Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Happy Holidays from RIA Advisors

2021-12-22

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We are on a break for the holidays from Thursday (12/23) through the end of the year. We will return with live video content on Monday, January 3, 2022. In the meantime, please visit our website for audio podcasts to hold you over during the Yule Tide: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/podcasts/ Thanks for your support during the past year. We look forward to entertaining, informing, and serving you in the New Year! #Markets #Money #Investing

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Did the Santa Claus Rally Commence?

2021-12-22

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(12/22/21) Following three straight days of selling, markets had a nice, strong rebound, climbing above the 50- and 20-DMA's, clearing the way for a bit of a rally. The not-so-good news was the relative weakness in volume, breadth, with not a lot of commitment in either direction. Markets are looking to move marginally higher today, putting us potentially into Rally-mode during the last five-days of the year, next week. Stocks that have been...

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Will Markets Keep Their Rally Today?

2021-12-21

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(12/21/21) Following Monday's sell-off, will markets keep their rally today? One thing to be careful of is what you read in the headlines--they're almost always wrong about what's happening in the markets. Despite the "rise of Omicron," and the "failure of the BBB plan" leading to yesterday's sell-off, the decline has been going on for the last three days in this time of the year: mutual fund distributions and tax-loss selling,...

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The Biggest Risks in 2022 (Hint: It’s not the Fed)

2021-12-21

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Omicron Tests w dire warnings of death, and the temporary defeat of the BBB Bill are NOT why Markets skidded Monday; news headlines are bigger risks than the Fed because of emotional impact; importance of risk management protocol in place; recalibration of CPI and inflation; Michael Lebowitz' "Speculation Index." 1:32 - When will the Selling Stop? 12:52 - Why the Fed is Not Investors' Biggest Risk 28:44 - Will Value vs Growth Be Back in...

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How Supply Chain Disruptions Stole Christmas

2021-12-21

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It's a holiday-shortened trading week with Christmas on Saturday; will Santa show on Broad & Wall, or no? The BBB (Build Back Better bill) is DOA; how supply chain interruptions have impacted Christmas and cars; economic cycle explained: Supply vs Demand & demand & Demand; the problem w depending on government to solve "You" problems; Investor Psychology & ignoring emotion; 1:32 - There's No Guarantee Santa is Coming to...

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Is Santa Coming or Not?

2021-12-20

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(12/20/21) It's the week before Christmas, and all through the house, we're starting to think Santa is some kind of louse. There are implications from the denial of the Build Back Better Bill, with Goldman reducing economic growth forecasts for 2022 because the resultant extraction of liquidity from the market. This also suggests more pressure on profit margins with high rates of inflation as we head into the new year. Expect light trading during...

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Why Conversations About Money Are Gifts

2021-12-18

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The Joy of Chocolate; Markets' response to Fed announcement; 10 Financial Resolutions for 2022; How businesses are dealing with inflation; Louis L'Amour & Leon Hale; Conversations about money are gifts; What's your Money Story? ------ 1:28 - 10 Financial Resolutions for 2022 12:42 - Dealing with Inflation for the Holidays 12:37 - Conversations About Money are Gifts 42:41 - Five Wishes for Your Family Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of...

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The REAL Reason Jerome Powell is Protecting the Markets

2021-12-17

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Markets respond positively to Fed plans for three rate hikes in 2022...and more to come; What's Jerome Powell really doing? Wrapping up 2021 & prepping for '22: Headwinds we're seeing next year; why stronger dollar will stunt economic growth. ------ 1:11 -What the Fed Said; What the Markets Did; What's next 11:55 - Why Jerome Powell is Really Protecting the Markets 27:55 - How to Position Your Portfolio for 2022 41:53 - Why a Stronger Dollar...

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Don’t Be Fooled by the Market Rally on Fed News

2021-12-16

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(12/16/21) Markets loved the Fed's announcement that tapering will commence, and the rate of change in rates will be accelerate: Three interest rate hikes in 2022, and three more in 2023. If inflation continues to rage (now termed "non-transitory"), there is a likelihood those rate hikes will become even more fast and furious. This more-hawkish mood of the Fed did not deter markets, rising sharply on the announcement, and the S&P...

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As the Fed rolls out its plan, what’s the best way to use your cash?

2021-12-16

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Is the Fed replicating policy mistakes of the past? A look at the metamorphosis of Jerome Powell, and an examination of Retail vs Internet Sales this holiday season. ------ 1:35 - The Fed is About to Do Nothing Unexpected 12:46 - Why The Fed is Doing It Backwards 28:45 - Candid Coffee 1/15/22 Preview 30:27 - A Roberts Christmas 32:10 - The Evolution of Jerome Powell 42:53 - Retail vs Internet Sales Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist...

