Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Looking Back At Chaotic March Through TIC

March ended up being a pretty wild ride. Lost amidst the furor over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the month began with a couple clear “collateral days. T-bill rates along with repo fails echoed that same shortfall before the yield curve then joined the eurodollar futures curve being inverted.

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T-bills Targeted Target

Yesterday’s market “volatility” spilled (way) over into this morning’s trading. It ended up being a very striking example, perhaps the clearest and most alarming yet, of a scramble for collateral. The 4-week T-bill, well, the chart speaks for itself:During past scrambles, such as those last year, they didn’t look like this. They would hit, stick around for an hour, maybe a bit longer, and then clear up as collateral books get balanced in repo like...

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Synchronized Not Coronavirus

There is an understandable tendency to just write off this weekend’s disastrous Chinese data as nothing more than pandemic politics. After all, it has been Emperor Xi’s harsh lockdowns spreading like wildfire across China rather than any disease (why it has been this way, that’s another Mao-tter).

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Crude Contradictions Therefore Uncertainty And Big Volatility

This one took some real, well, talent. It was late morning on April 11, the crude oil market was in some distress. The price was falling faster, already down sharply over just the preceding two weeks. Going from $115 per barrel to suddenly less than $95, there was some real fear there.But what really caught my attention was the flattening WTI futures curve.

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Ukraine conflict: Russian-controlled territories vs Ukraine’s counter-offensive | WION Originals

WION -The World is One News, examines global issues with in-depth analysis. We provide much more than the news of the day. Our aim to empower people to explore their world.

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Checking In On Five Long-Term Cycles

The decline phase of S-Curves can be gradual or a cliff-dive. Way back in 2007 I charted five long-wave cycles that I reckoned consequential: 1. Public debt (accumulating federal deficits) 2. Inflation 3. Oil (energy) 4. Interest rates 5. Speculative fever

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Curveballs in the Housing Bubble Bust

All these curveballs will further fragment the housing market. Oh for the good old days of a nice, clean housing bubble and bust as in 2004-2011: subprime lending expanded the pool of buyers, liar loans and loose credit created speculative leverage, the Federal Reserve provided excessive liquidity and the watchdogs of the industry were either induced (ahem) to look away or dozed off in a haze of gross incompetence.

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Weekly Market Pulse: TANSTAAFL

TANSTAAFL is an acronym for “There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch”. It has been around a long time – Rudyard Kipling used it in an essay in 1891 – but it was popularized by Robert Heinlein’s 1966 book, “The Moon is a Harsh Mistress”.

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Herd on the Street

The casino has become complex and there are no easy answers or predictable paths. The Wall Street herd had it easy from 2009 to 2021. Life was simple and life was good: markets were easy to predict.

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Peak Inflation (not what you think)

For once, I find myself in agreement with a mainstream article published over at Bloomberg. Notable Fed supporters without fail, this one maybe represents a change in tone. Perhaps the cheerleaders are feeling the heat and are seeking Jay Powell’s exit for him?

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Gravitas: Leaked paper hints at Russia’s economic collapse

A leaked paper from the Russian finance ministry said the country's GDP will contract by 12%. The economic crisis could force Putin to rethink his war strategy. Palki Sharma tells you more.

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The Financial Quarterback Josh Jalinski guest Jeffrey Snider

Jeffrey Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments. He is not an economist, which is probably why he's been able to develop a working model of the global monetary system.

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Synchronizing Chinese Prices (and consequences)

It isn’t just the vast difference between Chinese consumer prices and those in the US or Europe, China’s CPI has been categorically distinct from China’s PPI, too. That distance hints at the real problem which the whole is just now beginning to confront, having been lulled into an inflationary illusion made up from all these things.

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Gravitas: Will Russia invade Finland next?

Finland's leaders have agreed to seek NATO membership 'without delay'. Russia has vowed to retaliate if Finland's membership bid is accepted. Will Putin invade Finland next?

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Pressure grows on Europe to secure alternative gas supply | Russia sanctions Gazprom subsidiaries

Pressure on Europe to secure alternative gas supplies increased on Thursday as Moscow imposed sanctions on European subsidiaries of state-owned Gazprom a day after Ukraine stopped a major gas transit route.

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Gravitas LIVE: Will Putin attack Finland next? Russia ending “current phases of war” | Palki Sharma

Gravitas LIVE: Will Putin attack Finland next? Russia ending “current phases of war” | Palki Sharma - Will Putin attack Finland next? - Russia ending “the current phases of war”

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Neither Confusing Nor Surprising: Q1’s Worst Productivity Ever, April Decline In Employed

Maybe last Friday’s pretty awful payroll report shouldn’t have been surprising; though, to be fair, just calling it awful will be surprising to most people. Confusion surrounds the figures for good reason, though there truly is no reason for the misunderstanding itself. Apart from Economists and “central bankers” who’d rather everyone look elsewhere for the real problem.

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Impact of drought in Somalia exacerbated by Ukraine war | WION Climate Tracker

Some of the most vulnerable nations globally like Somalia stand at the risk of increased food insecurity and water scarcity, this is not just due to climate but now also because of the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Jeff Snider on how Russia is using the eurodollar system despite sanctions

Paul Buitink talks to Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Jeff explains how Russia, despite the sanctions, is still using the eurodollar system to transact internationally, for example by using off-shore banks across the world and middle-men in China and India.

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Arctic border town of Kirkenes in Norway freezes ties with Russia | WION

Norway, which is NATO's northernmost flank, shares land and maritime borders with Russia. The border town of Kirkenes has long been pointed to as a symbol of cross-border harmony in the Arctic but people there are now adapting to a new reality.

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