Category Archive: 9) Personal Investment

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September Market Weakness: The Setup Has Teeth

2026-09-05

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2026-09-05

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - A Bond Scare This was a decently boring week that ended just about where it began. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,718.60, up a rounding-error 0.1% for the week; however, that flat headline hid a decently bumpy five sessions. Stocks dipped early as oil spiked on … Continue reading...

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Is CoreWeave At The Mercy Of The Bond Market?

2026-09-04

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2026-09-04

CoreWeave, which rents GPU computing capacity to AI labs and hyperscalers, sits at the heart of a circular financing story that worries some investors. CoreWeave's total debt sits at $35 billion as of June 30, up sharply from $21 billion at year-end 2025. Further, interest expense hit $640 million last quarter, accounting for more than …

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AI Bears: Right About The Excess, May Be Wrong On The Trade

2026-09-04

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2026-09-04

While the AI bears focus on concentration and circular financing, the last tech overbuild was financed with debt, and this one is being paid for in cash. Before I discuss why I disagree with the "AI bears," I want to state that I respect their opinions, have evaluated their concerns, and have simply derived a …

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Global Bond Yields Fret Inflation & Deficits

2026-09-03

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2026-09-03

For those worried about the impact of deficits and inflation on US bond yields, it's worth taking a trip around the world to get a better picture. Global bond yields for many of the world's ten largest economies are behaving similarly. Across the Globe, the US, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, and Brazil- seven of the …

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Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?

2026-09-02

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2026-09-02

The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio just hit 41. Since 1881, the market valuation has been more expensive under CAPE only once. That was during the final months of the dot-com bubble. At the same time the CAPE is ringing warning bells, the PEG ratio, which measures price relative to expected earnings growth, is at …

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The Ternus Era Begins At Apple

2026-09-02

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2026-09-02

After 15 years of guiding Apple to become the largest US company by market cap, Tim Cook stepped down as Apple's CEO effective September 1. In his place, John Ternus, the company's hardware engineering chief since 2021, will become Apple's eighth CEO. The move was announced in April, but with the CEO turnover in September, … Continue reading...

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Wall Streets Verdict: Warsh Turned Hawkish

2026-09-01

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2026-09-01

Because Warsh doesn't believe in forward guidance, Friday's Jackson Hole speech may be the last window investors get into his thinking before the September 16 FOMC meeting. Accordingly, it's worth spending more time on his speech to see if Wall Streets verdict agrees with our hawkish take in Monday's Commentary- Warsh Makes A Hawkish Pivot. …

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Warsh Makes A Hawkish Pivot

2026-08-31

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2026-08-31

Traditionally, the annual Jackson Hole Symposium is where the Fed Chair signals which economic forces are shaping the Fed's thinking for the coming year. With a few members pushing for rate hikes and inflation making others anxious, the market is taking his speech as more of an indication of what the Fed may or may … Continue reading »

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Loss: Why Crashes, Timing & Valuations Matter (Chapter 3 of 5)

2026-08-31

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2026-08-31

"Math of Loss" is chapter 3 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around "investing for the long run." Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology The first two articles in this series were about behavior. How to think like an investor instead of a speculator, and how to keep your own …

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Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It

2026-08-29

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2026-08-29

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - A Bond Scare If you look at the market headline, the bulls won this week. However, the internals told a different story with the S&P 500 closing Friday at 7,711.76, up 0.5% on the week, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.9% to 26,402.42. Yet under that placid … Continue reading...

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Nvidia Revenue Growth Doubles

2026-08-28

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2026-08-28

Nvidia reported record fiscal second-quarter results Wednesday with revenue more than doubling year over year to $96 billion. After initially falling on the news, the stock rose over 8% overnight. During the earnings call with analysts, CFO Colette Kress guided Nvidia's fiscal 2028 revenue to roughly 70% growth. The forecast implies nearly $700 billion in …

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Democratic Socialism: A Beautiful Cake With A Bitter Aftertaste

2026-08-28

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2026-08-28

Democratic Socialism promises affordability and fairness. The bill, from Caracas to Copenhagen, is something else entirely. On January 1st, a self-described democratic socialist was sworn in as mayor of the largest city in America. Weeks before that, socialist candidates swept a wave of primaries, sending the largest bloc of socialist legislators in New York history …

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Bitcoin Up 22%: Has The Halving Cycle Begun?

2026-08-27

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2026-08-27

Bitcoin peaked a year ago, hitting an all-time high of $126,210 in October 2025, and has since fallen more than 50%, bottoming near $58,000 two months ago. The tide may be turning; over the last week, Bitcoin rose by over 20%, marking its sharpest bounce during this year-long drawdown. The question is whether that marks … Continue...

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Druckenmiller Has A Warning: Don’t Mess With Markets

2026-08-26

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2026-08-26

Famed investor Stanley Druckenmiller published a Wall Street Journal opinion piece (Let The Bond Market Speak) on Monday, in which he warns Treasury Secretary Bessent about long-dated bond buybacks. His core thesis seems to rest on the paradox between Warsh's strong belief in the information value of free markets and the Treasury's actions to intervene …

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Productivity On Gilligan’s Island: Episode 2

2026-08-26

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2026-08-26

Over 7 years ago, we wrote a piece using the 1960s TV sitcom Gilligan's Island to provide a simple example of why productivity is the most important driver of economic growth. In this article, we present the next episode of Gilligan’s Island, describing what happens after the benefits of innovation no longer drive economic growth. …

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TGA Could Turn A Small Buyback Into A Market Mover

2026-08-25

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2026-08-25

The Treasury General Account (TGA) is Treasury's cash balance held at the Federal Reserve. Its balance is the net of cash inflows like tax receipts and outflows to pay the government's bills. On Monday, we learned that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may fund the expanded Treasury bond buyback program by tapping the TGA. Currently, as …

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Will Warsh Talk Down The Hawks At Jackson Hole?

2026-08-24

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2026-08-24

Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair on Friday, August 28, at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Wyoming. The meeting occurs less than three weeks before the September 16 FOMC decision. While the official topic is financial innovation in payments, Wall Street will primarily want to see whether Warsh …

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Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)

2026-08-24

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2026-08-24

"Investor Psychology" is chapter 2 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around "investing for the long run." Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor In the first part of this series, I promised that the next enemy we would face is the one you cannot fire, mute, or unfollow, because it is "You." You can … Continue...

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The Basis Trade: Is The Bond Market Signal Distorted?

2026-08-22

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2026-08-22

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - A Bond Scare The week belonged to the bond market. Long-dated Treasury yields spiked to levels not seen in decades, with the 30-year touching a 19-year high above 5.30% mid-week and the 10-year closing Friday at 4.738%, near a 20-month high. Those seem to be really scary … Continue...

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Nasdaq Is About To Make Wall Street Sleepy

2026-08-21

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2026-08-21

Starting December 6, 2026, Nasdaq will offer a trading session starting at 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. ET. The new hours, in addition to the standard 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET and current pre- and post-market trading sessions, would extend the exchange's trading to nearly 23 hours a day, five days a week, from … Continue reading »

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