George Dorgan

George Dorgan

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Articles by George Dorgan

U.S. Election Swing States 2024 vs 2020

    2024 vs 2020 same time vs 2020 final     Time 05:32 UTC   2024  Nov6 05:36 UTC Nov 4, 2020 05:32 2024 near Final (Nov 18) Overall (image from Foxnews) Overall Harris: 59,248,216 votes Trump: 63,797,332 votes Biden: 60,995,579 votes (49.8%) Trump: 59,639,660 votes (48.6%) Biden: 79,308,019 votes (51%) Trump: 73,483,233 votes (47.3%) Georgia (screen) …

Continue reading »

Read More »

How the US Election Could Impact Your Euro Trades

  As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, investors worldwide are closely monitoring potential ramifications on global markets, including the euro. The outcome of this election could significantly influence currency fluctuations, trade policies, and international relations as Republican candidate Donald Trump seeks to regain the White House from the Democratic party – which has nominated …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Wichtige Trends für Schweizer Investoren

Die Finanzmärkte durchlaufen derzeit eine Phase beträchtlicher Veränderungen, die von verschiedenen globalen und lokalen Faktoren beeinflusst werden. Wirtschaftliche Unsicherheiten und geopolitische Spannungen haben die Märkte volatiler gemacht, was sowohl Risiken als auch Chancen für Investoren mit sich bringt. Insbesondere die Schweizer Wirtschaft, bekannt für ihre Stabilität und Robustheit, muss sich an diese neuen Herausforderungen anpassen, um weiterhin erfolgreich zu sein.

Read More »

Luftfahrtindustrie: Rückblick auf 2023 und Prognose für 2024

Die Luftfahrtindustrie ist ein integraler Bestandteil des globalen Transportsystems und verbindet Menschen und Güter über große Entfernungen hinweg. Im Jahr 2023 zeigte die Branche trotz beispielloser Herausforderungen aufgrund der COVID-19-Pandemie Widerstandsfähigkeit und Anpassungsfähigkeit. Während wir uns auf das Jahr 2024 vorbereiten, wollen wir uns die Zahlen aus dem Jahr 2023 genauer ansehen und die Prognose für den Luftfahrtsektor im kommenden Jahr erkunden.

Read More »

Switzerland’s Growing Online Gambling Ecosystem and the Rise of iGaming White Label Solutions

Switzerland is gaining recognition for something beyond its stunning landscapes and precision timepieces – its rapidly expanding online gambling industry. The remarkable growth in gaming platforms’ popularity has been partly fueled by the adoption of igaming white label casino online solutions. These pre-built, fully licensed operational setups allow new ventures to launch their online casinos or sports betting sites swiftly.

Read More »

Investitionstipps für Anfänger: Praktische Ratschläge für den Einstieg

Investieren unterscheidet sich grundlegend vom bloßen Spekulieren oder dem Hoffen auf schnelle Gewinne, wie man sie vielleicht in einem Casino erwarten könnte. Es geht vielmehr darum, durchdachte und informierte Entscheidungen zu treffen, die auf einer langfristigen Perspektive und einem Verständnis des Marktes basieren. Für Neulinge in der Welt der Finanzen kann dies eine Herausforderung darstellen, aber mit den richtigen Werkzeugen und Kenntnissen ist es ein durchaus erreichbares Ziel.

Read More »

Navigating Financial Frontiers: A Deep Dive into the World of Private Credit

  Investors constantly seek new avenues for diversification and higher returns in the ever-evolving finance landscape. One such frontier that has gained significant attention in recent years is private credit. This alternative asset class offers unique opportunities and challenges, attracting institutional investors, high-net-worth individuals, and fund managers. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll explore the intricacies …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Tax Refunds Delayed? Here’s How an Emergency Loan Can Help

For many, tax refunds feel like a mini-windfall—a delightful surprise at the beginning of the year. A chance to cover old debts, splurge on something desired, or simply bolster savings. But what happens when this eagerly anticipated money doesn’t arrive on time?  Delays can, unfortunately, throw a wrench in your financial plans, causing unnecessary stress. …

Continue reading »

Read More »

How To Ensure Better Operations Within Your Company’s Fleet

  In today’s hyper-connected world, the efficient management of a company’s fleet is an imperative that can’t be overlooked. Businesses that rely on fleet operations must prioritize their management not only for financial prudence but also to ensure the safety and efficiency of operations. Whether you’re overseeing a fleet of delivery trucks, rental cars, or …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Geld sparen bei der Stromrechnung – so geht’s

  Wahrscheinlich ist Ihnen schon aufgefallen, dass Ihre Gas- und Stromrechnungen teurer sind als früher. Falls Sie nach Möglichkeiten suchen, Ihre Stromkosten zu senken, gibt es viele einfache Maßnahmen, die Sie ergreifen können, um Ihre Energierechnungen zu senken – vom Ausschalten des Lichts bis hin zum kosteneffizienten Wäschewaschen. Hier finden Sie die 23 besten Möglichkeiten, …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Exploring Self-Directed IRAs for Diversification

    Finding the right retirement portfolio balance is an individual journey, especially in today’s ever-evolving environment. No two individuals are alike when it comes to investing and planning for financial security in retirement, which can make it daunting to find a suitable option that provides protection yet also offers growth potential.  One less conventional …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Exciting Restaurant Management Software and Tech Emerging

In today’s fast-paced world, technological advancements are changing the game in almost every industry. Restaurants, a sector once considered traditional and manual, are no exception. With the increasing demands of the 21st-century customer, the integration of technology has become inevitable. In this article, we will explore emerging technologies in restaurant management software, the benefits it …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Unveiling the Advantages of a Free Economic Model

  When discussing different ways to run an economy, one idea that stands out is the “free market” system. Instead of being a mouthful, it’s essentially a way of doing things where the government doesn’t get too involved, and businesses are free to compete. This setup has some pretty cool perks that can make life …

Continue reading »

Read More »

The Effects of Electricity Deregulation on the State of Texas

Texas is not the only US state to have deregulated electricity. The states of Delaware, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire have several deregulated electricity zones as well. However, there are significantly more deregulated electricity sectors in Texas than in any other state. As per official reports, more than 26 million residents of the state live …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Elevating Workplace Culture by Celebrating Employees

Celebrating individual and team successes and encouraging team bonding are among the best ways of improving workplace culture. Employees who feel appreciated regardless of the team they are in are more likely to be highly productive, ensure their team succeeds, and be more motivated and energetic in the workplace. Here are a few ways your …

Continue reading »

Read More »

How Successful Businesses Minimize Their Fleet Operating Costs

Fleet management is a critical aspect of any business that utilizes multiple vehicles for its operations. It’s an area of business operations that can often seem riddled with complexity and high costs, especially for businesses with a large fleet. However, successful businesses find ways to minimize these costs while maintaining optimal fleet operations. This article …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Financial Savvy Ways To Thrive In The Auto Market

  The auto market can be challenging and unpredictable, but with the right strategies and insights, automotive business owners can thrive. This article will explore the financial savvy ways to succeed in the auto market, focusing on understanding the current landscape, saving money, using modern financial tools and AI, and navigating warranties and service contracts. …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Which brokerage account is best for beginners in Singapore?

Money

Are you looking to invest in Singapore but feeling overwhelmed by all the different options? Finding the correct brokerage account can be challenging, especially if you are not an experienced investor. That’s why we’ve broken down some of the top-rated brokers in Singapore, explaining the pros and cons each offers so you can choose which online trading platform is best for your needs.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance October 2022: declining foreign trade

In October 2022 and after two consecutive monthly increases, seasonally adjusted exports fell by 1.1% (real: −1.8%). However, they remain on a positive trend. Imports fell by 1.4% over one month (actual: −0.8%), but have stagnated since the middle of the year. The trade balance ends with a surplus of 3 billion francs, the highest recorded in the last six months.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance 3nd quarter 2022: foreign trade remains in rise

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), Q3 2022

Also in the 3rd quarter of 2022, Swiss foreign trade experienced a positive development: while exports increased by 1.3%, imports grew by 0.8%. However, the latter have lost their vigor since the middle of the year. Both imports and exports nevertheless posted a record quarterly result. The trade balance closes with a surplus of 8 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance May 2022: surge in imports towards a level record

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), May 2022

In May 2022, Swiss foreign trade strengthened in both directions of traffic: seasonally adjusted exports increased by 1.2% while imports jumped by 10.3%. The latter thus confirmed their upward trend despite strong fluctuations. Due to the different pace of growth at the outflow and the inflow, the trade balance surplus stood at CHF 2.0 billion.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2022: foreign trade chain record upon record

Switzerland Trade Balance, March 2022

Swiss foreign trade also grew in the 1st quarter of 2022, climbing to a record level. Imports strengthened further (+6.7%) while exports lost ground somewhat (+1.2%). Both at entry and exit, prices stood at very high levels. Due to different trends in the two directions of traffic, the trade balance surplus fell sharply (–2.8 billion francs).

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Year 2021: exports climb to one record level

Switzerland Trade Balance, December 2021

After a year 2020 strongly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, Swiss foreign trade proved to be very dynamic in 2021. Exports thus jumped by 15.2% – reaching a record level – while imports swelled by 10 .1%. The different pace of growth at entry and exit explained the jump in the trade surplus to the imposing level of 58.7 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q2 2021: export record

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), Q2 2021

Swiss foreign trade showed dynamism in the second quarter of 2021. Exports rose 3.2% to a record level. They posted a fourth consecutive quarterly increase since the drop recorded at the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Imports continued the momentum of the previous quarter and increased 3.8%. The trade surplus stood at 11.5 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2021: exports go back above their pre-Covid-19 level

Switzerland Trade Balance, March 2021

During the 1st quarter of 2021 and on a seasonally adjusted basis, exports increased by 4.8% (+ 2.7 billion francs; actual: + 4.9%), signing a third consecutive quarterly increase. At 58.1 billion francs, they not only exceeded their pre-crisis level, but also their second largest quarterly result. Imports increased by 1.7% or 805 million francs (actual: + 1.9%).

