Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Collateral Shortage…From *A* Fed Perspective

It’s never just one thing or another. Take, for example, collateral scarcity. By itself, it’s already a problem but it may not be enough to bring the whole system to reverse. A good illustration would be 2017. Throughout that whole year, T-bill rates (4-week, in particular) kept indicating this very shortfall, especially the repeated instances when equivalent bill yields would go below the RRP “floor” and often stay there for prolonged periods....

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Abortion and the Supreme Court: what’s at stake? | The Economist

A leaked draft opinion suggests the Supreme Court is poised to overturn the right to abortion in America. If this ruling goes ahead, women's rights are in danger. 00:00 - Abortion rights are under threat 00:45 - Why the leak was unprecedented 01:35 - Women’s rights and lives are in danger 02:22 - Will this be the first constitutional right to be erased? 02:50 - Could other constitutional rights be struck down? 04:16 - Are Americans losing trust...

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Some ‘Core’ ‘Inflation’ Difference(s)

The FOMC meets next week, with everyone everywhere expecting a 50 bps rate hike to be announced on Wednesday. Yesterday’s “unexpected” and “shocking” negative GDP is unlikely to deter anyone on the committee.

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Russia-Ukraine war: Sweden alleges Russian plane violated airspace | International News | WION

Sweden has claimed that a Russian plane briefly violated its airspace on Friday. In a statement, Swedish Defence minister, Peter Hultqvist said, "It is totally unacceptable to violate Swedish airspace. This action is unprofessional."

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict Live News Updates: Shelling continues in Ukraine’s Kharkiv

It has been several weeks since the Russian invasion of Ukraine started, and scores of civilians have lost their lives in the conflict. Armies of both countries have been involved in intense fights since Russian troops entered Ukraine. Now, Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine.

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Is Housing a Bubble That’s About to Crash?

We are all prone to believing the recent past is a reliable guide to the future. But in times of dynamic reversals, the past is an anchor thwarting our progress, not a forecast. Are we heading into another real estate bubble / crash?

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Synchronized Manufacturing, Hopefully Not Mao

This is one of those cases when Inigo Montoya, the lovable if fictional rapscallion from the movie The Princess Bride, would pop into the scene to devastatingly deliver his now famous rebuke. Last week, China’s one-man Dear Leader said that the country was going to start up its own version of Build Back Better.

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‘Most of 1.5 million tonnes of grain stolen by Russia’, says Ukraine

Russian forces have stolen grain from the areas of Ukraine they occupy, Ukraine's deputy agriculture minister said recently. However, Kremlin denied the grain theft claims.

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Press freedom: why you should be worried | The Economist

Global press freedom is facing its greatest challenge in decades—not just in authoritarian countries, but in democracies too. Governments are using more subtle tactics to muzzle the media. What’s going on and why is it so worrying? 00:00 – Introduction: global press freedom is in decline 01:08 – How journalists are being harassed and silenced in India 04:00 – The decline of press freedom in democracies 06:53 – Press freedom in Malta: the murder...

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What Really ‘Raises’ The Rising ‘Dollar’

It’s one of those things which everyone just accepts because everyone says it must be true. If the US$ is rising, what else other than the Federal Reserve. In particular, the Fed has to be raising rates in relation to other central banks; interest rate differentials.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Welcome Back To The Old Normal

Stagflation. It’s a word that strikes fear in the hearts of investors, one that evokes memories – for some of us – of bell bottoms, disco, and Jimmy Carter’s American malaise. The combination of weak growth and high inflation is the worst of all worlds, one that required a transformational leader and a cigar-chomping central banker to defeat the last time it came around.

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WION-VOA Co-Production: Russia-Ukraine war ongoings & How is Washington navigating Covid?

U.S. President Joe Biden called for the U.S. Congress to pass $33 billion in additional security and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. For more analysis, we're joined by VOA's Correspondent, Jessica Stone.

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From special operation to war: Will Putin declare war against Ukraine?

Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered third month now. From special operation to war, will Putin declare war against Ukraine? Watch UK's Defence Secretary's take on Ukraine conflict.

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Is It Recession?

According to today’s advance estimate for first quarter 2022 US real GDP, the third highest (inflation-adjusted) inventory build on record subtracted nearly a point off the quarter-over-quarter annual rate. Yes, you read that right; deducted from growth, as in lowered it. This might seem counterintuitive since by GDP accounting inventory adds to output.

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Doom Porn and Empty Optimism

If we can't discern the difference between doom-porn and investing in self-reliance, then solutions will continue to be out of reach. I'm often accused of calling 783 of the last two bubble pops (or was it 789? Forgive the imprecision). Like many others who have publicly explored the notion that the status quo isn't actually sustainable despite its remarkable tenaciousness, I am pilloried as a doom-and-gloomer (among other things, ahem).

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Rape in the British military: women speak out | The Economist

Almost two-thirds of women in the British armed forces have experienced sexual harassment, bullying or discrimination, yet few report their experience because of a culture of fear and impunity. What creates this culture, and how can it be addressed? 00:00 - Sexual harrassment in the British armed forces 01:17 - A culture of sexual harrassment 05:03 - Harassment can lead to serious assault 06:59 - Why women are often silenced by the military 10:30...

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Historic Inventory Continued In March, But Is It All Price Illusion, Too?

The Census Bureau today released its advanced estimates for March trade. These include, among other accounts like imports and exports, preliminary results reported by retailers and wholesalers. That means, for our purposes, inventories. Oh my, was there ever more inventory. It was, apparently, widely expected that following an avalanche of goods building up over the previous five months the situation might calm down a touch.

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Euro$ #5 in Goods

Last Friday, S&P Global (the merged successor to IHS Markit) reported that its PMI for German manufacturing fell to 54.1. It hadn’t been that low for more than a year and a half. Worse than that, the index for New Orders dropped below 50 for the first time since the middle of 2020. The excuses are plentiful, as there’s COVID, supply problems, Russia, a drop in demand. Wait, what was that last one?

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Dr Fauci: follow the science | The Economist

Death threats, misinformation and dedication to public service: Dr Anthony Fauci discusses his personal experiences of the covid–19 pandemic with The Economist’s deputy editor, Edward Carr. 00:00 - Who is Dr Anthony Fauci? 00:38 - Should scientists be apolitical? 01:30 - The importance of political neutrality 03:55 - Being a scientist in public service 05:30 - Has science become politicised? Watch the full discussion here:...

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Russian troops to unilaterally stop all hostilities to allow civilian evacuation in Mariupol

Russia has announced that it will allow civilians to evacuate from Azovstal steel plant amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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