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What is New?
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Swiss Post stops accepting parcels and letters to China
Swiss Post has said it will no longer accept packages addressed to China, according to Tribune de Genève. Because of the covid-19 virus, airlines have stopped or drastically reduced flights to China. This fall in air traffic has reduced postal service capacity to China by two thirds.
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Swiss digital stock exchange offers partners ownership stake
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Time Again For Triple Digit Dollar
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Nationalism as National Liberation: Lessons from the End of the Cold War
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Ermotti’s UBS record: solid but not all plain sailing
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Credit Suisse MD Dies In Freak Accident After Slipping Through Chairlift And Being Suffocated By His Own Jacket
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Covid-19: Global Retrenchment Will Obliterate Sales, Profits and Yes, Big Tech
SNB and CHF
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USD/CHF New York Price Analysis: Dollar eases from session highs, trades below 0.9830 vs. Swiss franc
USD/CHF prints another 2020 high and retraces down in the New York session. Bears are challenging the 0.9830 level. After hitting yet again a new 2020 high, USD/CHF is easing from session highs. The spot is trading below the 200-day simple moving averages suggesting an overall bearish momentum in the long term.
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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bulls aim for 200-week SMA as MACD turns strongest in nine weeks
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2020-02-17 – The SNB’s Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Series: Carmen Reinhart to hold fifth lecture
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions
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Ein rationaler Erklärungsansatz für negative Zinsen
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“ECB Is Worst-Run Central Bank In The World” – Felix Zulauf Sees 30percent Plunge In US Stocks “Taking The World With It”
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Devisen: Euro stabilisiert sich nach neuem Tief seit fast drei Jahren
Gold and Bitcoin
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Widening Bid-Ask Spreads, Gold and Silver Market Report 17 February
The price of gold rose $14 and the price of silver fell $0.07. The gold-silver ratio rose further with this price action. Welcome to our new Gold and Silver Market Report, or “Market Report” for short. We are separating this from the economics essay, which was attached for many years. As they used to say in many toy commercials of yore, “batteries sold separately”—or in this case essays.
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Ex-cabinet members had knowledge of Crypto business dealings, say papers
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Gold Coins Worth £80,000 Found In Retiree’s Drawers In Cottage: “It Was Mind-Blowing. I Felt Like a Pirate in a Grotto”
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Former Swiss defence minister denies knowledge of Crypto-CIA links
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Investigation opened into Swiss encryption firm linked to CIA
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Gold Consolidates Near Six Year Record Highs At $1574/oz; WHO’s ‘Tip of the Iceberg’ Virus Warning
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Central banks weigh up response to Libra and bitcoin
Austrian Economics
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Nationalism as National Liberation: Lessons from the End of the Cold War
During the early 1990s, as the world of the old Soviet Bloc was rapidly falling apart, Murray Rothbard saw it all for what it was: a trend of mass decentralization and secession unfolding before the world's eyes. The old Warsaw Pact states of Poland, Hungary, and others won de facto independence for the first time in decades. Other groups began to demand full blown de jure secession as well.
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Gold is the 7th sense of financial markets
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Is Free Market Economics Too “Ideological”?
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Why It’s so Hard to Escape America’s “Anti-Poverty” Programs
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Gold is the 7th sense of financial markets
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Some Problems with Worker Productivity Stats
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Three Reasons Why Decentralization and Secession Lead to More Open Economies
Swiss & European Macro
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Swiss Trade Balance Q4 2019: Secondary sector shows positive growth rates again
20.02.2020 - Secondary sector production rose by 1.3% in 4th quarter 2019 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover rose by 0.3%. This rise has continued without interruption since the 1st quarter 2017 but was slightly weaker in the reporting quarter. This is shown by provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).
