Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The Dichotomy of Buying Stocks vs Stuff

2022-02-18

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(2/21/22) Why do we spend more time shopping on line for the best price, but do exactly the opposite when buying stocks? Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA, joins Lance to discuss the problem of beating the Index, why we implemented our SimpleVisor tool, and how we manage risk; the importance of risk-sizing in portfolios. [NOTE: Markets are closed today for President's Day. This is an excerpt of an recent show.] SEG-1: The Dichotomy of...

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Fed & Furious Episode

2022-02-18

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(2/17/22) The escalation of geopolitical risk continues to toy with the markets. The CDC is leaning towards dropping masking; getting back to normal will be good for the economy. Retail sales headline numbers vs reality (without seasonal adjustments). FOMC Meeting minutes suggest Fed is pulling back from hawkishness. Why we spend more time shopping on line for the best price, but do exactly the opposite when buying stocks; the problem of beating...

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R U Crazy for Buying Bonds? (2/16/22): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commentary from RIA Adv…

2022-02-18

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live daily on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA Pro Free Trial: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Bullish Things About Markets Right Now

2022-02-17

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(2/17/22) Markets rallied off their lows following yesterday's release of the FOMC meeting minutes, suggesting the Fed may not begin tapering its balance sheet (translation: turning off the liquidity spigot) until later this year. Markets closed about the 20-DMA, setting up to rally to the 50-DMA today. Markets are opening weaker today over geopolitical concerns (translation: Russia), but have been developing a bullish trend after re-testing lows...

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The Negative Psychology of Bonds

2022-02-17

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(2/16/22) Today we explore the psychology of investing, the negative psych-out that Bonds receive, and explainer of how they can work to your advantage as a hedge against all the things that scare you; Bonds are not always an "intuitive" choice. Energy Stocks' dynamics; the differential between 1970's economics and now. The Shortest Recession in history, and the relationship between interest rates and inflation; Living in the Carter...

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Why Buying Bonds Makes Sense Now | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-16

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(2/16/22) With rising interest rates and inflation fears, there have been negative attitudes about owning Bonds. With a debt- and leveraged-economy, with low economic output, bonds have certainly been under pressure. A look at the TLT EFT as a proxy for bonder performance history, we can see that bonds have been oversold. With prices on the decline, and yields on the rise as the Fed fights inflation, this is a perfect time to buy as a risk-off...

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Russia Backs-off, Markets Surge | 3:00 on markets & Money

2022-02-15

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(2/15/22) Markets are optimistic as Russia backs away from conflict with Ukraine. Indices could jump as much as 1.5% if this Process continues...but...the NASDAQ is down 14% from its record high close. A rally today does not change the dynamic of a downward trend in the markets. A reflexive rally from January's lows took us back up to the 20-DMA, which has been good resistance for the NASDAQ (much of today's rally will come from already over-sold...

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Russia Blinks (2/15/22): Market Technical Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investmen…

2022-02-15

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live daily on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA Pro Free Trial: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Why the Supply Chain Isn’t Broken (yet)

2022-02-15

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(2/14/22) Now that The Big Game has passed, it's time to collect on those bets! Russia, Ukraine, the European Union, NATO, and Markets' response; Markets will probably re-test previous lows. If they hold, markets will be set for next rally up. The effectiveness of the truckers' Freedom Convoy; Why the Supply Chain isn't broken--it was shut down. How to deal with a hyper-active Fed. What will be the next Minsky Moment? Inflation is a monetary...

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Markets Sell-off on Russia News

2022-02-14

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(2/14/22) Markets sold off ahead of the weekend as Russia dominated the headlines, and concerns over an invasion of Ukraine weighed on sentiment. But this morning, progress towards talks between the two countries is already underway. No one really wants a war, and it's in everyone's best interests to resolve the impasse. Markets' reflexive rally was the result of selling-off, triggered by Russia headlines. If the test of previous lows holds,...

