Category Archive: Markets

Main Author John Henry Smith
John Henry Smith
John Henry Smith of Grail Securities specializes in the U.S. stock market and offers a unique and powerful advisory service to private investors, institutional investors, and SME asset managers, who are seeking to consistently beat the market. All our strengths are at your disposal to provide stock market research and recommendations with the only aim of growing wealth. To achieve this we develop with you a customized investment strategy in terms of your risk and return preferences.

Government bond yields by country and maturity



Read More »

Credit Risk and Capital Charges

Collateralisation reduces the credit risk on repo, which in turn can reduce the capital charge that regulators impose on lending cash. However, collateral has operational and legal risks, which means that, notwithstanding the comfort given by collateral, the primary concern in a repo should always be the creditworthiness of the counterparty. This is one of the lessons of the current market crisis.

Read More »

Repo and Repo Markets

Bloomberg Buy-Seel Back Rep Analysis


Read More »

John Henry Smith, the Grail: Abnormally High Returns

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) specializes in the U.S. stock market. He offers a unique and powerful advisory service to private investors, institutional investors, and asset managers, who are seeking to consistently beat the market.

Read More »

What Drives Government Bond Yields?

For us the five major drivers of government bond yields are: Inflation expectations and inflation: The by far most important criterion. High inflation expectations must be compensated via higher bond yields. The main driver behind inflation expectations is the wage development, this is the form of inflation that typically persists. Price inflation follows inflation expectations with a certain lag. Wealth: The higher the wealth of a country, the...

Read More »

History of European Bond Yields



Read More »

Is the Safe-Haven Government Bond Bubble Finally Bursting?

The Safe-haven government bond bubble did not pop, but Italy or Spain have become low yielders as well Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century?

Read More »

9) Markets

We are currently looking for an curator of this category. The aim is explain how to obtain sustainably nice returns on stocks and bonds. The focus here should be also on global macro. Sustainability is key: "buy today and sell far in the future", for example when you get retired. Publicity for own books or publication is allowed.

Read More »

Dividend Yield Comparison SMI, DAX and Dow Jones

The following table compares the dividend yields for blue chips in the SMI, DAX and Dow Jones.

Read More »

2014 Posts on Markets

Negative and Close to Zero Yields of Government Bonds and the Reasons

We judge that negative or close to zero yielding government bonds reflect three points: Risk off environment, long-run currency gains on currency with low inflation, insufficient supply of government bonds for bank refinancing purposes.

Read More »

What Drives Government Bond Yields, Part2: Emerging Markets and Recent Discussions

Two additional criteria important for Emerging Markets: High foreign debt, a weak net investment position and a current account deficit increases government bond yields.

Read More »

2013 Posts on Markets

Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF:Week November 18 to November 22

Fundamentals with highest importance: The HSBC Flash Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for China weakened from 50.8 to 50.4. In particular, new export orders, output prices and employment started to decrease again, while output increased. The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for the United States edged up to 54.3 (vs. 52.3 expected), a 9-month high after the …

Read More »

Rising Profits as Reason for the Stock Market Rally?

A list of relevant graphs for long-term price earnings ratios and the rising company profits in the last years.

Read More »

Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF:Week November 11 to November 15

Fundamentals with highest importance: In Janet Yellen’s hearing at the Senate Banking Commission, the future Fed chair emphasized the need to provide support to the economic recovery and to overcome low inflation. Her speech supported equities, gold and US Treasuries. GDP in the Euro zone rose by 0.1% QoQ in line with expectations, but less …

Read More »

Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF: Week November 4 to November 8

Fundamentals with highest importance: The U.S. GDP release for Q3, showed that despite the recent U.S. critique with Germany, the Americans are trying to follow the successful Germans: for the first time since Q1/2012 and Q2/2011 exports rose more than imports. GDP was up 2.8%, but not driven by consumption, it was mostly helped by …

Read More »

Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF: Week October 28 to November 3

This week had a focus on – due to the government shut-down – the long awaited U.S. data: Highest importance: The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for October came in at 56.4, higher than the 55 expected. The value for new orders and for production remained above 60 despite the government shutdown. The value …

Read More »

Fundamentals, FX, Gold and CHF: Week October 21 to 25

Major Fundamental Events The week contained a lot of important fundamental events, in particular Non-Farm Payrolls and preliminary “flash” PMI readings.   Highest importance for FX rates Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) weakened to 148K, private NFPs to 126K, both against 180K expected. Especially the private NFPs were disappointing. The decrease in the unemployment rate from 7.3% …

Read More »

Week October 14 to 18, A Close Look at China’s Fundamental Data

  Weekly Overview of FX Rates Movements The week was driven by the following factors: Solid Chinese economic data including a 7.8% rise in GDP. The end of the debt ceiling debate, at least for now. The expectation by the Fed member Evans that the government shutdown has delayed Fed tapering. San Francisco Fed’s Williams …

Read More »
Page 112