Category Archive: 7) Markets

Main Author John Henry Smith
John Henry Smith
John Henry Smith of Grail Securities specializes in the U.S. stock market and offers a unique and powerful advisory service to private investors, institutional investors, and SME asset managers, who are seeking to consistently beat the market. All our strengths are at your disposal to provide stock market research and recommendations with the only aim of growing wealth. To achieve this we develop with you a customized investment strategy in terms of your risk and return preferences.

Don’t Over-Complicate Investment!

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities explains the five most simple rules of investment. Don't build a Rube Goldberg machine! Don't over-complicate things! 1. As a bull, ensure an up-trending market 2. Find a stock with superior fundamentals 3. Wait for a support base 4. Buy the stock when it breaks out 5. Cut your losses quickly if the stock fails

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John Henry Smith, the Grail: Abnormally High Returns

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) specializes in the U.S. stock market. He offers a unique and powerful advisory service to private investors, institutional investors, and asset managers, who are seeking to consistently beat the market.

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What Drives Government Bond Yields?

For us the five major drivers of government bond yields are: Inflation expectations and inflation: The by far most important criterion. High inflation expectations must be compensated via higher bond yields. The main driver behind inflation expectations is the wage development, this is the form of inflation that typically persists. Price inflation follows inflation expectations with a certain lag. Wealth: The higher the wealth of a country, the...

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History of European Bond Yields



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Is the Safe-Haven Government Bond Bubble Finally Bursting?

The Safe-haven government bond bubble did not pop, but Italy or Spain have become low yielders as well Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century?

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9) Markets

We are currently looking for an curator of this category. The aim is explain how to obtain sustainably nice returns on stocks and bonds. The focus here should be also on global macro. Sustainability is key: "buy today and sell far in the future", for example when you get retired. Publicity for own books or publication is allowed.

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Dividend Yield Comparison SMI, DAX and Dow Jones

The following table compares the dividend yields for blue chips in the SMI, DAX and Dow Jones.

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2014 Posts on Markets

German Home Prices Quickly Narrowing Gap against France – 2014 Update

European national central banks released European household wealth reports in Spring 2013. According to that data, "median" German households were far poorer than many of their European counterparts. Based on 2012/2013 data we compared apartment prices and discovered that French prices were strongly overvalued or German ones undervalued. We wanted to know if this is still the case in 2014 and integrated our 2012/2013 data with the one of 2014. We...

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Negative and Close to Zero Yields of Government Bonds and the Reasons

We judge that negative or close to zero yielding government bonds reflect three points: Risk off environment, long-run currency gains on currency with low inflation, insufficient supply of government bonds for bank refinancing purposes.

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Swiss Housing Bubble: Thirteen Reasons Why It Will Continue for another Decade

The Bubble Bubble is produced by economic analyst and Forbes columnist Jesse Colombo, who was called one of the "Ten People Who Predicted the Financial Meltdown" in 2008 by the London Times.

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What Drives Government Bond Yields, Part2: Emerging Markets and Recent Discussions

Two additional criteria important for Emerging Markets: High foreign debt, a weak net investment position and a current account deficit increases government bond yields.

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Natural Gas: Global Reserves, Producers and Alliances



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Pros and Cons of the Swiss Countercyclical Capital Buffer

Switzerland is currently living in a big real estate boom. The bubble bursting would imply that banks' collateral in the form of real estate falls in value. Therefore the banks' assets might fall because many home buyers might not be able to repay their mortgage.  If a real estate bubble pops, then banks should be better capitalized to absorb such a shock. Therefore the Swiss National Bank introduced macro-prudential measures, like the so-called...

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2013 Posts on Markets

Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF:Week November 18 to November 22

Fundamentals with highest importance: The HSBC Flash Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for China weakened from 50.8 to 50.4. In particular, new export orders, output prices and employment started to decrease again, while output increased. The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for the United States edged up to 54.3 (vs. 52.3 expected), a 9-month high after the …

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Rising Profits as Reason for the Stock Market Rally?

A list of relevant graphs for long-term price earnings ratios and the rising company profits in the last years.

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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF:Week November 11 to November 15

Fundamentals with highest importance: In Janet Yellen’s hearing at the Senate Banking Commission, the future Fed chair emphasized the need to provide support to the economic recovery and to overcome low inflation. Her speech supported equities, gold and US Treasuries. GDP in the Euro zone rose by 0.1% QoQ in line with expectations, but less …

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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF: Week November 4 to November 8

Fundamentals with highest importance: The U.S. GDP release for Q3, showed that despite the recent U.S. critique with Germany, the Americans are trying to follow the successful Germans: for the first time since Q1/2012 and Q2/2011 exports rose more than imports. GDP was up 2.8%, but not driven by consumption, it was mostly helped by …

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Fundamentals,FX,Gold and CHF: Week October 28 to November 3

This week had a focus on – due to the government shut-down – the long awaited U.S. data: Highest importance: The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for October came in at 56.4, higher than the 55 expected. The value for new orders and for production remained above 60 despite the government shutdown. The value …

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