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What is New?
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Switzerland Peps Up SMEs
How Switzerland peps up SMEs: Banks are encouraged to extend credit (at 0%). The treasury guarantees the loans. The SNB refinances banks and accepts the guaranteed loans as collateral. Fast and efficient. Eventually, some of these loans will turn into grants of course. But that’s ok; the first-best response to a shock with asymmetric effects does involve transfers if markets are incomplete.
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Companies contemplate bleak coronavirus outlook
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Coronavirus: the fallibility of fatality rates
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No Further Comment Necessary At This Point
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Diversification versus Risk
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Corona-Krise – Eine machbare, vertretbare Lösung
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FX Daily, March 27: Nervousness Ahead of the Weekend
SNB and CHF
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Switzerland Peps Up SMEs
How Switzerland peps up SMEs: Banks are encouraged to extend credit (at 0%). The treasury guarantees the loans. The SNB refinances banks and accepts the guaranteed loans as collateral. Fast and efficient. Eventually, some of these loans will turn into grants of course. But that’s ok; the first-best response to a shock with asymmetric effects does involve transfers if markets are incomplete.
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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Dollar easing further from monthly tops, approaching 0.9600 figure vs. CHF
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FINMA unterstützt das Liquiditätspaket des Bundesrats und rollt weitere Massnahmen aus
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Corona-Krise: SNB stellt Banken zusätzliche Liquidität zur Verfügung
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SNB sets up refinancing facility and deactivates counter-cyclical buffer
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Handel – Schweiz mit grossem Leistungsbilanzüberschuss in Q4
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USD/CHF Price Analysis: US dollar eases from 2020 highs, stabilizes near 0.9800 figure
Gold and Bitcoin
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Corona-Krise – Eine machbare, vertretbare Lösung
Nachdem ich mich systematisch mit den verschiedenen Teilproblemen beschäftigt habe, bin ich nun überzeugt, eine machbare, vertretbare und rasche Lösung für das Corona-Problem gefunden zu haben.
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Global Supply of Gold and Silver Coins and Bars Evaporated In Safe Haven Rush
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Cash is Toilet Paper, Market Report 23 March
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COVID-19 – Auslegeordnung
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A crisis is a terrible thing to waste – Part I
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Aplanando la economía «por el virus»
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Don’t Panic – Prepare
Austrian Economics
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Diversification versus Risk
It is widely held that financial asset prices fully reflect all available and relevant information, and that adjustments to new information is virtually instantaneous. This way of thinking which is known as the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is closely linked with the modern portfolio theory (MPT), which postulates that market participants are at least as good at price forecasting as any model that a financial market scholar can come up...
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Central Bankers Are Running Out of Options
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The European Central Bank Is Being Stretched to Its Breaking Point in Italy
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Diseases Are Bad. Government-Forced Shutdowns Are Often Worse.
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In Spain You Can’t Use Your Own Back Yard. Police Make Sure of It.
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No, Technology Shocks Aren’t Behind Recurring Business Cycles
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A crisis is a terrible thing to waste – Part I
Swiss & European Macro
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Swiss Trade Balance February 2020: decline in foreign trade
After their strong increase the previous month, exports plunged 5.0% in February 2020 and thus continue on their negative trend that started in September 2019. Imports weakened by 1.4%. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.0 billion francs.
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Coronavirus: Federal Council declares ‘extraordinary situation’ and introduces more stringent measures
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Switzerland Unemployment in February 2020: Down to 2.5 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.3 percent
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in February 2020: -0.1 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM
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Swiss Retail Sales, January 2020: +0.6 percent Nominal and -0.1 percent Real
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New record for overnight stays for the Swiss hotel sector in 2019
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Employment Barometer in the Q4 2019: Uninterrupted employment growth in Switzerland for 10 years
Swiss Markets & News
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Companies contemplate bleak coronavirus outlook
Swiss companies are reporting slumping sales, cashflow problems and bottlenecks in the supply of crucial materials as the coronavirus crisis hits the economy. However, a survey also found that three out of four firms are satisfied with a CHF42 billion ($43 billion) state bailout package.
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Coronavirus: the fallibility of fatality rates
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Coronavirus: a test to see if you’ve had it is in the pipeline
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Global curbs on medical exports imperil poor nations
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Switzerland faces recession in 2020 due to pandemic, experts warn
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Coronavirus: infection rates in some Swiss cantons now higher than Lombardy
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Big reductions in Swiss public transport services
FX Trends
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FX Daily, March 27: Nervousness Ahead of the Weekend
Overview: Officials appear to have persuaded investors that they have put into place measures that will cushion the economic blow and ensure that the financial system continues to function. After seemingly goading officials into action, investors are choosing not to resist. Moreover, there is a recognition that many programs are scalable.
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FX Daily, March 26: Rumor Bought, Fact Sold
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SNB sets up refinancing facility and deactivates counter-cyclical buffer
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FX Daily, March 25: Relief, but…
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FX Daily, March 24: Relief Bounce On Tuesday, but Turn Around not Secure
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Conference Call Replay
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FX Daily, March 23: Greenback Demand Not Satisfied by Swap Lines
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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No Further Comment Necessary At This Point
I would write something snarky about bank reserves, but why bother at this point? It’s already been said. If Jay Powell doesn’t mention collateral, no one else does even though it’s the whole ballgame right now. Note: FRBNY’s updated figures shown below are for last week.
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ECB Approaching its Bazooka Moment
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The Pandemic Is Accelerating the Breakdown That Began a Decade Ago
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Three Short Run Factors Don’t Make A Long Run Difference
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Helicopter Money: Short-Term Relief Won’t Cure our Financial Disease
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Regime Change
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The System Will Not Return to “Normal,” and That’s Good; We Can Do Better
Markets
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
Post Hoc Fallacy. On Tuesday, at the precise moment Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell commenced delivering his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee, something unpleasant happened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) didn’t go up. Rather, it went down.
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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The Triumph of Madness
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Markets on Edge as New Week Begins
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The Golden Autumn Season – One of the Most Reliable Seasonal Patterns Begins
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America’s Road Map to $40 Trillion National Debt by 2028
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Tidbits Of Further Warnings: Houston, We (Still) Have A (Repo) Problem
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
In this post we will show the history of the Swiss Franc until 1971, a monetary era driven by the gold standard and the Bretton Woods period, both periods with nearly fixed exchange rates.
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History of SNB Interventions
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker’s defeat of inflation strengthens dollar, weakens Swiss franc
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
Economic Theory
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Traditional Monetarist vs. Market Monetarists
Along the double mandate of the federal reserve, monetarists can be divided into. - traditional monetarists that focus on a slow increase of money supply in order to avoid price inflation. - Market monetarists that want to target growth and income instead of inflation.
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Supply Side Economics
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Mainstream Economics, The Long Run
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Is China’s Growth Rate Healthy Now? Golden Rule of Capital
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7) Economic Theory
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Minsky and Kindleberger
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Hans Werner Sinn’s Piketty Critique: “r ≠ i > g”
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
