Category Archive: 7) Markets

Main Author John Henry Smith
John Henry Smith
John Henry Smith of Grail Securities specializes in the U.S. stock market and offers a unique and powerful advisory service to private investors, institutional investors, and SME asset managers, who are seeking to consistently beat the market. All our strengths are at your disposal to provide stock market research and recommendations with the only aim of growing wealth. To achieve this we develop with you a customized investment strategy in terms of your risk and return preferences.

The Market’s Bad Omens mount as the Black Swan population grows!

Last week’s market action confirmed clearly its corrective trend. I cannot say more than that, because when systematic risk kicks in the good, the bad, and the ugly all suffer the same slippery fate.

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Miserable week that ended a miserable year

it was the S&P 500’s worst since the start of the bull market in 2009, ending the year down 0.73% at 2043.94 points. 56% of the stocks posted losses

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Only high-Alpha Investing in 2016 will be profitable!

Russ Koesterich of Blackrock believes that the market is experiencing a profit recession. If so, equity markets will experience more of the same pain next year. The global economy will be even worse off as it moves through its recessionary cycle. However, in contrast, Grail portfolios will continue to show very attractive earnings growth, since their average earnings surprise over 5 quarters is $0.06

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The Fallacies of Portfolio Volatility Measurements

John Henry Smith introduces the base concepts of portfolio volatility: Standard deviation, linearity, normal distribution and the Gaussian bell curve, skewness, value-at-risk and the alpha premium. He explains why they are often misinterpreted.

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Government bond yields by country and maturity



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The Low Volatility Anomaly and the Failures of Your Asset Manager

According to John Henry Smith, fund managers are too much focused on bench-marking their performance to a market index, over-emphasizing the importance of "alpha". But asset managers should abstract from alpha and construct portfolios that have lower risk and higher return than the market. Impossible?

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Mark of a true investor: He disregards instincts

John Henry Smith Grail Securities Switzerland explains why instincts and greed are counter-productive in the world of investing. Instead you should train yourself against them.

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Listen to the Sirens of the Stock Market at your Peril!

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) shows that the financial markets have always been awash with its own brand of Sirens, who dolefully prophesy the complete collapse of whole economic systems. For him Pericles gave the best advice: “The key is not to predict the future, but to be prepared for it!”

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Adjust Your Sales in today’s Choppy Market!

Dumping stocks is one of the hardest things to do. The best way to do this is to examine each stock’s earnings growth projections for significant damage. A planned 20% or 25% return might now no longer realistic, in particular when the sink even below their 200-day moving average

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Credit Risk and Capital Charges

Collateralisation reduces the credit risk on repo, which in turn can reduce the capital charge that regulators impose on lending cash. However, collateral has operational and legal risks, which means that, notwithstanding the comfort given by collateral, the primary concern in a repo should always be the creditworthiness of the counterparty. This is one of the lessons of the current market crisis.

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Repo and Repo Markets

Figure 1: Repurchase agreement


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Don’t Over-Complicate Investment!

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities explains the five most simple rules of investment. Don't build a Rube Goldberg machine! Don't over-complicate things! 1. As a bull, ensure an up-trending market 2. Find a stock with superior fundamentals 3. Wait for a support base 4. Buy the stock when it breaks out 5. Cut your losses quickly if the stock fails

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John Henry Smith, the Grail: Abnormally High Returns

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) specializes in the U.S. stock market. He offers a unique and powerful advisory service to private investors, institutional investors, and asset managers, who are seeking to consistently beat the market.

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What Drives Government Bond Yields?

For us the five major drivers of government bond yields are: Inflation expectations and inflation: The by far most important criterion. High inflation expectations must be compensated via higher bond yields. The main driver behind inflation expectations is the wage development, this is the form of inflation that typically persists. Price inflation follows inflation expectations with a certain lag. Wealth: The higher the wealth of a country, the...

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History of European Bond Yields



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Is the Safe-Haven Government Bond Bubble Finally Bursting?

The Safe-haven government bond bubble did not pop, but Italy or Spain have become low yielders as well Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century?

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9) Markets

We are currently looking for an curator of this category. The aim is explain how to obtain sustainably nice returns on stocks and bonds. The focus here should be also on global macro. Sustainability is key: "buy today and sell far in the future", for example when you get retired. Publicity for own books or publication is allowed.

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Dividend Yield Comparison SMI, DAX and Dow Jones

The following table compares the dividend yields for blue chips in the SMI, DAX and Dow Jones.

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2014 Posts on Markets

German Home Prices Quickly Narrowing Gap against France – 2014 Update

European national central banks released European household wealth reports in Spring 2013. According to that data, "median" German households were far poorer than many of their European counterparts. Based on 2012/2013 data we compared apartment prices and discovered that French prices were strongly overvalued or German ones undervalued. We wanted to know if this is still the case in 2014 and integrated our 2012/2013 data with the one of 2014. We...

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