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What’s the Fed Going to Do Next?

2022-02-12

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(2/11/22) With the bigger than expected 7.5% inflation print on Thursday, the next logical question is what will the Fed do? Why Inflation is going to be "sticky" for a while: Energy policy, public policy; when will price elasticity return? Is there an upside to Inflation: recession mentality, inflation mentality--similar to depression mentality of the '30's. The onset of Consumer Austerity. IRS Life Expectancy Tables have changed; what...

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What Today’s Inflation Numbers Mean for Markets | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-10

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(2/10 /22) The Fed's Raphael Bostick yesterday postulated that today's inflation print might be a little less than expected...resulting in a bit of a market rally to get above the 20-DMA, but not quite reaching the 50-DMA. Markets are still struggling to move higher, but Tech stocks outperformed on anticipation we might see some dis-inflation in today's numbers. The hope and expectation for lower inflation is that the Fed might back off its hawkish...

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Where’s the Value in ‘Value Stocks?’

2022-02-10

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What was first supposed to be a peaking rate of inflation---how inflation is calculated; The rate of inflation will come down because of the rate of change--but high prices will remain high. Why there is little value in 'value stocks' today--the biggest cause: Passive Investing; the Proctor & Gamble gamble; how well are corporations represented in a mutual fund? Why investors are buying 'value' in name-only. 1:42 - Why Some Prices Will Remain...

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Will Markets Get a Boost from Inflation Numbers? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-09

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(2/9/22) The recent rally back to the 50-DMA has been good, but since then markets have been trending slightly lower. Tomorrow's inflation data is expected to be the high-water mark for this year. If inflation comes in weaker than expected, stocks might get a boost on expectations the Fed might not be as aggressive with monetary policy. But the reality is that markets have made very little--if any--progress since October 2020. There are plenty of...

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The Congressional Stock Trading Ban Gathers Steam

2022-02-09

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Recipients of the Child Tax Credit have a surprise from the IRS; the Congressional stock trading ban gathers steam; Amazon's base salary hike, and how to really fix the compensation gap. Why Markets haven't gone anywhere since October; pat attention to the generals; the importance of portfolio risk sizing. Why Texas outperformed the rest of the nation in GDP during the pandemic; SMA's and Tax Management tracking errors; "Uncle, Lance, where...

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Is Bond Sentiment Shifting from Bearish to Bullish? | Three Minutes on Markets & Money

2022-02-08

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(2/8/22) Interest Rates have been inching upward out of concerns over the Fed's response to rising inflationary pressures--a normal response. But's also causing concern from investors with fixed-income holdings: what happens when dis-inflation arrives in the economy? As we begin to have slower rates of growth and diminishing rates of inflation on an annualized basis, take caution of a feedback loop into Treasury bonds. The Fed's rate hikes will...

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Defining the Bear (2/8/22): Market Technical Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Invest…

2022-02-08

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live daily on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA Pro Free Trial: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Markets At a Standstill: Watch & Wait | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-07

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(2/7/22) Markets rallied last week, as expected, coming off deeply oversold levels. Now sitting in no-man's land--will markets retest October lows, or find support where we are, and begin to rally higher ahead of the Fed' meeting in March? What happens next--and how do you manage your portfolio accordingly? If you think we're in a bear market, raise cash by selling off poor performers in your portfolio, you could potentially be on the wrong side of...

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Is the Fed One-and-Done? (2/7/22): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investmen…

2022-02-07

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live daily on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA Pro Free Trial: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Facebook Earnings Take Down Market | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-03

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(2/3/22) Facebook's less-than-expected earnings report was enough of a disappointment to take down the rest of the market on Wednesday; the question now is whether Meta can withstand the demographic headwinds that are coming, along with a troubling trend of declining user-growth. Particularly vulnerable to Facebook's face-plant is the NASDAQ, with its tech-heavy weighting. Major indexes will open weaker today after a sharp rally over the past few...

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