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What is New?
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The Federal Counterfeiter
Suppose you wanted to run an enterprise the right way (we know, we know, this is pretty far-out fiction, but bear with us). And, your enterprise has a $1 million dollar piece of equipment that wears out after 10 years. You must set aside $100,000 a year, so that you have $1 million at the end of 10 years when the equipment needs replacing. There’s a word, now archaic, to describe the account in which you set aside this money.
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Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events
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The Pandemic Gives Us Permission To Get What We Always Wanted
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The Japanese Love of Keynesian Economics Might Finally Be Coming to an End
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Why an Economy Can’t Work without Market Prices
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Most want masks made compulsory on Swiss public transport, suggests survey
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Dollar Firm as China’s Hong Kong Gambit Triggers Risk-Off Trading
SNB and CHF
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Swiss central bank could take negative rates lower
The rate on deposits at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is currently -0.75%. And while taking the rate further into negative territory is not the base case scenario, it cannot be excluded, according to some economists at the bank UBS.
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FINMA-Aufsichtsmitteilung 06/2020: Verlängerung oder Auslaufen von Erleichterungen infolge der COVID-19-Krise
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Why is the Pound to Euro Rate Falling? Will it Continue?
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Re-openings in the U.S.
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Announcement regarding recall of banknotes from eighth series
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SNB COVID-19 refinancing facility expanded to include cantonal loan guarantees as well as joint and several loan guarantees for startups
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Economic cost of pandemic will be enormous: SNB chief
Gold and Bitcoin
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The Federal Counterfeiter
Suppose you wanted to run an enterprise the right way (we know, we know, this is pretty far-out fiction, but bear with us). And, your enterprise has a $1 million dollar piece of equipment that wears out after 10 years. You must set aside $100,000 a year, so that you have $1 million at the end of 10 years when the equipment needs replacing. There’s a word, now archaic, to describe the account in which you set aside this money.
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Open Letter to Crispin Odey
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How crypto mining tried, but failed, to gain a Swiss toehold
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Clean gold: How Switzerland could set new supply chain standards
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“We are expecting a new wave and we’re prepared for it.”
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Pandemic, Lockdowns, Fake and Manipulated Markets – Gold and Silver Outlook
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Gold and Silver Markets Start to Normalize, Report 4 May
Austrian Economics
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Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events
Abstract: Much of Shiller’s new book is about how economic narratives form, spread, and fade. Drawing on medical evidence about the spread of infectious disease, Shiller argues that “economic fluctuations are substantially driven by contagion of oversimplified and easily transmitted variants of economic narratives.” But Shiller ignores the powerful role of monetary disorder, whether in forming the narrative or determining the contagion rate,...
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The Japanese Love of Keynesian Economics Might Finally Be Coming to an End
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Why an Economy Can’t Work without Market Prices
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Banking and Monetary Policy from the Perspective of Austrian Economics
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Let’s Hope Deflation Is Headed Our Way
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How Modern Economics Has Lost Its Way: It’s All About the “Unseen”
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Krugman: We Need More Unemployment—to Save Us from Unemployment
Swiss & European Macro
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Modern Monetary Theory makes inroads following coronavirus crisis
US policymakers’ bold actions in response to the coronavirus bear some traces of the free-wheeling deficits, repressed interest rates and central bank activism (money creation) that form the cornerstones of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) playbook.
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House View, May 2020
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in April 2020: -4.0 percent YoY, -1.3 percent MoM
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7.9 billion hours worked in 2019
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in April 2020: -1.1 percent YoY, -0.4 percent MoM
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Swiss Retail Sales, March 2020: -6.2 percent Nominal and -5.6 percent Real
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Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2020 : chemistry-pharma keeps exports in black numbers
Swiss Markets & News
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Most want masks made compulsory on Swiss public transport, suggests survey
More than two thirds are in favour of making masks compulsory on Switzerland’s public suggests a survey run by Tamedia, according to the newspaper Le Matin.
