Category Archive: 9) Personal Investment

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The Gold Stock Relationship

2025-04-23

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2025-04-23

Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 is down over 10% and nearly 20% from its January peak. At the same time, gold is up almost 30%. The stark return differential is excellent news for gold investors, but the clock may be ticking on gold's outperformance versus stocks. For historical context of prior … Continue reading »

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The Path Ahead: Soar, Stall, Or Plummet

2025-04-23

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2025-04-23

We have good and bad news for investors who want to know whether the stock market will soar, stall, or plummet. First, the good news. This article presents the market path for what lies ahead. Unfortunately, the “right” path is among three likely scenarios. Despite our inability to definitively show you the way forward, we … Continue...

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The Kink In The Yield Curve

2025-04-22

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2025-04-22

Economic and inflation forecasts have a highly significant impact on treasury bond yields. Therefore, one would suspect that their yields would follow a linear trend as the maturity lengthens on Treasury securities. For example, if current expectations were for high growth and higher than normal inflation but long-term expectations were contrary, one would expect a …

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The Importance of Estate Planning in Securing Your Financial Legacy

2025-04-22

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2025-04-22

Estate planning is more than just drafting a will—it is a critical strategy for protecting assets, reducing tax burdens, and ensuring a seamless wealth transfer. Without a proper plan in place, your loved ones may face legal complications, unnecessary expenses, and potential disputes over your estate. Estate planning for wealth is essential for anyone who …

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Powells Termination Can’t Come Fast Enough

2025-04-21

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2025-04-21

On Truth Social, President Trump stated, "Powell's Termination Can't Come Fast Enough!" His comment, posted early Thursday morning, followed a speech by Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon. Unlike the ECB and other central banks that are cutting rates, Powell and the Fed hesitate to do so. Despite expectations for lower economic growth, they worry that …

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The Death Cross And Market Bottoms

2025-04-21

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2025-04-21

In financial markets, few technical patterns generate as much attention and anxiety as the death cross. This ominous-sounding term refers to a crossover on a price chart when a short-term moving average, most commonly the 50-day moving average (50-DMA), drops below a long-term moving average, usually the 200-day moving average (200-DMA). The "death cross" is a fantastic …

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Is Risk Off Positioning Signaling A Market Low?

2025-04-19

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2025-04-19

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Trump Reignites Fed Feud Last week, we discussed the "tariff reprieve" that sent stocks ripping higher in the 3rd largest one-day advance on record. "As we said last week, any good news would cause the market to rally sharply. On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the …

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Inflation Risk Is Subsiding Rapidly

2025-04-18

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2025-04-18

Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years. Such is unsurprising given that inflation spiked following the pandemic in 2020 as consumer spending (demand) was shot into overdrive from stimulus payments and production (supply) was shuttered. To understand why that occurred, we need to revisit …

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Frontrunning Tariffs Boosts Economic Activity

2025-04-17

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2025-04-17

Recent consumer sentiment readings have been horrendous. For instance, the University of Michigan's latest consumer expectations and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index are at or near their lowest levels in ten years. However, despite poor sentiment and concerning outlooks, recent consumer spending reports show increased spending. We, and many economists, believe this is a …

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The Ultimate Guide to Social Security: When and How to Claim for Maximum Benefits

2025-04-17

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2025-04-17

Social Security plays a crucial role in retirement income planning. Making informed decisions about when and how to claim benefits can maximize your Social Security benefits and significantly impact your long-term financial security. Claiming Social Security wisely requires a deep understanding of how benefits are calculated, the impact of different claiming ages, and the strategies …

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Rare Earth Metals: Does China Have The Trump Card?

2025-04-16

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2025-04-16

The chart below, courtesy of JP Morgan Asset Management, highlights how much the US relies on certain rare earth metal imports from China and other nations. It also lists some of the products the metals are needed for. As the chart shows, imports play a critical role in securing our rare earth metal needs. Furthermore, …

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Swaps And Basis Trades Warn Of Mounting Liquidity Problems

2025-04-16

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2025-04-16

Extreme volatility in a highly leveraged financial system inevitably results in liquidity issues. Hence, recent instability is generating mounting signals that liquidity is becoming scarce. This is most evident in the sharp increase in risk-free Treasury yields over the last week. Before the yield surge, liquidity problem warnings appeared in lesser-followed places like Treasury basis …

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Volatility Boosts Bank Bottom Lines

2025-04-15

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2025-04-15

Despite, or actually because of, the recent market turmoil, many large banks and brokers reported better-than-expected earnings. Market volatility provided a nice boost to trading revenue, which helped offset weakness in other business lines. Goldman Sachs, reporting earnings on Monday, said their equity trading revenue rose 27% from the prior quarter. JP Morgan and Morgan …

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How to Protect Your Investment Portfolio from Market Volatility

2025-04-15

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2025-04-15

Market volatility is an inevitable part of investing. While short-term fluctuations can create uncertainty, a well-structured portfolio can help protect investments from volatility and ensure long-term financial stability. Managing market fluctuations requires a disciplined approach that includes diversification, asset allocation, and risk management techniques. In this guide, we’ll explore why markets fluctuate, how investors can …...

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Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet

2025-04-14

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2025-04-14

In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market's "early warning system." To wit:" "Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often …

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The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype

2025-04-14

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2025-04-14

Recently, we have seen claims that the "collapsing" dollar will cause inflation. While a weaker dollar can create inflation, many factors impact prices. Accordingly, we have two issues with such dire statements. First, the dollar is not collapsing. Second, we have experienced much more significant dollar declines without an inflationary impulse. The dollar has fallen …

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Basis Trade Sent Yields Soaring – Is It A Warning?

2025-04-11

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2025-04-11

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Tariff Reprieve Sends Stocks Surging Last week, we noted that the market was not expecting retaliation from China. "Rather than coming to the table to negotiate, China responded with a reciprocal 34% tariff on the U.S. plus export controls on rare earth metals needed for technological production. China is …

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The Pause Heard Around The World

2025-04-11

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2025-04-11

The S&P 500 surged 8.5% off its lows on Wednesday as the administration announced a 90-day tariff pause for all countries except China. Sound familiar? In Tuesday's Commentary, we wrote: For those of you with bearish nightmares, we share one important takeaway from Monday’s market roller coaster. While there is a good chance the market …

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The Consumer Is Tapping Out

2025-04-11

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2025-04-11

The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag that hasn't yet caught up with reality. As we have discussed, the American consumer is …

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Is The Bond Basis Trade Freaking Out The Bond Market?

2025-04-10

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2025-04-10

What is up with the bond market? Many rumors are floating around. For instance, some claim China is selling Treasury bonds in retaliation for increased tariffs. Another rumor claims the bond market is besieged by investors raising money for equity margin calls. While both are plausible, negative interest rate swap spreads point to liquidity problems. …

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