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance An exceptional year 2020: border crossings closed and online commerce booming

Switzerland Trade Balance, February 2021

Bern, 04.03.2021 – The 2020 statistics of the Federal Customs Administration (AFD) are strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to reduce the risk of transmission of the coronavirus, Switzerland has reintroduced systematic checks at national borders for the first time since joining Schengen, imposed entry restrictions and temporarily closed small border posts.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance January 2021: foreign trade starts the year on a positive note

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), January 2021

After declining in December 2020, Swiss foreign trade again showed a strong increase at the start of 2021. In January and in seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose 5.4% to 18.9 billion francs and imports by 3.3% to 15.3 billion. In both directions of trafficking, the boom relied heavily on chemicals and pharmaceuticals. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 3.6 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Foreign trade 2020: historic decline against the backdrop of a pandemic

Switzerland Trade Balance, December 2020

Switzerland’s 2020 foreign trade will bear the brunt of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic: exports (-7.1% to 225.1 billion francs) and imports (-11.2% to 182.1 billion) posted a historic decline. Never before have they suffered such a significant quarterly decline as in the second quarter of 2020. Foreign trade has fallen back to its level recorded three years earlier. The trade balance closed the year with a record surplus of CHF 43.0 billion.

Read More »

Swiss balance of payments and international investment position: Q3 2020

Current Account Q3 2018-Q3 2020

In the third quarter of 2020, the current account surplus amounted to CHF 9 billion, CHF 3 billion less than in the same quarter of 2019. This decline was particularly due to the lower receipts surplus in trade in goods and services. In the case of the goods trade, the decline was attributable to gold trading. This decrease was curbed by the expenses surplus for primary and secondary income, which decreased compared to Q3 2019.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance November 2020: exports are on the rise

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), November 2020

In November 2020, Swiss foreign trade stood out with an increase in both directions of traffic. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports advanced 4.8% and imports 4.2%. Falling over the previous two months, exports resumed their growth path and the trade balance closed with a surplus of 3.1 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance October 2020: foreign trade falters

Switzerland Trade Balance, October 2020

In October 2020, Swiss foreign trade took off. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports stagnated (-0.4%) while imports fell 3.3%. The slowdown recorded since this summer in both directions of traffic has thus been confirmed. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.9 billion francs.

Read More »

Covid, November 13: 553 deaths in Switzerland this week as infection rate slows

Daily Fatalities Switzerland, November 13

Over the 7 days to 13 November 2020, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) reported 553 deaths among laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases, bringing the death toll to 1,229 since summer and 2,960 since the beginning of the year.

© Sudok1 | Dreamstime.comThe 553 reported deaths this week represent 19% of the total so far, making the last 7 days the deadliest 7-day period since the virus arrived in Switzerland.

There are currently 3,945 Covid-19 patients in hospitals across Switzerland, according to FOPH figures published by RTS, a number significantly above the peak during the first wave.

Switzerland is currently using 77% of its current intensive care capacity (1,142 places), according to SRF. The number of Covid patients in intensive care has reached 512, a number

Read More »

Second Covid Wave in Europe, Rest of the World still Unaffected

The second wave of the Coronavirus is currently raging in Europe. The attached image shows the number of newly infected people in European countries on a linear scale. In particular in the Czech republic, but also in Switzerland, France or Spain, one can see a tendency of exponential growth.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q3 2020: foreign trade regains color

Switzerland Trade Balance, September 2020

After its historic decline in the second quarter, Swiss foreign trade showed a clear recovery in the third quarter of 2020. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports swelled by 6.5% and imports by 11.5%. The two traffic departments, however, remained well below their record level for the second quarter of 2019. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 8.2 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss balance of payments and international investment position: Q2 2020

Current Account Switzerland Q2 2020

In the second quarter of 2020, the current account surplus amounted to CHF 10 billion; in the same quarter of 2019 it was CHF 21 billion. This decline was principally due to lower receipts from direct investment abroad. While the goods trade balance and the services trade balance changed only marginally, there was a significant decrease in receipts and expenses.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q2 2020: historic decline in exports and imports

Switzerland Trade Balance, June 2020

Swiss foreign trade recorded a record decline in the second quarter of 2020. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports plunged by 11.5% compared to the previous quarter and imports even by 16.0%. This result stems from the traffic collapse recorded in April in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, with May and June having regained some color. The trade balance closed with a record surplus of 9.6 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance May 2020: signs of recovery in foreign trade

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), May 2020

After its historic setback of the previous month, foreign trade recovered a few colors in May 2020. Imports posted a seasonally adjusted increase of 9.8% to 13.6 billion francs; however, they are still below their March 2020 level. Although exports fell again (-1.2%), they eased compared to April. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.8 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2020: -4.5 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, May 2020

15.06.2020 – The Producer and Import Price Index fell in May 2020 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 97.6 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for pharmaceutical and chemical products as well as for petroleum products. Compared with May 2019, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 4.5%.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance April 2020: foreign trade collapses

Switzerland Trade Balance, April 2020

Compared with the previous month, April 2020 exports contracted by 11.7% (actual: -10.0%); this is the largest seasonally adjusted decline ever recorded. They retracted by 2.2 billion to reach 16.7 billion francs. Imports even plunged by 21.9%, that is, by a drop of 3.5 billion francs, to 12.4 billion francs (actual: -17.8%); they thus fell almost to their July 2005 level. The trade balance closed with a record monthly surplus of 4.3 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2020 : chemistry-pharma keeps exports in black numbers

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), Q1 2020

The boom in chemicals and pharmaceuticals enabled Swiss exports to increase in March as well as in the first quarter of 2020 (+ 2.2% respectively + 1.0%). Despite the global economic situation linked to the “Covid-19”, the performance of this sector offset the decline suffered by most of the other groups. As in the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted imports fell (- 2.8%). The trade balance for the first three months of 2020 ends with a surplus of 8.3 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q4 2019 and review of the year 2019

Current Account Switzerland Q4 2019

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the current account surplus was CHF 26 billion, CHF 11 billionmore than in Q4 2018. The increase was primarily attributable to the higher receipts surplus in investment income and goods trade. The transactions reported in the financial account showed a net acquisition of financial assets (CHF 40 billion) and a net incurrence of liabilities (CHF 19 billion) in Q4 2019.

Read More »

Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q3 2019

Current Account Switzerland Q3 2019

In summary: Nearly any change against the third quarter of 2018. About the same figures. But clearly and – as usual – a massive surplus. Key figures: Current Account: Up 39.15% against Q3/2018 to 18.09 bn. CHF. of which Goods Trade Balance: Plus 49.78% against Q3/2018 to 16.76 bn. of which the Services Balance: Minus 12.94% to 5.25 bn.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance November 2019: Foreign trade continues to contract

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), November 2019

As in the previous month, cross-border flows of goods fell in both directions of traffic in November 2019. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports fell 1.7% on a month compared to 1.1% for imports. Swiss sales fell back to their level at the start of 2019, while admissions fell by almost a billion francs. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.2 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance October 2019: exports fall but remain stable

Switzerland Trade Balance, October 2019

In October 2019, Swiss foreign trade declined in both traffic directions. Exports fell sharply (-5.3%); however, they had jumped 8.8% the previous month, setting the bar very high. Imports fell 2.4%. Since the beginning of the year, foreign trade has thus revealed stagnation. The trade balance closes with a surplus of 2.4 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q2 2019

Current Account Switzerland Q2 2019

The assets side of the financial account registered a total net acquisition of CHF 11 billion (Q2 2018: net reduction of CHF 30 billion). Other investment contributed CHF 7 billion to this net acquisition (Q2 2018: net reduction of CHF 36 billion), in part because the SNB increased its foreign claims in connection with repo transactions.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in August 2019: -1.9 percent YoY, -0,2 percent MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, August 2019

12.09.2019 – The Producer and Import Price Index fell in August 2019 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.4 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for rubber and plastic products as well as basic metals and semi-finished metal products. Compared with August 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.9%.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance July 2019: foreign trade decelerates in July 2019

Switzerland Trade Balance, July 2019

After shining the previous month, foreign trade turned red in July 2019. Despite a decline of 3.9% to 19.6 billion francs, exports had their second largest monthly result ever reached. Down 1.7%, imports were close to CHF 17 billion. The chemistry-pharma has greatly impacted both directions of the traffic. The trade balance is closing with a surplus of 2.7 billion francs.

Read More »

SNB reports a profit of CHF 38.5 billion for the first half of 2019.

SNB Profit and Loss since 1999

The Swiss National Bank reports a profit of CHF 38.5 billion for the first half of 2019. The profit on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 33.8 billion. A valuation gain of CHF 3.8 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The profit on Swiss franc positions was CHF 1.1 billion. The SNB’s financial result depends largely on developments in the gold, foreign exchange and capital markets.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2019: -1.4 percent YoY, -0,5 percent MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, June 2019

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in June 2019 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products, petroleum and natural gas as well as basic metals and semi-finished metal products. Compared with June 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.4%.

Read More »

Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2019

Current Account Switzerland Q1 2019

In the first quarter of 2019, the current account surplus amounted to CHF 17 billion, on a par with the same quarter of 2018. Trade in services recorded a higher receipts surplus compared with the year-back quarter, whereas secondary income registered a higher expenses surplus. The balances of trade in goods and primary income barely changed.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2019: -0.8 percent YoY, unchanged MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, May 2019

13.06.2019 – The Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in May 2019 compared with the previous month. The index stood at 102.2 points (December 2015 = 100). Petroleum products in particular saw higher prices, while chemical and pharmaceutical products became cheaper. Compared with May 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.8%.

