Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

Macro and Prices: Sentiment Swings Between Inflation and Recession

(On vacation for the rest of the month.  Going to Portugal.  Commentary will resume on June 1.   Good luck to us all.) The market is a fickle mistress. The major central banks were judged to be behind the inflation curve.

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Sentiment Remains Fragile, and the Euro and Sterling can barely Sustain even Modest Upticks

Equities are recovering from dramatic losses.  Today, the Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Kospi surged by more than 2%. 

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Dollar and Yen Surge

Overview: Global equities are bleeding lower. Several large markets in the Asia Pacific region, including Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India are off more than 2%. Japan and Australian bourses fell by more than 1.5%.

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Greenback Softens Ahead of CPI

Overview: It appears that investors have become more concerned about growth prospects and less about inflation in recent days. The US 10-year yield that had flirted with 3.20% at the start of the week is now around 2.93%.

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No Rest for the Weary

Overview: Risk appetites are improving on the margin. Asia Pacific stocks still fell after the sharp losses on Wall Street on Monday. Still, China, Taiwan and Indian equities traded higher. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a four-day 6.5%+ slide and is up around 1.2% in late European morning turnover.

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Forex Live – The Premier Source of Financial News for Professional Traders

Discover real-time market news, technical analysis, live charts and quotes, education, and more at https://www.forexlive.com/

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The Week Ahead: US CPI and PPI Set to Soften

The Fed's 50 bp rate hike is behind us.  Another 50 bp hike is expected next month. The April employment report will do little to calm the anxiety about the "too tight" labor market. 

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Fed Day

Overview: The markets are mostly treading water ahead of the FOMC decision later today. Tech stocks tumbled in Hong Kong and the Hang Seng fell a little more than 1%, while India was the worst performer in the region falling over 2% following an unexpected and intra-meeting hike by the Reserve Bank of India.

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Martin Schlegel appointed to SNB

Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

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RBA Surprises with a 25 bp Hike

Overview: The large bourses in Asia Pacific except Hong Kong eased.  Japan and China's mainland markets are closed for the holiday.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.6%.  It gapped lower yesterday and has not entered the gap today.  US futures are a little softer. 

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The Euro Continues to Stuggle to Sustain Even Modest Upticks, but Specs Still Long in the Futures

Overview: The US dollar begins the new week on a firm note ahead of the mid-week conclusion of the FOMC meeting.  Many centers are closed for the May Day holiday, making for thinner market conditions.  Equities are mostly lower in the markets that traded today.  This includes Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India in the Asia Pacific. 

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May 2022 Monthly

The general contours of the business and investment climate are being shaped by three forces.  First, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions boost price pressures and slow growth.

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Did China’s Politburo Throw Markets a Lifeline?

Overview: Speculation that a midday statement by China's Politburo signals new efforts to support the economy ahead of  next week's holiday appears to have stirred the animal spirits. 

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Central banks have taken off the gloves in the fight against inflation

Central banks have taken off the gloves in the fight against inflation. They’ll win but global growth will lose out. The market is no longer convinced that global central banks can tame inflation without a major hit to growth. Maybe that's not a recession but it's a much slower growth paradigm than assumed. We’re now pricing in terminal rates at the highest levels since before the financial crisis and the risks from there remain to the upside....

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China’s Covid Sends Commodities Lower and helps the Dollar Extend Gains

Overview:  Fears that the Chinese lockdowns to fight Covid, which have extended for four weeks in Shanghai, are not working, and may be extended to Beijing has whacked equity markets, arrested the increase in bond yields, and lifted the dollar. 

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Taking A Deep Dive Into Forex & World Currencies With Marc Chandler

Economist Danielle DiMartino Booth sits down with Marc Chandler. About the guest: Marc Chandler is a foreign exchange market analyst, writer, speaker, and professor. On August 19, 2009, Bloomberg L.P. published Chandler's first book, Making Sense of the Dollar. Marc has been covering the global capital markets for more than 30 years, including stints as the global head of currency strategy for both HSBC and Brown Brothers Harriman. Chandler...

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The Yen Bounces after 13-Day Slide and BOJ Defends Yield Cap

Overview: The record-long yen slide has stalled just shy of JPY129.50, even though the Bank of Japan defended its Yield-Curve Control cap on the 10-year bond and will continue to do so for the next four sessions. The greenback fell to almost JPY128 before steadying.  China again defied expectations for lower rates (loan prime rate), the yuan's sell-off accelerated and slide to its lowest level since last October.

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Yen Blues

Benchmark 10-year bonds yields in the US and Europe are at new highs for the year.  The US yield is approaching 2.90%, while European rates are mostly 5-8 bp higher.  The 10-year UK Gilt yield is up nine basis points to push near 1.98%. The higher yields are seeing the yen's losing streak extend, and the greenback has jumped 1% to around JPY128.45  The dollar is trading lower against the other major currencies but the Swiss franc.

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Greenback Starts New Week on Firm Note

Overview: With many financial centers, especially in Europe, closed for the long holiday weekend, risk-appetites remain in check.  Most Asia Pacific markets fell, and poor earnings from Infosys and Tata Consultancy, saw India pace the decline with a 2% drop.  US futures are also trading with a heavier bias.  Interest rates remain firm.  The US 2- and 10-year yields are up a couple of basis points to 2.47% and 2.85% respectively.  China's GDP...

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Rising US Rates Sends the Yen Lower, but 50 bp Hikes Didn’t Deter Kiwi and Loonie Selling

The dollar rose against the major currencies last week, but the British pound, which eked out a small gain in the holiday-shortened week.  The weakest was the Japanese yen, where rising US yields exerts an irresistible tug lifting the dollar to new 20-year highs. 

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