Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

When Financial Conditions Butt Heads With Borrowing Conditions

If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either. The current combination of easy financial conditions and tight borrowing conditions makes monetary policy difficult for the Fed to balance. At times, like today, financial and borrowing conditions can be at odds with each other, which makes the Fed’s job of managing monetary policy more...

Read More »

Wall Street Wants to Save Your Retirement

The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive this morning. Watch markets' steep angle of ascent; this is not sustainable, and correction will result sooner or later. Lance's unique inflation indicator... Markets still act...

Read More »

Do Technical Measures and Valuations Really Matter?

Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology:...

Read More »

Are Market Bubbles a Function Of Psychology?

There are three components of a “market bubble.” The first two, price and valuation, often get dismissed or rationalized during the inflation phase. That rationalization is due to investor psychology and the “Fear Of Missing Out (F.O.M.O.) Stop the re-makes of '80's movies (Roadhouse)! Markets are going into 5th straight month of gains, remaining over-bought and trading in a very narrowly-defined trend channel. Money going into cryptocurrency...

Read More »

Beware the Risks in Medicare Advantage Plans 2024

What do the Three Stooges and the Fed's rate cut plans have in common? Risk appetites are on the rise with the Reddit IPO; what if inflation heats up and the Fed cannot cut rates? We're living in a government-driven economy. The challenges to withdrawal rates: Goal-harvesting. Goal shifting when retirement guardrails change. The Reddit IPO: Let the euphoria burn away. Risks to Medicare Advantage plans in 2024: Pre-existing clauses. We now have to...

Read More »

How Will the Fed Rate Announcement Affect You?

Markets respond to the Fed rate announcement, indicating at least three rate cuts this year, the first one coming as soon as June. Danny & Jonathan discuss Bond behaviors in the aftermath and investor response to the Fed rate announcement. Changes to the Child Tax Credit for 2024 (it's not a deduction, but a credit against the tax you owe); caveat: It's not indexed for inflation. What about using insurance products as an investing tool. Danny...

Read More »

Is Your Ex Worth More Dead than Alive?

It's Fed Day: Danny Ratliff provides a preview in Lance's absence; mortgage rates are pricing-out most buyers. Is your ex- worth more dead than alive? Taking a look at SS survivors' benefits: There are some caveats. How to incorporate inflation hedging into your portfolio. Making buying choices to better manage inflation in household budgets. Why some are accessing 401-k funds (and what about those who do not have one?) Understanding target date...

Read More »

The Fed’s New Form of QE

There's a definite correlation between changes in stock buybacks and changes in market performance. With the closure of the stock buyback window by the blackout period, the effects will be interesting, especially with the prevailing attitudes in an over-extended market. We also notice Bitcoin is having an excellent correction. ance and Michael discuss the Fed's Dot Plot and plans for Quantitative Easing: Which problem is easier to fix: Creating...

Read More »

The Bull Market is Showing Some Cracks

We are back from Vacation! Over the last two weeks, the market's advance has begun to taper off, and a more rounded top may be forming. While the 20-DMA continues to act as support, a violation of that level could well trigger additional selling. Momentum and relative strength have also shown continued weakness, and both registered “sell signals” on Friday. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent...

Read More »

We’re On Spring Break

We're taking a little time off to enjoy family and the absence of alarm clocks for the next week. Our live shows will return on Monday, March 18, 2024. Please take a moment to subscribe and you'll be notified when our next show airs! ➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our YouTube Channel:...

Read More »

Holding Long-term Bonds, but not to Maturity

Market Commentary: When will rate cuts hit? Biden's SOTU Address: Get ready for higher corporate taxes and an inflation fight. The Death of the 4% Rule? Not yet...the impact of lower interest rates on a viable distribution plan; how to create one as Recession looms. Dealing with durations: Holding long-term bonds, but not to maturity. Credit risk in bonds, and the importance of portfolio fluidity. Distribution planning and timing: What are...

Read More »

Liquidity Problems Are Closer Than You Think

Earnings growth are a function of economic growth; the US Economy is de-coupled from the rest of the world, which economy is poor. The danger of deficits (that are funding our economic growth); SOTU Preview: "The economy is great." Market continues trading in a very tight range, but ever upward; this is when complacency sets in. The market is setting up for correction as the election draws nearer. Are we in a bubble or the market top; how...

Read More »

Proof: How Inflation is Affecting the Economy

Super Tuesday seems to have locked-up the next Presidential contest pairing; economic data is not so good, yet market exuberance continues. Fed speakers abound today ahead of the Fed's blackout period. A record-setting Yield Curve Inversion is underway, still without recession. Markets continue to trade in a narrow range, like clockwork; volatility actually declined. Are we at the top, and not a bubble? Correction this year is very likely; Bitcoin...

Read More »

Valuation Metrics Suggest Investor Caution

Economic Data releases and Fed speeches today will resonate with a rising commentary of no rate cut(s) this year, thanks to sticky inflation. Target's earnings show the consumer is still spending; markets continue in 4-month advance, longest since 1970. Preceding a correction? Markets are operating in a narrow trend channel, with money rotating out of Magnificent Seven Stocks and into meme stocks. Markets are in the midst of bullish exuberance;...

Read More »

Warren Buffett’s Cash Dilemma

Markets are entering the three strgonest months of the year; what if interest arwets aren't cut? February was unusually strong for a "weak" month; what happens during Presidential Election years? Looking at Volatility risk. Markets have been up for 16 of the past 18-weeks; such activity generalluy heralds a correction. Warren Buffett's annual letter: What do to with $160-B in cash? The dilemma of cash and valuations; cash held by...

Read More »

How to Plan for Social Security “Viability”

Social Security Viability: Let the Propaganda Begin As discussions ensue about the best way to bring the Social Security system into actuarial balance, the raising of the maximum wage base is emerging as a popular solution. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Apple's...

Read More »

Five Money Habits of Unhappy Couples

Nothing sinks a marriage quicker than money issues. If the Valentine’s Day glow has faded, promise you’ll respect your lover’s credit, communicate about your money, and share together money tips to help revive your financial harmony. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP, & Jonathan MCCarty, CFA, CFP, NSSA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer, &...

Read More »

Are Buybacks Worth Paying Up For?

Stock buyback activity is on pace to reach new, all-time highs (and it's only the end of February!) One reason for the gap between large-cap companies and small- and mid-caps is bigger companies' ability to pour cash into buybacks. Will election season cause Wall St. to reduce risk? GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers all revised downward, but confidence remains high in markets' ability to perform. Lance & Michael discuss volatility in portfolio...

Read More »

11 Pearls of Investing Wisdom from Warren Buffett

Markets continue to trade sideways as the latest earnings season draws to a close. Stock buy-backs will continue for the next three weeks, and then halt in preparation for the NEXT round of earnings reporting. Warren Buffett on buy-backs: Need to occur when companies are under-valued relative to markets for optimal effect; companies are now buying back at high prices. Company stocks are still trading despite 40% reporting negative earnings. What...

Read More »

This Is Nuts – An Entire Market Chasing One Stock

Preparing for this week's economic data releases; what the Fed looks at for Inflation; earnings season concludes with good beat-rate...on lowered expectations. Dow Theory theory and Amazon's joining the S&P 500: When does Nvidia enter the index? Analysts are raising targets for the S&P to 5800 by the end of the year, based on performance of Nvidia and other tech stocks: This is nuts. Markets continue to trade within narrowly-defined trading...

Read More »