Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

Warnings from Target Sink Stocks: What’s Next? REV | 3:00 on Markets & Money

(5/19/22) Target and Walmart's warnings about future earnings pulled the rug out from under stocks Wednesday, essentially reversing all of the previous gains, going back to last week. The data suggests a recession is near, if not already here. (We raised cash in anticipation of the worst.) The current level of resistance will be important for markets to break above in order to get the rally back on track. Negative money flows have improved,...

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The Market Reversal Episode (5/19/22): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Inves…

#Markets #Money #Investing

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Is the Reflex Rally Over?

Target and Walmart reporting less than expected earnings, and missing by a mile, as they cite higher price pressure and building inventories. This would suggest we have likely seen the peak of inflation, along with slower consumer activity--both are pre-recessionary indicators that are also disinflationary.

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Consumer Sugar-rush is Over – What To Do Now?

(5/18/22) What misses by Amazon, Target, and WalMart are telling us about the state of the consumer, which is the backbone of the economy. Markets remain in a well-defined downtrend, but are working off an over-sold status. All the free money that came into the economy is gone--here comes the post-sugar rush crash. The part of Keynesian Economics that everyone misses; Why proprietary investment vehicles might not be a good idea: No transferability...

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How to Use Market Rally to Reduce Risk | 3:00 on Markets & Money

(5/17/22) Stocks are looking to open sharply higher following yesterday's consolidation and advance. This makes three "green" days in a row, providing more lift to markets in the short term. Our initial target on SPY is still 416--at the 20-DMA, the first level of resistance, and also part of the current downtrend. The next level up will be 430 or 431. We will want to use any rally to dell into and reduce risk. If markets are able to...

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The Year of Shortages & High Inflation

(5/17/22) Congress is investigating UFO's while the economy is running off the rails and inflation rages. Market performance and "cash on the sidelines;" the worst start to the year for markets since The Great Depression; the Year of Shortages and high prices now includes a baby formula shortage that was self-inflicted; negative sentiment is so prevalent, it has crept into consumer behavior; why Ben Bernanke didn't want to...

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What do Kim Kardashian & The Market Have in Common? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

(5/16/22) Markets put in a big bottom last week--at least for the short term. Even though markets finished down for the day on Thursday, they rallied back above the open, setting up a green candle, and establishing a test of the level at three standard-deviations from the 50-DMA. Friday's subsequent rally pushed the index up to within two standard-deviations from the 50-DMA, and got close to triggering a money flow buy signal in a market that was...

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Time to Reconsider Bitcoin?

(5/16/22) Markets' performance last week would tend to set-up for an opportunity to rally--but will it stick? Analysts' earnings estimates are still way too high; comparing nuclear explosions, road trip cuisine vs gas station food; what we don't want to see today. Markets are doing their best to frustrate investors; use the coming rally to correct mistakes. The saga of Chicken Salad Chick; Why Joe Biden's Deficit Reduction plan will fail; fun with...

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Cryptocoins Under Pressure | 3:00 on Markets & Money

(5/12/22) Markets remain under pressure after April CPI numbers show hotter-than-expected inflation. But looking at longer-term charts can give a better understanding of where we've been...and where we're going. Are we over-bought, or over-sold, and where is the downside risk, and where is the potential support, moving forward? The S&P is currently 3-standard-deviations below the 50-week Moving Average, and money flow indicators are also...

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Inflation: The Hotter the Better?

(5/12/22) (5/12/22) Inflation is running hotter than the Fed would like; the major indexes are masking the reality of underlying stocks' plight; dealing with margin debt is playing a role in market's performance; 4 out of 8 CPI sectors were elevated in April--oddly, Energy was not one of them. Month/Month and Year/Year comparisons actually showed a decline; former Fed'er Bill Dudley continues to call out the FOMC for its "handling" of the...