Read More »

SNB Results: Big Win After Big Loss in Q4 2018

Income Statement, 1 January - 31 March 2019

The Swiss National Bank reports a profit of CHF 30.7 billion for the first quarter of 2019. The profit on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 29.3 billion. A valuation gain of CHF 0.9 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The profit on Swiss franc positions was CHF 0.6 billion.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2019: Foreign trade at a high level

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), Q1 2019

Swiss foreign trade saw a mixed evolution during the first half of 2019. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports fell slightly, still remaining above the 57 billion franc mark. Imports, on the other hand, continued to rise (+1 , 0%) to reach a record level of 51.2 billion francs. The trade balance closes with a surplus of 6.2 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance February 2019: New Peak of Exports

Switzerland Trade Balance, February 2019

In February 2019, like the previous month, seasonally-adjusted exports increased (+ 2.3%), reaching a record level of 19.4 billion francs. On the other hand, imports fell by 1.2% in one month to 17.4 billion francs. The trade balance shows a surplus of 2.0 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in February 2019: -0.7 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, February 2019

The Producer and Import Price Index increased in February 2019 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.9 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with February 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.7%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

SNB loses 15 billion in 2018

The SNB earned 2 billion on negative interest rates (Swiss franc positions below), but lost nearly 17 billion CHF on FX investments, of which 5 bn on bonds and 12 bn on stocks. Gold was nearly unchanged.

Read More »

Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q3 2018

  Current Account Key figures: Current Account: Up 85% against Q3/2017 to 14.6 bn. CHF of which Goods Trade Balance: Up 16.6% against Q3/2017 to 10.5 bn. of which the Services Balance: Minus 5.6% to 5.0 bn. of which Investment Income: Up 74.4% to 7.6 bn. CHF. Financial account Net acquisition of financial assets The … Continue reading »

Read More »

Monetary Policy Assessment of 13 December 2018

Conditional Inflation Forecast, December 2018

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansio nary mo netary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%.

Read More »

SNB reports a loss of CHF 7.8 billion for third quarter of 2018

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports a loss of CHF 7.8 billion for the first three quarters of 2018. A valuation loss of CHF 3.7 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The loss on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 5.3 billion. The profit on Swiss franc positions was CHF 1.5 billion.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2018: +2.6 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, September 2018

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in September 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.2 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for scrap. Compared with September 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 2.6%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance July 2018: Slowdown to a High Level

Switzerland Trade Balance, July 2018

After stagnating the previous month, both exports and imports fell in July 2018. In seasonally adjusted terms, they fell by 3.0 and 2.8%, respectively. The decline in the chemicals-pharmaceuticals sector weighed on the result in both directions of the traffic. The trade balance is closing with a surplus of 1.2 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in July 2018: +3.6 YoY, +0.1 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, July 2018

The Producer and Import Price Index increased in July 2018 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.3 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for watches, petroleum and natural gas. Compared with July 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.6%.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance June 2018: Fifth consecutive record of exports

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), June 2018

The dynamism shown by exports since the beginning of 2017 continued in the second quarter of 2018. They are thus flying from record to record for the fifth quarter in a row. Imports, on the other hand, came to a standstill, at a high level, however, after posting strong growth in previous quarters. The trade balance closes on a surplus of 4.6 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2018: +3.5 YoY, +0.2 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, June 2018

The Producer and Import Price Index increased in June 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.2 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products and timber products. Compared with June 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.5%.

Read More »

Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2018

Current Account Switzerland Q1 2018

The current account surplus amounted to CHF 18 billion in the first quarter of 2018, an increase of CHF 5 billion over the same quarter of 2017. This rise was attributable to the higher receipts surplus on trading in non-monetary gold, which is recorded under trade in goods. In the case of services as well as primary and secondary income, the balances remained stable.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance May 2018: Foreign trade overcomes stagnation

Switzerland Trade Balance, May 2018

After stagnating in previous months, exports rose in May 2018. Seasonally adjusted exports rose 0.9% in one month. Imports were more dynamic, at + 3.8%. Chemistry-pharma and the vehicle sector generated 90% of growth in both traffic directions. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.3 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2018: +3.2 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, May 2018

The Producer and Import Price Index increased in May 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.0 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with May 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.2%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance April 2018: Foreign Trade Caps at a High Level

Switzerland Trade Balance, April 2018

In recent months, both exports and Swiss imports have been apathetic. On April 1, 2018, and after seasonal adjustment, they respectively stagnated and fell by 3.4%. The chemistry-pharma has sealed the result in both directions of the traffic. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.8 billion francs.

Read More »

SNB loses 6.8 billion in Q1/2018

Income Statement, Q1 2018

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports a loss of CHF 6.8 billion for the first quarter of 2018. A valuation loss of CHF 0.2 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The SNB’s financial result depends largely on developments in the gold, foreign exchange and capital markets. Strong fluctuations are therefore to be expected, and only provisional conclusions are possible as regards the annual result.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2018: The positive trend continues

Switzerland Trade Balance, Q1 2018

In the first quarter of 2018 and on a seasonally adjusted basis, foreign trade confirmed the positive trend of previous quarters. Both traffic directions have also reached record levels. Exports increased by 0.2% and imports by 4.1%. The divergent evolution of inflows and outflows has led to the smallest trade surplus in four and a half years.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in March 2018: +2.0 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, May 2013 - Apr 2018

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in March 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 102.3 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline was due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products and pharmaceutical preparations. Compared with March 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 2.0%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in February 2018: +2.3 percent YoY, +0.3 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, February 2018

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in February 2018 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 102.6 points (December 2015=100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for chemical and pharmaceutical products. Compared with February 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 2.3%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

SNB reports a profit of CHF 54.4 billion for 2017

Income statement for 2017

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports a profit of CHF 54.4 billion for the year 2017 (2016: CHF 24.5 billion). The profit on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 49.7 billion. A valuation gain of CHF 3.1 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The profit on Swiss franc positions was CHF 2.0 billion.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2018: +1.8 YoY, +0.3 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, Jan 2018

Neuchâtel, 13 February 2018 (FSO) – The Producer and Import Price Index rose in January 2018 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 102.2 points (December 2015=100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products, electricity and gas as well as metals and metal products. Compared with January 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.8%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

Swiss Trade 2017: Exports at all-time high

Switzerland Trade Balance, Dec 2017

Last year, Swiss foreign trade accelerated yet again relative to 2016: exports rose by 4.7% to reach a new record high. Imports grew by 6.9%, posting their strongest growth rate since 2010. Aside from the improved economic situation worldwide, the weakening of the Swiss franc and price trends played a decisive role in both directions of trade. With a surplus of CHF 34.8 billion, the balance of trade closed the year 6% (or CHF 2.1bn) lower than the previous year.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in December 2017: +1.8 YoY, +0.2 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, December 2017

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in December 2017 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.9 points (December 2015=100). Compared with December 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.8%. The average annualised inflation rate in 2017 was 0.9%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

Q3/2017: Swiss Current Account Surplus significantly down

Swiss Current Account, Q3 2017

The Swiss current account surplus went down by 15% against the same quarter in 2016. In the third quarter of 2015. The current account surplus was still at 22 bn. CHF.
It seems to be a change in the usual movement that sees a higher Q3 surplus compared to the other quarters.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance November 2017: Foreign Trade in Verve

Switzerland Trade Balance, November 2017

Swiss foreign trade proved dynamic in November 2017. After correction of working days, exports grew by 9.5% and imports even 16.4% year on year, both boosted by rising prices. In real terms, they increased by 4.4 and 6.8%, respectively. The balance commercial loop with a surplus of 2.7 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in November 2017: +1.8 YoY, +0.6 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, November 2017

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in November 2017 by 0.6% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.6 points (base December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products, chemical and pharmaceutical products and scrap. Compared with November 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.8%.

Read More »

Health insurance premium index 2017: Premium increases from 2016 to 2017 curb growth in disposable income by 0.3 percentage points

Schweiz Krankenversicherungsprämien 2000-2017

The health insurance premiums index (CIPI) recorded a growth of 3.8 percent over the previous year for the 2017 premium year. The KVPI thus achieved an index level of 185.3 points (base 1999 = 100). The impact of premium development on the growth of disposable income can be estimated using the CIPI. According to the KVPI model calculation by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the increase in premiums reduces the growth in average disposable income in 2017 by 0.3 percentage points.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in October 2017: +1.2 YoY, +0.5 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, October 2017

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in October 2017 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.0 points (base December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for machinery, electrical equipment and metal products. Compared with October 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.2%.

Read More »

The good years have started, increasing SNB Profits

Income statement, 1 January–30 September 2017

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports a profit of CHF 33.7 billion for the first three quarters of 2017. But in 2017, the picture is changed. Assuming a “biblical” cycle of seven good years and seven bad years, the SNB could now increase profits every year – thanks to a weaker franc and the seven good years.

Read More »

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment September 2017 and Comments

SNB Switzerland Conditional Inflation Forecast

The SNB projects that she will reach her inflation target, shortly under 2% in the medium term, i.e. in 2019/2020. One reason might be the weakening of the Swiss Franc. But she does not prepare for a normalization of her policy: From the history we know that – once the franc is weakening – inflation may rise very quickly.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in July 2017: -0.1 YoY, -0,1 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, July 2017

The Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in July 2017 compared with the previous month at 99.7 points (base December 2015 = 100). Petroleum products in particular became cheaper. Prices were higher for scrap, computers and metal products. Compared with July 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.1%.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of August 01): Speculators Press Ahead with Dollar-Bloc Currencies, but Hesitate with Euro and Yen

The net speculative CHF position has risen from -1.5K short to 1.4K contracts long (against USD). In the CFTC reporting week ending August 1, speculators in the futures market continued to build long exposure in the dollar-bloc currencies. In the three sessions after the reporting period closed, the dollar-bloc currencies have traded heavily.

Read More »

Swiss Retail Sales, June: 1.1 percent Nominal and 0.5 percent Real

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, June 2017

Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.1% in nominal terms in June 2017 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.5% compared with the previous month. Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays rose by 1.5% in June 2017 compared with the previous year.

Read More »

SNB reports a profit of CHF 1.2 billion for the first half of 2017

Income statement, 1 January–30 June 2017

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports a profit of CHF 1.2 billion for the first half of 2017. A valuation gain of CHF 0.3 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The profit on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 0.1 billion and the profit on Swiss franc positions stood at CHF 0.9 billion. The SNB’s financial result depends largely on developments in the gold, foreign exchange and capital markets.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance First half of 2017: Exports with record value

Switzerland Trade Balance, June 2017

In the first half of 2017, both exports (+ 4.4%) and imports (+ 4.8%) were dynamic. While the former scored a record result, the latter scored a higher in eight years. In both directions of traffic, chemicals and pharmaceuticals contributed decisively to growth. The trade balance loops with a surplus of 19 billion francs.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2017: -0.1 YoY, -0,1 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, June 2017

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, July 03 – July 08: Second Euro appreciation phase

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 08

The ECB appears to be preparing investors for a further adjustment of its risk assessment and a reduction of its asset purchases as they are extended into next year.
This assessment has marked a new phase of an appreciating EUR/CHF rate. It followed the previous phase, the one with and after the French elections.  

