Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

Week Ahead: More Evidence US Consumption and Output are Expanding, and RBNZ and Norges Bank to Hike

After two-quarters of contraction, many still do not accept that the US economy is in a recession. Federal Reserve officials have pushed against it, as has Treasury Secretary Yellen. The nearly 530k rise in July nonfarm rolls, more than twice the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey, and a new cyclical low in unemployment (3.5%) lent credibility to their arguments. If Q3 data point to a growing economy, additional support will likely be...

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Heading into the Weekend, Dollar’s Downside Momentum Stalls

Overview: The markets are putting the finishing touches on this week’s activity. Japan, returning from yesterday’s holiday bought equities, and its major indices jumped more than 2%. China, South Korea, and Australia struggled. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is firmer for the third consecutive session. It is up about 1.3% this week. US futures are also firmer after reversing earlier gains yesterday to close lower on the day. The US 10-year yield is flat near...

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US Dollar Soft while Consolidating Yesterday’s Drop

Overview: The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s losses but is still trading with a heavier bias against the major currencies and most emerging market currencies. The US 10-year yield is soft below 2.77%, while European yields are mostly 2-4 bp higher.

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Is it All Really about Today’s US CPI Print?

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias ahead of the July CPI report. The intraday momentum indicators are overextended, and this could set the stage for the dollar to recover in North America.

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US Dollar Offered but Stretched Intraday

The US dollar is trading heavily against all the major currencies, led by the Norwegian krone and euro. Emerging market currencies are also firmer. However, risk-appetites seem subdued. Even though most large bourses in Asia Pacific advanced but Japan and Hong Kong, European markets are nursing small losses and US futures are little changed. 

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Dog Days

The dog days of August for the Northern Hemisphere are here and the capital markets are relatively subdued. Equities are firmer. The notable exceptions in Asia was China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has advanced for the last three weeks.

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Inflation

(Traveling and unable to provide a technical overview this week.) Rising price pressures, stronger and more persistent than generally expected, has been the main challenge for consumers, businesses, and policymakers. It will stay top of mind in the week ahead as both the world's two largest economies, the US and China, report July consumer and producer prices.  During the Great Depression, the central governments discovered their balance sheets,...

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Downside Risks to the US Employment Report?

Overview: The US dollar enjoys a firmer bias against the major currencies ahead of the July employment data. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Asian currencies are generally firm while central Europe is a bit softer. Some detect a relaxation in tensions around Taiwan, though China’s aerial harassment continues. Taiwanese shares jumped 2.25% to lead the region that saw China’s CSI 300 rally over 1%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is giving back yesterday’s...

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Bitcoin technical analysis 05 Aug 2022

BTCUSD is in the middel of the presented regression channel and traders seem to be waiting for the next move. See also Bitcoin traders are battling it out in the short term. Find out why in this video. https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/bitcin-traders-are-battling-it-out-in-the-short-term-20220804/ ETHUSD technical analysis @ 1663.27 on 05 Aug. Will the bull flag be broken to the upside? -frxYQ

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Russell futures technical analysis for 05 Aug 2022

Major US indices open mixed. NASDAQ up. S&P near unchanged Dow industrial average marginally lower. https://www.forexlive.com/news/major-us-indices-open-mixed-nasdaq-up-sp-near-unchanged-20220804/ Russell 2000 broke up the bull flag and showing some resting, probably temporarily.

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Nasdaq futures technical analysis 05 Aug 2022

Also see Nasdaq related news at Forexlive as USD slides, oil falls to the worst since Feb 2 https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-usd-slides-oil-falls-to-the-worst-since-feb-2-20220804/ Other technical analysis from ForexLive https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis

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ETHUSD technical analysis @ 1663.27 on 05 Aug. Will the bull flag be broken to the upside?

Etheruem technical analysis follow up to https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/profitable-ethereum-short-position-ethusd-technical-analysis-snapshot-20220802/ And previously to the trade idea provided in the 1st technical analysis for ETHUSD on https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/ethereum-technical-analysis-20220731/

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Bitcoin traders are battling it out in the short term

The price of bitcoin has been consolidating near low levels and maintains a negative bias on the daily chart. However, there is some ambiguity from a short term perspective for the pair. In this video, I breakdown the battle that is going on and explain the risks and bias from a technical perspective..

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The morning technical review fore August 4 of the major currencies. GBP falls. EURUSD stays confined

The USDJPY finds sellers near the 200 hour MA and USDCHF cracks back below the 100 day MA and tests 200 hour MA below

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Over to the BOE

Overview: Strong gains in US equities yesterday and easing fears following Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan helped lift most Asia Pacific equities, with Hong Kong leading the way with a 2% rally. Taiwan, Australia, and India did not participate in the regional rally. The Stoxx 600 is edging higher today. It was flat on the week through yesterday. US futures are a little firmer. The greenback is offered against the major currencies led the Antipodeans. The...

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VIDEO: The EURUSD is higher but remains stuck in the mud.The USDJPY has bullish tendencies

The morning video looks at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD

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Market Takes China’s Response in Stride, Risk Appetites Recover

Overview: The market is judging China's response to Speaker Pelosi's visit in a mild way and risk appetites returned. Equity markets are higher, even though Chinese shares weakened. Europe's Stoxx 600 is edging higher after two days of small loses, and US futures enjoy a firmer bias. The surge in US rates yesterday has calmed. The US 10-year yield is firm near 2.76% and the 2-year yield is up a couple of basis points near 3.07%. European yields are...

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VIDEO: The EURUSD made a break and failed. The USDJPY got closer to key support.Key levels in play.

A look at a number of currency pairs in this morning video including the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD and the AUDUSD. What levels are in play? Watch and find out.

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Aussie Hit with Profit-Taking after RBA Hikes 50 bp

Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has added to the risk-off mood of the capital markets today. Most of the large Asia Pacific equities sold off, with Australia and India being notable exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the second consecutive session, and by the most (~0.60%) since mid-July. US futures are also weaker. Benchmark 10-year rates are lower.

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ETHUSD technical analysis and how to manage a profitable short trade

A followup to the technical analysis on Ethereum and its short trade idea from 2 agao go, provided here: --nI Now that etheruem is at $1560, the trade is successful, but the stop loss of the ETHUSD short trade is too far. What should be done? Lower the entrance stop to prevent loss? Or abandon the trade? Or partial profit, and how much?

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