Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

The Monopoly – Labor "Let It Rot" Death Spiral

The only rational response to this reality is to opt out, lay flat and let it rot. In my previous post, The Bubble Economy's Credit-Asset Death Spiral, I described the self-reinforcing feedback of expanding credit and soaring asset valuations and how the only possible result of this financial perpetual motion machine was a death spiral of collapsing debt service, collateral and credit impulse.

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There is no mistaking these signals; that’s the bad news.

You really, *really* need to understand what market curves are telling you - and why. To get the best sense, let's go through the fundamentals, make what might seem a startling comparison, and then see if all that matches what we're just now seeing come up in the data.

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The Bubble Economy’s Credit-Asset Death Spiral

Who believed that central banks' financial perpetual motion machine was anything more than trickery designed to generate phantom wealth? Central banks seem to have perfected the ideal financial perpetual motion machine: as credit expands, money pours into risk assets, which shoot higher under the pressure of expanding demand for assets that yield either hefty returns (junk bonds) or hefty capital gains as the soaring assets suck in more capital...

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SMART BOURSE – Marchés à thème(s) : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Lundi 5 décembre 2022, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste senior US, Pictet WM)

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Lundi 5 décembre 2022, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste senior US, Pictet WM)

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This Is of Course Insane

Greed is a powerful motivation to be an ardent believer in the central banking cult. The ideal cult convinces its followers that it isn't a cult, it's simply the natural order of things.In current terms, this normalizes insane behaviors and beliefs. Sacrificing youth to appease the gods isn't a cult; it's simply the natural order of things.

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The "Oil Curse" and Splashy PR Announcements of Oil Production Cuts

It's not just the price of oil that matters: how much disposable income consumers have left to buy more goods and services matters, too. The Oil Curse (a.k.a. The Resource Curse) refers to the compelling ease of those blessed with an abundance of oil/resources to depend on that gift for the majority of state/national revenues.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Currency Illusion

When we think about the challenges facing an investor today, the big problems, the things we worry about that could cause a lot more harm than some interest rate hikes, are mostly outside the United States. China is prominent this weekend because of demonstrations against their zero COVID policies. The Chinese people appear to be pretty well fed up with the endless lockdowns and have finally decided to try and do something about it. Unfortunately,...

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The Uncertainty in China Is Kryptonite to Global Markets

Few seem alive to the potentially consequential financial risks arising from uncertainties evolving in China. One thing we know rather definitively is that markets don't like uncertainty: uncertainty is Kryptonite to markets. Another thing we know is that the events unfolding in China are generating uncertainty on multiple levels.

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Lundi 21 novembre 2022, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste senior US, Pictet WM)

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There’s No Bottom Until Frenzied Speculation Turns to Dust

Only when speculative sizzle attracts no buyers / marks will the bottom be in. There hasn't been a truly organic bottom in stocks in decades. Fifteen years of relentless central bank manipulation since the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown has persuaded punters that central banks will always save us should the market turn down because relentless central bank suppression of interest rates and expansion of liquidity (a.k.a. free money for financiers)...

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FTX: The Dominoes of Financial Fraud Have Yet to Fall

Once assets are revealed as worth far less than claimed, insolvency is the inevitable result. If you haven't plowed through dozens of post-collapse commentaries on FTX, I'm saving you the trouble: here's a distillation of what matters going forward. If you're seeking a forensic accounting of FTX, others have done this work already.

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Why is the World Cup important to Qatar?

Qatar is about to host the most expensive World Cup ever, costing as much as $300bn. Why has this small, gas-rich kingdom chosen to host football’s most prestigious event, and how does it fit into its broader plans for economic transformation? 00:00 - Why is Qatar hosting the World Cup? 00:57 - World Cups are expensive competitions 01:56 - Qatar’s human rights violations 02:36 - Qatar’s place in the Gulf 04:43 - Qatar distinguishes itself from...

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The IRS Will Tax Less of an Estate in 2023

In 2012, the American Taxpayer Relief Act (ATRA) established, for the first time, a permanent estate tax and gift tax exemption. The exemption is the amount an individual can pass on at death without paying estate taxes. The legislation set the exemption at $5 million per person, indexed for inflation.

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Trump 2024: could he win again?

It’s official: Donald Trump is running for president in 2024. What will his campaign look like, and does he stand a chance of winning? Our Washington bureau chief reacts to the announcement. 00:00 - Trump is back 00:50 - Trump makes 2024 presidential bid 02:23 - Who is Trump’s new rival? 03:08 - What’s behind Trump’s early announcement? 03:50 - Could Trump win? Sign up the The Economist’s daily newsletter: https://econ.st/3TOTlb2 Trump is...

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2023 Retirement Plan Contribution Limits

Worried about saving enough for retirement? You can put away more next year. The IRS has just announced the new retirement plan contribution limits for 2023. The contribution limit for employees who participate in 401(k), 403(b), most 457 plans, and the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan increases to $22,500, up from $20,500.

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Where Crypto Went Wrong

You want to fix the world with finance? Then fix this: wages' share of a financialized, globalized, speculative-bubble dependent economy have been falling for decades. Fix this and you really will change the world. Anything less changes nothing.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Good News, Bad News

One thing I can tell you for certain about last week’s big rally on Thursday and Friday: there were a lot of people who desperately wanted a good excuse to buy stocks. And buy they did after a better-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning, pushing the S&P 500 up nearly 6% on the week with all of that coming on Thursday and Friday.

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Asymmetries, Distortions and Denial

When bubbles pop, it's natural selection at its most unforgiving: "adapt or die," and those who ignore or discount consequential asymmetries will have a very difficult time navigating the triage. After years of relative stability, it seems asymmetries, distortions and denial are playing out in unexpectedly destabilizing ways.

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G20: The Economist interviews Indonesia’s president

The host of this year’s G20 considers himself a key player in resolving geopolitical tension. But to many, Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo, is a bit of a mystery. The Economist’s editor-in-chief, Zanny Minton Beddoes, sat down with him. 00:00 - Bali is hosting the G20 00:44 - Mitigating global tension 03:30 - Threat of Taiwan invasion 05:25 - Renewable energy in Indonesia 06:36 - Jokowi’s future plans To read more of our coverage on...

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