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What is New?
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FX Daily, April 2: Optimism on Oil Deal Steadies Risk Appetites…for the Moment
Overview: After US stocks dropped more than 4% yesterday, investor sentiment has improved, apparently sparked by ideas that the pain will force oil producers to find a way to reduce supply. Oil prices have surged, with the May WTI contract rallying around 7%. Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher, with Japan and Australia the notable exceptions.
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in March 2020: -0.5 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM
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USD/CHF Price Analysis: US dollar bulls nearing 0.9700 handle vs. Swiss franc
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EasyJet Switzerland seeks state aid as virus empties skies
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Coronavirus: loss of smell indicates “very high likelihood” of infection
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The Out Has Not Yet Begun to Fall, Market Report 31 March
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The Wonderful Insanity of Globalization
SNB and CHF
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USD/CHF Price Analysis: US dollar bulls nearing 0.9700 handle vs. Swiss franc
USD/CHF is trading up for the third consecutive day. The level to beat for bulls is the 0.9700 resistance. USD/CHF is rebounding from the 0.9500 level while challenging the 50 SMA on the daily chart. DXY (US dollar index) is gaining some ground vs. most of its rivals.
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FINMA-Aufsichtsmitteilung: Befristete Erleichterungen für Banken infolge der COVID-19-Krise
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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Intraday positive move stalls near the 0.9590 confluence region
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Devisen: Eurokurs im US-Handel nur wenig bewegt – EUR/CHF knapp unter 1,06
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Corona Panic
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USD/CHF hits ten-day lows near 0.9550 as the greenback remains under pressure
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Switzerland Peps Up SMEs
Gold and Bitcoin
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The Out Has Not Yet Begun to Fall, Market Report 31 March
So, the stock market has dropped. Every government in the world has responded to the coronavirus with drastic, if not unprecedented, violations of the rights of the people. Not to mention, extremely aggressive monetary policy. And, they are about to unleash massive fiscal stimulus as well (for example, the United States government is about to dole out over $2 trillion worth of loot).
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Alchemy Rediscovered by Research Scientist, Report 1 April
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Corona-Krise – Eine machbare, vertretbare Lösung
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Is gold still a safe haven?
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Global Supply of Gold and Silver Coins and Bars Evaporated In Safe Haven Rush
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Cash is Toilet Paper, Market Report 23 March
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COVID-19 – Auslegeordnung
Austrian Economics
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End the Shutdown
The shutdown of the American economy by government decree should end. The lasting and far-reaching harms caused by this authoritarian precedent far outweigh those caused by the COVID-19 virus. The American people—individuals, families, businesses—must decide for themselves how and when to reopen society and return to their daily lives.
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Oren Cass and the Conservative Critique of Pure Laissez-Faire
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The Last Thing We Need Right Now Is Bernie’s Proposed Tax on Financial Transactions
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More than Half of All US COVID-19 Deaths Occur in Only Four States
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Diversification versus Risk
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Is gold still a safe haven?
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Central Bankers Are Running Out of Options
Swiss & European Macro
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in March 2020: -0.5 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM
02.04.2020 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% in March 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.5% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).
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KOF Economic Barometer: Strongest monthly plunge since 2015
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Swiss Trade Balance February 2020: decline in foreign trade
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Coronavirus: Federal Council declares ‘extraordinary situation’ and introduces more stringent measures
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Switzerland Unemployment in February 2020: Down to 2.5 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.3 percent
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in February 2020: -0.1 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM
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Swiss Retail Sales, January 2020: +0.6 percent Nominal and -0.1 percent Real
Swiss Markets & News
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EasyJet Switzerland seeks state aid as virus empties skies
Airlines around the world are battling to survive the coronavirus pandemic. After grounding its fleet of planes on Monday, EasyJet Switzerland has confirmed that it is hoping to receive Swiss state aid. EasyJet said on Monday that it had grounded its fleet of 344 planes and had no clear idea when it might resume flights. In Switzerland, the airline normally operates flights to Geneva, Basel-Mulhouse and Zurich airports.
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Coronavirus: loss of smell indicates “very high likelihood” of infection
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UBS: Does Anyone Know What Is Happening?
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Coronavirus: deciding who gets a ventilator
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Swiss real estate market suffers fallout from epidemic
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Swiss firms rush to claim emergency coronavirus loans
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Record exports drive up Swiss chocolate sales
FX Trends
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FX Daily, April 2: Optimism on Oil Deal Steadies Risk Appetites…for the Moment
Overview: After US stocks dropped more than 4% yesterday, investor sentiment has improved, apparently sparked by ideas that the pain will force oil producers to find a way to reduce supply. Oil prices have surged, with the May WTI contract rallying around 7%. Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher, with Japan and Australia the notable exceptions.
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FX Daily, April 1: Hemorrhaging Resumes
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FX Daily, March 31: March Ends like a Lion, No Lamb in Sight
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FX Daily, March 30: Monday Blues
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FX Daily, March 27: Nervousness Ahead of the Weekend
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FX Daily, March 26: Rumor Bought, Fact Sold
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SNB sets up refinancing facility and deactivates counter-cyclical buffer
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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The Wonderful Insanity of Globalization
So here's an April Fools congrats to globalization's many fools. The tradition here at Of Two Minds is to make use of April Fool's Day for a bit of parody or satire, but I'm breaking with tradition and presenting something that is all too real but borders on parody: the wonderful insanity of globalization.
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China’s Back!
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(No) Dollars And (No) Sense: Eighty Argentinas
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The New (Forced) Frugality
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Drivers for the Week Ahead
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It’s Not About Jobless Claims Today, It’s About What Will Hamper Job Growth In A Few Months
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No Further Comment Necessary At This Point
Markets
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
Post Hoc Fallacy. On Tuesday, at the precise moment Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell commenced delivering his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee, something unpleasant happened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) didn’t go up. Rather, it went down.
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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The Triumph of Madness
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Markets on Edge as New Week Begins
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The Golden Autumn Season – One of the Most Reliable Seasonal Patterns Begins
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America’s Road Map to $40 Trillion National Debt by 2028
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Tidbits Of Further Warnings: Houston, We (Still) Have A (Repo) Problem
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves
A critical Swiss Franc History: Between 2000 and 2007, the SNB made the Swiss cantons happy and delivered some billions of francs to prop up their finances. The gains were unfortunately not caused by strong asset management capabilities, but mostly due to gold price improvements and gold sales at quite cheap prices.
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Swiss Franc History, 1970s: Due to US Stagflation CHF Strengthens Massively
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker’s defeat of inflation strengthens dollar, weakens Swiss franc
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
Economic Theory
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Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP
Heterodox economic theories focus on the human desires to spend, to save, to obtain credit in order to anticipate spending and future earnings, to increase or to reduce debt or even to deplete existing savings, on human behaviour. Those theories neither think that humans are rational nor that markets are efficient.
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Is China’s Growth Rate Healthy Now? Golden Rule of Capital
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Richard Koo´s misleading take on the great recession: The final chapter – a guest post by Mark Sadowski
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Social and Geographic Theories and the Euro Crisis
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Ricardo’s Comparative Cost Theory, Heckscher-Ohlin Model and the Product Lifecycle Theory
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7b) Major Schools of Economics
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7) Economic Theory
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
