Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Financial Forecast 2025-2032: Please Don’t Be Naive

2024-04-15

by

2024-04-15

Rather than attempt to evade Caesar's reach, a better strategy might be to 'go gray': blend in, appear average. Let's start by stipulating that I don't "like" this forecast. I'm not "talking my book" (for example, promoting nuclear power because I own shares in a uranium mine) or issuing this forecast because I favor it.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

2024-04-15

by

2024-04-15

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report that wasn’t actually that bad (see below). Not that my – or your – opinion about these things matters all that much to the market.

Read More »

Sound Money Vs. Fiat Currency: Trade and Credit Are the Wild Cards

2024-04-11

by

2024-04-11

We need to start thinking outside the current system, which has no solutions.

Read More »

Global Recession’s Winners and Losers

2024-03-06

by

2024-03-06

The few winners of global recession will use the decline as a means to break the chokehold of unproductive BAU elites.

Read More »

Rates, Risk and Debt: The Unavoidable Reckoning Ahead

2024-02-26

by

2024-02-26

Policy errors have consequences, and we're only in the first inning of those consequences.

Read More »

How the Economy Changed: There’s No Bargains Left Anywhere

2024-02-23

by

2024-02-23

What changed in the economy is now nobody can afford to get by on working-class wages because there's no longer any bargains.

Read More »

Digital Service Dumpster Fires and Shadow Work

2024-02-14

by

2024-02-14

One wonders what we're paying for via taxes, products and services, when we end up having to do so much of the work ourselves for nothing.

Read More »

Market Morsels: ISM and Recession

2024-02-07

by

2024-02-07

The ISM manufacturing survey has been below 50 for 15 months in a row and sits today at 49.1. This survey, along with a lot of other manufacturing data and anecdotes, has been cited repeatedly by the economic bears as evidence we are heading for recession. That, of course, hasn’t happened and that is consistent with this indicator.

Read More »

Irony Alert: "Outlawing" Recession Has Made a Monster Recession Inevitable

2024-02-07

by

2024-02-07

Those who came of age after 1982 have never experienced a real recession, and so they're unprepared for anything other than guarantees of rescue and permanent expansion.

Read More »

What the Fed Accomplished: Distorted the Economy, Enriched the Rich and Crushed the Middle Class

2024-01-04

by

2024-01-04

The mainstream holds the Fed is busy planning a return to the glory days of zero interest rates, but ZIRP is on the downside of the S-Curve; it's done, gone, history.

Read More »

Macro: GDP Q3 — Inflationary BOOM!

2023-12-22

by

2023-12-22

Outside of the pandemic defined as 2020 and 2021, this past quarter was the 5th best quarter for nominal GDP in the last 25 years.

Read More »

Macro: Philly Fed Mfg Survey — Umm

2023-12-22

by

2023-12-22

Tis was a poor number. The headline dropped from -5.9 to -10.5. The more eye popping number was the Index for New Orders which dropped from 1.3 to -25.6.

Read More »

The Invisible Court’s Verdict: You Are Hereby Exiled to Digital Siberia

2023-11-09

by

2023-11-09

As in the Gulag it replicates, the innocent are swept up with the guilty in a disconcertingly unjust ratio.

Read More »

Macro: Banking: Senior Loan Officer’s Survey and Lending

2023-11-08

by

2023-11-08

Banks continue to tighten lending standards across all sectors. This has eased a bit from the July survey. Banks continue to widen spreads across all sectors. The percentage of banks widening spreads has also eased a tad.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Monetary Policy Is Hard

2023-11-06

by

2023-11-06

So, is that it? Have rates peaked? Is the long bear market finally over?  The market decided last week that interest rates have peaked for this cycle. And if rates have peaked then all the assets that have been pressured over the last two years can finally come up for air. Since October 18, 2021, over two years ago, investors have had few places to hide. Of the major asset classes we follow closely, only two – gold and commodities – were higher by...

Read More »

Macro: Employment Report

2023-11-03

by

2023-11-03

Wall street cheered the fact that we added fewer jobs (150,000) than expected (179,000) in October. This was a welcome relief after the hot September number that was revised down from 336,000 to 279,000.

Read More »

Macro: Challenger Job Cuts — Improvement throughout the year

2023-11-02

by

2023-11-02

We had a bad 1st quarter relative to historic averages for job cuts. But the situation has gotten better throughout the year. In the 3rd quarter of 2023 less people are losing their job relative to the average 3rd quarter going back to 1989.

Read More »

Macro: Factory Orders — revision

2023-11-02

by

2023-11-02

This was a slight downward revision. Nothing to cheer and really nothing to write home about. September Durable Goods were revised down .1% MoM in Sept and .05% MoM in Aug.

Read More »

Macro: Sep CPI stuck at 3.7% YOY

2023-10-13

by

2023-10-13

The most anticipated release of the week came in … “Unchanged” or sticky stuck from the August at 3.7% yoy. But it’s worth mentioning as we will discuss below that this is up from June CPI which was 3.09% yoy. Core CPI which excludes food and energy because of their volatility sits at 4.13% yoy down from 4.39% last month. Let’s look under the hood a bit because headlines will mention “sticky” CPI and there are some reasons that CPI will indeed...

Read More »

Financial Savvy Ways To Thrive In The Auto Market

2023-05-08

by

2023-05-08

  The auto market can be challenging and unpredictable, but with the right strategies and insights, automotive business owners can thrive. This article will explore the financial savvy ways to succeed in the auto market, focusing on understanding the current landscape, saving money, using modern financial tools and AI, and navigating warranties and service contracts. …

Read More »