Swiss & European Macro
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Euro area core inflation to rise again after Easter
The ECB’s Governing Council may have to wait a little longer to get a clearer view of where euro area core inflation is heading in the near term. The early timing of Easter this year has made travel-related services prices more volatile. Another reason is that an unexpected drop in core goods inflation has fuelled concerns over a potentially larger FX pass-through.
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ECB policy: Stop Worrying and Love the Soft Patch
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Switzerland, still on the monitoring list
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in March 2018: +2.0 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM
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Hard data proves soft in the euro area
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The important role of official statistics in a world of fact, fiction and everything in between
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Switzerland Unemployment in March 2018: Down to 2.9 percent from 3.2 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.9 percent
Swiss Markets & News
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Healthcare costs rise further in Switzerland
Statistics published today show a further rise in Swiss healthcare costs. In 2016, spending on healthcare rose by 3.8% reaching over CHF 80 billion, 12.2% of GDP. In 2015, Swiss healthcare spending was equal to 11.9% of GDP. The challenge of rising healthcare costs is not confined to Switzerland. In the UK in 2015, healthcare costs rose 3.6% to reach 9.9% of GDP.
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Swiss unemployment at lowest in 3.5 years
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Europe’s most expensive hotels in Geneva, Paris and Zurich
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Sika stand-off with family heirs continues unabated
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Insurance boss suggests Swiss health insurance deductibles of 10,000 francs
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Geneva hotels are the most expensive in Europe
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Swiss welfare recipient made to repay 173,000 francs
Bitcoin, Monetary Metals & Gold Price
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Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns
Palladium bullion has surged a massive 17% in just nine trading days. From $895/oz on Friday April 6th to over $1,052/oz today (April 19th). The price surge is due to palladium being due a bounce after falling in the first quarter and now due to Russian supply concerns. In a volatile month, precious metals and commodities have been the clear winners so far, with palladium having the greatest gains of all – up 10.7% in April (see table below).
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Spoofing Futures and Banging Fixes: Same Banks, Same Trading Desks
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Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold
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Volatile Week Sees Oil and Palladium Surge Over 8%, Gold and Silver Marginally Higher and Stocks Gain
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Flight of the Bricks – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
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EU and Euro Exposed To Risks Including Trade Wars and War With Russia In Middle East
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Silent Circle founder joins metals-backed crypto coin project
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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The Retail Sales Shortage
Retail sales rose (seasonally adjusted) in March 2018 for the first time in four months. Related to last year’s big hurricanes and the distortions they produced, retail sales had surged in the three months following their immediate aftermath and now appear to be mean reverting toward what looks like the same weak pre-storm baseline. Exactly how far (or fast) won’t be known until subsequent months. Unadjusted, retail sale rose 5.12%...
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What Do We Know About Syria? Next to Nothing
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US Stock Market: Happy Days Are Here Again? Not so Fast…
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Bi-Weekly Economic Review
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China’s Exports Are Interesting, But It’s Their Imports Where Reflation Lives or Dies
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Global Asset Allocation Update: The Certainty of Uncertainty
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Why Trade Wars Ignite and Why They’re Spreading
SNB and Central Banks
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Weakening franc approaches symbolic mark
As the Swiss franc weakens towards the threshold CHF1.20 exchange rate, the likelihood remains slim that Switzerland’s central bank will alter monetary policy any time soon. On Thursday morning a euro cost CHF1.198 francs. In February, the price of a single euro fell to under CHF1.150. The greater the number of francs needed to buy another currency signals a weaker franc, and vice versa if the exchange rate declines.
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Monnaie pleine… ou monnaie vide?
