month was double analysts’ expectations.

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Pictet & Mater — Furnishing a sustainable future (Abridged version)

Long before environmentalism became a popular concern, Henrik Marstrand created Mater in 2006, a Danish furniture company that prides itself on timeless design with sustainability at its core. Designing and producing all their own pieces, Marstrand’s new line of outdoor chairs and tables was based on original designs from Nanna and Jørgen Ditzel and is made from recycled fishing nets and ropes. This initiative is helping to offset the five million...

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Weekly View – Reality check

The short-term pull-back in stock prices last week on the back of persistent virus concerns in the US and elsewhere shows the market remains jittery despite the massive run-up in prices since late March. May data from China showed a relatively fast rebound on the supply side of the economy, but a much slower take-off in consumption, suggesting a ‘reverse square root’ kind of recovery for economies rather than the ‘v’-shaped one markets have been...

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Swiss Trade Balance May 2020: signs of recovery in foreign trade

After its historic setback of the previous month, foreign trade recovered a few colors in May 2020. Imports posted a seasonally adjusted increase of 9.8% to 13.6 billion francs; however, they are still below their March 2020 level. Although exports fell again (-1.2%), they eased compared to April. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.8 billion francs.

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Pictet Perspectives Trailer



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Pictet Perspectives Trailer



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Supplementary accommodation: 0.7 percent increase in overnight stays in 2019, but decrease in demand for holiday homes

15.06.2020 - In 2019, supplementary accommodation posted a total of 16.7 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 0.7% compared with 2018. With 11.4 million units, Swiss visitors represented more than two-thirds of demand (68.6%), i.e. a rise of 2.4%. Foreign visitors registered a 2.8% decrease with 5.2 million units. With 4.4 million overnight stays (-3.8%), European visitors accounted for the majority of stays by foreign guests.

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Pictet — Perspectives: Near-Term Investment Themes and Challenges

Markets are pricing in fully several optimistic scenarios, yet there are attractive plays in investment grade credit and equities. Meanwhile, over the summer, we await a clearer picture on how realistic this optimism proves to be over the longer term. https://perspectives.group.pictet

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Pictet — Perspectives: Near-Term Investment Themes and Challenges

Markets are pricing in fully several optimistic scenarios, yet there are attractive plays in investment grade credit and equities. Meanwhile, over the summer, we await a clearer picture on how realistic this optimism proves to be over the longer term. https://perspectives.group.pictet

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2020: -4.5 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM

15.06.2020 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in May 2020 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 97.6 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for pharmaceutical and chemical products as well as for petroleum products. Compared with May 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 4.5%.

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Switzerland Unemployment in May 2020: rose to 3.4percent, seasonally adjusted rose to 3.4percent

Registered unemployment in May 2020 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 155,998 unemployed people were registered with the regional employment centers at the end of May 2020, 2,585 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 3.3% in April 2020 to 3.4% in the reporting month. Unemployment rose by 54,628 people (+ 53.9%) compared to the same month in the previous year.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in May 2020: -1.3 percent YoY, 0.0 percent MoM

04.06.2020 - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in May 2020 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.3 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –1.3% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Switzerland GDP Q1 2020: -2.6 percent QoQ, -1.3 percent YoY

Switzerland’s GDP fell by –2.6 % in the 1st quarter of 2020, after rising by +0.3% in the previous quarter. Due to the coronavirus pandemic and the measures to contain it, economic activity in March was severely restricted. The international economic slump also slowed down exports.

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Covid-19, la BNS pendant le confinement

L'économiste Liliane Held-Khawam, auteure du livre "Dépossession", interviewée par Christian Campiche pour infoméduse.ch, le 1er juin 2020.

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Weekly View – One country, two systems at risk

Last week, German chancellor Merkel delivered a surprise about-face when she and French president Macron announced a proposal for a EUR 500bn recovery fund in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The unprecedented plan involves the distribution of grants, rather than loans, to member states in economic need.

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