Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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6 Medicare Landmines to Avoid

2023-09-08

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(9/8/23) Spending Lottery winnings; no more drilling = higher fuel prices; Candid Coffee tease; A flounder markets: Odds of Fed pause increasing; the threat of government shutdown & market ripples? Congress as "Animal House:" Oil Prices & Apple; market dynamics & touch psychology: Managing expectations. Healthcare premium increases for 2024 = 6.5%: Dealing w realities of Inflation. Zip Lock Bags & Canned goods; Medicare...

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The Big Bond Swap (9/7/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strat…

2023-09-07

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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7 Investment Types You Should Avoid

2023-09-06

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(9/6/23) All those Jobs numbers deserve a look under the hood: Are we really creating new jobs or just replacing the ones that went away? NOTE: Following each Jobs Report, revisions are made to previous numbers; this year's revisions are the most negative since the financial crisis. Are Jobs numbers a Recession indicator? The Risk remains. Markets in Correctional Period, VIX suppression vs history; investors have no apparent fear of Recession....

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Can Mega-caps Continue to Lead? (9/5/23): Technical Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisor…

2023-09-05

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(9/5/23) Markets are entering the "weak" month of September, the home of when things fall apart; barring any catastrophe, the month should prove to be flat. August Jobs Report shows higher unemployment = slower spending = lower inflation, the Fed's goal. Popcorn shrinkflation at Costco. Why Mega-cap stocks continue to lead the market: Growth of ETF's, and money must be invested for safety & liquidity. Why the Deficit declined: reduced...

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Do We Really Want a “Whatever It Takes” Economy?

2023-09-05

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(9/4/23) Debt service is diverting revenue from economic growth. The Fed is stuck between high rates and high inflation. How home builders are revising house plans to meet buyer realities. As goes China, so goes others' economies. Example of economic failure: China's empty cities & transportation systems = artificial growth. No one is using them. The "beauty" Socialism and Communism is always undone by human nature. Do we really want...

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How We’re Fighting Inflation Now (9/1/23): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commentary from RIA…

2023-09-01

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech in Review (8/31/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors …

2023-08-31

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Markets Cleared Resistance

2023-08-30

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(8/30/23) There will be some short-term economic benefit from the landfall of Hurricane Idalia in Florida--a momentary boost from damage repairs spending. Economic data has been coming in better-than-expected (because estimates had been lowered); bad news is good news again, in hopes the Fed will lower rates. Markets on Tuesday cleared resistance at the 20- and 50-DMA's; mid- and small-company bankruptcies are on the rise as lag effect of higher...

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The “Do Whatever it Takes” Economy

2023-08-29

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(8/29/23) Hurricane Idalia is bearing down on Florida; will there be epic adventure stories from Florida Man? Will markets "catch-up" to economic data, or will the data begin to prove-out market optimism? Will there be a recession (still) or a soft-landing? Market rallies; more positive action to come? Challenging the 20- and 50-DMA: Have markets achieved highs for 2023? Factors that drive markets: Politics, geo-politics, economics,...

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Will September Be Better than August?

2023-08-28

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(8/28/23) AOC to ban Donald Trump Mug shot glasses? Capitalism at its best. The NVDIA aftermath. More supplemental funding for vaccines: Follow the money. Defining capitalism. Markets having a sloppy month: is better performance ahead? Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech: Blaming Ukraine war for inflation (!) A review of how we measure core inflation. What Powell left out of his speech; "Navigating under cloudy skies." Still plenty of...

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Five Steps to Retirement in Five Years

2023-08-25

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(8/25/23) Markets await comments today from Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole confab; inflation is not going away, and is affecting financial planning: What is your risk tolerance now? Five steps to retirement in five years: What's your number? Healthcare expenses; Medicare mistakes to avoid; Reducing debt (what is your debt costing you?); What are your savings rates? Budgeting and knowing income stream sourcing. Why and when are more workers...

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Will Jerome Powell Address Stock Market at Jackson Hole?

2023-08-24

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(8/24/23) NVDIA's earnings report blows off the doors; market action will be driven by this news today. But NVDIA outlook is for slower growth moving forward. The company is fast on track to be as big if not bigger than Microsoft. Meanwhile, Wall Street is starting to ratchet down estimates for 2024, approaching reality. Can the S&P clear 4,400 with seasonal weakness still ahead? The Jackson Hole Preview: former Fed Gov. Bullard sees economic...

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What Do Rising Treasury Yields Mean?

2023-08-23

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(8/23/23) It's NVDIA Report Day: The NVDIA Drinking Game: How many times will they mention, "AI?" Economic data & the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Manufacturing data is not improving; what happens on the Services side? Dick's, Nike, Target, et al earnings and outlooks not good; WalMart & Kohl's are okay. Markets rally and sell-off Tuesday. The Barbie Movie: To see or not to see? What's the implication behind rise in Treasury...

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What’s in Store for 2024?

2023-08-22

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(8/22/23) All eyes are on NVDIA's report and the fulfilment(?) of 50% sales increase promises. Sustainability of growth numbers will be key. Fed governors are holding Jackson Hole prelude meetings. VIX has been creeping upward; markets correction of 5%; higher close on Monday, but no buy signal yet triggered. Expect another pullback prior to setting up for October rally; commodities are a concern. What's in store for 2024: A history of normal...

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Should Your Parents Pay for Your Vacation? (8/21/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advis…

2023-08-21

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Are Mandatory Savings Ahead?

2023-08-18

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(8/18/23) Market over-exuberance is now letting off steam; high interest rates are likely here to stay for a while. WalMart results reflecting more traffic from upper-income households suffering impact of inflation. The Peak-65 retirement trend shows less than half of retirees have less than $100k in investible funds; states moving to automatic savings into Roth IRA's; the downside of state-sponsored savings plans: Who administers/custodian?...

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The Fed: “Are We There, Yet?”

2023-08-17

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(8/17/23) The Atlanta Fed is now predicting GDP growth at 5.8% for the 3rd quarter, and another rate increase is expected as liquidity continues to move through the system. The S&P needs to get above 50-DMA; correction is normal, and the bullish trend continues. Target vs WalMart: A tale of two retailers. Consumer sentiment is better; no Recession coming? FOMC meeting minutes reveal more rate hikes to come, but Fed's views are mixed. Keeping a...

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Will the Fed Raise Inflation Target to 3%

2023-08-16

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(8/16/23) The continuing saga of Rocky Racoon at the Roberts' house; Retail Sales are still strong; the Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast calls for 5% growth = Inflation is still present, so no rate cuts from the Fed: Markets sell off. Will the Fed raise its Inflation Target to 3%? Economic Data sees no Recession, and more rate hikes are possibility. Markets break the 50-DMA and need to recover by week's end. Market & Data report preview: Bob Doll's...

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Stocks or Bonds?

2023-08-15

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Why the Fed Will Cut Rates

2023-08-14

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(8/14/23) August means hot weather in Texas, and the conclusion of earnings season, with a re-focusing on economic data. A burning question at the upcoming Jackson Hole rich guys' confab: What will it take for the Fed to lower rates? Profit margins are lower, but holding; Markets test 50-DMA and bounce. The real Fed funds rate; why the Fed would cut rates: Recession or crisis (the Fed WILL cut rates, just needs a reason). The Saga of the Roberts'...

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