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Elektronisches Zentralbankengeld hat Vorteile
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Création monétaire: Entente illégale entre banques centrales et commerciales sur fond de silence politique
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Vers une décroissance inéluctable
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Trilogie des Fiatgeldes (II): Das fraktionelle Reservesystem, die Mutter aller Finanzkrisen und die Quelle der Ohnmacht der Notenbanken
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Swiss central bank records huge profits after franc slide
FX Trends
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FX Daily, April 20: The Greenback is Alive
The US dollar is set to finish the week on a firm note. It reflects rising US yields, where the 10-year is above 2.90% for the first time since February and the widening two-year different between the US and Germany, which is holding just below 300 bp. It is the fourth consecutive advancing session for the Dollar Index, which is near a two-week high.
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FX Daily, April 19: Markets Calm But Lack Immediate Focus
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Weekly Technical Analysis: 16/04/2018 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, USD/CAD
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FX Daily, April 18: Greenback is Firm, While Soft Inflation Drags Sterling from Perch
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FX Daily, April 17: Dollar Recovers from Further Selling as Turnaround Tuesday Unfolds
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FX Daily,April 16: Market Struggles for Direction
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FX Weekly Preview: Still Looking for Terra Firma
Austrian Economics
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The “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries
I already discussed the “turn-of-the-month effect” in a previous issues of Seasonal Insights, see e.g. this report from earlier this year. The term describes the fact that price gains in the stock market tend to cluster around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically less profitable for investors.
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Negative Rates: Rise of the Japanese Androids
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Trade War Game On!
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Short Term Market Signals
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GBEB Death Watch
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Trendline Broken: Similarities to 1929, 1987 and the Nikkei in 1990 Continue
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Slaves to Government Debt Paper
Swiss Franc
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New CHF200 banknote to be introduced in August
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has announced that the latest addition to the new banknote series – the CHF200 note ($209) - will go into circulation on August 22. The brown note’s key motif will be physical matter. It will “showcase Switzerland’s scientific expertise”, the SNB said a press release on Monday.
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Budget busting burgers – Swiss franc still the most overvalued
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Swiss franc could hit 1.22 by year end, according to economists
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The Latte Index: Using The Impartial Bean To Value Currencies
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Swiss industry has learned to live with strong franc
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Is the Yen or Swiss Franc a Better Funding Currency?
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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
Europe and Euro Crisis
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Eurozone Faces Many Threats Including Trade Wars and “Eurozone Time-Bomb” In Italy
Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability. Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects. Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union. Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy. Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon.
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Euro area Flash PMIs: “Growing pains” but no reason to panic
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Europe chart of the week – French unemployment
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The Historical Warnings of Money
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L’Union européenne fait semblant de lutter contre l’évasion fiscale. Attac
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Europe Is Booming, Except It’s Not
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Eurozone Crisis Is Back
The Gold Standard
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Idaho House Votes Overwhelmingly to Remove Income Taxation from Gold & Silver
Boise, Idaho (February 12, 2018) – The Idaho State House today overwhelmingly approved a bill which helps restore constitutional, sound money in the Gem State. State representatives voted 60-9 to pass House Bill 449 sending the measure introduced by House Majority Leader Mike Moyle and Senate Assistant Majority Leader Steve Vick to the Senate for a hearing in the Local Government and Taxation Committee.
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The Big Reversal: Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Are Coming Our Way
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Falling Interest Rates
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Time to Hedge State Reserve Funds with Gold?
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If It Didn’t Abandon The Gold Standard, U.S. Empire Would Have Collapsed…
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Sound Money and Your Personal Finances
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Pension Funds Need Gold before It’s Too Late
Negative Rates and the Ban of Cash
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Negative Rates: Rise of the Japanese Androids
One of the unspoken delights in life is the rich satisfaction that comes with bearing witness to the spectacular failure of an offensive and unjust system. This week served up a lavish plate of delicious appetizers with both a style and refinement that’s ordinarily reserved for a competitive speed eating contest. What a remarkable time to be alive.