Read More »

Swiss Retail Sales, May: -0.3 percent Nominal and -0.3 percent Real

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, May 2017

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.3% in nominal terms in May 2017 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.3% compared with the previous month. Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.3% in May 2017 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered an increase of 0.3%.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of June 20): Surge in Positioning amid Currency Contract Roll

swiss franc june 26

The net short CHF position has fallen from 14.5 short to 3K contracts short (against USD). The expiration of the June contracts and the roll into September positions appears to have boosted activity in the currency futures, and may obscure the signaling effect. Of the 16 gross positions we track, speculators add to exposure in all but four positions. There speculators covered gross short Swiss franc, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollar positions.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, June 12 – June 17: Greenback Still Trying To Turn

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 17

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR Rarely in the foreign exchange market is there a V-shaped extreme. Most of the time, the high or low is a process that is carved over time. Although the explanation of the dollar’s weakness here in H1 vary, we continue to believe that the longer-term cyclical rally, the third since … Continue reading »

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2017: +0.1 YoY, -0.3 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, May 2017

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of June 06): Speculators Trimmed Exposure Ahead of Super Thursday

swiss franc june 12

The net short CHF position has fallen from 18.5 short to 16.5K contracts short (against USD). But the major movement was that speculators are net long the euro now and not the dollar any more. This implies that they are also long Euro against CHF. In the CFTC reporting week that covered the US employment data and the run-up to Super Thursday that featured an ECB meeting, former FBI Director Comey’s testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, the UK election, speculators mostly reduced exposure in the foreign exchange futures market.

Read More »

Switzerland GDP Q1 2017: +0.3 percent QoQ, +1.1 percent YoY

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product ,Q1 2017

Switzerland’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3 % in the first quarter of 2017*. Private consumption growth expanded only slightly, while government consumption rose moderately. Following the previous quarter’s fall, investment in construction and equipment increased.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of May 23): Speculators Remain Bearish the Dollar and Bullish Bonds

swiss franc may 29

The net short CHF position has fallen from 21.1 short to 19.8K contracts short (against USD). But the major movement was that speculators are net long the euro now and not the dollar any more. This implies that they are also long Euro against CHF. In the CFTC reporting week ending May 23 speculators in the futures market continued to largely position themselves for further dollar weakness.

Read More »

Swiss Trade Balance April 2017: Exports Stagnate

Switzerland Trade Balance, April 2017

In April 2017, adjusted exports of working days shrank as imports strengthened by 2.3%. Changes in sales were marked by the reluctance of the chemical and pharmaceutical sector. The trade balance has closed with the smallest surplus in the last two years.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of May 16): Yen and Aussie Bears Push Forward, while Sterling Bears Continue to Run for Cover

swiss franc may 22

The net short CHF position has risen from 15.2 short to 21.1K contracts short (against USD). But the major movement was that speculators are net long the euro now and not the dollar any more. This implies that they are also long Euro against CHF. In the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending May 16, speculators in the futures market made three significant adjustments in the currency futures.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in April 2017: +0.8 YoY, -0.2 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, April 2017

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in April 2017 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.1 points (base December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products and machinery. Compared with April 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 0.8%.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, April 24 – 29: Dollar Remains the Fulcrum

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M

Often the US dollar, as the numeraire, seems to be the main actor in the foreign exchange market. Other times, the dollar appears to be at the fulcrum between European currencies on one hand, and the dollar-bloc currencies on the other hand. Another way expressing this is whether there is a dollar-move underway or is it really more about the crosses.

Read More »

SNB posts 7.9 billion CHF Profit in Q1

SNB Results in the first 1 Quarters 2017: +2.2 billion CHF

The SNB reports a profit of 7.9 bn CHF, of which 2.2 bn come from the gold holdings. Given that the bank has introduced a “minimum euro rate” around 1.06-1.07, this is not very difficult. It comes at the price of continuing interventions.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in March 2017: +1.3 YoY, +0.1 MoM

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY March 2017

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in March 2017 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.3 points (base December 2015 = 100). The slight rise is due in particular to higher prices for scrap. Compared with March 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.3%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, April 03-08: Dollar Recovery Can Continue, 10-year Yield Set to Rise

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01

The US dollar appreciated against most of the major currencies last week. The Japanese yen was the chief exception. It rose about 0.5% as US yields remained heavy and equities were mostly softer. The Dollar Index did not fall in any session last week. It has had one losing session over the past nine, and that was the last day in March when the Dollar Index slipped less than 0.1%. It finished the week a bit above thee 61.8% retracement objective of the decline from last month’s peak (March 9) near 102.25, found just below 101.00 A trend line from the January and March highs is found near 101.40 by the end of next week. It corresponds to the 50% retracement of the Dollar Index decline from the January high, and near the upper Bollinger Band (~101.55 now).

Read More »

Swiss Retail Sales, February: +0.5 percent Nominal and +0.6 percent Real

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, February 2017

Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.5% in nominal terms in February 2017 compared with the previous year. However, excluding turnover from service stations, retail turnover fell by 0.3%. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.9% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office.

Read More »

2016 Annual Report of the Swiss National Bank

The Swiss National Bank carried out foreign exchange interventions totaling 67.1B Swiss francs in 2016 in order to counter “an undesired tightening of monetary conditions,” the central bank disclosed in its annual report. That was down from 86.1B francs in 2015, when the SNB intervened heavily at the start of the year following its decision to remove a cap on the franc’s value against the euro.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in February 2017: -0.2 percent

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, February 2017

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in February 2017 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.2 points (base December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for scrap, petroleum products and pharmaceutical products. Compared with February 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 1.3%. These are the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

Swiss National Bank Results 2016 and Comments

SNB Results Longterm 2016

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports a profit of CHF 24.5 billion for the year 2016 (2015: loss of CHF 23.3 billion). The profit on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 19.4 billion. A valuation gain of CHF 3.9 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The profit on Swiss franc positions was CHF 1.6 billion.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, February 27 – March 04: Dramatic Shift in Fed Expectations Spurs Dollar Gains, but Now What?

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 04

The pendulum of market sentiment swung hard and fast toward a Fed rate hike in the middle of March. The signals from Fed officials, including Governor Brainard and Powell, spurred the move. According to Bloomberg, the market had discounted a 90% chance of a hike before Yellen and Fischer spoke. A week ago, Bloomberg calculations showed a 40% chance of a move.

Read More »

Switzerland GDP Q4 2016: +0.1 percent QoQ, +0.6 percent YoY

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY, Q4 2016

The Swiss economy relies very much (and probably too much) on exports. In the fourth quarter export of goods fell by 3.8%, while imports remained the same. Investments dipped, too. On the other side, consumption rose by a strong 0.9%. In total, the economy grew by only 0.1% QoQ (+0.6% YoY).

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2017: +0.4 percent

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, January 2017

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in January 2017 by 0.4% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.4 points (base December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products, scrap and watches. Compared with January 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 0.8%. These are the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

FX Daily, February 08: EUR/CHF down to 1.630, Swiss Boom Starting?

EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 08

The reader might have seen the latest Swiss Consumer Sentiment and the UBS consumption indicator. They suggest that the Swiss boom phase should finally come.
I anticipated the boom already in my slides for the CFA Society. The Swiss boom was postponed when the SNB decided to remove the euro peg in early 2015.

Read More »

2016: Swiss Exports and Swiss Trade Balance at New Record-Highs: Swiss Franc Shock Digested

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF) September 2016

Following a decline the previous year, foreign trade grew again in 2016, with chemicals and pharmaceuticals shaping the trend. Exports climbed by a total of 3.8% (real: – 0.8%) to a record high of CHF 210.7 billion. However, the two other large groups – machinery and electronics, and watches – were unable to participate in the growth. Imports increased by 4.1% (real: +1.2%) to CHF 173.2 billion. The trade surplus reached a new peak of CHF 37.5 billion.

Read More »

Tourism accommodation statistics in November 2016: Slight increase in overnight stays in November

Hotels and Health Resorts, Autmn 2015-2016

The Swiss hotel industry registered 1.9 million overnight stays in November 2016, which corresponds to a slight growth of 0.5% (+9300 overnight stays) compared with the same period a year earlier. Domestic visitors generated 878,000 overnight stays, representing an increase of 0.9% (+7900). Foreign visitors generated 999,000 overnight stays, i.e. a very slight increase of 0.1% (+1400).

Read More »

Switzerland Unemployment December 2016: Rise from 3.3 percent to 3.5 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 3.3 percent

Switzerland Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted

Registered unemployment in December 2016 – According to the SECO surveys, 159,372 unemployed were registered at the Regional Employment Centers (RAV) at the end of December 2016, 10,144 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate thus rose from 3.3% in November 2016 to 3.5% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment rose by 743 persons (+ 0.5%).

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, November 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -0.6 percent YoY

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, November 2016

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in November 2016 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.9 points (base December 2015 = 100). The slight rise is due in particular to higher prices for scrap and petroleum products. Compared with November 2015, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.6%. These are the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

200 Russian Propaganda Sites, or simply alternative media?

The following is the list of “Russian Propaganda sites”, as published by PropOrNot. Several articles by the Washington Post refer to this list. Many sites on that list are based on libertarian ideas and Austrian economics. Those are in favor of a free market economy, they reject central banks and the establishment. The rejection of the U.S. establishment is possibly the only point that are in common with Putin.

Read More »

Switzerland Consumer Price Index in November 2016: -0.3 percent against 2015, -0.2 percent against last month

Swiss consumer price inflation remain the lowest in comparison with different countries in the euro zone and the United States. Consumer prices in the U.S. are driven by rising health care costs and asset price inflation in shelter. In Europe, we see the opposite phenomenon: Rents in Italy or Spain are steady or falling. In Germany and Switzerland rent control prevents that asset price inflation moves into consumer prices. In Switzerland, more and more supply is helping to contain housing costs.

