Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Week Ahead: Is the US Rate Adjustment Nearly Over? Be On Guard for Reversal Patterns

2024-10-12

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2024-10-12

The combination of the stronger-than-expected US September jobs report and the slightly firmer inflation readings lifted US interest rates and the dollar. Several Fed officials spoke, and it did not appear that the employment or price reports changed views as much as it had impacted the capital markets. The September Summary of Economic Projections found a median projection (and 10 officials) that 50 bp of cuts in Q4 would be appropriate, but seven...

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Tomorrow’s China Briefing Did Not Prevent the Continued Slide in Chinese Stocks Today

2024-10-11

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2024-10-11

Overview: The combination of the firmer than expected US CPI and larger than expected rise in initial and continuing jobless claims saw short-term US rates fall, and the odds of a quarter-point cut by the Fed rose from about 83% to about 93%. The Fed funds futures market boosted the odds of another quarter-point cut in December (~90% vs.78%). The dollar initially weakened but recovered, though the key levels held, such as $1.09 in the euro, $1.30...

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AUDUSD trades up and down in trading today with swing areas defining support & resistance.

2024-10-10

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Swing area support and 100 day MA comes in between 0.6685 – 0.6696. Resistance at a swing area starting at 0.67429

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If confused about the price action today, watch this video on the NZDUSD.

2024-10-10

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Sometimes the market balances and battles. In those situations, set your technical levels and listen to the market.

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USDCAD trend move higher continues. Pair is up near 300 pips in a week. What next?

2024-10-10

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The price of the USDCAD tested a swing area and is backing off a little.

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Forex markets react to mixed US data. What next technically for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

2024-10-10

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What levels are in play? What are the technical bias' for the 3 major pairs. Stocks lower. Yields down and up and down.

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Soft US Headline CPI is Unlikely to Be Sufficient to Reanimate Expectations of another Large Fed Cut

2024-10-10

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2024-10-10

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer ahead of the September CPI. The euro and Canadian dollar have recorded new lows for the move. The greenback extended its gains against the yen to JPY149.55 but has fallen to new session lows in the European morning near JPY148.85. Given the pushback against Fed Chair Powell's 50 bp cut last month revealed in the FOMC minutes, it will take more than a soft headline CPI today to renew speculation of another...

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The NZDUSD continued the fall that started last week after the RBNZ rate cut. What next?

2024-10-09

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The pair has now corrected 61.8% of the 2024 trading range and is trying to find support. Can the retracement level hold?

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Sellers in the AUDUSD are looking to increase the bearish bias. What does that look like?

2024-10-09

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In the video, I take a technical at the AUDUSD. The sellers are looking to increase the bearish bias with a technical break below the 38.2% of the move up from the August low at 0.67146

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USDCAD buyers making a play with a break above and away from 100 day moving average

2024-10-09

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The 100-day MA comes in at 1.36819. The September high at 1.36467. That area is now KEY support. A move back below is not good technically in the short term at least.

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Now that the USDCHF has broken higher, can the buyers keep the run going?Key targets ahead

2024-10-09

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The high from last week reached 0.86072 and is the next target. The 38.2% of the move down from the August high is at 0.86312.

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The kickstart video for Oct 9 looks at the technicals that drive the three major FX pairs

2024-10-09

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The EURUSD rotates lower and toward key technical support. The GBPUSD bounces ahead of the 50% retracement again. The USDJPY also bounced off a key corrective support target. A special look at the NZDUSD after the RBNZ 50 bp rate cut.

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CSI 300 Drops 7%, Oil Steadies, and the US Dollar Remains Firm

2024-10-09

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2024-10-09

Overview: We suspect the market overreacted to the US jobs data, which was tainted by the lowest "establishment" response in over two decades and seasonal adjustments were likely thrown off by Hurricane Helene and the 33k strike at Boeing. We think Fed officials, and more speak today, have confirmed that it was not the game changer than many market participants think, which was likely influenced by positioning. It did help facilitate the...

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NZDUSD traders prepare for RBNZ rate decision and place the pair between 100/200 day MAs

2024-10-08

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The 100 and 200-day MAs come in between 0.6097 and 0.61218

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AUDUSD falls below swing area ow/61.8% retracement at 0.6744. That is key ST resistance.

2024-10-08

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The sellers in the AUDUSD are making a play as it looks toward the 100 day MA target on the downside at 0.6688.

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USDCAD makes a break above high from September, 100 day MA and broken 38.2% retracement

2024-10-08

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Can the price stay above 1.3646 now? Buyers on the break will want to see increased upside momentum on the break.

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USDCHF moves into “Red Box” but bounces off 100 hour MA. Buyers in control.

2024-10-08

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The 100-hour MA comes to the rescue and sellers forced its way back into the Red Box in the Asian session. Buyers still in control.

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What are the technicals in play for the 3 major currency pairs today. Watch and learn.

2024-10-08

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Kickstart the forex trading day for October 8 with a technical look at the EURUSD USDJPY and GBPUSD.

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Dollar-Bloc Currencies are Disappointed by the Lack of New Chinese Fiscal Stimulus

2024-10-08

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2024-10-08

Overview: The US dollar is mixed but is mostly consolidating. The Australian dollar is a notable exception. The lack of new fiscal initiatives from China weighed on the Aussie, which is off for the fourth consecutive session. The other dollar-bloc currencies have also seen the recent losses extended. On the other hand, the Japanese yen and euro enjoy a firmer bias. After a dreadful drop in factory order, German industrial production surprised to...

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NZDUSD moved into a cluster of technical levels ahead of the RBNZ rate decision

2024-10-07

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What levels are key and why for the NZDUSD today/this week?

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