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Swiss maker of clean aviation fuel gets boost from Lufthansa
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Swiss finance minister concerned about Covid-19 debt crisis in Europe
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EasyJet customer data hacked
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Italy set to reopen borders with Switzerland from 3 June 2020
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National Bank snubs calls for more coronavirus money
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Minister calls for extra funds for Swiss unemployment system
FX Trends
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FX Daily, May 22: US-China Escalation Sinks Hong Kong and Hits Risk Appetites
Overview: The US has ratcheted up pressure on China on several fronts and has sapped risk appetites ahead of the weekend. Equity markets are lower across the world. Even in India, where the central bank unexpectedly cut the repo rate 40 bp, shares fell 0.7%. It was Hong Kong's 5.5% that led the region lower. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off around 1% in late morning turnover to pare this week's gain to about 2.5%.
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FX Daily, May 21: Markets Pull Back after Flirting with Breakouts
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FX Daily, May 20: Fed Funds Futures No Longer Imply Negative Rates
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FX Daily, May 19: Optimism Burns Eternal
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FX Daily, May 18: Yuan Slumps as US-Chinese Tensions Rise
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FX Daily, May 15: Much Talk but Little Action
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FX Daily, May 14: Risk Appetites Wane
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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The Pandemic Gives Us Permission To Get What We Always Wanted
Dear Corporate America: maybe you remember the old Johnny Paycheck tune? Let me refresh your memory: take this job and shove it. Put yourself in the shoes of a single parent waiting tables in a working-class cafe with lousy tips, a worker stuck with high rent and a soul-deadening commute--one of the tens of millions of America's working poor who have seen their wages stagnate and their income becoming increasingly precarious / uncertain while...
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Dollar Firm as China’s Hong Kong Gambit Triggers Risk-Off Trading
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No Flight To Recognize Shortage
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Dollar Firm as US-China Tensions Flare
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Dollar Treads Water Ahead of FOMC Minutes
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So Much Bond Bull
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Consumer Spending Will Not Rebound–Here’s Why
Markets
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
Gold Sector Outperforms Broad Market. The gold sector is in an uptrend since September 2018. The initially rather labored move accelerated after a secondary low was established in May 2019 and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages were breached for the second time. Last week the two moving averages were once again overcome in the course of the post-crash rebound.
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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The Triumph of Madness
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Markets on Edge as New Week Begins
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The Golden Autumn Season – One of the Most Reliable Seasonal Patterns Begins
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America’s Road Map to $40 Trillion National Debt by 2028
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
Accounts of the financial crisis leave out the story of the secretive deals between banks that kept the show on the road. How long can the system be propped up for? It is a decade since the first tremors of what would become the Great Financial Crisis began to convulse global markets. Across the world from China and South Korea, to Ukraine, Greece, Brexit Britain and Trump’s America it has shaken our economy, our society and latterly our...
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Swiss Franc History, 1970s: Due to US Stagflation CHF Strengthens Massively
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History, from 2004 to 2009: The undervalued franc
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker’s defeat of inflation strengthens dollar, weakens Swiss franc
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
Economic Theory
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Is China’s Growth Rate Healthy Now? Golden Rule of Capital
After a slowing in Chinese growth this year, economists recently stated that a hard landing has been avoided and that the economy might have bottomed out. Marc Faber has changed his mind and considers buying Chinese stocks. Also Sprach Analyst provides the following data: Sequential growth rates since Q1 through Q3 were 1.5%, 2.0% and 2.2% respectively, or in annualised annual rate, 6.16%, 8.24%, and 9.09% respectively. Compared that with the...
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Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP
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Richard Koo´s misleading take on the great recession: The final chapter – a guest post by Mark Sadowski
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Don’t Sell Economic Stability to Buy Economic Growth, Warns Tomáš Sedláček
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
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Ricardo’s Comparative Cost Theory, Heckscher-Ohlin Model and the Product Lifecycle Theory
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Supply Side Economics
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