Read More »

Swiss Tourism this Summer: More Swiss Guests, Less Asian Guests

In the summer months, the Swiss hotels registered more guests from Switzerland. from the United States and from Europe. But there was a sharp decline of guest from Asia.
100’000 more overnight stays from Switzerland could not recover the decrease of 200’000. One important reason for decline is the weakening Chinese currency, that reduced their purchasing power, in dollar but also in CHF.

Read More »

Net National Savings Rate, the Best Alternative Indicator to GDP Growth

For us the Net National Savings Rate is the best alternative indictator to GDP growth. It is positively correlated with the change in wealth, with the establishment of future productive capacity, the price of government bonds and currency valuations. But today GDP growth is often negatively correlated to the Net Savings Rate. Hence GDP is often a less useful measure.

Read More »

Swiss Q3 GDP: +0.0 percent QoQ, +1.3 percent YoY

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY, September - December 2016

Switzerland’s real gross domestic product (GDP) has remained almost unchanged in the 3rd quarter of 2016 (+0.0%). Consumption was nearly stagnated, while net exports had a decline. But investments increased by 0.5% on the quarter.

Read More »

Health Care Premiums: Is Swiss Statistics Hiding Inflation?

The latest data releases from Swiss Statistics shows that health care premiums have risen by 3%, while health care prices for consumers have fallen. The reason may be the oligopoly structure of the Swiss health care system. But also that we consume higher and higher quantities of health care. Or is Swiss Statistics cheating on inflation?

Read More »

Swiss Trade Surplus Shrinks in October

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF)

In October 2016, Swiss exports were down 5.6% (in real terms: – 10.4%) against the previous year. Imports rose by 1.8%YoY (in real terms: -1%). The trade surplus diminished, after months of rising exports.

Read More »

Weekly Sight Deposits: Investors hedge against Trump’s inflationary policy with Swiss Franc.

Euro/Swiss Franc FX Cross Rate, November 21

We explained the Trump reflation trade, where the Swiss Franc acts as the usual inflation hedge against the obviously inflationary policies of Trumpeconomics. Trump is about tax cuts – i.e. a fiscal deficit up to 10%, and about protectionism. Trump would restrict global trade and push up wages. According to Lars Christensen Trumpeconomics is also about monetary stimulus: Trump would push for a more jobs and a dovish Fed, same as his fellow Republican Nixon did. He could even replace the “hawk” Yellen.

Read More »

Swiss Unemployment Rate (ILO-based) behind Iceland, Germany and Czech Republic on position 4: All Four Countries Are Currency Manipulators

Unemployment Rate

With 4.8%, the Swiss unemployment rate based on the ILO concept is higher than the rates in Iceland (2.6%), Czech Republic (4.0%) and Germany (4.1%), but lower than the ones of the remaining 25 countries. As for youth unemployment, the Swiss are on position three with a rate of 11%, this is half the rate of the Eurozone, or a fourth of the rate in Spain or Greece.

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, October 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -0.2 percent YoY

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY October 2016

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in October 2016 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.8 points (base December 2015 = 100). While the Producer Price Index declined by 0.1%, the Import Price Index rose by 0.3%. The slight overall increase is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with October 2015, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.2%. These are the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, November 07 – November 11: The Trump Reflation Trade

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, November 04, 2016

The Swiss Franc Index rose sharply, shortly after the U.S. elections. But then the Trump reflation trade came. Trump may fulfills the wet dreams of many economists. With tax cuts he might extend the U.S. fiscal deficit up to 10% per year. This resulted in:
Gains on U.S. stocks, inflows in U.S. Bonds, inflation hedges gold and Swiss Francs.

Read More »

SNB Sight Deposits November 7: No interventions, EUR/CHF under 1.08 with political jitters

Euro/Swiss Franc FX Cross Rate, November 07

Sight Deposits: show that the SNB has not intervened to sustain the euro, that dipped under EUR/CHF 1.08. We considered the 1.08 as line in sand for the SNB. The odds of Trump are rising. This causes fear and demand for Swiss Franc. The EUR/CHF fell to 1.0750. Speculators were net short CHF January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25K contracts. We see these net short levels reached again this year, maybe even more. Reason the recently strong U.S. and European PMIs.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions: Rising Net Short Euro and CHF, but Stronger Euro and CHF

The weekly speculative position shows increasing short positions on the euro and on the Swiss Franc. On the other side, both currencies have appreciated, what they should not do if net short positions increase. This implies that there is real money, .e.g in the form of cash, bonds, stocks or real estate that is invested in the euro area or in Switzerland. For Switzerland, we will see this in the weekly sight deposits.

Read More »

FX Weekly Review, October 24-28: October Surprise Pushes Open Door

Swiss Franc Currency Index, October 22 2016

The Swiss Franc Index could recover some of the losses as compared to the US dollar index. Still the USD/CHF remains above 0.99. The US dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week, but the upside momentum appeared to be dissipating, even before the FBI’s announcement about new Clinton emails. There are a few exceptions like the greenback’s performance against the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona. The dollar made new multi-month highs against all three currencies in the last two sessions.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions: Net Short CHF Position is Increasing

1022-commitment-of-traders

The net short Swiss Franc position against the dollar has risen to the levels seen before the breakdown of the EUR/CHF floor.
It has increased from short 9.4 K contracts to 16.4 K contracts.
In the last week, speculators raised their short positions by 15% for both the euro and CHF. Euro longs against USD were up slightly, while CHF longs were reduced.

Read More »

Swiss Exports + 7.0 percent YoY, Imports +8.4 percent. Trade Surplus +3 bn CHF, Exporters Increase Prices

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF)

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity increases, while REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.
In August 2016, Swiss exports were up 7.0% YoY (in real terms: + 1.2%) and imports 8.4% YoY (in real terms: + 5.1%).

Read More »

Speculators continue reducing Euro shorts

Speculators are reducing their net short Euro positions, since Draghi’s comments on inflation. Apparently not only against the dollar but also against the Swiss Franc. This also means that the euro zone may be target real money (like purchases of stocks, real estate and bonds) instead of Switzerland.

Read More »

SNB Balance Sheet Now Over 100 percent GDP

Since 2008 the balance sheet of the Swiss National Bank has risen from 28% to 102% of Swiss GDP. Balance sheets of other central banks have strongly risen, too. But there is one big difference: The risk for the SNB is far higher, the SNB nearly exclusively possesses assets denominated in volatile foreign currency.

Read More »

Swiss Exports + 7.9 percent YoY, Imports +11.8 percent. Trade Surplus +2.9 bn CHF, Exporters Increase Prices

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity increases, while REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to neighbours. In July 2016, Swiss Exports were up 7.9% YoY (in real terms: + 2.4%) and imports 11.8% YoY (in real terms: + 8.2%). Exporters could even raise prices, as we see in the difference between nominal and real.

Read More »

Oil Supply Globally: Market Price Compared to Production Costs

Oil Production Costs Shale Oil Sands Oil Conventional

Mainstream media often speaks of the great shale gas/oil revolution and how it makes the United States more productive and a net exporter of oil. We wanted to go into more details,we compare oil production costs for US shale and global oil producers. As reason for the cheap oil we see the combination of two effects:

Demand: Cheap US money supported a Chinese investment boom in factories and housing until 2012. The over-investment phase is followed by lower demand growth.
Supply: The Arab countries need to maintain their social welfare systems, increased production, and – more or less deliberately – kicked high-cost fracking companies out of the market.

Read More »

Great Graphic: The Decline in Durable Goods Prices

This economic graph is maybe the most important in the last decade.  Service prices are rising, while goods prices have steadily fallen. The main reason for us is the possibility to outsource big parts of the durables supply-chain to China and East Asia. This is where productivity growth happens. Prices of services, however, are ever increasing. …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Household Savings Rate Compared

GDP growth is a bad economic measure. GDP growth in the form of consumption-driven (hyper-) activity (aka Bawerk’s “GDC” Gross Domestic Consumption) must finally lead to a depreciating currency, inflation, falling government bond prices and wealth in real terms. Instead, GDP should be driven by investment and the consequent improvements in productivity.

Read More »

The relationship between CHF and gold

Many people think that Switzerland is related to gold due to its inflation-hedging safe-haven status. Historically this is true. With rising U.S. inflation in the 1970s gold appreciated to record-highs. So did the German Mark and even more the Swiss franc, that maintained low inflation levels.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 05: Sterling Hammered to New Lows, Yen Pops, SNB intervenes

The British pound has been hammered to fresh lows just above $1.3115. The euro is moving toward GBP0.8500. The immediate catalyst is three-fold. First, one of the UK’s largest property funds has moved to prevent retail liquidation. Second, the BOE reversed an earlier decision on the capital buffer for banks, which is tantamount to easing policy by boosting the banks’ lending capability by as much as GBP150 bln.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 01: Markets Head Quietly into the Weekend

EUR/CHF finished the week after Brexit with slight improvement of 0.18%. The scare mongering by the Swiss media was misplaced. The euro even recovered from a dip after BoE governor Carney’s comments on Thursday. We do not see strong SNB interventions at this elevated price level. We judged that the interventions happened below 1.08.

Read More »

Purchasing Power Parity, REER: Swiss Franc Overvalued?

Most economists, like the ones at the Swiss National Bank (SNB), claim that the franc is overvalued. Many use misleading Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) measures like the Big Mac index, the OECD index or the PPP based on consumer prices for computing fair values.
The second big mistake is to compute the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) with the wrong “base year”The third error is to ignore massive Swiss current account surpluses, helped by high savings and by immigration of cheaper highly qualified personnel. Both help to reduce unit labor costs and achieve productivity gains. Eventually the ex-post FX evaluation based of capital flows in the balance of payments should clearly take precedence against the ex-ante FX evaluations REER and PPP, that are obviously misleading for the franc.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 21: CHF Strongest Currency Again

The Swiss Franc was the strongest currency. The euro fell from 1.0877 to 1.0808. Two fundamental reasons:
Speculator anticipate that German investors buy Swiss francs in response to the court decision in favor of the OMT and the positive ZEW.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 20: Brexit not the main Swiss Franc Driver

Recently I enumerated the different drivers for the continuing strength of the franc. Most commentators mentioned Brexit fears, but I insisted on the low rate and yield environment in the United States after the last Non-Farm Payroll report and the FOMC.
Today’s jump in sterling confirmed my view. This anticipation of an Anti-Brexit vote was not followed by a franc decline against USD. This also implies that a Brexit will not entrench a huge strengthening of the franc.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 3: FX Market Shocked by Non-Farm Payrolls

Massive surprise in the US job report was reflected in currency rates. The EUR/CHF surprisingly increased, despite weak US data. This reflects the fact that the ECB is currently considered the most dovish central bank. The dollar lost 2% against the yen, 1.6% against the euro and 1.3% vs. the Swiss franc.

