Category Archive: Global Macro

Trump, Trade and Taxes

Donald Trump has made trade agreements a central issue in this presidential election, declaring trade treaties such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as unfair and subject to cancellation or renegotiation. Setting aside the issue of...

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM initially benefitted from the FOMC decision, but softened into the weekend. One culprit was lower oil prices, as reports suggest an output deal is unlikely at the OPEC meeting this week in Algeria. But it wasn’t just EM, as the greenback closed...

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

In the EM local currency bond space, Brazil (10-year yield -36 bp), Turkey (-26 bp), and Hungary (-17 bp) have outperformed this week, while Ukraine (10-year yield +9 bp), Mexico (+2 bp), and China (flat) have underperformed.  

What If We’re in a Depression But Don’t Know It?

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Julius Baer CEO says Asia revenue may excede Europe’s in 5 years

Julius Baer Group Ltd. said Asia may overtake Europe as its biggest revenue-generating region, as the Swiss wealth manager steps up hiring in Hong Kong and Singapore. “In the next five years, Asia could be the biggest region for us if we grow at...

The Three Stages of Empire

I consider it self-evident that we are in the third and final stage of self-serving Imperial decay. Though Edward Luttwak's The Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire: From the First Century CE to the Third is not specifically on the rise and fall of...

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM ended the week on a soft note. Volatility is likely to remain high as markets are jittery and choppy ahead of the BOJ/FOMC meetings on Thursday. Dollar gains were broad-based last week, but EM certainly underperformed. China markets will reopen...

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

The IEA forecast that the surplus in global oil markets will last for longer than previously thought. Philippine President Duterte called for US troops to leave the southern island of Mindanao. Relations between Poland and the EU are deteriorating....

How About Presenting the Facts and Letting Voters Decide Who’s “Fit to Serve”?

This simple two-step process would greatly diminish the Ministry of Propaganda's influence. Here's a radical idea: how about presenting the facts and letting voters decide who is "fit to serve"? Consider the context of this presidential election and...

The Mainstream Media Bet the Farm on Hillary–and Lost

The MSM has forsaken its duty in a democracy and is a disgrace to investigative, unbiased journalism. The mainstream media bet the farm on Hillary Clinton, confident that their dismissal of every skeptical inquiry as a "conspiracy" would guarantee her...

It’s Time to Bring Back Bernie

This tells you everything you need to know about how Hillary will operate as President: there will be no honesty, transparency or truth, ever. Hillary's bid for the presidency is no longer defensible; it's time to bring back Bernie Sanders as the...

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM ended last week on a soft note. Perhaps it was the North Korean nuclear test (see below). Perhaps it was disappointment in the ECB or rising Fed tightening odds. Whatever the trigger was, EM FX weakness persisted and appears likely to carry over...

If Everything Is So Great, How Come I’m Not Doing So Great?

While the view might be great from the top of the wealth/income pyramid, it takes a special kind of self-serving myopia to ignore the reality that the bottom 95% are not doing so well. We're ceaselessly told/sold that the U.S. economy is doing...

Control What You Can and the Asset Ownership of the Wealthy

Our society does not make it easy to control what you can control. Assets are controlled increasingly by a smaller and smaller part of our society. Here's a couple of thoughts on productively controlling what we can control.

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

India has a new central bank head. North Korea detonated a nuclear device. The Turkish government may be eyeing the central bank for the next purge. Mexican Finance Minister Videgaray resigned. Incoming Mexican Finance Minister Meade announced new...

Our Selfie Society Is Incompatible with Democracy

Now that the U.S. is a neoliberal selfie society, we have the worst of all possible worlds in terms of a failed, doomed democracy. Each individual's liberty to do whatever you want, be whatever you want, go wherever you want, etc. (within the legal...

Our Impoverished, Pathological Society

If asked what's intrinsic to human happiness, most people in consumer societies will offer up answers such as money, status, a nice house, etc. But as Sebastian Junger observes in his book Tribe: On Homecoming and Belonging, what's actually intrinsic...

Intriguing Eruditions: The weak month of the stock market

On Tuesday, I noted the end of summer and the entrance into one of the weakest months of the year statistically speaking. “We can confirm BofAML’s point by looking at the analysis of each month of September going back to 1960 as shown in the chart...

The “Secret Sauce” of the Byzantine Empire: Stable Currency, Social Mobility

One of my reading projects over the past year is to learn more about empires:how they are established, why they endure and why they crumble. To this end, I've recently read seven books on a wide variety of empires. The literature on empires is vast, so...

Mission Creep – How the Fed will justify maintaining its excessive balance sheet

FOMC have changed their normalizing strategy several times and we now see the contours of yet another shift. The Federal Reserve was supposed to reduce its elevated balance sheet before moving interest higher as it would be impossible to increase the...
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