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What is New?
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Immigration slowdown hits Swiss rents
In 1999, Switzerland signed a deal with the EU allowing free movement of people between Switzerland and the bloc. The deal came into force in 2002. This led to a rise in immigration into Switzerland, which in turn eventually led to rising rents.
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How Central Banks Destroy Money’s Purchasing Power
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Swiss Unemployment Falls in June 2020
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The Simon-Ehrlich Bet Did Not Settle the Question
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FX Daily, July 10: Surge in Coronavirus Spooks Investors as China Takes Profits
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Tour group blames coronavirus for 70 Swiss job cuts
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Second Wave Global Trade
SNB and CHF
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Umsetzung FIDLEG/FINIG: FINMA bewilligt erste Aufsichtsorganisationen
Die Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht FINMA erteilt OSIF und OSFIN die ersten Bewilligungen als Aufsichtsorganisationen, zuständig für die Aufsicht über Vermögensverwalter und Trustees. Weiter liess sie die erste Registrierungsstelle für Kundenberaterinnen und Kundenberater zu. Das Eidgenössische Finanzdepartement anerkannte ausserdem die ersten Ombudsstellen nach FIDLEG für Finanzdienstleister.
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: After SNB Meeting
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Willkommen in einer Zukunft ohne Zins
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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2020
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Banks in Switzerland 2019
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Swiss National Bank forecasts deflation until 2022
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SNB Monetary Policy Assessment June 2020 and Videos
Gold and Bitcoin
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The Simon-Ehrlich Bet Did Not Settle the Question
Are you familiar with the bet? Ehrlich wrote a book titled The Population Bomb. He held a pessimistic view of the future, in which population growth would outstrip resources (essentially the same as Thomas Malthus).
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Gold Will “Trend Toward $10,000 Per Ounce Or Higher” Over The Next Four Years
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Gold Outperforms All Assets In 2020 YTD as Enters Seasonal Sweet Spot of July, August and September
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“The illusions of Keynesianism create a morally corrupt society” – Part II
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World’s Ultra Wealthy Urged By Financial Advisers and Largest Banks to “Hold More Gold”
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Defaults Are Coming, Market Report, 22 June
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WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised
Austrian Economics
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How Central Banks Destroy Money’s Purchasing Power
Most economists hold that a growing economy requires a growing money stock on grounds that growth gives rise to a greater demand for money that must be accommodated. Failing to do so, it is maintained, will lead to a decline in the prices of goods and services, which in turn will destabilize the economy and lead to an economic recession, or even worse, depression.
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Stocks Always Go up. Until They Don’t.
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The “Old” vs. the “New” Liberalism
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What Germany Must Do for a Speedy Recovery
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The Social Consequences of Zero Interest Rates
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Will the Police Crack Down on Lockdown Violators the Second Time Around?
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The Disastrous Legacy of Woodrow Wilson
Swiss & European Macro
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No lack of foreign tourism demand in 2019
07.07.2020 - Foreign demand was strong in 2019. The income side of the tourism balance of payments grew, reaching a record level of CHF 17.8 billion. At the same time, people living in Switzerland did not increase their expenditure when travelling abroad, despite price conditions that were more favourable. The tourism balance of payments was negative at CHF -798 million, according to initial estimates from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).
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Swiss Retail Sales, May 2020: 5.6 percent Nominal and 6.6 percent Real
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Weekly View – Alive and kicking
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Weekly View – Reality check
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Swiss Trade Balance May 2020: signs of recovery in foreign trade
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Supplementary accommodation: 0.7 percent increase in overnight stays in 2019, but decrease in demand for holiday homes
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2020: -4.5 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM
Swiss Markets & News
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Immigration slowdown hits Swiss rents
In 1999, Switzerland signed a deal with the EU allowing free movement of people between Switzerland and the bloc. The deal came into force in 2002. This led to a rise in immigration into Switzerland, which in turn eventually led to rising rents.
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Swiss Unemployment Falls in June 2020
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Tour group blames coronavirus for 70 Swiss job cuts
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Inside Geneva: World trade at a crossroads
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New Geneva platform to ‘anticipate societal changes’
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Travel destinations seek tourists, but not the crowds
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Motorway station supplier goes into liquidation
FX Trends
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FX Daily, July 10: Surge in Coronavirus Spooks Investors as China Takes Profits
Record fatalities in a few US states, coupled with new travel restrictions in Italy and Australia, have given markets a pause ahead of the weekend. News that two state-backed funds in China took profits snapped the eight-day advance in Shanghai at the same time as there is an attempt to rein in the use of margin.
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FX Daily, July 9: The Dollar is Sold through CNY7.0 as Chinese Equities Continue to Rally
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FX Daily, July 8: Consolidation is the Flavor of the Day
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FX Daily, July 07: Fade the Dollar Gains
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Cool Video: Dollar, Trade, and China on TDA Network
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FX Daily, July 6: New Record Number of Covid Cases Doesn’t Curtail Appetite for Risk
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FX Daily, July 2: Dollar Thumped Ahead of US Jobs Report
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Second Wave Global Trade
Unlike some sentiment indicators, the ISM Non-manufacturing, in particular, actual trade in goods continued to contract in May 2020. Both exports and imports fell further, though the rate of descent has improved. In fact, that’s all the other, more subdued PMI’s like Markit’s have been suggesting.
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The American Economy in Four Words: Neofeudal Extortion, Decline, Collapse
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Dollar Bid as Market Sentiment Yet to Recover
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Monthly Market Monitor – July 2020
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Gratuitously Impatient (For a) Rebound
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What Makes You Think the Stock Market Will Even Exist in 2024?
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead
Markets
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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver. Silver, often referred to as the “little brother” of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to share with you.
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The Decline of the Third World
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In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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The Triumph of Madness
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
A critical Swiss franc history: This chapter describes the most controversial episode in the Swiss monetary history: How the Swiss National Bank helped to wreck the Swiss real estate market in the 1990s.
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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Swiss Franc History, from 2004 to 2009: The undervalued franc
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Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves
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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
Economic Theory
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Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP
Heterodox economic theories focus on the human desires to spend, to save, to obtain credit in order to anticipate spending and future earnings, to increase or to reduce debt or even to deplete existing savings, on human behaviour. Those theories neither think that humans are rational nor that markets are efficient.
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Social and Geographic Theories and the Euro Crisis
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Post Keynesians
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7a) Economic Theories Overview
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Mainstream Economics, The Long Run
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The Cost-Push Inflation Legend
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Mainstream Economics, The Short Run
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
