Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Swiss Consumer Price Index in August 2018: +1.2 percent YoY, Stable MoM

Neuchâtel, 4 September 2018 (FSO) - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August 2018 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.8 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 1.2% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

Swiss Retail Sales, July 2018: +0.3 percent Nominal and -0.3 percent Real

Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.3% in nominal terms in July 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.9% compared with the previous month.

Read More »

Italian 2019 draft budget: a bumpy road ahead

Tensions between Rome and Brussels could lead to significant market volatility before an agreement is found. September will be a key month for gauging the Italian government’s budgetary plans for 2019. The government has communicated neither a precise timeline for implementing the measures announced in its ‘contract for government’ nor a precise cost analysis for these measures.

Read More »

KOF Economic Barometer: Falling

In August 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly by 1.4 points to a new reading of 100.3. It thus now pints to a level that is only marginally above its long-term average. Accordingly, in the near future Swiss growth should hover around its average over the last ten years.

Read More »

Employment Barometer in the Q2 2018: Sharp Rise in Employment in Switzerland

In the 2nd quarter 2018, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 2.1% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.4% with previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 2.0%. The Swiss economy counted 14 000 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+22.6%) and the employment outlook indicator is also indicating an upward trend (+1.1%). These are some of the findings from...

Read More »

Euro Area PMIs: Still Little Good News Below the Surface

Although euro area flash PMI indices were roughly in line with expectations in August, some details were less positive than the headline numbers, suggesting that downside risks have not yet disappeared. True, at face value, the small rise in the euro area composite PMI index, from 54.3 in July to 54.4 in August, is consistent with resilient real GDP growth, close to the 0.4% q-o-q pace recorded in Q2.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance July 2018: Slowdown to a High Level

After stagnating the previous month, both exports and imports fell in July 2018. In seasonally adjusted terms, they fell by 3.0 and 2.8%, respectively. The decline in the chemicals-pharmaceuticals sector weighed on the result in both directions of the traffic. The trade balance is closing with a surplus of 1.2 billion francs.

Read More »

A trying time for euro

The euro has hit new lows against the US dollar. We are revising down our EUR/USD projections for the next few months.The euro broke to the downside from its tight trading range relative to the US dollar since the end of May. These new lows go against our expectations of a gradual appreciation of the single currency relative to the greenback in the second half of the year and indicate that we have underestimated the short-term risks related to the...

Read More »

London House Prices Fall At Fastest Rate Since Height Of Financial Crisis

– London house prices fall at the fastest annual rate since height of the financial crisis – London house prices fall in 5th month in row, worst falls since 2009 – London rents dropped at the fastest rate in eight years – ONS – Brexit, London property slump put brake on UK house price growth – Consumer spending declined in July as inflation increased

Read More »

Swiss Labour Force Survey in 2nd quarter 2018: Number of persons in employment rises by 0.7 percent, unemployment rate based on ILO at 4.6 percent

The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.7% in the 2nd quarter 2018 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. The unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) rose during the same period by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%. The EU's unemployment rate based on the ILO definition decreased from 7.6% to 6.9%.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in July 2018: +3.6 YoY, +0.1 MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index increased in July 2018 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.3 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for watches, petroleum and natural gas. Compared with July 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.6%.

Read More »

Switzerland Unemployment in July 2018: Unchanged at 2.4percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.6percent

Registered unemployment in July 2018 - According to SECO surveys, at the end of July 2018, 106,052 unemployed people were enrolled in the Regional Employment Centers (RAV), 527 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 2.4% in the month under review. Compared to the same month of the previous year, unemployment fell by 27,874 (-20.8%).

Read More »

Overnight Stays Increased by 3.8 percent in the First Half of 2018

The hotel sector registered 18.4 million overnight stays in Switzerland in the first half of 2018, representing an increase of 3.8% (+670,000 overnight stays) compared with the same period a year earlier. With a total of 10.0 million overnight stays, foreign demand rose by 4.6% (+444,000). Domestic visitors registered 8.3 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 2.8% (+226,000).

Read More »

Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2018: +1.2 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM

The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in July 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.8 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 1.2% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

TARGET-2 Revisited

Capital Flight vs. The Effect of QE. Mish recently discussed the ever increasing imbalances of the euro zone’s TARGET-2 payment system again in response to a few articles which played down  their significance. He followed this up with a nice plug for us by posting a comment we made on the subject. Here is a chart of the most recent data on TARGET-2 available from the ECB; we included the four largest balances, namely those of  Germany, Italy, Spain...

Read More »

Swiss Consumer Sentiment Falls Almost back to its Average

Consumer sentiment in Switzerland has almost dropped back to its long-term average. While consumers still expect a positive economic development, they are less optimis-tic than in recent quarters. Consumers' expectations regarding their own budget also remain subdued, while they adjusted their assessment of inflation upwards. Corre-spondingly, the likelihood of consumers making major purchases remains low.

Read More »

Swiss Retail Sales, June: +1.1 percent Nominal and +0.3 percent Real

Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.1% in nominal terms in June 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

Revising our euro area 2018 GDP growth forecast down

The cut to our growth forecast reflects slippage in euro area data.According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, euro area real GDP expanded by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 2018, below consensus expectations. This was the weakest growth in two years and is down slightly from GDP growth of 0.4% q-o-q in Q1.Following today’s GDP growth data and recent economic indicators, we have revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2018.

Read More »

KOF Economic Barometer, July: Remains Practically Unchanged

The KOF Economic Barometer only slightly moved in July. Compared to its June value, it decreased by 0.2 to 101.1 points. The current Barometer value still stands slightly above the long-term average of 100 points; it thus indicates a slightly above-average economic development in Switzerland in the coming months.

Read More »

French Q2 GDP growth marks time

A number of one-off factors hurt growth dynamics, but there are many reasons to think that expansion will pick up in the rest of this year. France is the first country in the euro area to publish Q2 GDP figures. The economy expanded by 0.2% q-o-q in Q2, the same pace as the previous quarter and below consensus expectations of 0.3%.

Read More »