Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Is the Correction Over? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-02

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(//) Robust earnings reports are boosting market confidence--the bottoming process to October lows is holding up. Money flow buy signals are in, also supporting the market rally. Resistance will still exist around the 0- and 50-DMA. Markets have not completely healed themselves, but positive earnings reports coming out are a helpful salve. Google beat estimates, AND announced a 0:1 stock split. Advanced Micro Devices also delivered...

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January’s Gone, February’s On

2022-02-02

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What happens following the "Trifecta of Disappointment:" the Santa Claus Rally failed, the first five days of January failed, and the month of January failed--in years in which these occur, markets are down for the year. The odds of the size of a Fed Rate Hike are beginning to drop: Will the the FOMC be as aggressive as we've been led to believe? Will we see $90 Oil? Chasing Hard Assets & Commodities; News that boggles the mind; money...

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Is the Market Bottom In? | 3:00 Minutes on Markets & Money

2022-02-01

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(2/1/22) January's brutal 9% market losses have been trimmed dramatically by market rallies the past few days, and futures are positive as portfolio managers position for February business. Buy signals have been triggered across the board, suggesting that the rally has room to roam yet again. The issue is where to allocate money now. There's a thesis that inflation might not be as bad, and the Fed might not raise rates as aggressively as first...

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Why the Fed is Wrong (and what you can do about it)

2022-02-01

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As goes January, so goes the year for markets...or so they say. The Fed is in fight-mode against inflation, despite deflationary 1% GDP growth; Less liquidity = less demand = less productivity; the theoretical benefits of blockchain technology, and why the Gov't. wants to regulate; what will the next CPI print show? Why the Fed is wrong--and what you must do to protect your portfolio. 1:3 - January Axioms; The Fed's Inflation Fight 1:54 - The...

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Market Selloff, Inflation vs. Deflation, and the Fed

2022-01-31

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Here is an encore presentation of the January 29, 2022 Special Edition episode of Candid Coffee, our Exclusive Analysis of the Fed's Actions this week, direct from the kitchen tables of Richard Rosso, CFP, RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, and Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Richard and Danny are joined by CIO Lance Roberts to discuss: 0:50 - Markets are down for 2022 already: Why it feels so bad 2:50 - Understanding Market...

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Will The Friday Rally Falter? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-01-31

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(1/31/22) Friday's big rally finally triggered a buy-signal on the S&P 500, setting up an opportunity for portfolio rebalancing. We've been watching for a basing of markets along October's lows... Friday's performance suggests that we could see more of a rally. However, don't be too surprised if this initially rally falters and establishes a new bottom before moving upwards again. A failure to establish that bottom at this time could set-up...

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How to Keep Your Cool in a Volatile Market

2022-01-29

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Given the markets' performance this week, it's important for investors to maintain a sense of humility; How Apple kicked butt; Fed de-toxification: No longer coddling investors. Social Media & A World w/out Twitter; does the Fed have the backbone to allow Recession? The importance of opposing views, and avoiding confirmation bias; preparing for inflation, & importance of investing rules; the problem with sticky inflation; how to properly...

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What Does the Fed’s “Sooner & Faster” Stance Mean for Markets? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-01-27

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(1/27/22) Markets tanked after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's pronouncement of the FOMC's heightened response to the economy with "sooner & faster" rate hikes. In reality, there was very little change from past Fed meetings, but in the presser afterwards, when Powell uttered those two words, markets collapsed and gave up all their gains. The bottom line: The Fed is going to hike rates and reduce its balance sheet, sooner than later, and...

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How to Invest with a “Sooner, Faster” Fed

2022-01-27

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Did the Fed just create the 472nd sequel to the Fast & Furious franchise with its "Sooner & Faster" pronouncement? Markets will be more volatile this year; the Fed basically told the markets what they already knew; the sincerity of Jerome Powell. 2022 will be The Year of Volatility; how large cap companies will cope. How the YOLO investing mentality turned sour; managing fear and greed in 2022. 1:42 - The Sooner, Faster Fed's...

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Futures Higher Ahead of Today’s Fed Meeting | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-01-26

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(1/26/22) Futures are higher ahead of today's Fed meeting--in markets that have been sharply lower since the beginning of the year. Are markets ready for a bounce? The S&P is oversold, sitting on support from October's lows. A bounce today could rally all the way back up to the 20- and 50-DMA, and hitting 4,600 on the S&P would not be surprising. Similarly, the NASDAQ, down over 13% for the year, a rally back to its 20- and 50-DMA is not...

