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Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th

updated July 4,2012

This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs  compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out.

JP Morgan’s Global PMI: 

MonthManu factur.ServicesCom positeMichigan Consumer ConfidenceS&P 500CopperBrent OilAUD/ USDReference date
August 201351.756.155.282.116453304115.700.9053Sep 3, 2013
July50.854.954.185.117033168108.930.8903August 2, 2013
June50.651.352.984.11615
3176
105.85
0.9116
July 3, 2013
May50.653.753.184.51640
3297
99.92
0.9750
June 3, 2013
April50.452.151.976.41582
3126
102.85
1.0253
May 3, 2013
March51.253.253.177.615543354107.171.0424April4,2013
February50.853.353.073.815253508110.081.0202March4,2013
January51.553.453.371.315033658113.461.0427Feb4,2013
December 201250.254.853.774.514613700111.421.0481Jan 5, 2013
November49.754.953.782.714073656110.921.0432Dec 3
October49.252.151.382.614233557105.751.0338Nov 3
September48.954.052.578.314373775108.071.0231Oct 3
August48.152.351.174.314063485108.071.0239Sep 3
July48.452.751.772.3136133071061.0465Aug 2
June48.950.650.373.213573466971.0230Jul 2
May50.652.552.179.312633289980.9640Jun 3
April 201251.452.052.376.4140237821161.0260May 2, 2012
September 201149.952.652.055.7112331321020.9634Sep 2, 2011
February 201157.859.357.077.5133144981151.0127Mar 2, 2011
Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI

 


Detailed Manufacturing PMIs:

June:

Global PMI June

Global PMI June

 

 

 

July 2: 
S&P500 1357
Copper 3466
Brent 97
AUDUSD 1.023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Positive change/negative change ratio: 10:17
Expansion/Contraction ratio:  8:19

May: 

Global Manufact PMI

 

 

 

June 3: 
S&P500 1263
Copper  3289
Brent 98
AUDUSD 0.964

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Positive change/negative change ratio: 6:16
Expansion/Contraction ratio:  12:13

 

Recent trends:

Services PMIs in Germany and the UK followed weak Manufacturing PMIs.

US house prices see an upwards trend, whereas the ISM Manufacturing PMI goes south. Even if historically housing led the US out of the recessions, this time it is no help: Home prices took a lagging profit of the strong winter NFPs. In times of balance sheet recession, housing cannot save the US economy.  Negative equity may cause supply problems and higher prices. After the next probably negative NFP house prices will go down again. More reasons why the housing recovery hopes are overdone here.

 

Which indicators are the most leading ones

Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the most leading and important economic indicators. They are often driven by exporters, especially in countries with strong trade balances and currencies, whereas Services PMIs are determined by local consumers.  In most countries they follow the Manufacturing PMIs with a delay of some months.

During a global downturn or slowing (like now), the Services PMIs might be stronger than the Manufacturing PMIs. Examples are Germany and the UK, where Services PMIs (June: 49.9 and 51.3) are higher than Manufacturing PMIs (June: 45.0 and 48.6). Generally Services PMIs show less volatility.

For the US, however, we consider the ISM Services PMI (“the Non-Manufacturing PMI”) and the Chicago Manufacturing PMI to be the most leading indicators.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI  reflects the US consumer sentiment better than the University of Michigan or Conference Board indicators.

In September/October 2011 the Non-Manufacturing PMI was in positive territory whereas both consumer sentiment numbers saw very bad values. Stock prices were down because they often correlate more with consumer sentiment and less with leading indicators. Commodities are more strongly correlated with leading indicators. As suggest by the leading indicators, the US came later into a recovery phase, thanks to cheaper (gas) prices.

The Chicago PMI is strongly associated with the Chicago car producers. The indicator often ticks upwards after a strong fall of gas prices, like seen recently. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (here on Bloomberg) follows the Chicago PMI, often with a lag of one month. As opposed to the Chicago PMI, that reflects the US consumer demands for cars, the ISM Manufacturing PMI depends more strongly on global demand and exports.

The Citibank Economic Surprise Index compares economic data with investor expectations. It turned upwards from October 2011 on, when data was actually better than what investors expected. Currently (and similarly one year ago) it is the opposite, data is worse than investor expectations, the index heads south. More on seasonality effects and the implications for the SNB can be found here.

 

Further Links

Manufacturing PMIs historically:

 

History of ISM reports

History of JP Morgan Composite PMIs


 

George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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