Category Archive: 9) Personal Investment

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The Feds Ambiguous Guidance

2026-07-10

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2026-07-10

The FOMC released the minutes from Chair Warsh's first meeting on Wednesday, and the best word to describe the Fed's advice is "ambiguous." Merriam-Webster defines ambiguous as a state or, in this case, a statement that allows for more than one interpretation. Officials entertained policy scenarios in both hawkish and dovish ways.  Some see inflation …

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AI Capex Risk Cuts Both Ways In The American Economy

2026-07-10

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2026-07-10

Just over a year ago, I made the case that the deficit narrative would find its cure in artificial intelligence. Goldman Sachs has since published research that, on first reading, appears to refute. It isn't. But after more than thirty years of watching capex cycles play out, I've learned the right move when new data lands …

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The Low VIX Hides Fierce Undercurrents

2026-07-09

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2026-07-09

Goldman Sachs's volatility desk made the following comment: "With the VIX back to its lowest levels in more than a month, our Vol desk is focused on hedging opportunities as 1-month S&P implied correlation is near its lowest level in 20 years."  Simply, a low VIX can convey a sense of market calm on the … Continue reading...

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Is Global Liquidity Peaking?

2026-07-08

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2026-07-08

Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital, is one of the most followed global liquidity analysts. Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) often tracks closely to a 65-month sine-wave cycle that has tracked liquidity conditions well since 1965. As we share below, the 65- month cycle (green) bottomed in October 2022 and peaked in August 2025, exactly …

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Are Flattening Curves And Style Rotations Deceptive Omens?

2026-07-08

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2026-07-08

Bond market pundits often warn that bear yield curve flatteners or inverted yield curves ultimately lead to recessions. Similarly, some equity experts caution that periods of violent back-and-forth rotations among stock sectors and/or style factors are precursors to a market top.  Additionally, the combination of a bearish flattening trend and volatile equity rotations leads some …

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The Dollar Narrative Has Turned

2026-07-07

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2026-07-07

Months ago, the financial headlines were littered with stern warnings that the dollar was depreciating rapidly. There was a popular narrative drawing fear that a dollar demise was imminent. A few short months later, the dollar narrative has flipped. According to today's headlines and narratives, the tide has turned for the dollar. To wit: we …

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Margin Debt Risk: The Ratios That Mislead Investors

2026-07-06

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2026-07-06

Margin debt just set another record. In May 2026, investors owed their brokers a combined $1.42 trillion, the highest in history and a 53.7% jump from the prior year.1 Every time this number prints a new high, the same charts circulate: margin debt against GDP, against M2, against the total value of the market. They look authoritative. …

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Forward Guidance: R.I.P

2026-07-06

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2026-07-06

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first major public appearance, a panel at the ECB's annual forum in Portugal, to formally bury one of the Fed's most relied-upon tools of the last 25 years: forward guidance. Warsh could not be more direct about his opinion of forward guidance. To wit, when the moderator repeatedly pressed … Continue reading...

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Mag 7 Stocks: Risk Or Opportunity In The Making?

2026-07-04

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2026-07-04

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - Happy 250th Birthday America Before we get to the tape, a word about the weekend. Happy 250th Independence Day from all of us at RIA Advisors. It is easy, in a year this loud, to lose sight of what we are actually celebrating. America is not perfect, … Continue reading »

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Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator

2026-07-03

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2026-07-03

Wage growth peaked four years ago. Since 1985, it has led CPI by three to seventeen months in every single cycle. The May 4.2% inflation print is the noise. Watch the wages. Headline CPI just printed 4.2% year-over-year for May. The highest reading since April 2023. The 10-year Treasury punched above 4.6% on the back …

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The Yen At 40-Year Lows: Should You Care?

2026-07-02

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2026-07-02

As shown below, the Japanese yen has fallen to levels not seen since the late 1980s. (Note the chart quotes yen per dollar, thus a higher figure represents a depreciating yen) We have written extensively about why the yen matters to US markets: the yen carry trade. The trade is relatively simple. An investor borrows … Continue reading...

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More Market Wisdom: Jesse Livermore Part 2

2026-07-01

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2026-07-01

In Part One, we shared some market wisdom from one of the greatest traders, Jessie Livermore.  While Livermore's name is not always mentioned alongside other great investors and analysts, such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, his sage advice is priceless. Interestingly, much of what Livermore teaches his readers runs counter to what Warren Buffett …

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Debt Versus Equity: SPCX Bucks The Trend

2026-07-01

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2026-07-01

Three weeks ago, we wrote A Supply Tsunami Is Coming. The article discussed why the world's largest technology companies are choosing equity versus debt to fund their AI infrastructure buildouts. Simply, at 5% interest rates, issuing stock carries no interest expense, no refinancing risk, and no margin pressure. Alphabet raised $80 billion in equity. Meta …

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AI Memory Chips Spark Inflation Worries

2026-06-30

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2026-06-30

Last week, Apple raised prices on certain products, citing rising costs of AI memory chips. In a statement to Reuters, the company said it had "never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly" and further that it had been shielding customers from higher costs until now. There is a global shortage of memory …

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Record Retail Inflows: Where Is All The Money Coming From?

2026-06-29

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2026-06-29

A couple of weeks ago, I showed Adam Taggart the following chart of record retail levels of household cash as a percentage of total financial assets. This chart is hard to square with the financial media narratives. For example, two stories ran side by side this month, and on the surface, they cannot both be … Continue reading...

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Alphabet Joins The Dow Jones Industrial Average

2026-06-29

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2026-06-29

Starting this morning, Alphabet will replace Verizon Communications in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The index change hasn't gotten much media attention, but it sends a loud message about the economy. The change makes Alphabet one of just 30 companies that Dow Jones & Company deems representative of the US industrial landscape. Verizon, which was …

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Stock Market Pullback Is Healthier Than It Looks

2026-06-27

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2026-06-27

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - A Tech-Only Selloff The headline looks ugly until you turn it over. The S&P 500 finished the week at 7,306, down 2.4% from the prior Friday, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped a hard 4.6% as the megacap technology names that have carried this market all year finally … Continue reading...

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Friedman Was Right, Just Mostly Misquoted.

2026-06-26

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2026-06-26

Milton Friedman's famous one-liner that anchors half the inflation debates on financial television leaves out the part where the actual economics live. Once you put it back in, the doomist case gets a lot smaller. Per Bylund recently wrote a sharp piece for The Daily Economy arguing that CPI and GDP have become Goodhart's Law …

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Micron: The AI Memory Supercycle Rolls On

2026-06-26

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2026-06-26

Micron left little doubt that the supply-demand equation is grossly out of balance for AI memory chips, benefiting semiconductor companies. In its latest earnings report, Micron reported astronomical growth with revenue of $41.46 billion, up a stunning 346% year over year and 74% versus the prior quarter. Its adjusted EPS of $25.11 beat the $20.28 …

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Earnings Growth Today But At What Cost?

2026-06-25

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2026-06-25

A recent article by the Wall Street Journal entitled Turbocharged Earnings Are Pushing Stocks Higher. There’s a Catch raises an important issue for investors of the megacap AI-tech companies. Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to top 20% for a second consecutive quarter; however, the earnings growth is not widespread. The predominant bulk …

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