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Non-Farm Payrolls: Today’s preview

 

A detailed comparison of Non-Farm Payroll estimators from six different sources, like Bloomberg, ISM, Department of Labor and ADP.

The following spreadsheet gives a comparison of different estimators, more than just the Bloomberg preview,  for the important BLS Non-Farm Payroll report.

NFP Estimates

NFP Estimates June 2012

We used the following indicators:

  1. The Bloomberg consensus estimate (7 more sources, see right side) points to a slow increase in job creation as, with 100K total and 106K private new jobs,about 30K more than in May for each.
  2. The ADP report for the private sectors expects a strong total 176K rise and increases in both the services and the goods sectors (containing manufacturing and construction).
  3. The ISM Non-Manufacturing report, associated mostly with the services sector, shows a slowing in the headline as compared with May, but a faster rise in the employment component.
  4. The ISM Manufacturing report, contracts as for the headline. Jobs are created, but at a slower pace than in May. The 56/57 values for the employment part, are persistent since a couple of months, however they have not shown up in the recent BLS data, which showed only 9K and 12K new jobs in manufacturing.
  5. The Department of Labor shows a slightly rising unemployment in its 4 week moving average for the month of June compared with May.

ADP vs NFP 2

 

The recent productivity data show that job creation does not necessarily end in higher GDP growth.

The ADP report recently overestimated job growth in the US and does not possess a good track record.

 

 

 

George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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