Read More »

Switzerland GDP Q1 2016: +0.1 percent QoQ, +0.7 percent YoY

YoY Growth Swiss GDP

Q/Q GDP growth: +0.1%, YoY GDP growth: +0.7%.
Until 2014, Swiss GDP was driven by net exports: Exports were rising more quickly than imports, which improved GDP.
Positive change in the trade balance in goods: +8.1% YoY exports, +1.4% YoY imports in Q1/2016.
Negative change in the trade balance for services: export +2.0%, import +6.7% YoY
In 2015 and in Q1/2016 the main GDP drivers were consumption (+1.3% YoY in Q1/2016) and investment (+2.1%).
Government consumption and inventories lagged in Q1/2016, they dragged down GDP to 0.1% QoQ.

Read More »

BSI: The End of a Swiss Private Bank

Authorities in Switzerland and Singapore are punishing BSI, the private bank based in the Ticino region of Switzerland, for alleged money-laundering offenses, shutting their activities in Singapore and seizing part of its profits.

Read More »

Ten Most Expensive Countries for Healthcare in the World

Health costs Life expectancy Obesity

The United States spends 17% of GDP for health care, compared to around 10% in many other advanced economies. Thanks to rising health care costs, GDP growth was higher in the U.S. in recent years. The question is if this kind of GDP growth enriches the whole population or only the privileged.

Read More »

Swiss National Bank: Composition of Reserves (Assets) and Investment Strategy

The Q1/2016 update on the SNB investment strategy and its assets.
The Swiss National Bank is a passive conservative investor. As opposed to other investors, the exposure in currencies is as important as the strategic asset allocation according asset classes (bonds, equities, cash, real estate). The importance of currencies is one reason why the SNB is often called a hedge fund, the second the volatility of gains and losses.

Read More »

April 2016: SNB running suicide again?

snb intervention, chairman philipp hildebrand

Speculative position: Speculators are even longer CHF (against USD): +9410x 125K contracts.
Sight Deposits: SNB intervenes for 6.4 bln. CHF in only three weeks. Sight deposits (aka debt) are rising by nearly 1% per month, this is 10% per year. The SNB can never achieve such a yield on investment, her yield is between 1 and 2 percent. Is the bank running suicide again?

Read More »

History of Bank of Japan Interventions

We show the history of Japanese FX interventions. The Japanese only intervened when the USD/JPY was under 80. Therefore the 2016 FX intervention threads at 108 are ridiculous.
As opposed to the Swiss National Bank, the Japanese only talk, they do not fight.

Read More »

March 2016: Highest SNB Interventions since January 2015

snb intervention, chairman philipp hildebrand

Speculative position: Strong shift to CHF long: +4967x 125K contracts after the Fed reduced their expectations of rate hikes for this year. …………Sight Deposits: SNB intervenes for 6.1 bln. CHF during the month of March. This is the higest level since January 2016. ……….FX: EUR/CHF steady slightly over 1.09. As I expected last week, the EUR/CHF …

Continue reading »

Read More »

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and Critique

We examine the SNB monetary assessment statement of March 17 and the Swiss economy. We explain why negative rates may be a “toothless measure” if a central bank wants to weaken a currency. They have rather an inexpected consequence, they slow down GDP growth, in particular for banks and pension funds.

Read More »

Swiss National Bank Results 2015 and Comments

SNB Results Longterm 2015

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is reporting a loss of CHF 23.3 billion for the year 2015 (2014: profit of CHF 38.3 billion). The loss on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 19.9 billion. A valuation loss of CHF 4.2 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The profit on Swiss franc positions was CHF 1.2 billion.

Read More »

SNB Reduced Loss from 50 Billion in June to 23 Billion

According to the latest news release, the Swiss National Bank expects an annual loss of 23 billion CHF, after reporting a loss of 50 billion at the end of June. Primarily thanks to the stronger dollar, the SNB was able to achieve unrealized gains of 27 billion CHF in the second half. This reduced her annual loss to 23 billion. With its rate hike, Fed is helping the SNB: the dollar has appreciated by 6% since July.

Read More »

Swiss GDP and Swiss Franc Shock Propaganda

For George Dorgan the “Swiss Franc Shock” celebrated by the Swiss press did not affect the Net Exports component of Swiss GDP, but it rather suppressed growth in consumption. Therefore the Swiss economy could not replace lost export jobs by new jobs in the internal economy.

Read More »

Weak CHF during the Fat Years of the Joseph Cycle

In December 2015, the seven year Joseph cycle ended with a Fed rate hike. These lean years of the Joseph cycle started in December 2008 when the Fed lowered rates to the current level. We think that in the next seven year cycle, even the risk-averse Swiss investors will buy more foreign assets, not only the central bank and speculators. Different crises have passed in the three parts of the world, the U.S. subprime, the euro crisis and the Emerging Markets crisis. The last one culminated in the Russia crisis and the end of the peg in January 2015. At the CFA Society in summer 2014, I predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg. This time, however, I foresee a weaker Swiss franc

Read More »

Credit Risk and Capital Charges

Collateral distribution of ICMA December 2008 survey

Collateralisation reduces the credit risk on repo, which in turn can reduce the capital charge that regulators impose on lending cash. However, collateral has operational and legal risks, which means that, notwithstanding the comfort given by collateral, the primary concern in a repo should always be the creditworthiness of the counterparty. This is one of the lessons of the current market crisis.

Read More »

China in Continuous PPI Deflation and No Depression In Sight?

Both Chinese PMI and the producer price index (PPI) are in deflation since 2012. This opens a lot of questions about the sustainability of Chinese economic growth, but also about the certain economic theories that consider deflation as a precursor of depression, as it did in the early 1930s. China’s speed of economic growth simply slows, recently to 7%, according to China statistics “China’s Economy Showed Moderate but Steady Growth”.

Read More »

What Drives Government Bond Yields?

Private, Financial, Government Bond Debt

For us the five major drivers of government bond yields are:
Inflation expectations and inflation: The by far most important criterion. High inflation expectations must be compensated via higher bond yields. The main driver behind inflation expectations is the wage development, this is the form of inflation that typically persists. Price inflation follows inflation expectations with a certain lag.
Wealth: The higher the wealth of a country, the lower the bond yields. Wealth is typically increased by high savings.
Regular and irregular influences on bond yields by central banks: Regular: Central banks buy government bonds, in particular in US Dollars, the world reserve currency. Irregular: Central banks buy bonds of their own government and depress yields – the “quantitative easing”.

If a country has relatively low wealth then foreigners must help with the purchase of bonds and the following factors become relevant:
Foreign debt relative to GDP: Foreign bond holders want higher yields against risks (e.g. currency risks) of holding foreign assets.
The net international investment position (5a) and change in this position, namely the current account balance (5b).

Read More »

The Euro Glut: The Summer 2015 Update

Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos was one of the first to use the term “euro glut”. He anticipated a massive capital outflow from Europe that countered the huge European current account surplus. The Euro glut also led to the end of the EUR/CHF peg. Reasons are missing investment opportunities in Europe despite the high savings rate.

Read More »

SNB interventions June 2015

Latest update for June 2015: The pace of SNB intervention is slowing. Sight deposits, the indicator for SNB interventions, rise by 0.5 billion francs per week.
April and May: Sight deposits rise by 1.5 billion CHF per week. Thanks to this intervention the SNB is able to maintain the EUR/CHF around 1.0450.

Read More »

Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms

George Dorgan shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement in the local currency. Effectively, Swiss real GDP rose by 15% in Euro terms, but fell slightly in CHF. He also emphasizes that Switzerland needs a big rebalancing of its economy, away from exports towards consumption. The Swiss National Bank was right to remove the euro peg. The move towards consumption is only possible when the Swiss franc is stronger because consumers will profit on it.

Read More »

The two phases of CHF appreciation… and what is in between

We show the two phases or “two innings” of Swiss franc appreciation: The risk aversion phase and the high inflation phase.
With the weakening of emerging markets and the strengthening of the United States in 2013/2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had won the first battle in the war against financial market, the “risk aversion game”, the first inning in two-part match. Risk aversion is lower because the United States recovered with weaker oil prices.
The “inflation game” started earlier than we expected, at least in the eyes of the Swiss National Bank, namely in January 2015. They anticipate higher inflation that will come with rising wages in the United States and Germany.

Read More »

Is the Safe-Haven Government Bond Bubble Finally Bursting?

Government bond yields under 2%

The Safe-haven government bond bubble did not pop, but Italy or Spain have become low yielders as well
Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century?

Read More »

Ex-Post FX Evaluation: Is the Swiss Capital Account Able to Neutralise the Persistent Current Account Surpluses?

Net International Investment Position in % of GDP Switzerland United States

(post written originally in March 2013)
We reckon that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will have issues maintaining the EUR/CHF floor in the longer term, because the expected yields on Swiss investments abroad will not be sufficiently higher than the yield on investments in Switzerland. Because of this insufficient risk-reward relationship, outflows in the capital account of the Swiss balance of payments will not cover the persistent Swiss current account surpluses. Only strong outflows in the capital account may lead to a carry trade that may make SNB interventions obsolete.
We judge that the balance of payments model is the only useful ex-ante estimation and ex-post FX rate valuation.
Other ex-ante FX estimations like the Real Effective Exchange Rate for the Swiss franc need to be rejected.