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Hard Assets In An Age Of Negative Interest Rates
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Negative Rates: The New Gold Rush… For Gold Vaults
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Europe Proposes “Restrictions On Payments In Cash”
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Migros Bank could pass on negative interest rates
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Wie die SNB durch Kapitalsteuern die Schweizer Wirtschaft belastet
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Canadian Bank Starts Charging Negative 0.75percent Rate On Most Foreign Cash Balances
Gold & Switzerland
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Six Banks Join UBS’s “Utility Coin” Blockchain Project
Here’s a piece of news that the remaining human members of Wall Street’s FX sales and trading desks probably don’t want to hear. According to the Financial Times, six of the world’s largest banks have decided to join a blockchain project called “utility coin” that will allow banks to settle trades in securities denominated in different currencies without a money transfer.
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Buy Gold Near $1,200 “As Insurance” – UBS Wealth
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New Gold Pool at the BIS Switzerland: A Who’s Who of Central Bankers
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Gold’s Advantages Over Fiat Currency – An Interview with Claudio Grass
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New Gold Pool at the BIS Basle: Part 2 – Pool vs Gold for Oil
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New Gold Pool at the BIS Basle, Switzerland: Part 1
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German and Swiss Precious Metals Refiners join forces as Heraeus acquires Argor-Heraeus
Helicopter Money
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Revenu universel, du néo-libéralisme jusqu’au bout
Les quantitative easing de la dernière décennie ont créé un assèchement de liquidités locales. Ceci est un fait observable. Les banques locales sont étranglées par diverses directives imposées par les tenants et « régulateurs » de la haute finance internationale (Finma pour la Suisse). L’échec économique se propage, avec de multiples faillites de commerces et d’entreprises? Vous n’avez plus accès à vos capitaux-épargne?
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The Path to Inflation: “Helicopter Money”
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The Point of War Is Not to Win
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Interview with Doug Casey
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Japan’s Planners Ratchet up Monetary Experimentation
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A Convocation of Interventionists – Part 1
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Finland Unleashes Helicopter Money In “Greatest Societal Transformation Of Our Time”
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF. Evans-Pritchard spends most of his time talking about the bearish yen implications of the increased BOJ purchases, and mentions GPIF only at the very end of the his essay, and even then to...
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
Marc Meyer
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„Vollgeld“ ist rotester Kommunismus – lanciert vom Ausland
Schuldfrei“ – so soll unser Geld zukünftig in Umlauf kommen. Das Wort „schuldfrei“ ist positiv besetzt. Wer möchte nicht schuldfrei sein? Jedermann. „Schuldfrei“ ist das zentrale Wort im Initiativtext der kommenden Vollgeld-Initiative, über die das Schweizervolk am 10. Juni 2018 abstimmen wird. Die Initiative kommt daher wie der Wolf im Schafspelz. Absatz 3 des Initiativtextes besagt.
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SNB-Jordan verkündet Kommunistisches – und lädt zum Gratis-Buffet
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UBS-Präsident Axel Weber wird sein blaues Wunder erleben – mit der Zahlungsunfähigkeit der SNB
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Zuerst verdirbt die SNB unsere Jugend mit Irrlehren, dann lässt sie sie fallen
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Wer trägt Risiko für SNB-Schuldenberg: Banken oder Volk? Darum gehts beim Staatsfonds.
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Wie entsteht Geld? Nicht so, wie Thomas Jordan uns weismachen will
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
In this chapter we describe how Volcker managed to defeat stagflation; he applied the monetarist models that had been applied successfully in Switzerland and Germany. Thanks to this effort, the dollar stopped its secular decline.
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker’s defeat of inflation strengthens dollar, weakens Swiss franc
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
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History of SNB Interventions
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
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Swiss Franc History, from 2004 to 2009: The undervalued franc
Economic Theory
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7c) Michael Pettis
The most important pages on MIchael Pettis and on sector balances .
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7b) Major Schools of Economics
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Post Keynesians
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Social and Geographic Theories and the Euro Crisis
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Hans Werner Sinn’s Piketty Critique: “r ≠ i > g”
