Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

Great Graphic: Views Distill to Short Sterling Long Yen Opportunity

We have argued that the road to an orderly Brexit remains arduous and that sterling had entered an important technical area ($1.2500-$1.2530).  At the same time, see the dollar as having approached the upper end of its broad trading range against the yen.  One of the important drivers lifting the dollar was the dramatic rise in US yields. 

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FX Daily, September 23: Dreadful European Flash PMI Drags the Euro Lower

Overview: The critics who claim the ECB's policy response was disproportionate got a rude shock today with the unexpected weakness revealed by the flash PMI. The euro looks to re-visit the lows set recently near $1.0925. Sentiment has also been eroded by the poor South Korean export figures. Asia Pacific equities moved lower, though Tokyo markets were closed. Indian equities, however, continue their pre-weekend surge.

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AUD/CHF technical analysis: Bears looking for a run to a 50 percent mean reversion

AUD/CHF is in the midst of a sell-off which could extend beyond a 38.2% retracement for a 50% reversion. A subsequent pull-back, however, to the resistance and another sell-off will likely make for a high probability set up. AUD/CHF is in the midst of a sell-off which could extend beyond a 38.2% retracement of the August lows to September highs, located at 0.6715, and target the 50% retracement at 0.6674 (meeting the 2019 lows) should the markets...

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FX Daily, September 20: UK and India Provide Excitement Ahead of the Weekend

Overview: A word of optimism on a Brexit deal has sent sterling to its best level in two months. Corporate tax cuts sparked a more than 5% rally in Indian stocks as the week draws to a close. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day losing streak to pare this week's decline.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was flat for the week coming into today, and its four-week advance is at stake.

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FX Daily, September 19: Investors Looking for New Focus

Overview:  Central bank activity is still very much the flavor of the day, but investors are looking for the next focus.  The Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank stood pat, while Indonesia cut for the third consecutive time and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Saudi Arabia quickly followed the Fed. Brazil cut its Selic rate yesterday by 50 bp as widely expected.

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Marc Chandler Previews The Fed Decision

Marc Chandler Previews The Fed Decision

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FX Daily, September 18: FOMC Meets Amid Money Market Pressures

Overview:  News that Saudi Arabia was able to restore 40%-50% of the oil capacity lost by the weekend strike coupled with the Fed's efforts to offset the squeeze in the money markets are allowing the global capital markets to trade quietly ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting.  Equities are little changed with a lower bias that has been seen in the first few sessions this week.

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FX Daily, September 17: Markets Calm(er)

Overview: Oil prices have stabilized after yesterday's surge. Both Brent and WTI are holding on to around $7-$8 a barrel gain. Equity markets are mixed. Some are attributing the losses in Asia Pacific outside of Japan (Nikkei rose its highest level since late April), Korea and Australia to the rise in oil prices. European shares opened lower are straddling unchanged levels.

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CHF/JPY: Eyes on central banks and geopolitics

This week the BoJ will hold its regular policy meeting. Global uncertainty, linked to the trade war and Brexit, has strengthened the value of the Swiss franc and Yen. CHF/JPY is struggling to maintain the upside as the Yen picks up a safe haven bid, anchored on geopolitical developments following a textbook risk-off response in global financial markets following the strike on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities over the weekend.

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FX Daily, September 16: Oil Surge Pared, Markets Remain on Edge

Overview: Oil prices surged in the initial reaction to the unprecedented drone attack on Saudi Arabia facilities. Saudi Arabia may be able to restore around half of the lost production in a few days. Saudi Arabia and other countries, including the US, prepared to tap strategic reserves, oil prices have seen the initial gains halved. Brent is trading near $65 after finishing last week near $60.

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FX Weekly Preview: Six Things to Watch in the Week Ahead

The prospect of a third trade truce between the US and China helped underpin the optimism that extended the rally in equities.  Bond yields continued to back-up after dropping precipitously in August, led by a more than  30 bp increase in the US yield benchmark.  The Dollar Index fell for the second consecutive week, something it had not done this quarter.

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EUR/JPY rallies the hardest vs EUR/CHF as CHF/JPY spikes following ECB

EUR/JPY rallies hard following hawkish ECB cut and trade war optimism. EUR/JPY tracking positive sentiment in financial and commodity markets. While the trade war tensions seem to be easing, with stocks climbing and risk appetite returning in droves to financial and commodity markets, EUR/JPY is up 0.79% on the US session so far following what has been perceived as a hawkish rate cut from the European Central Bank earlier today.

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Cool Video: Thoughts on ECB

A few hours after the ECB announced a new package of monetary accommodation, I joined a discussion on CNBC Asia with Nancy Hungerford and Sir Jegarajah.  Here is a clip of part of our discussion. I make two points.  The first is about the euro's price action.  What impressed me about it was that the euro posted an outside up day, trading on both sides of the previous day's range and closing above its high.

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The ECB over-delivered (and so did the euro)

A month ago, Bank of Finland leader Olli Rehn said it was important to come up with a significant and impactful policy package in September. "When you're working with financial markets, it's often better to overshoot than undershoot, and better to have a very strong package of policy measures than to tinker," he said. The euro slumped on the headlines. The problem was that after you say something like that, market participants adjust...

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The ECB over-delivered (and so did the euro)

A month ago, Bank of Finland leader Olli Rehn said it was important to come up with a significant and impactful policy package in September. “When you’re working with financial markets, it’s often better to overshoot than undershoot, and better to have a very strong package of policy measures than to tinker,” he said. The …

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FX Daily, September 13: Bonds and the Dollar Remain Heavy Ahead of the Weekend

Overview: The markets are digesting ECB's actions and an easing in US-Chinese rhetoric. Next week features the FOMC meeting and three other major central banks (Japan, Switzerland, and Norway). The US equity rally that saw the S&P 500 edge closer to the record high set in late July spilled over to lift Asian markets. Chinese and Korean markets were closed for a mid-autumn holiday.

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FX Daily, September 12: Focus on the ECB, while the Dollar Slips below CNY7.09

Overview: Some gestures in the US-China trade spat have given the market the reason to do what it had been doing, and that is taking on more risk. Equities are higher in Asia Pacific and opened in Europe higher before slipping. The MSCI Asia Pacific and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 are advancing for the fourth consecutive week.

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CHF is ‘not strong in real terms’ – no need for SNB intervention

A note from Standard Chartered on the Swiss National Bank and the Swiss franc. The SNB monetary policy meeting is next week, September 19.In brief, Stan Chart argue the franc is not strong in real termsadjusting EUR/CHF for inflation leaves CHF around 10% weaker than (non-adjusted) current spotno need for SNB to intervene to try to weaken ittherefore the SNB is not likely to cut rates at their meeting, nor intervene in forex markets in the near...

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FX Daily, September 11: Dollar is Firm as ECB is Awaited

Overview: Global equities are extending their recent gains while bonds remain on the defensive.  The dollar is firm.  There is a degree of optimism that is prevailing. There are some more overtures in terms of US-Chinese trade. In Hong Kong, developers and banks led an equity rally on ideas that the political tensions may ease. South Korea reported better trade data for the first ten days of September.

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EUR/CHF technical analysis: Break out or fake out?

The cross needs to hold above the 1.0970s and beyond the 25th July swing lows. To the downside, a break back below the prior descending resistance will spell bad news for the bulls. EUR/CHF has been running higher of late, despite the onset of the European Central Bank - a possible buy the rumour sell the fact scenario as the less committed euro shorts are squeezed.

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