Read More »

Rising Sight Deposits at SNB Means Rising SNB Debt

Money creation and sight deposits may have two points of view:
1. The central bank creates money – i.e. the SNB decides to increase sight deposits when it does currency interventions
2. Commercial banks create money – inflows in CHF on Swiss bank accounts make those banks increase their “sight deposits at the SNB. If inflows in CHF are higher than outflows then CHF must rise, unless the central bank does currency interventions.
We will present both alternatives.

Read More »

SNB’s IMF data

This IMF data on the SNB website shows SNB Forex and gold reserves in the last month. It is so-called “IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data)”

Read More »

The Swiss Political Compass

political spectrum ch

Libertarians close to UP Schweiz (Swiss independent party) ridiculed the Green Liberal Party, GLP and the Pirate Party as being in favor of the state and left-wing, hence not libertarian. George Dorgan suggests that both GLP and the Pirate Pirate are pretty close to UP, hence all three are libertarian parties. He thinks that the discussion if one is “Left” or “Right” needs to be left out completely, when we speak about liberty.

Read More »

(1) What Determines FX Rates?

Indian Rupee and Renmimbi against EUR

The effects of so-called “currency wars” and other central bank actions are small compared to the long-term impact made by these five catalysts, which include credit cycles, trade balance, differences in economic growth, and more.

Read More »

Marc Meyer

Marc Meyer

The best posts by Marc Meyer, the biggest and most influential enemy of the Swiss National Bank. He regularly published in German on InsideParadeplatz.ch

Read More »

(2.6) CPI-based Real Effective Exchange Rate Since 1965: Yen Still Most Overvalued Currency

Japa Switzerland Norway New Zealand Germany Australia Singapore Italy Canada Franc UK USA United States

If we calculate Real Effective Exchange rates on the base year 1965, the Japanese yen remains the most overvalued currency.
This analysis is based on the real effective exchange rate (REER) provided by the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) and a consumer price-index adjusted exchange rate.
The real value of the yen is around 50% higher than 1965, the same applies to the Swiss franc.

Read More »

(2.7) The Most Complete Real Effective FX Rate Comparison

bruegel effective exchange

In August 2013 the Bruegel blog offered one of the best comparison of long-term real effective exchange rates (REER). The data is CPI based and therefore not as good as the producer price index (PPI) that reflects tradable goods better.
However the data is huge with three different sources – BIS, World Bank, Eurostat, OECD and Bruegel. The data indicates how the real value of the currencies of China and many other Emerging Markets (EM) have improved against 1995. In order fulfill basic needs like food, transportation and housing, this expansion required more and more commodities. By consequence the commodity producers Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, Brazil and OPEC countries but also less known oil producers like Angola, Guatemala, Honduras, Sudan went into a boom.

Read More »

New Swiss Gold Initiative Getting Attention When Parallel Currencies Might Challenge Swiss Franc

Goldfranken

In Switzerland the ordinary people have started several initiatives to protect their savings against the establishment. After the first gold referendum failed in November 2014, a new gold initiative is trying to introduce a gold-backed Swiss currency, as parallel currency or investment vehicle.
With the end of the EUR/CHF peg and the apparent risks caused by the SNB, the importance of the Gold Franc initiative has increased. Different groups want to introduce parallel currencies in addition to the Swiss franc. CHF is based on fractional reserve banking and, according to the critics, its quantity is increasing too rapidly.
A sound money initiative (German “Vollgeld”) wants to abolish fractional reserve banking, while the new gold franc initiative desires a gold-backed currency. Already now, the so-called WIR money (“Our Money”) is a local currency created during the Great Depression. “WIR money” allows borrowing and lending, in particular for real estate. It is fully backed by commodities, like real estate. By law, parallel currencies, like WIR money, are not legal tenders. Due to a lack of convertibility into foreign currency, WIR money trades at a slight discount to the Swiss franc. This, however, might change when the SNB gets further into negative equity.
In the following we will compare the two gold initiatives.

Read More »

(5) The Balance of Payments Model

Eurozone July 2012 Balance of Payments

The Balance of Payments is the sum of current and capital account. The Balance of Payments model states that a currency appreciate when the Balance of Payments is positive. We give an explanation in around 400 words, that clarifies the relationships.

Read More »

(5.1) FX Theory: The Trade Surplus and the Real Exchange Rate Mean Reversion

Trade and Current Account Deficit United States 1980-2012

George Dorgan explains why currencies of countries with trade surpluses must appreciate over the long-term. Thanks to these surpluses, inflation and costs of companies rise more slowly than in other countries. In Forex a mean reversion does not exist, but only an inflation-adjusted reversion to the mean: a real exchange rate mean reversion or in short the “real mean reversion.”

Read More »

(7) FX Theory: The Asset Market Model

Correlation Treasuries vs. Yen

The Asset Market Model implies that a currency will be in higher demand and should appreciate in value, if the flow of funds into financial market of the country such as equity and bonds markets increase.

Read More »

(12) FX Rates, Contrarian Investments and the Misleading Concept Called GDP

contrarian

We extended our existing post to contrarian investing. It was published on Seeking Alpha and awarded the Editor’s Pick.
Gross Domestic Product(ion) is (or has become) a measurement of activity and consumption, but not of capital accumulation and production.
In many cases, GDP growth is negatively correlated to saving. Higher savings (aka austerity) leads to lower GDP growth today, but to higher GDP in the future.
In its worst case, GDP growth could be completely based on credit, eliminating the capital basis of a country (example Greece).
FX rates are less driven by GDP but by savings and investments, in particular on the corporate side, by investors and micro-economic indicators.
In addition to micro-economic indicators like price to cash flow or price to book ratio, the saving rate is the best macro-economic indicator of the investment style called “contrarian investing.”

Read More »

(14) Best Trading Tips

Read our contrarian insights: We provide regularly contrarian indications to technical Forex movements. Trade after work and do not look at markets during the day, third read scary facts about stops.

Read More »

CHF Is No Safe-Haven, but a Safe Proxy for Global Economic Growth

In our view the Swiss franc is not a pure Safe-Haven, but a “Safe Proxy for Global Economic Growth”. Global investors want to participate via the purchase of safe Swiss multi-nationals in global growth. This means inflows into Swiss franc denominated assets. Together with the big Swiss trade surplus, this implies a stronger franc. China stands for global economy, its slowing growth has a negative influence on the profits of Swiss multi-nationals and is therefore negative for the franc.

Read More »

What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction

In this post we give our (Swiss) view for the financial tsunami on January 15.
The SNB has preferred its secondary mandate, namely financial stability, and the elimination of risks on its own balance sheet caused by ECB QE.
It will not obey its primary target, price inflation, for the next three to five years. While in the mid-term (5 -10 years) inflation should move up.
Differing perceptions between Switzerland and the Anglophone world about “price stability in the medium and long-term” is the second explanation for the financial tsunami.
The massive trade surplus of 10% of GDP is the third reason.

Read More »

9) Markets

We are currently looking for an curator of this category. The aim is explain how to obtain sustainably nice returns on stocks and bonds. The focus here should be also on global macro. Sustainability is key: “buy today and sell far in the future”, for example when you get retired. Publicity for own books or publication is allowed.

Read More »

Quantitative Easing, its Indicators and the Swiss Franc

bernanke gold chf, dollar

The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis and, even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of bad US economic data and/or Quantitative Easing (QE). Risk-friendly investors move into risky assets like stocks or currencies of emerging markets, while risk-averse investors fear inflation and buy inflation-resistant assets like Swiss francs.

Read More »

German Home Prices Quickly Narrowing Gap against France – 2014 Update

german home prices

European national central banks released European household wealth reports in Spring 2013. According to that data, “median” German households were far poorer than many of their European counterparts. Based on 2012/2013 data we compared apartment prices and discovered that French prices were strongly overvalued or German ones undervalued.
We wanted to know if this is still the case in 2014 and integrated our 2012/2013 data with the one of 2014. We discovered that German home prices are quickly recovering their delay against French ones. Hence German wealth is ticking up again.

Read More »

Happy Xmas Lars von Trier

Handel Lascia ch’io pianga_

Dear friends and readers, Christmas is family time. But since my blog is contrarian, you read here a contrarian family post by one my idols, Lars von Trier. I just want to thank all my loyal readers and followers for following and commenting on my blog and any discussion on Twitter. Since the blog is driven by …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Swiss Gold Referendum: Results and Analysis

results gold referendum

In a referendum, the Swiss had to decide about:
1) Ecopop, an ecological-political movement that wants to limit immigration to 0.2% of the population.
2) Abolishment of tax advantages for rich foreigners.
3) A gold initiative.
All three initiatives were rejected, the gold initiative by 78%.
George Dorgan summarizes the outcome. He explains what it means for gold, CHF and the SNB. He argues that the next economic cycle will be driven by stronger wage growth in Germany and in the United States. He argues that in some years time the major enemy of the SNB will become inflation that is caused by rising Swiss asset prices and rents and from inflation spill-overs from Germany and the U.S.

The SNB will finally react according to the proposal raised by Prof. Janssen, a major supporter of the gold initiative: with a managed currency appreciation.

Read More »

Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP

Heterodox economic theories focus on the human desires to spend, to save, to obtain credit in order to anticipate spending and future earnings, to increase or to reduce debt or even to deplete existing savings, on human behaviour. Those theories neither think that humans are rational nor that markets are efficient.

Read More »

Why was the gold price so low in 1999/2000?

Domestic Private Surplus, Govt Surplus

To find further explanations as to why the gold price was weak in the late 1990s we analyze sector balances. Effectively private spending and private debt went in two different directions: a heavy increase in private spending and debt in the US against less growth in private spending and less debt in the rest of world. This combination fostered GDP growth in the US and weakened it in other countries. Real interest rates were positive. Markets thought that the debt-financed growth could continue for years; they created the dot com bubble on top of it that strengthened technology stocks and the related currency, the dollar. This rare situation led to excessively weak oil and gold prices.

Read More »

History of SNB Interventions

SNB Assets vs. Liabilities source UBS with EUR/CHF FX rate

High inflows of around 400 billion francs between 2009 and 2012 in the Swiss balance of payments could only be countered with an increase in reserve assets and interventions by the Swiss National Bank. This number is far higher than the one seen during the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, when the ten times bigger Germany had to buy reserves for 71 billion German Marks (at the time around 56 billion CHF). We look at the detailed history of these interventions.