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How to Set Stop Limits

2021-12-15

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(12/15/21) Here's an inside look at the technical parameters we use to set up stop losses on positions in our portfolios. "Setting a stop" is like drawing a line in the sand, beyond which you are not willing to lose money on a stock. Let's look at Apple--a stock that's currently trading at three standard deviations above its moving average--which is very extended, and ripe for a pullback. The first thing you might want to do is take...

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Fed to make statement on Monetary Policy tomorrow as markets beginning to look more unhealthy

2021-12-15

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The Fed is set to make a statement on Monetary Policy tomorrow as markets have begun to feel the lessening of liquidity injections; markets' meteoric performance is being sustained by a handful of large-cap companies: behind the scenes, it's bleak. ------ 1:17 - What Happens When the Fed Steps on the Brakes? 12:28 - The Market Wipe-out Behind the Scenes 28:22 - Investing for Liquidity: What Happens When There are No Buyers? 42:23 - Why the Market...

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Bitcoin down two standard deviations below 50-DMA

2021-12-14

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(12/14/21) Market trading could get sloppy with the Fed on deck tomorrow to talk about monetary tapering...and options expirations on Friday spurring traders to reposition. The 20-DMA is just below where markets are sitting. Bollinger Bands are not too far above current highs. Markets are oversold, so working that off could set up for a rally into the year's end. Interestingly, while the major markets have been holding onto all-time highs, in the...

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Why Changing CPI Calculations Matter

2021-12-14

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Options Expirations on Friday and the Fed's discussions this week on rate hikes will make for sloppy markets; Signs of Market Exuberance; How IPO's really work; What Inflation will do next; changing CPI calculations; Jackson-5 Index; why we don't own gold...yet. ------ 1:32 - Why Rate Hikes DO Matter...at some point 12:47 - Signs of Market Exuberance 28:50 - Why CPI Doesn't Match Reality 42:46 - Why We Don't Own Gold Now Hosted by RIA Advisors...

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Markets This Week Might Be Set Up for Sloppy Trading

2021-12-13

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(12/13/21) Events this week could set up for a period of sloppy trading, including the Fed meeting on Wednesday to discuss monetary policy--and whether or not they'll raise rates faster than expected--as well as Options Expirations on Friday; portfolio rebalancing and window dressing should then lead to the end of year Santa Claus Rally. A good "buy" signal is in place, and money flows are improving. Markets are temporarily over-bought...

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How Do You Know You’re Getting Bad Financial Advice

2021-12-09

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Still Christmas Shopping?? Give it up...implications of re-opening the economy w wage inflation; short covering into a rally; Bad financial advice usually involves money in motion to create fees; how to tell good advice from bad; 30-yr mortgages, Roth conversions, and lending to family. ------ 0:23 - Re-opening the Economy & Wage Inflation 12:41 - Money in Motion Creates Fees 28:41 - How Can You Tell Bad Financial Advice from Good? 42:42 - Why...

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Is the “Short-Term” Rally Here to Stay?

2021-12-08

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(12/8/21)Is the "short-term" rally actually here to stay? Markets have broken out of the short-term downtrend of the past two weeks WITH Conviction! As markets open higher, sustainability becomes the big question. Money Flow indicators and MACD's are turning positive, coinciding with the traditional Santa Claus rally in late December. However, next week's Fed meeting could reveal more market weakness. The VIX is collapsing back towards...

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And the Number-one Problem This Week Is…

2021-12-08

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The Markets' sell-off has not been unexpected; there are now as many NASDAQ stocks down 20-50% from their highs as there were in Dec 2018, in mid-Taper Tantrum--thanks to Apple, Google, Microsoft, & NVDIA. Market Predictions & Problems; when Liquidity leaves. ------ 0:24 - Why We Expected the Market Sell-off 11:23 - It's the Most Wonderful (Prediction) Time of the Year 27:22 - The Number One Problem...this week (now, it's inflation) 41:22...

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Market Rebound Continues

2021-12-07

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(12/7/21) Markets continue to rebound, as expected, heading towards mid-month. Markets are now set to rally toward the 20-DMA, but we're not quite finished with Mutual Fund rebalancing, and there is still short-term risk. Getting into early 2022, the Fed will captivate investor attention, and whether and when it will tighten QE. Also look for 2022 headwinds in the form of lower profit margins, higher rates of inflation, wage-growth and employment...

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Should You Be Taking Profits Now?

2021-12-07

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What's really driving Wall Street? Value Stocks have been performing because they haven't worked this year; The liquidity Issue, Managing Risk, and lowering expectations for returns; the Math of Losing Money; why outlooks are always optimistic; don't be afraid to take profits! ------ 02:01 - What is Actually Driving the Market? 12:49 - The Liquidity Issue & Managing Risk 28:42 - Sell Something! 42:47 - Wrapping the Year & 2022 Outlook...

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