Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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The Greenback Remains Firm but Mostly Inside Yesterday’s Ranges

2026-09-15

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2026-09-15

The rise in oil prices and yields is helping underpin the greenback ahead of tomorrow’s conclusion of the FOMC meeting. The Fed funds futures are discounting almost a 95% chance of a hike, and a second hike is fully priced in before the end of the year. While there was some suggestion by some administration … Continue...

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US Dollar Jumps on Fed Expectations

2026-09-14

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2026-09-14

The combination of heightened expectations for the Federal Reserve to lift rates late this week coupled with the high oil prices have helped lift the US dollar broadly today. Yet, the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a new 3 1/2-year low today.  Among the G10 currencies, the Swedish krona has been the hardest …

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Week Ahead: BOJ and Fed may Pay Heavy Price if They Disappoint the Market

2026-09-12

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2026-09-12

The Middle East war, for which President Trump has claimed victory many times, continues to be a powerful disruptive force. Iran is not hunkering down in a defensive position but has gone on the offensive. The combination of Ukraine's success, hitting Russian refinery capacity, the drop in Saudi output, the increased buying by China, and …

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US Dollar Bid Ahead of ECB Rate Hike

2026-09-10

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2026-09-10

It seems like a low probability scenario that the US can cap long-term US interest rate when hostilities in the Middle East are disrupting the energy market, while China appears not to be showing the extent of the buying restraint It previously did. Moreover, investment grade corporate issuance is projected to raise a record over …

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Oil Higher, Yen Consolidates, US to Reveal Bond Buyback Plans

2026-09-09

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2026-09-09

There are two main developments today. The first is the escalation of the Middle East war has lifted oil prices. October WTI rose 9.7% last week, and with today’s gains, is a little more than 4% this week. This has helped lift bond yields.  The second is the short squeeze of the Japanese yen. Since …

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Yen Short Squeeze Runs into Middle East War Escalation

2026-09-08

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2026-09-08

The yen’s surge that began in the middle of last week continued today. The greenback fell from above JPY160 to a little below JPY153 today, its lowest level in seven months. There still is no evidence of official intervention. The swaps market continues to price a hike next week and most likely another in December. …

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Week Ahead: Yen in Play, ECB Hikes, and US CPI to Impact FOMC

2026-09-05

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2026-09-05

The G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Council held their respective summits. The American agenda was to convince countries to take a harder stand against Chinese exports while still threatening some members with sanctions due to trade or facilitating trade with Iran, including airlines. The G20 failed to agree on a statement.  Media accounts blamed China.  Yet, …

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Yen Stabilizes as Market Awaits US Employment Data

2026-09-04

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2026-09-04

The US dollar is mostly consolidating quietly ahead of the employment data.  Seasonal factors, and the challenge economists experience in forecasting August job growth in part because of the distortions around local governments and the beginning of the new school year.  While Federal Reserve Governor Waller drew attention to next week’s CPI, an unexpected loss …

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The Yen Squeezes Higher, Though Official Fingerprints are Elusive

2026-09-03

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2026-09-03

The main story today is the Japanese yen.  It is sharply higher today.  The move began early North America yesterday.  No one claimed intervention and many, including ourselves, thought it may have been a rate check.  An initial look at the BOJ’s balance sheet suggests that Japan likely did not intervene yesterday.  The dollar trended …

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Bond and Equity Sell-Off Continues, Greenback Extends Gains

2026-09-02

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2026-09-02

The risk averse market conditions persist. Yields are higher and stocks are lower. October WTI set a new contract high as hostilities in the Middle East continue. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite could gap lower when the cash session begins, though ADP private sector jobs estimate will be released before the opening.    The US …

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The Dollar Bounces Back but US Efforts on Rates and the Yen are Being Challenged as Iran Presses Hard

2026-09-01

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2026-09-01

After consolidating softer yesterday, the US dollar has come back bid today. It often does better when US rates are rising unlike many of the other major currencies. However, the dollar’s strength does not reflect is successes on the various fronts the Trump administration has made a stance. The war in the Middle East has escalated …

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The Dollar Consolidates Warsh-Inspired Gains

2026-08-31

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2026-08-31

The US dollar is consolidating its pre-weekend surge spurred by the hawkish commentary that Fed Chair Warsh delivered at Jackson Hole. The last time the US two-year and the Dollar Index rose as much as in response to the hawkish hold delivered in the first FOMC meeting Warsh chaired in the middle of June. With …

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September 2026 Monthly

2026-08-29

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2026-08-29

September brings a cluster of events that will shape the macro narrative into year-end. A Xi-Trump meeting, German state elections, a Federal Reserve decision with a new Summary of Economic Projections, and an ECB meeting that is not finished hiking. Each carries its own logic, but together they sketch the contours of the fourth quarter.In …

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All Eyes on Warsh

2026-08-28

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2026-08-28

The G10 currencies have been in a relatively narrow range this week and this persists ahead of the new Fed chair’s speech at Jackson Hole today. Warsh is an awkward position. First, the main thrust of his brief tenure that the evolution of central banking in the past couple of decades has been misguided, and … Continue reading »

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Greenback Edges Higher

2026-08-27

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2026-08-27

In the relatively quiet conditions that have prevailed this week, the US dollar is trading with a mostly firmer bias. Rising US rates amid the technically oversold short-term market are lending the greenback support.  The dollar remains firm against the yen, even though the Deputy Governor of the BOJ seemed to support speculation of a …

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Consolidation Persists in the FX Market

2026-08-26

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2026-08-26

The US dollar is enjoying a slightly firmer tone against most of the G10 currencies. However, for the most part, ranges tend to be narrow, and the consolidative one seen this week persists. Oil prices have extended their pullback amid reports that Iran and Oman are discussing an “interim framework” to re-open the Strait of …

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Oh, Canada

2026-08-25

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2026-08-25

The breakdown in U.S.-Canada trade talks weighed on the Canadian dollar and drove Canadian interest rates lower. That is hardly surprising. A trade war with an economy roughly 12 times larger is a more significant threat to Canada than to the United States. The asymmetry is economic, even if Ottawa believes it has some political … Continue reading...

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Dollar Mostly Little Changed, Oil Extends Pullback, and China Rejects US Unilateral Sanctions on Iran

2026-08-25

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2026-08-25

The US dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies. If it weren’t the nearly 0.3% decline in the Norwegian krone, fueled by the second consecutive of more than 2% in the price of Brent oil, the G10 currencies would be mostly +/-0.1% change today as narrow ranges prevail.  The prospect of an extended trade war …

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US -Canada Trade War Escalates, while US Seek to Choke the Iranian Economy

2026-08-24

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2026-08-24

The US dollar is trading higher against nearly all the currencies. Equity markets are mixed and bond yields are lower alongside oil prices. There are two major developments.  First, the US and Canada trade talks broke down, and the risk is further escalation. Last week, President Trump has granted Canada a three-day grace period from …

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Week Ahead: Warsh at Jackson Hole

2026-08-22

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2026-08-22

Introduced by the Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Samuelson in the late 1930s, "reveal preferences" says to look at what people are actually doing to determine their true preferences rather than what they say. Applying this to the US now suggests the administration is worried about the US Treasury market. Last week's announcement that the Treasury's bond …

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