Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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S&P Earnings Record May Be A Warning

2026-05-02

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2026-05-02

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - Mag Earnings Accelerate Rally The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high Friday, capping a week in which the market did something remarkable: it largely stopped caring about Iran. That wasn't recklessness. It was earnings. Five of the Magnificent Seven reported this week, and the results …

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A Robot Economy: Who Gets Rich, Who Gets Left Behind

2026-05-01

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2026-05-01

Robots are coming to the economy. It is inevitable, really, and there is nothing that will stop it. At some point in the not-so-distant future, robots will infiltrate every aspect of our lives, from office work and manufacturing to service work and trade skills, and even your home. Here are some numbers for you. The …

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AI Spending Receipts: Four Tech Giants, Four Different Verdicts

2026-05-01

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2026-05-01

Wednesday’s mega-cap tech earnings produced one of the cleaner real-time experiments we've seen this cycle. Four hyperscalers reported. All four beat on revenue and earnings. All four committed to massive AI infrastructure spending. Yet the market reactions were wildly divergent: Alphabet surged 10% higher, while Amazon rose 0.8%, Microsoft fell 3.9%, and Meta fell 8.6%. …

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4/30/26 Fed Holds Rates as Powell Stays On

2026-04-30

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The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, but the bigger story may be what comes next. Powell announced he plans to remain on the Federal Reserve Board as a governor after his term ends—an unusual move that limits a potential board vacancy and keeps his influence in play. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine what this means for monetary policy, market expectations, and the timing of future rate cuts. #FederalReserve...

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Powells Coda: Dissension In The Ranks

2026-04-30

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2026-04-30

Presuming Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair is approved by the Senate, as is widely expected, yesterday's FOMC meeting was Jerome Powell's last as its Chair. However, he will stay on as a voting Governor. As he explains: Things that happened in the last 3 months left me no choice but to see them through … Continue reading...

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5-25-26 Lending Cycles & Real Estate Risk – David Zugheri Interview

2026-04-29

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What really drives lending cycles, and why do they always seem to end the same way? Lance Roberts and RealFin Capital founder, David Zugheri, break down how credit is created, why risk builds beneath the surface, and what happens when underwriting standards begin to loosen. From the origins of the RTC to today’s lending environment, we explore the structural forces that shape booms, busts, and the transfer of wealth across the economy. We also...

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4-29-26 Oil Doesn’t Peak When The Strait Reopens — It Peaks Before $SPX $USO

2026-04-29

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Commodity markets are forward-looking. Traders don’t wait for events to happen—they price in expectations early. So if the market believes reopening is coming, prices top out in advance. Most people think oil prices are driven mainly by physical supply/demand—but that’s only part of the story. – A small portion = real producers hedging (locking in prices for future delivery) – A tiny portion = retail traders – A huge portion = speculators trading...

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4-29-26 Q&A Wednesday: Markets & Your Money

2026-04-29

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Markets continue to push higher, but the underlying story is getting more nuanced. Leadership is narrowing, valuations are stretched, and investors are weighing strong momentum against rising risks—from interest rate uncertainty to geopolitical developments and shifting economic data. Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff open the chatroom to tackle your most pressing financial questions in real time. From portfolio strategy and market outlook to...

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The Microsoft OpenAI Marriage Is On Rocky Ground

2026-04-29

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2026-04-29

The relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI has been a defining partnership in the blooming AI technology. But the partnership terms are changing, and what was once a solid relationship may be fracturing. On Monday morning, Microsoft shares quickly fell 5% as the Bloomberg headline “OpenAI Breaks Free From Exclusive AI Pact With Partner Microsoft” sent concern …

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BDCs: Not All Yield Is Created Equal

2026-04-29

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2026-04-29

Gated funds, collateral fraud, and auto-sector defaults are giving investors in private credit funds and their stock-market equivalents, business development corporations (BDCs), a headache. We have discussed the recent woes of private credit funds (HERE, HERE, HERE), yet we haven't addressed BDCs. The similarities and differences between private credit funds and BDCs are important.  For …

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4-28-26 Why You Should Care More About Earnings Than Oil Prices $SPX $USO

2026-04-28

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Right now, everyone is focused on the Strait of Hormuz closure → supply disruption → higher #crudeoil prices. But the real risk is not the shortage. It’s the snapback that follows. During the disruption, oil production doesn’t disappear — it’s temporarily shut in, while other producers ramp up output to capitalize on higher prices. As a result, there is hidden supply building in the background. Once the Strait reopens, all that delayed +...