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Is Deflation the Watch-word?

2022-01-26

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Will the Fed be as aggressive with rate policy in the aftermath of market performance of late? Why MSFT is the best-operating company on the planet; The Fed's challenge: What to do ahead of the next recession? Headwinds for the Fed: No more liquidity; watchword will be deflation. Why do people want free stuff from the Government? How much negativity has entered markets courtesy of ETF's? "Buy Beta" will shift to buying alpha with quality...

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Markets Calling the Fed’s Bluff | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-01-25

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(1/25/22) Markets' sold-off sharply through the first half of the day, with downside liquidation pressure. However, at midday, markets rallied to recover all of the morning's losses, with a huge volume surge at the end of the day. All of this activity took place within the context of a pre-Fed meeting environment: That discussion will center on whether to hike rates and/or tighten the Fed's balance sheet, ostensibly to blunt the effects of...

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Employment & Jobs: Is There More to the Story?

2022-01-25

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The Fed's conundrum, and markets call its bluff; Inflationary pressure is coming; inflation now & then (1970's); what happens when the Fed becomes more active; the employment & participation picture; how we count workers counts; the Market as Barometer for the Presidency; the Fed is a political animal. 1:38 - Market Recap: The Fed's Conundrum 13:01 - Inflation Then & Now: What Happens When the Fed is Active 28:45 - Employment &...

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Could We Have Another 35% Sell-off?

2022-01-24

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(1/24/22) Markets' strong sell-off on Friday produced the second-largest Options Expiration Day in market history--$3.3-trillion in options being handled: a lot of pressure on the S&P and NASDAQ, breaking below their 200-DMA. Could we have another 35% sell-off? Not necessarily--for one thing, we're not shutting down the economy again. But with stocks, crypotocurrency, and speculative assets in general under significant pressure, you've gotta...

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The Sell-off Episode (1/24/22): Miss the live-stream? Watch the recording of this show on our You…

2022-01-24

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live daily on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA Pro Free Trial: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Will 2022 Be the Year of Investor Comeuppance?

2022-01-22

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2022 is not starting out the way a lot of investors expected; will this be the year of Investor Comeuppance? What is true value? Taking profits in Tech, and the Island of Misfits; Why rising interest rates are poison to speculative investors, The myth of living debt-free with a paid-off mortgage; Why Cash Flow is the primary consideration in Retirement; best-selling home sizes. 2:12 - Will 2022 Be the Year of Comeuppance? 13:00 - Taking Profits...

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Is the Fed Too Late to the Game?

2022-01-21

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The impact on markets of dropping mask and vaccine mandates--and is the Fed too late to the game? How we're getting "back to normal--"what ever that is; the Fed is in a no-win position: How will it re-price risk? the difference between inflation and dis-inflation; what's the difference between conservative company and a conservative stock? Is value coming back into style? How to find a "value stock" that's not a value trap? How...

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Is It Time to Short the Vaccine Makers? Three Minutes on Markets & Money

2022-01-20

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(1/20/22) As vax mandates around the world begin to crumble, the shift to "normalcy" should restore economic productivity. Getting people back to work and restoring consumer confidence is what makes an economy grow. So, what about the vax-makers? Johnson & Johnson peaked in December, and has been on a downward trend ever since. Moderna has also been in a big correction since July; Pfizer has also peaked and is beginning to decline....

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Time to Resize Oil Stock Allocations?

2022-01-20

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Despite Tuesday's Market sell-off, and a paucity of good economic news, there's really no need to panic; the potential impact of the Fed's rate-hikes on the Energy Sector: time for rotational work between Value & Growth; The ugly secret behind the Fed's rate hike plans--and why they won't go very far. Why we re-sized out allocations in oil stocks; why rig counts remain low; what kind of oil stocks are best to own now? the Fed's Impact on the...

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Is Oil Going to $105/bbl?

2022-01-19

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(1/19/22) Goldman is looking for oil prices to go to $105/bbl--possible? Supply-demand imbalance dynamics and strong economic recovery forces could impact demand, causing prices to rise....but...would that last later into the year? Energy Stocks are now trading three standard-deviations above their 50-DMA. However, money flow indicators are over-bought, and close to triggering a sell-signal which could precede a pull back. That's why we thought...

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