Switzerland’s vote to change its monetary system – sensible or silly?

Sometimes Swiss voters are presented with questions that only specialists are equipped to answer. The vote on 10 June 2018 to change their monetary system appears to be one of these. © Valeriya Potapova | Dreamstime.com On the surface it appears simple. Upon closer inspection it contains much complexity and uncertainty, compounded by a widespread misunderstanding of how the financial system works – banks do not act simply as intermediaries,...

FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Power

There are several trends in the capital markets at a high-level. The euro and yen's decline has coincided with sustained rallies in European and Japanese equity benchmarks. Emerging market equities and currencies have been trending lower.

Europe chart of the week – Italy’s fiscal buffers

The incoming government’s fiscal plans could result in a sharp deterioration of Italy’s public finances. However, broader fiscal metrics are better than they were during the euro sovereign crisis.The M5S-League coalition has committed to a significant degree of fiscal easing and to the reversal of some structural reforms. Such policies will put Italy on course for confrontation with Brussels over deficit reduction targets, although at this...

Rapid escalation in Swiss fines for freight trucks

An increasing number of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) are being pulled over for motoring offences at border crossings. Customs officials have reported 83% more violations in the last eight years, rising from 17,997 on 2010 to 32,967 last year. A further 24,464 fines and cautions were issued against HGVs according to the SonntagsZeitung newspaper.

Emerging Markets: What Changed

Bank Indonesia started a tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike to 4.5%. Jailed Malaysia opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was released by new Prime Minister Mahathir. Malaysia scrapped the controversial 6% goods and services tax (GST). Violent protests shook Israel as the relocated US embassy opened in Jerusalem.

US 10-Year Surges, Emerging Markets Implode…Where Next for Gold?

US 10-Year Yields Top 3%, US Dollar Pushes Higher. Brent Hits $80, Highest in 4 years. Emerging Market Chaos, the Lira and Peso in Freefall. Italy’s New Coalition Signal Their Plans, Yields Jump. Japanese Economy Contracts, GDP Worst Since 2015. And Where Next for Gold?

Global Turn-of-the-Month Effect – An Update

The “turn-of-the-month” effect is one of the most fascinating stock market phenomena. It describes the fact that price gains primarily tend to occur around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically far less profitable for investors. The effect has been studied extensively in the US market. In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have shown a table detailing the extent of the...

Eurozone Faces Many Threats Including Trade Wars and “Eurozone Time-Bomb” In Italy

Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability. Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects. Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union. Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy. Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon.

„Vollgeld“ ist rotester Kommunismus – lanciert vom Ausland

Schuldfrei“ – so soll unser Geld zukünftig in Umlauf kommen. Das Wort „schuldfrei“ ist positiv besetzt. Wer möchte nicht schuldfrei sein? Jedermann. „Schuldfrei“ ist das zentrale Wort im Initiativtext der kommenden Vollgeld-Initiative, über die das Schweizervolk am 10. Juni 2018 abstimmen wird. Die Initiative kommt daher wie der Wolf im Schafspelz. Absatz 3 des Initiativtextes besagt.

Revenu universel, du néo-libéralisme jusqu’au bout

Les quantitative easing de la dernière décennie ont créé un assèchement de liquidités locales. Ceci est un fait observable. Les banques locales sont étranglées par diverses directives imposées par les tenants et « régulateurs » de la haute finance internationale (Finma pour la Suisse). L’échec économique se propage, avec de multiples faillites de commerces et d’entreprises? Vous n’avez plus accès à vos capitaux-épargne?

Negative Rates: Rise of the Japanese Androids

One of the unspoken delights in life is the rich satisfaction that comes with bearing witness to the spectacular failure of an offensive and unjust system. This week served up a lavish plate of delicious appetizers with both a style and refinement that’s ordinarily reserved for a competitive speed eating contest. What a remarkable time to be alive.

New CHF200 banknote to be introduced in August

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has announced that the latest addition to the new banknote series – the CHF200 note ($209) - will go into circulation on August 22. The brown note’s key motif will be physical matter. It will “showcase Switzerland’s scientific expertise”, the SNB said a press release on Monday.

Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal

Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.

Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods

In this post we will show the history of the Swiss Franc until 1971, a monetary era driven by the gold standard and the Bretton Woods period, both periods with nearly fixed exchange rates.

Six Banks Join UBS’s “Utility Coin” Blockchain Project

Here’s a piece of news that the remaining human members of Wall Street’s FX sales and trading desks probably don’t want to hear. According to the Financial Times, six of the world’s largest banks have decided to join a blockchain project called “utility coin” that will allow banks to settle trades in securities denominated in different currencies without a money transfer.

Idaho House Votes Overwhelmingly to Remove Income Taxation from Gold & Silver

Boise, Idaho (February 12, 2018) – The Idaho State House today overwhelmingly approved a bill which helps restore constitutional, sound money in the Gem State. State representatives voted 60-9 to pass House Bill 449 sending the measure introduced by House Majority Leader Mike Moyle and Senate Assistant Majority Leader Steve Vick to the Senate for a hearing in the Local Government and Taxation Committee.

Global Turn-of-the-Month Effect – An Update

The “turn-of-the-month” effect is one of the most fascinating stock market phenomena. It describes the fact that price gains primarily tend to occur around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically far less profitable for investors. The effect has been studied extensively in the US market. In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have shown a table detailing the extent of the...

Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions

Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?

Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF. Evans-Pritchard spends most of his time talking about the bearish yen implications of the increased BOJ purchases, and mentions GPIF only at the very end of the his essay, and even then to...