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What is New?
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FX Daily, August 12: Dollar was Sold in Asia and Europe, but is Poised to Bounce in North America
The biggest rise in the US 10-year yield in a couple of months, as the record quarterly refunding, got underway may have helped stabilize the dollar after an earlier decline. The S&P 500 threatened to extend its advance for the eighth consecutive session yesterday, but a late sell-off stopped it cold after scaling to new five-month highs.
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Silver Supply & Demand Still Strong at $29, 11 Aug
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Dollar Softens, Equities Rise as Markets Ignore the Negatives
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Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder
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5 Main Ways to Budget to save more money
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FX Daily, August 11: Gold and the Dollar are Sold while Stocks March Higher
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Traditional working model hampers Swiss women’s careers
SNB and CHF
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB buying euros at high prices
Update August 10, 2020: SNB buying euros at high prices. Sight Deposits have risen by +2.1 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +2.1 bn. compared to last week.
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Fed and ECB Money Printing Helps SNB Back into Positive Territory
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“Unabhängigkeit der Nationalbank (Independence of the SNB),” FuW, 2020
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“Monetäre Staatsfinanzierung mit Folgen (Monetary Financing of Government),” Die Volkswirtschaft, 2020
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Umsetzung FIDLEG/FINIG: FINMA bewilligt erste Aufsichtsorganisationen
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Willkommen in einer Zukunft ohne Zins
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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2020
Gold and Bitcoin
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Silver Supply & Demand Still Strong at $29, 11 Aug
And, *bam!* Just like that, silver sells for $29. It seems so simple, so obvious, so black-and-white. Seeing the price chart in recent weeks, you wouldn’t know that silver speculators have been waiting for this moment since March, 2013 (when silver crossed the $29 line to the downside, and has not looked back until now).
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Short Term Weakness Likely Prior To A “Massive Short Squeeze Propels” Gold and Silver “To Much Higher Levels” – GoldCore
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A blueprint for a European superstate
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Gold Reaches $2,000/oz Prior to Two “Concerted Attacks” In Futures Market
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Gold futures end a stone’s throw away from a record
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Is the West repeating India’s mistakes?
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Silver Breaks Out!
Austrian Economics
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The Dollar Is Dying
Insulting the Captive Audience. This week, while perusing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet figures, we came across a rather curious note. We don’t know how long the Fed’s had this note posted to its website. But we can’t recall ever seeing it.
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Claudio Grass: Fractional Reserve Banking is a Fraud
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Why Fed Bugs Really, Really Hate Gold
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Ralph Welborn on the Ecosystem-Based Strategy
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Why Keynes Was Wrong about Consumer Spending
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Political Self-Determination and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
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The Government Wants Your Crypto Data. And Lots of It.
Swiss & European Macro
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House View, August 2020
We have revised up our euro area GDP forecast for 2020 to -8.5%, mainly due to improving data in Germany, which is better positioned to recover rapidly from the downturn than its European peers. Meanwhile, the US economy has shown signs of flatlining amid escalating covid-19 cases in the South. Consumer confidence has taken a hit, while weekly unemployment claims have been rising again.
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Swiss Consumer sentiment makes a strong recovery but remains below average
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Record fall in overnight stays in first half of 2020
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Horizon 2020: long-term investing in a world marked by pandemic
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2020: -0.9 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM
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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2020: 0.4 percent Nominal and 1.1 percent Real
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Weekly view – The summer grind
Swiss Markets & News
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Traditional working model hampers Swiss women’s careers
Swiss women are losing out when it comes to achieving managerial positions compared to their male colleagues and female peers from other countries. The common Swiss working model of women taking over childcare and men working full-time makes it harder for Swiss mothers to climb up the career ladder.
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Coronavirus: Swiss health authority adds pregnant women to risk list
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Switzerland agrees deal for 4.5 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine
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Coronavirus: new cases in Switzerland remain at last week’s level
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Swiss International Air Lines’ turnover halved due to coronavirus
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Switzerland’s dark business with Ukrainian coal
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Pandemic crashed demand for hotels and trains
FX Trends
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FX Daily, August 12: Dollar was Sold in Asia and Europe, but is Poised to Bounce in North America
The biggest rise in the US 10-year yield in a couple of months, as the record quarterly refunding, got underway may have helped stabilize the dollar after an earlier decline. The S&P 500 threatened to extend its advance for the eighth consecutive session yesterday, but a late sell-off stopped it cold after scaling to new five-month highs.
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FX Daily, August 11: Gold and the Dollar are Sold while Stocks March Higher
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Speculative Positioning in Selected Currency Futures
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FX Daily, August 10: Monday in August
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The Ant and the Grasshopper: A Window into Macro Part II
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FX Daily, August 07: Position Adjustment Dominates ahead of US/Canada Employment Reports
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FX Daily, August 06: Markets Consolidate
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Dollar Softens, Equities Rise as Markets Ignore the Negatives
Markets seem to be increasingly desensitized to the usual negative drivers; the dollar is under pressure again. Stimulus talks remain stalled; reports suggest Trump is mulling a capital gains tax cut of some sort. US data highlight today will be July PPI; US Treasury begins its record $112 bln quarterly refunding.
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Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder
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SPECIAL REPORT: Follow The Money – Volume 5
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A Second JOLTS
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The Economy Is Mortally Wounded
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead
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If the “Market” Never Goes Down, The System Is Doomed
Markets
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The Dollar Is Dying
Insulting the Captive Audience. This week, while perusing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet figures, we came across a rather curious note. We don’t know how long the Fed’s had this note posted to its website. But we can’t recall ever seeing it.
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Game Over Spending
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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
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The Decline of the Third World
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In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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Personal Investment
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5 Main Ways to Budget to save more money
There are many ways to budget for personal households. And there is no such thing as the best way to budget that will work for everybody.Many people use many different ways to budget their life. As long as the way you choose works for you, it is enough. You just need to find the best way for yourself.
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Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Back To Extremes: Q2-2020
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Unprecedented Recession Synchronization
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Should you buy or rent a house in Switzerland?
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Reading The Market’s Postmodern Mind
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Frugal Living in Switzerland Interview 5: The DoubleDutch Family
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Shedlock: Millennial Renters Abandon Their Home Buying Plans
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
In this chapter we describe how Volcker managed to defeat stagflation; he applied the monetarist models that had been applied successfully in Switzerland and Germany. Thanks to this effort, the dollar stopped its secular decline.
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
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Swiss Franc History: From Bretton Woods until the Swiss real estate crisis
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
Economic Theory
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