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Weekly View – Merkel under pressure
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2020: -1.0 percent YoY, unchanged MoM
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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 4rd quarter 2019: 0.9percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition falls to 3.9percent
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in January 2020: +0.2 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM
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Electric cars gain momentum: number of new registrations more than doubled in 2019
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Swiss Retail Sales, December 2019: -0.4 percent Nominal and 0.1 percent Real
Swiss Markets & News
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Swiss Post stops accepting parcels and letters to China
Swiss Post has said it will no longer accept packages addressed to China, according to Tribune de Genève. Because of the covid-19 virus, airlines have stopped or drastically reduced flights to China. This fall in air traffic has reduced postal service capacity to China by two thirds.
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Swiss digital stock exchange offers partners ownership stake
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Ermotti’s UBS record: solid but not all plain sailing
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Credit Suisse MD Dies In Freak Accident After Slipping Through Chairlift And Being Suffocated By His Own Jacket
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The labels that show how much more international retailers charge Swiss
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New Swiss aid budget proposes more funds but for fewer countries
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Tax on legal weed repealed
FX Trends
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FX Daily, February 21: Covid-19 Contagion Outside China Keeps Investors on the Defensive
Overview: The spread of Covid-19 outside of China and early signs of the economic consequences again emerged to weigh on investor sentiment. Poor Japanese and Australian preliminary February PMI reports and some trade indications from South Korea saw most Asia Pacific equities sell-off. China was an exception. The small gain (0.3%), lifted the Shanghai Composite 4.2% on the week.
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FX Daily, February 20: Covid-19 Hits Yen and Korean Won
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FX Daily, February 19: Investors’ Confidence Snaps Back
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FX Daily, February 18: Apple’s Warning Weighs on Sentiment
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FX Daily, February 17: Dismal Q4 Japanese GDP Fails to Spur Yen Movement
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FX Daily, February 14: Investors Continue to Look Past the Coronavirus
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FX Daily, February 13: Surprise? China Undercounts Afflictions and Fatalities, Curbs Risk Taking
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Time Again For Triple Digit Dollar
Being a member of the institutional “elite” means never having to say you’re sorry; or even admit that you have no idea what you are doing. For Christine Lagarde, Mario Draghi’s retirement from the European Central Bank could not have come at a more opportune moment. Fresh off the Argentina debacle, she failed herself upward to an even better gig.
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Covid-19: Global Retrenchment Will Obliterate Sales, Profits and Yes, Big Tech
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DM Equity Allocation Model For Q1 2020
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Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Sentiment Picks Up Again
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The World Is Awash in Oil, False Assurances, Magical Thinking and Complacency as Global Demand Careens Toward a Cliff
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European Data: Much More In Store For Number Four
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US Sales and Production Remain Virus-Free, But Still Aren’t Headwind-Free
Markets
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
Post Hoc Fallacy. On Tuesday, at the precise moment Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell commenced delivering his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee, something unpleasant happened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) didn’t go up. Rather, it went down.
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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The Triumph of Madness
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Markets on Edge as New Week Begins
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The Golden Autumn Season – One of the Most Reliable Seasonal Patterns Begins
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America’s Road Map to $40 Trillion National Debt by 2028
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Tidbits Of Further Warnings: Houston, We (Still) Have A (Repo) Problem
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
In this post we will show the history of the Swiss Franc until 1971, a monetary era driven by the gold standard and the Bretton Woods period, both periods with nearly fixed exchange rates.
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History of SNB Interventions
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
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Swiss Franc History: From Bretton Woods until the Swiss real estate crisis
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker’s defeat of inflation strengthens dollar, weakens Swiss franc
Economic Theory
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Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP
Heterodox economic theories focus on the human desires to spend, to save, to obtain credit in order to anticipate spending and future earnings, to increase or to reduce debt or even to deplete existing savings, on human behaviour. Those theories neither think that humans are rational nor that markets are efficient.
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Irvin Fisher’s Deflationary Spiral
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7b) Major Schools of Economics
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Richard Koo´s misleading take on the great recession: The final chapter – a guest post by Mark Sadowski
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7) Economic Theory
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Minsky and Kindleberger
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Mainstream Economics , The Medium Run
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF. Evans-Pritchard spends most of his time talking about the bearish yen implications of the increased BOJ purchases, and mentions GPIF only at the very end of the his essay, and even then to...
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
