Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Virus Z: A Thought Experiment

Let's run a thought experiment on a hypothetical virus we'll call Virus Z, a run-of-the-mill respiratory variety not much different from other viruses which are 1) very small; 2) mutate rapidly and 3) infect human cells and modify the cellular machinery to produce more viral particles.

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Mass extinction: what can stop it? | The Economist

The world’s animals and wildlife are becoming extinct at a greater rate than at any time in human history. Could technology help to save threatened species? Read our latest technology quarterly on protecting biodiversity: https://econ.st/3dqdkKN Listen to our Babbage podcast episode on the biodiversity crisis: https://econ.st/3dqfPww Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest stories:...

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Anyone Remember That Whole SLR Cliff?

Does anyone remember the SLR “cliff?” Of course you don’t, because in the end it didn’t seem to make any difference. For a few weeks, it was kind of ubiquitous if only in the sense that it was another one of those deep plumbing issues no one seems able to understand (forcing all the “experts” to run to Investopedia in order write something up about it).

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The Systemic Risk No One Sees

My recent posts have focused on the systemic financial risks created by Federal Reserve policies that have elevated moral hazard (risks can be taken without consequence) and speculation to levels so extreme that they threaten the stability of the entire financial system.

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When Expedient “Saves” Become Permanent, Ruin Is Assured

The belief that the Federal Reserve possesses god-like powers and wisdom would be comical if it wasn't so deeply tragic, for the Fed doesn't even have a plan, much less wisdom. All the Fed has is an incoherent jumble of expedient, panic-driven "saves" it cobbled together in the 2008-2009 Global Financial Meltdown that it had made inevitable.

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A Clear Balance of Global Inflation Factors

Back at the end of May, Germany’s statistical accounting agency (deStatis) added another one to the inflationary inferno raging across the mainstream media. According to its flash calculations, German consumer prices last month had increased by the fastest rate in 13 years.

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Inflation Isn’t Just The Outlier, The Inflation In It Is, Too

Following the same recent pattern as the BLS and its CPI, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s (BEA) PCE Deflator ran up hotter in May 2021 than its already high increase during April. The latter’s headline consumer basket rose 3.91% year-over-year, its fastest pace since August 2008.

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America’s Social Order is Unraveling

What kind of nation boasts a record-high stock market and an unraveling social order? Answer: a failed nation, a nation that has substituted artifice for realism for far too long, a nation that now depends on illusory phantoms of capital, prosperity and democracy to prop up a crumbling facade of "wealth" that the populace now understands is largely in the hands of a few families and corporations, most of which pay little to support the citizenry...

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China’s economy: what’s its weak spot? | The Economist

The number of working-age people in China is shrinking. Could this threaten the country’s rise as an economic superpower? Read more here: https://econ.st/3dgzqz0 Find all of our coverage about China here: https://econ.st/3qpd7wz Read our special report about Chinese youth: https://econ.st/2TXmwzd Is China’s population shrinking? https://econ.st/3vTXxu2 Listen to an episode of “The Intelligence” podcast about China’s census:...

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It Always Ends The Same Way: Crisis, Crash, Collapse

One of the most under-appreciated investment insights is courtesy of Mike Tyson: "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." At this moment in history, the plan of most market participants is to place their full faith and trust in the status quo's ability to keep asset prices lofting ever higher, essentially forever.

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Sure Looks Like Supply Factors

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be inflationary overheating. Or not? As more time passes and the situation further evolves, the more these recent price deviations conform to the supply shock scenario rather than a truly robust economy showing no signs of slowing down.

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

Weekly Market Pulse on June 21, where we look at significant things from last week's events with Joe Calhoun.

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Front-Running the Crash

We have a fine-sounding word for running with the herd: momentum. When the herd is running, those who buy what the herd is buying and sell what the herd is selling are trading momentum, which sounds so much more professional and high-brow than the noisy, dusty image of large mammals (and their trading machines) mindlessly running with the herd.

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Did covid-19 leak from a Chinese lab? | The Economist

For most of 2020 the theory that covid-19 leaked from a Chinese lab was dismissed as unlikely. In the past few months it has gained currency. Our experts explain why. Read more here: https://econ.st/3gzOVnV 00:00 - Where did covid-19 come from? 00:44 - What evidence is there? 02:06 - Why was the lab-leak theory dismissed? 03:23 - Could the lab leak have been deliberate? 04:07 - Could covid-19 be man made? 05:51 - How are the origins being...

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The FOMC Accidentally Exposes Itself (Reverse Repo-style)

Initially, the dots got all the attention. Though these things are beyond hopeless, the media needs them to write up its account of a more fruitful monetary policy outcome because markets continue to discount that entirely.

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Copper Corroding PPI

Yesterday, lumber. Today, copper. The “doctor” has been in reverse for better than two months now, with trading in the current session pounding the commodity to a new multi-month low. Down almost $0.19 for the day, an unusual and eye-opening loss, this brings the cumulative decline to 9.2% since the peak way back on May 11.

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Another Round of Transitory: US Retail Sales & (revised) IP

Same stuff, different month. We can basically reprint both what was described yesterday about supply curves not keeping up with exaggerated demand as well as the past two months of commentary on Retail Sales plus Industrial Production each for the US. Quite on the nose, US demand for goods, anyway, is eroding if still artificially very high.

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

Weekly Market Pulse with Alhambra Investments, interview with Joe Calhoun.

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Seven Things Nobody Talks About that Will Eventually Matter–A Lot

Perhaps it shouldn't surprise us that everything that will eventually matter is ignored until it does matter--but by then it's too late. Here's a short list to start the discussion: 1. The Federal Reserve has transformed the American populace into a nation of dismayingly over-confident gamblers.

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Crypto: will the bitcoin dream succeed? | The Economist

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies set out to upend the financial order and replace conventional money. Bitcoin has certainly disrupted the global financial system, but can it ever live up to the hype? Read our latest report on cryptocurrency: https://econ.st/3wnYfRr Find The Economist’s latest finance and economics coverage: https://econ.st/3pCKsnp Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage:...

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