Read More »

Vier Meinungsgruppen im Schweizer Goldreferendum, eine Übersicht

arena srf

Das Thema der “Abstimmungs-Arena” im Schweizer Fernsehen war „Gefährdet die Gold-Initiative die Handlungsfreiheit der SNB“? Dieser Blog versucht zu vermitteln, dass die SNB ihre Handlungsfreiheit im Sinne der Einhaltung der Preisstabilität schon im September 2011 verloren hat, als sie den Euro-Mindestkurs einführte.

Read More »

Swiss Gold Referendum: Opinion Polls

According to the latest polls 38% of voters would support the Swiss gold initiative, 47% are against it. The previous poll, recognized as more reliable, showed 45% pro gold and 38% against.
A win of the initiative would most probably imply a breakdown of the EUR/CHF floor.
According to the polls, low income groups are in favor. Effectively their purchasing power would increase when the CHF appreciates.
High income earners and stock owners are rather against it. If CHF improves Swiss stocks could collapse; this explains their voting intentions.

Read More »

Swiss Gold Referendum and SNB’s Opinion: An Exchange of Arguments

swiss gold

Already in 2013, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) spoke out against the gold initiative and revealed that the Swiss gold is stored mostly in Switzerland and 20% in the UK and 10% in Canada. There is no Swiss gold in the United States according to SNB chairman Jordan. In this post we provide an exchange of Jordan’s arguments against the ones of the gold initiative. We also state our view that is not as strict as the one of the referendum proponents.

Read More »

A Little History of Wages, Inflation, Treasuries and the Fed – And What We Learn from it

On this page we show that
Inflation expectations and wages drive the behaviour of the Fed and Treasury bond yields.
Excessive wage increases lead to recessions, more or less voluntarily caused by central bank tightening
Central banks pin down the short end of the yield curve, while financial-market participants price longer-dated yields
Some Emerging Markets seem to copy strong wage increases and inflation that we lived in the 1970s
Quickly rising higher wages in emerging markets may narrow their competitive advantage against the U.S. and Europe
Therefore the “secular stagnation” might not be so long as expected.

Read More »

Sept 2014, George Dorgan at the CFA Society: Predicted End of EUR/CHF Peg

cfa society

George Dorgan held a presentation at the CFA society in Zurich on September 1. The subjects of his speech were:
Reasons why the EUR/CHF exchange rate will fall under 1.20 once the deflationary pressures in Europe have ended
The missing link in the CFA program between its chapters on micro-economy, macro and currencies
Does history repeat? From Bretton Woods to Bretton Woods 2 and its slow end. Why the unexpected, the black swan happens more often than you think.
The slow end of Bretton Woods 2: rise and fall of the global carry trade and debt-driven growth
The contention that the Swiss franc must depreciate is often based on a simplified view on currency drivers and on “solely” one piece of the balance of payments. An evaluation must take place in full assessment of all drivers.

Read More »

The Dollar, the ISM, Buy American and Irrational Exuberance

retail sales emerging

In this Cross Asset Global Macro Analysis we name our reasons for the current dollar strength. The main causes are ECB’s euro “downtalk”, tight monetary policy in Emerging Markets, rising savings of the aging populations. This leads to weak global spending and growth. With the help of Fed-financed higher asset prices and falling gasoline prices, …

Continue reading »

Read More »

Swiss Franc and Swiss Economy: The Overview Questions

pictet long-term graph eur/chf, real trade

Before the upcoming SNB monetary policy assessment meeting on June 19th, rumors started the SNB could follow the ECB and set negative rates on banks’ excess reserves. We would like to deliver the whole background, starting with the question why Swiss inflation has been so low in the past and why CHF always appreciated.

Read More »

Stock Indices and Exposure to Emerging Markets

ftse evenues em

Monetary policy is and remains tight in Emerging Markets, in particular since many of their currencies collapsed in summer 2013. This created inflation and led to lower spending. We want to find out which stock indices in the developed world have which exposure to Emerging Markets.

Read More »

Über den Niedergang der FAZ und des deutschen Journalismus

niedergang faz

Das deutsche Zeitungswesen ist gleichgeschaltet und schreibt und kopiert die gleiche Propaganda, egal ob FAZ, n-tv.de, Spiegel, Süddeutsche, Focus oder das Staatsfernsehen (ARD & ZDF). Seiten wie compact online, Cicero, Deutsche Wirtschaftsnachrichten des Kopp Verlag sind aber dann wieder zu polarisierend. Es fehlt eine Zeitung von Qualität, die wirklich neutral informatiert und Meinungen vergleicht.
Es bleiben nur das Handelsblatt und die Schweizer Weltwoche als relativ neutrale Medien. Die Zeit ist noch einigermassen ertragbar.
Der Herausgeber des Handelsblatt hat in “Der Irrweg des Westens (Ложный путь Запада)” die Propaganda der Mainstreammedien kritisiert, ohne auf die stark polarierende Sicht von Compact “Querdenker jenseits von Links und Rechts” zu schwenken. Wahrscheinlich als Reaktion dazu hat die Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) anfgefangen über sich selbst zu reflektieren
Ich persönlich lese mittlerweile mehr die FAZ-Kommentare, da diese häufig eine bessere Qualität haben als der FAZ-Artikel selbst. Ein Auszug.

Read More »

Malaysian MH17: Ukrainian&Western Propaganda against Russian Propaganda. Who is Best?

MH 17 flight

strong suspicion that Ukrainian air control deliberately facilitated and enabled the shot-down. Combining Western and Ukrainian propaganda with pro-Russian propaganda helps. In each piece of “manufactured or exaggerated news” there might be a bit of truth. Still there is only one party to this conflict that has to gain from a deliberate blowing up of MH17, this is not Russia or the so-called “Donezk People’s Republic”.

Read More »

Will the Dollar Appreciate on higher U.S. Savings and a Smaller Trade Deficit?

industrial production

In summer 2013, even the sceptical and “gold-friendly” economist John Mauldin followed the mainstream thinking that fracking and other technology could reduce OPEC’s and the Chinese advantage in global trade and reduce the U.S. trade deficit. Recently both claims got refuted: the first with WTI crude oil prices rising to nearly 108$ despite enhanced supply. Detailed data showed that rising U.S. industrial production was not caused by more manufacturing but by mining and the oil industry. We think that any way the U.S. current account deficit could effectively shrink. The reason, however, is that the savings rate of Americans could rise further and the balance sheet recession continue. Traditionally currencies appreciate with higher savings (in local currency) and depreciate with more spending.

Read More »

Business Cycles

fed hikes rates wages

The typical backstops of all improvements in business cycles are high oil prices and inflation. Inflation is mostly caused by local effects.

Read More »

Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves

gold price vs. snb reserves 1

A critical Swiss Franc History: Between 2000 and 2007, the SNB made the Swiss cantons happy and delivered some billions of francs to prop up their finances. The gains were unfortunately not caused by strong asset management capabilities, but mostly due to gold price improvements and gold sales at quite cheap prices.

Read More »

Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets

gold inflation

After the Volcker moment or sometimes called “Volcker shock”, commodity prices plunged, the gold price collapsed. Thanks to additional supply, e.g. from Northsea oil, a so-called oil glut appeared. After the increase of debt in the 1970s, some economies in Southern America collapsed. The major reason was Volcker’s tight monetary policy with high interest rates and the dependency on US funds.

Read More »

The Swiss Radical Libertarian Party “UP Schweiz” Is Born

up schweiz

On June 18th, 2014, the new radical libertarian party UP!, “Unabhängige Partei”, Independent Party was founded. The party is co-headed by the former head of the Swiss young liberals, Brenda Mäder, the former head of the young liberals St. Gallen Simon Scherrer and Silvan Amberg, the former leader of FDP’s homosexual association. The FDP is losing some of their brightest minds.

Read More »

Germany: Last European Country with Lots of Cash Under Matresses

In June 2014, the ECB decided to introduce negative rates on the excess reserves of banks. We explain that German banks had already removed most excess liquidity before the ECB meeting of June 2014, and they will continue to do so. Hence hardly any German bank will pay negative rates after the recent ECB decisions at that meeting.

Read More »

SNB Bills, Chinese Repos and Reverse Repos

A repo provides liquidity to banks while the reserve repos aims to reduce liquidity and reduce inflation. In 2011, the SNB used SNB bills and reverse repos to reduce inflationary pressure. SNB bills are short-term bonds that pay a certain interest.

Read More »

Is the SNB Intervening Again?

snb intervention, chairman philipp hildebrand

Update March 21, 2014: Total SNB sight deposits increased to 367.8 bln. CHF, but flows reverted a bit. Foreign banks and “non-banks” reduced their CHF exposure at the SNB to 50.8 bln, possibly converting a part of the difference into USD. Dollars are more useful when sanctions will hurt both Russian and German firms. On …

Continue reading »

Read More »

The IMF Assessment for Switzerland and our Critique

international monetary fund

In the 2014 assessment for Switzerland by the International Monetary Fund several sentences caught our eyes; we will contrast them with our recent critique. The most important one was that for the IMF is only “moderately overvalued”, this would have no negative effect for exporters.

Read More »

Krimkonflikt: Über die Gleichschaltung der deutschen Medien

nato expansion endangers russia

Der Propagandakrieg in Russland, in den USA und insbesondere in Deutschland und auch in der Schweiz geht weiter. Russische Medien trichtern den Menschen ein, dass eine riesige Flüchtlingswelle von Russen aus der Ukraine stattfindet. Deutsche Medien sind gleichgeschaltet: von links (TAZ, Spiegel, Stern) bis rechts (FAZ, n-tv.de und Welt) trichtern sie den Deutschen ein, dass …

Continue reading »

Read More »

George Dorgan at Swiss Young Liberals: Slides

On Friday the 7th of February at 19.00, George Dorgan is presenting his outlook on the Swiss Franc. He explains if and when the Swiss National Bank is able to generate profits again. Moreover he discusses the influence of the two referendums “Save Our Swiss Gold” and “Against Mass Immigration” on the Swiss Franc and …

Continue reading »

Read More »