Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

FX Daily, June 14: Dollar Becalmed as Markets Wait for US Leadership

The short squeeze that lifted the US dollar ahead of the weekend has seen limited follow-through buying, and instead a consolidative tone emerged. Europe is searching for direction and perhaps waiting for US leadership after a quiet Asia Pacific session, with several centers closed for holiday today (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia).

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FX Daily, June 11: US Yields Stabilize After Falling to Three-Month Lows

The 10-year US Treasury yield steadied after reaching a three-month low near 1.43%, despite the US CPI rising more than expected to 5% year-over-year. On the week, the decline of around a dozen basis points would be the largest in a year. Australia, New Zealand, and Italy benchmark yields have seen a bigger decline this week.

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FX Daily, June 10: ECB Meeting and US CPI: Transitory Impact

The ECB meeting and the US May CPI report is at hand. The US dollar is consolidating at a higher level against most of the major currencies. Softer than expected, inflation readings are weighing on the Scandis, which are bearing the brunt. The US 10-year yield closed below 1.50% for the first time in three months yesterday, and this may have helped underpin the Japanese yen.

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FX Daily, June 09: Without Yield Support, the Dollar Wilts

Falling US yields weigh on the US dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield is flirting with the 1.50% mark, and the greenback is trading heavily against all the major and most emerging market currencies. European and the Asia Pacific benchmark yields are lower as well.

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FX Daily, June 08: Marking Time ahead of the Week’s Big Events

The capital markets appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of this week's big events, including the US CPI and the ECB meeting. Equities are little changed but with a heavier bias evident. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region were lower, except Australia, which eked out a small gain.

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FX Daily, June 07: The Greenback Steadies after Retreating on the Jobs Data

After falling to 1.55% after the US employment data, which, while mixing expectations, could hardly be considered weak, the US 10-year yield has come back firmer today (1.58%) This may be lending the greenback a better tone. Equity markets are quiet. Most markets in the Asia Pacific region edged higher.

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FX Daily, June 04: US and Canada Report on Jobs as G7 Fin Mins Talk Taxes

Stronger than expected US employment data, ahead of today's monthly report and compromise proposal on corporate tax by the White House to help secure a deal on infrastructure sent US bond yields and the dollar high. Late dollar shorts were forced to cover.

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FX Daily, June 03: Don’t Believe Sino-American Thaw or Fed’s Corporate Bond Divestment is a Policy Signal

Market participants appear to be biding their time ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report as they digest recent developments. The dollar is firmer, equities are mixed, and benchmark bond yields are a little firmer. China and Hong Kong shares continue their recent underperformance, while most of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region edged higher.

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FX Daily, June 02: The Dollar Snaps Back

The US dollar is enjoying broad, even if not large, gains today following yesterday's recovery from three-year lows against sterling and four-year lows against the Canadian dollar. The greenback is firmer against all the major currencies.

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FX Daily, June 01: CNY Softens after PBOC’s Move; Equities Advance on Stronger World Outlook

The US dollar fell against most major currencies following the PBOC's modest move to reduce the upward pressure on the yuan. Follow-through selling was seen earlier today, and sterling reached a new three-year high. However, the dollar found a bid in the European morning, while the Scandi currencies held on to most of their earlier gains.

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FX Daily, May 31: China Raises Reserve Requirement for FX, Stemming the Yuan’s Rise

US and UK markets are closed for holidays today, contributing to the rather subdued price action today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rallied two percent last week, the most in three months, and most markets began off the week with modest gains. Japan, Australia, and Singapore, for notable exceptions.

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FX Daily, May 28: The Yuan Extends Gains, While Sterling’s First Close above $1.42 in Three Years Goes for Nought

The recovery of the US 10-year yield, so it is flat on the week near 1.61% coupled with month-end demand, is helping the US dollar firm. While the yen is bearing the burden on the week, with a 0.8% loss, the Antipodeans are leading the downside on the day.

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FX Daily, May 27: Narrow Ranges in FX Prevail Amid Month-End Considerations

Dollar demand linked to the month-end gave the greenback a bit of a reprieve, helped by firmer bond yields. Some momentum players may have been forced out of the euro and yen when the $1.22 and JPY109 levels yielded. However, follow-through dollar buying has been limited, and it has come back a little softer but broadly so.

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FX Daily, May 26: RBNZ Joins the Queue, while Yuan’s Advance Continues

The decline in US rates and the doves at the ECB pushing back against the need to reduce bond purchases next month have seen European bond yields unwind most of this month's gain. The inability of US shares to hold on to early gains yesterday did not deter the Asia Pacific and European equities from trading higher.

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FX Daily, May 25: Softer Yields Weigh on the Greenback

The decline in US 10-year rates to two-week lows below 1.59% is helping rebuild bullish enthusiasm for stocks and weighing on the US dollar. The NASDAQ reached two-week highs yesterday, and almost all the large markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, though India struggled.

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FX Daily, May 24: China Action on Commodities and Crypto Featured

The US dollar is firmer in the European morning after starting out with a softer bias in Asia Pacific turnover. The dollar-bloc currencies, sterling, and the Swiss franc are heavy, but ranges are narrow, and consolidation seems to be the flavor of the day.

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FX Daily, May 20: Market Stabilize after Yesterday’s Tumultuous Session

US equity indices finished lower, but the real story was their recovery. Asia Pacific equities were mixed, with Australia's 1.5% rally leading the recovery in some markets, including Tokyo and Singapore. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up a little more than 0.5% near mid-session, led by information technology and industrials, while energy and financials lagged with small gains.

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FX Daily, May 19: Now What Does Bitcoin say About the Dollar and the US?

A setback in commodities and technology are roiling equity markets today. The inability of US equities to sustain yesterday's rally provided an initial headwind to trading in the Asia Pacific region today. Hong Kong and South Korea markets were closed for holidays, but most of the bourses fell, led by Australia, where the market tumbled nearly 2%, the most in almost three months as the drop in mining and energy took a toll.

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FX Daily, May 18: Risk Appetites Return Bigly

In Asia, equities markets rallied strongly, led by the more than 5% gain in Taiwan, the most in over a year as Monday's 3% drop was more than overcome. The Nikkei gained more than 2% despite the deeper than expected contraction in Q1 GDP. Hong Kong, South Korea, and India also rose more than a 1% gain as tech came roaring back.

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FX Daily, May 17: US and Europe may Announce Tariff Truce

There are two general developments as the busy week gets underway. First, despite accelerated price readings in the US (CPI, PPI, import prices, and University of Michigan survey), US rates are soft. The 10-year yield is near 1.61% after rising to 1.70% after the CPI surprise last week.

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