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What is New?
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Swiss salaries rise faster than inflation for the first time in 2 years
In 2019, Swiss salaries were on average of 0.9% higher than the year before. A nominal rise of +0.9% combined with low inflation of 0.4% delivered a real boost of 0.5% to someone earning an average salary in Switzerland.
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Novartis pays big fine for bribing doctors in the US
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Dancing Through the Geopolitical Minefield
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The Disastrous Legacy of Woodrow Wilson
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Fewer cows, more cars: Switzerland misses its emission targets
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Willkommen in einer Zukunft ohne Zins
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Swiss government forecasts 2021 deficit but no tax hikes
SNB and CHF
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Willkommen in einer Zukunft ohne Zins
Die SNB, die EZB und andere Zentralbanken erwarten auch langfristig keine Zinswende – und machen Nullzinsen zur Regel. Eine Übersicht der Prognosen. Diese Woche ist die Welt einer Zukunft ohne positive Zinssätze ein Stückchen näher gerückt. Schwedens Notenbank erneuerte ihren Zinspfad.
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: After SNB Meeting
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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2020
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Banks in Switzerland 2019
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Swiss National Bank forecasts deflation until 2022
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SNB Monetary Policy Assessment June 2020 and Videos
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SNB Preview
Gold and Bitcoin
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Gold Outperforms All Assets In 2020 YTD as Enters Seasonal Sweet Spot of July, August and September
Source: Finiz.com ◆ Gold is the top performing asset in the world in the first half of 2020, outperforming all stock markets including the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq and outperforming “safe haven” U.S. government bonds (see table above).Gold had an 18% gain in dollars in the first half of 2020 as risk assets, especially stock markets, fell sharply with the S&P down 4.5% and other stock markets down more than 10% (see table). Gold...
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“The illusions of Keynesianism create a morally corrupt society” – Part II
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World’s Ultra Wealthy Urged By Financial Advisers and Largest Banks to “Hold More Gold”
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Defaults Are Coming, Market Report, 22 June
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WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised
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The War On Cash – COVID Edition Part II
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Growing Dollar Demand, Silver Weirdness, Market Report, 15 June
Austrian Economics
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The Disastrous Legacy of Woodrow Wilson
[unable to retrieve full-text content]Princeton University has made it official: Woodrow Wilson’s name no longer will have any place on campus. The former president, or at least his memory, now is part of cancel culture, which is sweeping the nation. The Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs will replace the former president’s name with “Princeton,” and Wilson College now will be called First College.
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How Historians Changed the Meaning of “Liberalism”
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A Review of Stephanie Kelton’s The Deficit Myth
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The COVID Crisis Supercharged the War on Cash
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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
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As the Fed Pumps, the Stock Market Is Increasingly the Only Game in Town
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Why Central Banks Are a Threat to Our Savings
Swiss & European Macro
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Swiss Retail Sales, May 2020: 5.6 percent Nominal and 6.6 percent Real
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 5.6% in nominal terms in May 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 30.2% compared with the previous month.
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Weekly View – Alive and kicking
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Weekly View – Reality check
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Swiss Trade Balance May 2020: signs of recovery in foreign trade
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Supplementary accommodation: 0.7 percent increase in overnight stays in 2019, but decrease in demand for holiday homes
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2020: -4.5 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM
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Switzerland Unemployment in May 2020: rose to 3.4percent, seasonally adjusted rose to 3.4percent
Swiss Markets & News
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Swiss salaries rise faster than inflation for the first time in 2 years
In 2019, Swiss salaries were on average of 0.9% higher than the year before. A nominal rise of +0.9% combined with low inflation of 0.4% delivered a real boost of 0.5% to someone earning an average salary in Switzerland.
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Novartis pays big fine for bribing doctors in the US
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Fewer cows, more cars: Switzerland misses its emission targets
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Swiss government forecasts 2021 deficit but no tax hikes
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Coronavirus: Swiss government makes masks compulsory on public transport
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Swiss government extends coronavirus economic support
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SWISS slowly expands web of destinations from Zurich and Geneva
FX Trends
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FX Daily, July 2: Dollar Thumped Ahead of US Jobs Report
Market optimism over the possibility of a vaccine in early 2021 overshadowed the continued surge in US cases, where the 50k-a-day threshold of new cases has been breached. Following the NASDAQ close yesterday at record highs, global equities have advanced. Led by Hong Kong returning from yesterday's holiday, Asia Pacific equities rallied. Most local markets rose by more than 1%, though Tokyo and Taiwan lagged.
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July Monthly preview
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FX Daily, July 1: Second Verse Can’t be Worse than the First, Can it?
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FX Daily, June 30: When Primary is Secondary
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Cool Video: Forces Driving the Dollar and Downplaying Claims Sterling is an Emerging Market Currency
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FX Daily, June 29: USD is Offered in Quiet Start to the New Week
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FX Daily, June 26: Investors Wrestle with Notion that More Covid Cases mean More Stimulus
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Dancing Through the Geopolitical Minefield
The elites dancing through the minefield all have plans, but how many are prepared for the punch in the mouth? Open any newspaper from the past 100 years and you will soon find a newsworthy geopolitical hotspot or conflict.
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Dollar Soft Ahead of Jobs Report
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An Interesting Juncture in History
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What The PMIs Aren’t Really Saying, In China As Elsewhere
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Dollar Begins the Week Under Pressure Again
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Looking Ahead Through Japan
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead
Markets
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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver. Silver, often referred to as the “little brother” of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to share with you.
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The Decline of the Third World
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In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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The Triumph of Madness
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
In this chapter we describe how Volcker managed to defeat stagflation; he applied the monetarist models that had been applied successfully in Switzerland and Germany. Thanks to this effort, the dollar stopped its secular decline.
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
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Swiss Franc History: From Bretton Woods until the Swiss real estate crisis
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker’s defeat of inflation strengthens dollar, weakens Swiss franc
Economic Theory
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Is China’s Growth Rate Healthy Now? Golden Rule of Capital
After a slowing in Chinese growth this year, economists recently stated that a hard landing has been avoided and that the economy might have bottomed out. Marc Faber has changed his mind and considers buying Chinese stocks. Also Sprach Analyst provides the following data: Sequential growth rates since Q1 through Q3 were 1.5%, 2.0% and 2.2% respectively, or in annualised annual rate, 6.16%, 8.24%, and 9.09% respectively. Compared that with the...
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Mainstream Economics , The Medium Run
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Minsky and Kindleberger
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Supply Side Economics
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Social and Geographic Theories and the Euro Crisis
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
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Rational Expectations, Lucas Critique and NAIRU
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
