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What is New?
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Swiss Covid-19 contact tracing app ready for privacy testing
Authorities have released the source code of the SwissCovid app to the public to allow experts and hackers to detect any risks to privacy before the official launch.
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Coronavirus: Switzerland plans to lift all restrictions on Schengen movement
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Asia Lockdowns vs. Re-Openings
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Is Your Pension ‘Good as Gold’?
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FX Daily, May 29: Month-End Profit-Taking Weighs on Equities as the Euro Pops Above $1.11
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2021 Geneva Motor Show ‘very uncertain’ as organisers reject loan
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Swiss have mixed feelings about working from home, according to survey
SNB and CHF
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Re-openings in the U.S.
Update May 25, 2020: Reopenings in the U.S. Sight Deposits have risen by 6.4 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +6.4 bn. compared to last week. Market sentiment have become positive during the last 2 or 3 weeks. But for many conservative investors the Swiss franc still serves as safe-haven.
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Swiss central bank could take negative rates lower
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FINMA-Aufsichtsmitteilung 06/2020: Verlängerung oder Auslaufen von Erleichterungen infolge der COVID-19-Krise
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Why is the Pound to Euro Rate Falling? Will it Continue?
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Announcement regarding recall of banknotes from eighth series
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SNB COVID-19 refinancing facility expanded to include cantonal loan guarantees as well as joint and several loan guarantees for startups
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Economic cost of pandemic will be enormous: SNB chief
Gold and Bitcoin
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Is Your Pension ‘Good as Gold’?
With the current level of uncertainty in world markets we have received numerous requests for information on how self directed pension schemes (pre and post retirement) can hold gold and silver.It is accepted that if gold bullion is held via a gold certificates ( Perth Mint Certificates with GoldCore) or in Secure Storage in a variety of local or international locations with GoldCore, then it is not considered a ‘pride in possession’ article...
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An unexpected blow to the ECB
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When Is a Capital Gain Capital Consumption? Market Report, 25 May
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The Federal Counterfeiter
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Open Letter to Crispin Odey
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How crypto mining tried, but failed, to gain a Swiss toehold
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Clean gold: How Switzerland could set new supply chain standards
Austrian Economics
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Why Congressional “Oversight” of the Bureaucracy Is No Such Thing
I have long been fascinated by both public policy and the interesting crooks, crannies, and oddities found in the English language. Recently, I came across one such tidbit which connected both of those interests. Hugh Rawson, in "Janus Words—Two-faced English" on the Cambridge Dictionary blog, was discussing a number of English words that are sometimes called Janus words, after the Roman god depicted with two faces pointing in opposite...
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How We Might Respond to a Panedemic Were Society Not So Dominated by the State
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An unexpected blow to the ECB
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The Chicago School versus the Austrian School
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The Folly of “Ask What You Can Do for Your Country”
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Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events
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The Japanese Love of Keynesian Economics Might Finally Be Coming to an End
Swiss & European Macro
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Weekly View – One country, two systems at risk
Last week, German chancellor Merkel delivered a surprise about-face when she and French president Macron announced a proposal for a EUR 500bn recovery fund in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The unprecedented plan involves the distribution of grants, rather than loans, to member states in economic need.
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Swiss Trade Balance April 2020: foreign trade collapses
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Modern Monetary Theory makes inroads following coronavirus crisis
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House View, May 2020
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in April 2020: -4.0 percent YoY, -1.3 percent MoM
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7.9 billion hours worked in 2019
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in April 2020: -1.1 percent YoY, -0.4 percent MoM
Swiss Markets & News
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Swiss Covid-19 contact tracing app ready for privacy testing
Authorities have released the source code of the SwissCovid app to the public to allow experts and hackers to detect any risks to privacy before the official launch.
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Coronavirus: Switzerland plans to lift all restrictions on Schengen movement
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2021 Geneva Motor Show ‘very uncertain’ as organisers reject loan
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Swiss have mixed feelings about working from home, according to survey
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Swiss industry endured horror April during pandemic peak
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Coronavirus fuels Swiss bicycling surge
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Swisscom network experiencing problems
FX Trends
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FX Daily, May 29: Month-End Profit-Taking Weighs on Equities as the Euro Pops Above $1.11
Overview: The announcement that President Trump will hold a press conference on China later today rattled investors yesterday after they had earlier shrugged off the escalation of tension between the US and China to take the S&P 500 up to its highest level in nearly three months. The S&P 500 reversed and settled on its lows, and this carried over into today's activity, which also may be reflecting month-end adjustments.
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FX Daily, May 28: Escalating Tensions, Calm Markets
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FX Daily, May 27: China and Hong Kong Pressures are Having Limited Knock-on Effects
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FX Daily, May 26: Fear is Still on Holiday
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FX Daily, May 22: US-China Escalation Sinks Hong Kong and Hits Risk Appetites
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FX Daily, May 21: Markets Pull Back after Flirting with Breakouts
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FX Daily, May 20: Fed Funds Futures No Longer Imply Negative Rates
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Asia Lockdowns vs. Re-Openings
We apply the five-factor model used to analyse lockdowns and openings in developed markets and in Latin America to Asian Markets. It evaluates the restrictions imposed by different countries in the region, how they compare in terms of severity of lockdown, and where they are heading in the spectrum of reopening. The scale we use measures grade restrictions from 1 (open) to 4 (closed) across the following five factors: (a) schools/universities,...
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Getting A Sense of the Economy’s Current Hole and How the Government’s Measures To Fill It (Don’t) Add Up
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Hong Kong Turbulence Likely to Rise as US-China Relations Worsen
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An Economy That Cannot Allow Stocks to Decline Is Too Fragile To Survive
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Restricted Market Trading Comments
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Re-Opening the Economy Won’t Fix What’s Broken
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So Much Dollar Bull
Markets
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
Gold Sector Outperforms Broad Market. The gold sector is in an uptrend since September 2018. The initially rather labored move accelerated after a secondary low was established in May 2019 and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages were breached for the second time. Last week the two moving averages were once again overcome in the course of the post-crash rebound.
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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The Triumph of Madness
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Markets on Edge as New Week Begins
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The Golden Autumn Season – One of the Most Reliable Seasonal Patterns Begins
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America’s Road Map to $40 Trillion National Debt by 2028
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency
At the end of May, SNB president Jordan admitted that the EUR/CHF floor will not raised (here also cited by Bloomberg): “We cannot arbitrarily manipulate our currency. In an even worse crisis situation this would be disastrous and counterproductive. The floor must be legitimized. The current minimum exchange rate is realistic and has helped the Swiss economy.”
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Swiss Franc History: From Bretton Woods until the Swiss real estate crisis
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
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Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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History of SNB Interventions
Economic Theory
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Don’t Sell Economic Stability to Buy Economic Growth, Warns Tomáš Sedláček
Don’t sell economic stability to buy economic growth,” warned Tomáš Sedláček, chief macroeconomic strategist at CSOB Bank. Sedláček’s unconventional view is that our problem is not lack of growth but too much of it. See more at the CFA Institute Blog.
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7b) Major Schools of Economics
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Is China’s Growth Rate Healthy Now? Golden Rule of Capital
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Supply Side Economics
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Social and Geographic Theories and the Euro Crisis
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Mainstream Economics , The Medium Run
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Rational Expectations, Lucas Critique and NAIRU
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