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Will CPI Be Sticky? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

(5/11/22) The CPI inflation print for April could affect markets today--will it come in softly, or reflect a stronger print from April 2021. If inflation wanes, will the Fed be less aggressive? If so, that's an encouraging sign for growth stocks in particular. The market Tuesday did try to rally, but failed; markest are still deeply over-sold on every metric we track, so a lot of fuel remains for a rally. Any good news on inflation would tend to...

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Beware of Recency Bias!

(5/11/22) Utopia vs Dystopia is like theory vs reality: Why the Government's solution for fighting inflation never works; Should you buy the dip? Why buy the market bottom is a bear trap for investors; the best investment I ever made; what advisors are telling people that's good and bad; recency bias and investor psychology; contrarian investing strategies; Benchmarking progress over a two-year span; Why you should get out of the market now....

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Sentiment is So Bearish, It’s Bullish | 3:00 on Markets & Money

(5/10/22) Markets have been deeply over-sold, with sentiment so bearish, it's bullish. Be careful not to throw in the towel, just yet. Markets did sell-off all day Monday, resulting in one of the top-five leading sell-off days in history for retail investors. At three standard deviations below the mean, the S&P is trading 11% below the 200-DMA. But just last year, we were talking about the S&P trading 12% above the mean, setting up for a...

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The Relentless Fed

(5/10/22) Monday's market Capitulation actually smelled like margin calls coming home to roost; as financial conditions continue to tighten, the Fed is relentless in its squeeze. The inflation now was caused by "free" money (which isn't); the best course for the Fed now is to do nothing, and allow inflation to run its course in curing itself. Low volatility begets high volatility, and investor sentiment now is so bearish...it's bullish....

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Are We Near the Bottom? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

(5/9/22) Concerns over Fed speakers and Inflation numbers releases this week, as markets begin trading deep in the red; will we see inflation's peak--and with that, a softer stance by the Fed? Markets are starting the week down three standard-deviations from the 50-DMA. Professional, Retail, and Positioning sentiment are all quite pessimistic across the board; technical indicators are over-sold on virtually every level. At this point, it's...

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What Will Inflation Tell Us This Week?

(5/9/22) The psychological pressure on investors created by inflation is very real, and makes folks prone to making mistakes. Inflation's interesting comparisons, April to April; Inflation numbers are not reflective of what we're actually living; Consumers' resort to credit card debt to pay bill. The metrics of inflation vs reality; the fallacy of a Fed "soft landing;" signs we are at or near inflation's peak; Rich Strike & Market...

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Financial Fitness Friday (5/6/22)

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The Truth About Life Insurance

0:47 - Worried About Government Over-reach? Want to Create a Super-Roth? Want a Tax-free Retirement Income? Want to Build a Judgement-Proof Estate? Want to Eliminate the Risk of Estate Taxes? 2:29 - Why do you have--or why consider--Life Insurance? 5:00 - Term Coverage--the "Alka Seltzer" of Insurance 5:35 - Term Life Pro's 7:54 - Term Life Con's 9:00 - Permanent Insurance Tax-Free Accumulation vs Roth IRA 9:55 - Term Life Insurance...

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No surprises from Fed – where do we go from here? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

(5/5/22) Jerome Powell's announced 50-basis-points rate hike was as expected--but the Fed added a dovish tone by slowing the rate of tapering on its balance sheet. With Professional and Retail investor sentiment at some of the lowest levels we've seen, and positioning very, very light in equities, the bit of good news was all Wall Street needed to stage a 3% rally, pushing up to resistance at the 20- and 50-DMA's. If markets go there, that's the...

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The Fed’s Silver Lining

(5/5/22) The Fed is raising rates by 50-basis-points, but tapering its balance sheet at a slower pace than expected, causing great jubilation on Wall Street, and a 3% rally after the announcement. The narrative the Fed feeds does not always comport with reality; how Jerome Powell "walks the line." Is the Fed looking at the economy in the right way? Economic data are telling a different story; is the market actually bottoming--or could it...

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