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What is New?
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FX Daily, August 07: Position Adjustment Dominates ahead of US/Canada Employment Reports
Escalating dramas may be behind the position adjustment today ahead of the US jobs data. The US and China feud expanded beyond Tiktok to WeChat, and efforts to tighten disclosure rules for Chinese companies listed in the US are nearing. The negotiations between the White House and the Democrats broke down, preventing or at least delaying additional stimulus.
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Swiss International Air Lines’ turnover halved due to coronavirus
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The Bogus “Recovery,” Stress and Burnout
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Ralph Welborn on the Ecosystem-Based Strategy
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FX Daily, August 06: Markets Consolidate
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Purchasing Managers Indigestion
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Swiss Consumer sentiment makes a strong recovery but remains below average
SNB and CHF
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Fed and ECB Money Printing Helps SNB Back into Positive Territory
Fed and ECB money printing and massive fiscal stimulus help the SNB to come back into positive territory for the year. The renewed asset price inflation compensate for losses on the US dollar.
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB buying euros at high prices
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“Unabhängigkeit der Nationalbank (Independence of the SNB),” FuW, 2020
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“Monetäre Staatsfinanzierung mit Folgen (Monetary Financing of Government),” Die Volkswirtschaft, 2020
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Umsetzung FIDLEG/FINIG: FINMA bewilligt erste Aufsichtsorganisationen
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Willkommen in einer Zukunft ohne Zins
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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2020
Gold and Bitcoin
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Short Term Weakness Likely Prior To A “Massive Short Squeeze Propels” Gold and Silver “To Much Higher Levels” – GoldCore
Gold and silver are set for a 5% and 6% gain this week and a significant 11% and 30% gain in the month of July.
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A blueprint for a European superstate
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Gold Reaches $2,000/oz Prior to Two “Concerted Attacks” In Futures Market
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Gold futures end a stone’s throw away from a record
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Is the West repeating India’s mistakes?
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Silver Breaks Out!
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One of These Silver Days is Not Like the Other, 23 July
Austrian Economics
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Ralph Welborn on the Ecosystem-Based Strategy
Key Takeaways and Actionable Insights Business strategy and business model design has traditionally been firm-centric. Entrepreneurs are called upon to establish firms, to make the firm the locus of value creation through value proposition design, assembly of resources, and production; and to ensure competitive advantage in comparison to rival firms pursuing the same customers. There is an entirely different way to approach economic value...
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Why Keynes Was Wrong about Consumer Spending
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Political Self-Determination and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
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The Government Wants Your Crypto Data. And Lots of It.
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A blueprint for a European superstate
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Silver “Scarcifies” – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
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The Government Wants Your Crypto Data. And Lots of It.
Swiss & European Macro
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Swiss Consumer sentiment makes a strong recovery but remains below average
Consumer sentiment in Switzerland has largely recovered from its slump in April. Expectations regarding general economic development have improved, but those regarding the labour market remain very negative. Accordingly, respondents believe that now is not a good time to make major purchases.
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Record fall in overnight stays in first half of 2020
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Horizon 2020: long-term investing in a world marked by pandemic
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2020: -0.9 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM
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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2020: 0.4 percent Nominal and 1.1 percent Real
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Weekly view – The summer grind
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Weekly view – Fog warning
Swiss Markets & News
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Swiss International Air Lines’ turnover halved due to coronavirus
The economic repercussions of the coronavirus have caused turnover at SWISS to fall by 55% in the first half of 2020. With a turnover of CHF1.17 billion ($1.28 billion) between January and the end of June, the carrier suffered an operating loss of CHF266.4 million in the first half of the year, following an operating profit of CHF245.3 million a year earlier. At the same time, the number of passengers fell by 64% to 3.2 million, the company...
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Switzerland’s dark business with Ukrainian coal
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Pandemic crashed demand for hotels and trains
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Murdoch becomes major shareholder in Swiss MCH group
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How Swiss staycationers are scouting out your next alpine getaway
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Temporary employee sector hit hard by Covid-19 crisis
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Swiss care homes and hospitals charged for mouldy masks
FX Trends
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FX Daily, August 07: Position Adjustment Dominates ahead of US/Canada Employment Reports
Escalating dramas may be behind the position adjustment today ahead of the US jobs data. The US and China feud expanded beyond Tiktok to WeChat, and efforts to tighten disclosure rules for Chinese companies listed in the US are nearing. The negotiations between the White House and the Democrats broke down, preventing or at least delaying additional stimulus.
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FX Daily, August 06: Markets Consolidate
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FX Daily, August 5: Corrective Pressures in the FX Market Prove Short-Lived
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FX Daily, August 4: Markets Looking for Fresh Directional Cues
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August Monthly
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FX Daily, August 3: Stronger EMU PMIs Fail to Recharge the Euro’s Upside Momentum
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FX Daily, July 30: Greenback’s Bounce is Likely Short-Lived
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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The Bogus “Recovery,” Stress and Burnout
We have three basic ways to counter the destructive consequences of stress.We have all experienced the disorientation and "brain freeze" that stress triggers. The pandemic and the responses to the pandemic have been continuous sources of stress, i.e. chronic stress, which is the pathway to burnout, the collapse of our ability to cope with the burdens pressing on us.
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Purchasing Managers Indigestion
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5 Tax Strategies to Help you Hold on to Your Money in Retirement
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Accusing the Accused of Excusing the Mountain of Evidence
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead
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A Vaccine May Not Be the “Magical Cure” Everyone Anticipates
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Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top
Markets
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Game Over Spending
Coming and Going Like a Wildfire. Second quarter 2020 came and went like a California wildfire. The economic devastation caused by the government lock-downs was swift, the destruction immense, and the damage lasting. But, nonetheless, in Q2, the major U.S. stock market indices rallied at a record pace.
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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
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The Decline of the Third World
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In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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Personal Investment
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Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Back To Extremes: Q2-2020
As discussed in Is It Insanely Stupid To Chase Stocks, the market has gotten quite ahead of the fundamentals as money continues to chase performance. In the Q2-2020 review of Commitment Of Traders report (COT,) we can see how positioning has moved back to extremes.
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Unprecedented Recession Synchronization
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Should you buy or rent a house in Switzerland?
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Reading The Market’s Postmodern Mind
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Frugal Living in Switzerland Interview 5: The DoubleDutch Family
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Shedlock: Millennial Renters Abandon Their Home Buying Plans
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Passive Fingerprints Are All Over This Crazy Market
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
A critical Swiss Franc History: Between 1996 and 2004 Switzerland and its main trading partner and FX proxy Germany saw slower growth compared to other European countries. We explain the reasons
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Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves
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Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency
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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
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Swiss Franc History: From Bretton Woods until the Swiss real estate crisis
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
Economic Theory
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Is China’s Growth Rate Healthy Now? Golden Rule of Capital
After a slowing in Chinese growth this year, economists recently stated that a hard landing has been avoided and that the economy might have bottomed out. Marc Faber has changed his mind and considers buying Chinese stocks. Also Sprach Analyst provides the following data: Sequential growth rates since Q1 through Q3 were 1.5%, 2.0% and 2.2% respectively, or in annualised annual rate, 6.16%, 8.24%, and 9.09% respectively. Compared that with the...
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Mainstream Economics, The Short Run
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Don’t Sell Economic Stability to Buy Economic Growth, Warns Tomáš Sedláček
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Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP
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Mainstream Economics, The Long Run
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Ricardo’s Comparative Cost Theory, Heckscher-Ohlin Model and the Product Lifecycle Theory
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Mainstream Economics , The Medium Run
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
