Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Drivers for the Week Ahead

Some are holding out hope but we think the stimulus package remains dead; Fed releases its Beige Book report Wednesday; there is a full slate of Fed speakers this week. Fed manufacturing surveys for October will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported Thursday; BOC releases results of its Q3 Business Outlook Survey Monday.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Risk assets are coming off a tough week. The dollar was bid across the board except for the yen, which outperformed slightly. The only EM currencies to gain against the dollar were KRW and CLP. The major US equity indices somehow managed to eke out very modest gains but stock markets across Europe sank as the viral spread threatens to slam economic activity again.

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5 Estate Planning Myths That Can Derail Your Estate Plan

You spend a lifetime earning, saving, acquiring. But the old adage is true—you can’t take it with you. So, what do you do with your assets when you’re gone? How do you want them distributed? That’s where a good estate plan comes in.

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Dollar Gains as Market Sentiment Goes South

Virus restrictions across Europe continue to sour sentiment; the dollar is benefiting from the risk-off backdrop. The stimulus package is deader than Elvis; Fed manufacturing surveys for October will start to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported; Chile is expected to keep rates steady at 0.5%.

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Why We’re Doomed: Our Delusional Faith in Incremental Change

Better not to risk any radical evolution that might fail, and so failure is thus assured. When times are good, modest reforms are all that's needed to maintain the ship's course. By "good times," I mean eras of rising prosperity which generate bigger budgets, profits, tax revenues, paychecks, etc., eras characterized by high levels of stability and predictability.

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Dollar Bounce Remains Modest as Headwinds Build

The dollar is making a modest comeback; stimulus talks have hit a dead end; we get more US inflation readings for September. Brexit talks continue ahead of the EU summit Thursday and Friday; a new bill by the UK government could change the investment landscape in the country.

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Dollar Bleeding Stanched as Markets Search for Direction

Markets have a bit of a risk-off feel today; the dollar bleeding has been stanched for now; IMF releases its updated World Economic Outlook. A stimulus package before the election appears doomed; Fed’s Barkin and Daly speak; a big data week for the US kicks off with September CPI today.

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Our Simulacrum Economy

In the hyper-real casino, everyone has access to the terrors of losing, but only a few know the joys of the rigged games that guarantee a few big winners by design. Readers once routinely chastised me for over-using simulacrum to describe our economy and society.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

Dollar losses are accelerating; the virtual IMF/World Bank meetings begin Monday. A big stimulus package before the election still seems unlikely; there are a fair amount of Fed speakers during this holiday-shortened week.

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Dollar Slide Continues as US Fiscal Stimulus Remains Questionable

The dollar remains heavy; stimulus talks may or may not be dead; the White House is still sending mixed signals. This is another quiet day in terms of US data; Canada reports September jobs data. We got some more eurozone IP readings for August; following Greece yesterday, it’s Italy’s turn today to register another record low for its 10-year bond yield.

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It Just Isn’t Enough

The Department of Labor attached a technical note to its weekly report on unemployment claims. The state of California has announced that it is suspending the processing of initial claims filed by (former) workers in that state.

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A Hard Rain Is Going to Fall

The status quo is about to discover that it can't stop the hard rain or protect its fragile sandcastles. You'll recognize A Hard Rain Is Going to Fall as a cleaned-up rendition of Bob Dylan's classic "A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall".

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Dollar Remains Heavy as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

The US Vice Presidential debate was a comparatively cordial affair, though the impact on the election is likely to be limited; polls continue to move in favor of Biden, including in swing states. The weak dollar narrative under a Democratic sweep continues to play out; the outlook for fiscal stimulus is as cloudy as ever; FOMC minutes contained no big surprises.

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Is There Enough?

It’s just not fast enough. And with the labor market spitting out numbers across a broad economic cross-section that look increasingly tired suggesting an economy running out of momentum, there’s the added urgency of time.

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Dollar Softens and US Curve Steepens as Odds of Democratic Sweep Rise

The dollar remains under pressure; the US curve continues to steepen; a compromise on fiscal stimulus before the election still seems unlikely; this is another quiet day in terms of US data. President Lagarde said the ECB is prepared to inject fresh monetary stimulus to support the recovery; we expect the ECB to increase its PEPP in Q4.

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Who’s Negative? The Marginal American Worker

The BLS’s payroll report draws most of the mainstream attention, with the exception of the unemployment rate (especially these days). The government designates the former as the Current Employment Statistics (CES) series, and it intends to measure factors like payrolls (obviously), wages, and earnings from the perspective of the employers, or establishments.

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Things Change

Things change, supposedly immutable systems crumble and delusions die. That's the lay of the land in the  The Empire of Uncertainty I described yesterday.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

The US political outlook has been upended by recent developments; lack of a significant safe haven bid for the dollar so far is telling. This is a very quiet week in terms of US data; FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday; there is a full slate of Fed speakers.

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Dollar Remains Soft but Sterling Pounded by Brexit Risks

The dollar remains under pressure as market sentiment continue to improve; stimulus talks were extended. Two major US airlines announced significant job furloughs starting today; US data for September will continue  to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – September (VIDEO)

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun and Alhambra's Bob Williams look at data from the past month and discuss what it means for the economy.

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