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What is New?
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Julius Baer to offer private equity to ultra-wealthy clients
Julius Baer has poached a senior executive from rival Swiss wealth manager UBS to set up a new division offering private equity and debt investments to its ultra-wealthy clients. The move illustrates how a prolonged period of low interest rates has forced the likes of UBS and Credit Suisse to prioritise offering illiquid private investments to their super-rich clients, who agree to forgo access to their capital in the hope of achieving higher...
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Doubts over EU regulations deal raise prospect of higher City costs
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Dollar Rangebound in Quiet Start to an Eventful Week
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The Fed Is Trapped In QE As Interest Rates Can’t Rise Ever Again.
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FX Daily, July 13: Risk Appetites Firm, but the Greenback is Mixed
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: After SNB Meeting
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Credit Suisse settles U.S. shareholder lawsuit
SNB and CHF
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: After SNB Meeting
Update July 13, 2020: After SNB Meeting. Sight Deposits have risen by +1.6 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +1.6 bn. compared to last week.
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Umsetzung FIDLEG/FINIG: FINMA bewilligt erste Aufsichtsorganisationen
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Willkommen in einer Zukunft ohne Zins
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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2020
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Banks in Switzerland 2019
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Swiss National Bank forecasts deflation until 2022
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SNB Monetary Policy Assessment June 2020 and Videos
Gold and Bitcoin
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The Simon-Ehrlich Bet Did Not Settle the Question
Are you familiar with the bet? Ehrlich wrote a book titled The Population Bomb. He held a pessimistic view of the future, in which population growth would outstrip resources (essentially the same as Thomas Malthus).
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Gold Will “Trend Toward $10,000 Per Ounce Or Higher” Over The Next Four Years
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Gold Outperforms All Assets In 2020 YTD as Enters Seasonal Sweet Spot of July, August and September
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“The illusions of Keynesianism create a morally corrupt society” – Part II
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World’s Ultra Wealthy Urged By Financial Advisers and Largest Banks to “Hold More Gold”
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Defaults Are Coming, Market Report, 22 June
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WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised
Austrian Economics
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Game Over Spending
Coming and Going Like a Wildfire. Second quarter 2020 came and went like a California wildfire. The economic devastation caused by the government lock-downs was swift, the destruction immense, and the damage lasting. But, nonetheless, in Q2, the major U.S. stock market indices rallied at a record pace.
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The Great Society: A Libertarian Critique
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How Central Banks Destroy Money’s Purchasing Power
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Stocks Always Go up. Until They Don’t.
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The “Old” vs. the “New” Liberalism
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What Germany Must Do for a Speedy Recovery
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The Social Consequences of Zero Interest Rates
Swiss & European Macro
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No lack of foreign tourism demand in 2019
07.07.2020 - Foreign demand was strong in 2019. The income side of the tourism balance of payments grew, reaching a record level of CHF 17.8 billion. At the same time, people living in Switzerland did not increase their expenditure when travelling abroad, despite price conditions that were more favourable. The tourism balance of payments was negative at CHF -798 million, according to initial estimates from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).
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Swiss Retail Sales, May 2020: 5.6 percent Nominal and 6.6 percent Real
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Weekly View – Alive and kicking
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Weekly View – Reality check
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Swiss Trade Balance May 2020: signs of recovery in foreign trade
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Supplementary accommodation: 0.7 percent increase in overnight stays in 2019, but decrease in demand for holiday homes
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2020: -4.5 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM
Swiss Markets & News
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Julius Baer to offer private equity to ultra-wealthy clients
Julius Baer has poached a senior executive from rival Swiss wealth manager UBS to set up a new division offering private equity and debt investments to its ultra-wealthy clients. The move illustrates how a prolonged period of low interest rates has forced the likes of UBS and Credit Suisse to prioritise offering illiquid private investments to their super-rich clients, who agree to forgo access to their capital in the hope of achieving higher...
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Doubts over EU regulations deal raise prospect of higher City costs
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Credit Suisse settles U.S. shareholder lawsuit
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Coronavirus: no significant slowdown in new cases in Switzerland
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Immigration slowdown hits Swiss rents
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Swiss Unemployment Falls in June 2020
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Tour group blames coronavirus for 70 Swiss job cuts
FX Trends
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FX Daily, July 13: Risk Appetites Firm, but the Greenback is Mixed
Equities began the week on a firm note in the Asia Pacific region. The Nikkei gained more than 2%, and the profit-taking seen in China ahead of the weekend was a one-day phenomenon. The Shanghai Composite rose 1.8%, and the Shenzhen Composite surged 3.5%. Taiwan and South Korea markets also rallied more than 1%.
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FX Daily, July 10: Surge in Coronavirus Spooks Investors as China Takes Profits
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FX Daily, July 9: The Dollar is Sold through CNY7.0 as Chinese Equities Continue to Rally
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FX Daily, July 8: Consolidation is the Flavor of the Day
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FX Daily, July 07: Fade the Dollar Gains
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Cool Video: Dollar, Trade, and China on TDA Network
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FX Daily, July 6: New Record Number of Covid Cases Doesn’t Curtail Appetite for Risk
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Dollar Rangebound in Quiet Start to an Eventful Week
Today marks a relatively quiet start to what is likely to be one of the most eventful weeks we’ve seen in a while; the dollar remains within recent well-worn ranges. The US continues to ratchet up trade tensions; the only US data report today is the June budget statement.
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The Sinking Titanic’s Great Pumps Finally Fail
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead
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Second Wave Global Trade
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The American Economy in Four Words: Neofeudal Extortion, Decline, Collapse
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Dollar Bid as Market Sentiment Yet to Recover
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Monthly Market Monitor – July 2020
Markets
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Game Over Spending
Coming and Going Like a Wildfire. Second quarter 2020 came and went like a California wildfire. The economic devastation caused by the government lock-downs was swift, the destruction immense, and the damage lasting. But, nonetheless, in Q2, the major U.S. stock market indices rallied at a record pace.
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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
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The Decline of the Third World
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In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
A critical Swiss franc history: This chapter describes the most controversial episode in the Swiss monetary history: How the Swiss National Bank helped to wreck the Swiss real estate market in the 1990s.
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
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Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves
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Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History, from 2004 to 2009: The undervalued franc
Economic Theory
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Traditional Monetarist vs. Market Monetarists
Along the double mandate of the federal reserve, monetarists can be divided into. - traditional monetarists that focus on a slow increase of money supply in order to avoid price inflation. - Market monetarists that want to target growth and income instead of inflation.
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Ricardo’s Comparative Cost Theory, Heckscher-Ohlin Model and the Product Lifecycle Theory
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Is China’s Growth Rate Healthy Now? Golden Rule of Capital
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Mainstream Economics, The Long Run
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7a) Economic Theories Overview
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
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Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
