Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

August 2022 Monthly

We can hope that August will be quiet. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan do not meet until September. With a snap Italian election on September 25, an Italian political storm may wait for vacationers to return.

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Ethereum technical analysis

Some say the most significant component of technical analysis is price movement. ETHUSD hasn't closed a daily candle around $1700 in 3 days. This indicates a lack of bullish momentum to drive Ethereum to a new price level. Technically, ETH is a bear flag. Bear flags continue downtrends. Bear flags have a strong downward move followed by an upward consolidation channel. ETHUSD looks to be in a channel, even without a bear channel, after touching...

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VIDEO: The USD moves higher after the higher core PCE inflation numbers today

The US core PCE data was a bit stronger than expected and that has pushed the USD higher in early NY trading after moves lower earlier in the day. The core PCE is a favored inflation figure used by the Fed.  The US stocks are mixed in pre-market trading.

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EMU GDP Surprises, while the Yen’s Short Squeeze Continues

Overview: The month-end and slew of data is making for a volatile foreign exchange session, while the rash of earnings has generally been seen as favorable though weakness was seen among the semiconductor chip fabricators. China, Hong Kong, and Japanese equities fell but the other large markets in the region rose.

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GDP came out negative putting the US in a technical recession.How has it impacted the USD?

The USD GDP came in negative which put the US in a technical recession.  How has it impacted the currency markets.  In this video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and the USDCHF from a technical perspective and traders react to the data today and the FOMC decision yesterday.

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Attention Turns to US GDP, Ahead of Tomorrow’s EMU GDP and CPI

Overview: The Federal Reserve delivered its second consecutive 75 bp rate hike, and Chair Powell left the door open for another large hike at the next meeting in September. Yet, the market took away a dovish message and the dollar suffered, rates slipped, and equities rallied.

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FOMC Day. What levels are in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

The FOMC decision will be announced at 2 PM ET with expectations for a 75 basis point hike (see Adam's preview HERE).. Rate decision days can be a long drawn out affair between the rate decision and the press conference that lasts an hour. That time and running headlines can cause additional market volatility. Traders have to decide if they want to take on that additional risk. Those that do, need to fully understand the bias defining levels...

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Fed Day

Overview: Better US news from the likes of Google, Microsoft, and Texas Instruments has helped lift sentiment today and is encouraging a more risk-on mood ahead of the FOMC meeting. News that US President Biden and China’s Xi will talk tomorrow for the second time this year may be notable but does not appear to be impactful in the capital markets.

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Google stock analysis & trade idea after earnings

Yesterday, Google reported earnings. GOOG's 3% after-hours gain after the results report reinforces the view that its 32.5 percent drop from its all-time high (in January 2021) to its most recent low (in May 2022) may be adequate. This may mean good companies have changed enough and bad ones need to shrink. The video presents a technical analysis of the Google stock, with a weekly Anchored VWAP from the COVID collapse bottom. VWAP considers...

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FOMC preview: Watch for a subtle shift

Signs of an economic slowdown are here but what will move markets on the FOMC decision are signs of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. The market can get laser-focused on the small difference between 75 basis points and 100 basis points but what ultimately matters is the terminal destination of rates. Don’t look for the Fed to say anything explicit, like that they see a peak in inflation. The Fed is missing its mandate on price stability badly...

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Bitcoin follows the key technicals that can lead to big dollar moves

In bitcoin, the most active digital currency, traders ask me if they follow technical tools like the ones I use in analyzing currencies, stocks, bonds, and commodities. The answer is .....YES. Traders like to define and limit risk and certain technical tools do just that no matter the instrument. IN this video, I look at the price action of bitcoin on the daily and hourly chart and show how traders can and did, use technicals that led to some...

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VIDEO: The morning technical look at some of the major currency pairs for July 26, 2022

The USD is stronger to start the day. How has that impacted the technical picture for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD

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Greenback Jumps Back

Overview: With the exception of Japan, Taiwan, and India, the large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region traded higher today. The Hang Seng led the move (1.65%) amid reports that Alibaba will seek its primary listing there. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is edging higher today. If it can hold on to the gains, it will be the fourth consecutive rise, the longest advance since May. US futures are slightly under water. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly...

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EDUCATION VIDEO: Do you want to learn how to read a chart from a technical perspective?

In this video, I look at a random pair - the CADJPY - and outline what technical levels have contributed to the downs and ups for the pair. You have the opportunity to find those levels in all your charts and learn how to define and limit your risk and have the potential to benefit from that work.

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VIDEO:A technical look at some of the major currencies to start the US session on July 25, 2022

To kickstart the NY session, what has the price action in the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD showed us so far in the day.  What levels are in play.

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Greenback Softens, but Think Twice about Chasing It

Overview: Aside from political economic risks, three other challenges are emerging. First, the new sub-variant of Covid is spreading rapidly. BA5 reportedly is accounting for around 80% of the new cases. It is better able to evade antibodies from vaccines and earlier infections. Hospitalization rates are also climbing. Dining, retail, and travel may be impacted. Second, the World Health Organization declared monkeypox a global emergency. The US...

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Stock Market Today: Updates, S&P technical analysis and stock market forecast

Asia follows Wall Street's bearish lead from Friday. Slow growth and tighter regulations affect markets. Today's losses on the Australian stock market extend yesterday's. The S&P/ASX 200 fell below 6,800 on Friday. After Snapchat's (SNAP) dismal results and stock price drop last week, investors wonder if this is a sign of bigger economic concerns. Alphabet, Apple, Intel, Microsoft, and Meta will report earnings this week. Oil fell in Asia...

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A technical look at the forex major currencies for the week starting July 25, 2022

In this video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.co;m, takes a look at the technical driving the forex markets for the week starting July 25,2022

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Momentum Indicators Warn of Further Dollar Weakness, but will Sellers Emerge ahead of the FOMC?

The dollar fell against all the major currencies last week but pared the losses ahead of the weekend. The sub-50 EMU flash composite PMI unwound the half-cent gain the euro recorded after the ECB delivered a 50 bp hike to kick off its first tightening since 2011.  

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Bitcoin technical anlalysis & managing a profitable bitcoin short trade

We follow up on the trade idea shown here: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/a-bitcoin-technical-analysis-with-a-bearish-measured-move-20220721/ And how to manage a profitable trade by adjusting a stop in order to break even within a worse case scanrio. We do that by exiting one third of the position at a new take profit target. We show the principle of calculating that. Furthermore, Bitcoin is cooling off after faking out a breakout...

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