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4-28-26 The Hidden Costs of Divorce

2026-04-28

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Divorce is rarely just emotional—it can be financially devastating. Lance Roberts and Jon Penn break down the many costs and consequences of divorce, with a focus on “financial infidelity” and how hidden spending, secret accounts, and undisclosed income are tearing marriages apart. #DivorceCosts #FinancialInfidelity #PersonalFinance #MarriageAndMoney #WealthManagement

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SOX Pulls The Market Higher

2026-04-28

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2026-04-28

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is on an incredible 18-day winning streak. Over this period, starting on March 31st, the SOX index has risen by 44%. This marks the longest winning streak in the index's 32-year history. Moreover, it is now up 150% year over year, exceeding its 100% year-over-year gain during the dot-com boom. …

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4-27-26 Why Markets Ignore The Strait of Hormuz & Are At All-Time Highs

2026-04-27

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Why are markets $SPX $QQQ staying strong (even hitting all-time highs) despite a major geopolitical shock like the Strait of Hormuz disruption, which affects ~20% of global #crudeoil supply? The ~10% pullback we had wasn’t unusual—it’s a typical correction we have every year. The Hormuz situation didn’t create this correction—it simply acted as the catalyst for a correction that was likely coming anyway. That drop was mainly a valuation reset, not...

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4-27-26 Why is the Market Ignoring the Strait?

2026-04-27

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Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have historically sent shockwaves through global markets—especially oil. Yet today, markets appear unusually calm. Why? Lance Roberts breaks down the disconnect between rising geopolitical risk and resilient equity markets, exploring why investors may be discounting the threat, including shifting oil correlations, expectations for contained conflict, and the role of liquidity, positioning, and...

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Guidance Takes Precedence Over Earnings

2026-04-27

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2026-04-27

On Thursday, the executives at Service Now (NOW) and IBM learned an important lesson the hard way as their stocks fell by 18% and nearly 10%, respectively. The stark message from Wall Street is that forward sales and earnings guidance now take precedence over recent financial results. IBM beat earnings expectations across the board. However, …

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Hormuz: Why Markets Are Shrugging Off The Oil Shock

2026-04-27

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2026-04-27

As of this writing, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed since February 28. Roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil stopped moving through the chokepoint. The International Energy Agency described the event as "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." Gulf producers shut in nearly 9 million barrels a day …

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The Dollar’s Funeral Keeps Getting Rescheduled

2026-04-25

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2026-04-25

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - Market Consolidates Recent Gains Last week, we noted that after the sharpest rally since May 2025, a correction was likely. Notably, those corrections come in two forms: a price pullback or a sideways consolidation. We got the latter. The S&P 500 churned between roughly 7,080 and 7,140 …

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4-18-26 Candid Coffee – Ask Us Anything

2026-04-24

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Markets remain volatile, but the bigger story is how investors navigate the transition from accumulation to retirement with confidence. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty tackle the real questions that matter most: how IRMAA works and how to plan around it, what fiduciary fees actually deliver, and how to think strategically about Roth conversions in the context of taxes, Social Security, and long-term income planning. We also dig into...

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4-24-26 “QE Is Reverse Robinhood” – Fed Policy Shift Is Coming?

2026-04-24

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Kevin Warsh, a soon-to-be Fed Chairman, argues that QE acts as a “reverse Robinhood,” boosting asset prices while widening inequality. In his confirmation remarks, he signals not a radical overhaul but a meaningful shift: questioning traditional inflation gauges like CPI and PCE and pointing toward alternative measures that show lower underlying inflation. If adopted, this reframing could justify a more dovish stance on rates. This isn’t a...

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