Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2018: The positive trend continues

In the first quarter of 2018 and on a seasonally adjusted basis, foreign trade confirmed the positive trend of previous quarters. Both traffic directions have also reached record levels. Exports increased by 0.2% and imports by 4.1%. The divergent evolution of inflows and outflows has led to the smallest trade surplus in four and a half years.

Swiss finance minister sees ‘clearly improved’ ties with US

Relations between Switzerland and the United States have improved under the Trump administration, Finance Minister Ueli Maurer told Swiss public radio, SRF, on Saturday. Maurer is heading a Swiss delegationexternal link, together with Economics Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann and Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Swiss National Bank, which is attending the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group spring meetingsexternal link in...

FX Daily, April 24: Stalled US Rates Steal Greenback’s Thunder

The US dollar looked set to launch a new leg higher, but rates stalled, which in turn is unleashing some mild corrective pressures. The US two-year yield has been unable to extend its increase beyond 2.50%, while the 10-year rate has stalled within a whisker of the 3% psychological threshold. The greenback's momentum did indeed carry it, but by late morning on the Continent, a consolidative tone was evident.

Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

EM FX came under renewed pressure last week as US yields rose to new highs for the cycle. RUB and TRY were the top performers last week, while MXN and COP were the worst. There are no Fed speakers this week due to the embargo ahead of the May 2 FOMC meeting. While we see little chance of a hike then, markets are likely to remain nervous.

Getting High on Bubbles

Back in the drug-soaked, if not halcyon, days known at the sexual and drug revolution—the 1960’s—many people were on a quest for the “perfect trip”, and the “perfect hit of acid” (the drug lysergic acid diethylamide, LSD). We will no doubt generate some hate mail for saying this, but we don’t believe that anyone ever attained that goal.

Weakening franc approaches symbolic mark

As the Swiss franc weakens towards the threshold CHF1.20 exchange rate, the likelihood remains slim that Switzerland’s central bank will alter monetary policy any time soon. On Thursday morning a euro cost CHF1.198 francs. In February, the price of a single euro fell to under CHF1.150. The greater the number of francs needed to buy another currency signals a weaker franc, and vice versa if the exchange rate declines.

Eurozone Faces Many Threats Including Trade Wars and “Eurozone Time-Bomb” In Italy

Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability. Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects. Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union. Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy. Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon.

„Vollgeld“ ist rotester Kommunismus – lanciert vom Ausland

Schuldfrei“ – so soll unser Geld zukünftig in Umlauf kommen. Das Wort „schuldfrei“ ist positiv besetzt. Wer möchte nicht schuldfrei sein? Jedermann. „Schuldfrei“ ist das zentrale Wort im Initiativtext der kommenden Vollgeld-Initiative, über die das Schweizervolk am 10. Juni 2018 abstimmen wird. Die Initiative kommt daher wie der Wolf im Schafspelz. Absatz 3 des Initiativtextes besagt.

Revenu universel, du néo-libéralisme jusqu’au bout

Les quantitative easing de la dernière décennie ont créé un assèchement de liquidités locales. Ceci est un fait observable. Les banques locales sont étranglées par diverses directives imposées par les tenants et « régulateurs » de la haute finance internationale (Finma pour la Suisse). L’échec économique se propage, avec de multiples faillites de commerces et d’entreprises? Vous n’avez plus accès à vos capitaux-épargne?

Negative Rates: Rise of the Japanese Androids

One of the unspoken delights in life is the rich satisfaction that comes with bearing witness to the spectacular failure of an offensive and unjust system. This week served up a lavish plate of delicious appetizers with both a style and refinement that’s ordinarily reserved for a competitive speed eating contest. What a remarkable time to be alive.

New CHF200 banknote to be introduced in August

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has announced that the latest addition to the new banknote series – the CHF200 note ($209) - will go into circulation on August 22. The brown note’s key motif will be physical matter. It will “showcase Switzerland’s scientific expertise”, the SNB said a press release on Monday.

Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal

Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.

Volckers Attack on Stagflation

In this chapter we describe how Volcker managed to defeat stagflation; he applied the monetarist models that had been applied successfully in Switzerland and Germany. Thanks to this effort, the dollar stopped its secular decline.

Six Banks Join UBS’s “Utility Coin” Blockchain Project

Here’s a piece of news that the remaining human members of Wall Street’s FX sales and trading desks probably don’t want to hear. According to the Financial Times, six of the world’s largest banks have decided to join a blockchain project called “utility coin” that will allow banks to settle trades in securities denominated in different currencies without a money transfer.

Idaho House Votes Overwhelmingly to Remove Income Taxation from Gold & Silver

Boise, Idaho (February 12, 2018) – The Idaho State House today overwhelmingly approved a bill which helps restore constitutional, sound money in the Gem State. State representatives voted 60-9 to pass House Bill 449 sending the measure introduced by House Majority Leader Mike Moyle and Senate Assistant Majority Leader Steve Vick to the Senate for a hearing in the Local Government and Taxation Committee.

Getting High on Bubbles

Back in the drug-soaked, if not halcyon, days known at the sexual and drug revolution—the 1960’s—many people were on a quest for the “perfect trip”, and the “perfect hit of acid” (the drug lysergic acid diethylamide, LSD). We will no doubt generate some hate mail for saying this, but we don’t believe that anyone ever attained that goal.

7) Economic Theory

Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?

Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF. Evans-Pritchard spends most of his time talking about the bearish yen implications of the increased BOJ purchases, and mentions GPIF only at the very end of the his essay, and even then to...