Category Archive: Markets

Main Author John Henry Smith
John Henry Smith
John Henry Smith of Grail Securities specializes in the U.S. stock market and offers a unique and powerful advisory service to private investors, institutional investors, and SME asset managers, who are seeking to consistently beat the market. All our strengths are at your disposal to provide stock market research and recommendations with the only aim of growing wealth. To achieve this we develop with you a customized investment strategy in terms of your risk and return preferences.

Government bond yields by country and maturity

John Henry Smith, the Grail: Abnormally High Returns

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) specializes in the U.S. stock market. He offers a unique and powerful advisory service to private investors, institutional investors, and asset managers, who are seeking to consistently beat the market.

What Drives Government Bond Yields?

For us the five major drivers of government bond yields are: Inflation expectations and inflation: The by far most important criterion. High inflation expectations must be compensated via higher bond yields. The main driver behind inflation...

History of European Bond Yields

Is the Safe-Haven Government Bond Bubble Finally Bursting?

The Safe-haven government bond bubble did not pop, but Italy or Spain have become low yielders as well Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain...

9) Markets

We are currently looking for an curator of this category. The aim is explain how to obtain sustainably nice returns on stocks and bonds. The focus here should be also on global macro. Sustainability is key: "buy today and sell far in the future", for...

Dividend Yield Comparison SMI, DAX and Dow Jones

The following table compares the dividend yields for blue chips in the SMI, DAX and Dow Jones.

2014 Posts on Markets

Negative and Close to Zero Yields of Government Bonds and the Reasons

We judge that negative or close to zero yielding government bonds reflect three points: Risk off environment, long-run currency gains on currency with low inflation, insufficient supply of government bonds for bank refinancing purposes.

What Drives Government Bond Yields, Part2: Emerging Markets and Recent Discussions

Two additional criteria important for Emerging Markets: High foreign debt, a weak net investment position and a current account deficit increases government bond yields.

2013 Posts on Markets

Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF:Week November 18 to November 22

Fundamentals with highest importance: The HSBC Flash Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for China weakened from 50.8 to 50.4. In particular, new export orders, output prices and employment started to decrease again, while output increased. The preliminary...

Rising Profits as Reason for the Stock Market Rally?

A list of relevant graphs for long-term price earnings ratios and the rising company profits in the last years.

Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF:Week November 11 to November 15

Fundamentals with highest importance: In Janet Yellen’s hearing at the Senate Banking Commission, the future Fed chair emphasized the need to provide support to the economic recovery and to overcome low inflation. Her speech supported equities,...

Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF: Week November 4 to November 8

Fundamentals with highest importance: The U.S. GDP release for Q3, showed that despite the recent U.S. critique with Germany, the Americans are trying to follow the successful Germans: for the first time since Q1/2012 and Q2/2011 exports rose more than...

Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF: Week October 28 to November 3

This week had a focus on – due to the government shut-down – the long awaited U.S. data: Highest importance: The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for October came in at 56.4, higher than the 55 expected. The value for new...

Fundamentals, FX, Gold and CHF: Week October 21 to 25

Major Fundamental Events The week contained a lot of important fundamental events, in particular Non-Farm Payrolls and preliminary “flash” PMI readings.   Highest importance for FX rates Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) weakened to 148K,...

Week October 14 to 18, A Close Look at China’s Fundamental Data

  Weekly Overview of FX Rates Movements The week was driven by the following factors: Solid Chinese economic data including a 7.8% rise in GDP. The end of the debt ceiling debate, at least for now. The expectation by the Fed member Evans that the...

Fundamentals, Gold and FX Movements, Week October 7 to Oct. 12

Our weekly summary of fundamental news on FX that aims to explains price movements, with particular emphasis on the possibly biggest mysteries: the gold price (GLD) and the Swiss franc (FXF) .   Weekly Overview Hopes on a compromise between Obama...

Fundamentals, Gold and FX Movements, Week September 30 to October 4

Our weekly summary of fundamental news on FX that aims to explains price movements, with particular emphasis on the possibly biggest mysteries: the gold price (GLD) and the Swiss franc (FXF) . The clear winner of the week was the Aussie, supported by a...
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