Is The Swiss National Bank A Fraud?

The price of shares in The Swiss National Bank is up 11 days in a row, soaring 150% in the last two months. That sounds like a 'tulip' bubble-like 'fraud'... The SNB is up over 120% in Q3 so far - more than double 'bubble' Bitcoin...

Swiss annual growth forecast takes a cut

Swiss economic growth estimates for the year have been revised down to under 1% by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). This would make it the slowest year since 2009. The stats released Thursday predict a growth rate of 0.9% for 2017. The figure has fallen from previous estimates of 1.4%, and would mark the worst-performing economic year since a 2.2% contraction in 2009.

FX Daily, September 22: Markets Limp into the Weekend

The cycle of sanctions, recriminations, and provocative actives continues as the Trump Administration leads a confrontation with North Korea. The US announced yesterday new round of sanctions on North Korea. Reuters reported that the PBOC has instructed its banks not to take on new North Korean clients and to begin unwinding existing relationships.

Swiss Mystery: Someone Keeps Flushing €500 Bank Notes Down The Toilet

While there are several comments one can make here, “dirty money”, “flush with cash” and “flushing money down the toilet” certainly coming to mind, perhaps the ECB was on to something when it warned that €500 “Bin Laden” bills (which it has since discontinued to print) tend to be used by criminals. The reason for … Continue reading »

Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed Likely To Create Next Recession

Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed Likely To Create Next Recession. Is the Fed about to kill the business cycle? 16 out of 19 rate-hike cycles in past 100 years ended in recession. Total global debt at all time high – see chart. Global debt is 327% of world GDP – ticking timebomb. Gold has beaten the market (S&P 500) so far this century. Safe haven demand to increase on debt and equity risk. Gold looks very cheap compared to overbought...

Abe and BOJ

BOJ is unlikely to change policy. A snap election suggests continuity of policy. US 10-year yield remains one of most important drivers of the exchange rate.

India: The Genie of Lawlessness is out of the Bottle

Recapitulation (Part XVI, the Last). Since the announcement of demonetization of Indian currency on 8th November 2016, I have written a large number of articles. The issue is not so much that the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is a tyrant and extremely simplistic in his thinking (which he is), or that demonetization and the new sales tax system were horribly ill-conceived (which they were). Time erases all tyrants from the map, and...

Six Banks Join UBS’s “Utility Coin” Blockchain Project

Here’s a piece of news that the remaining human members of Wall Street’s FX sales and trading desks probably don’t want to hear. According to the Financial Times, six of the world’s largest banks have decided to join a blockchain project called “utility coin” that will allow banks to settle trades in securities denominated in different currencies without a money transfer.

Is the Yen or Swiss Franc a Better Funding Currency?

Yen and Swiss franc are funding currencies. This goes a long way to explaining why they rally on heightened anxiety. The Swiss have lower rates than Japan and the franc is less volatile than the yen, but technicals argue for caution.

France: Le déficit chronique de la balance des paiements.

La libre-circulation des biens, des services, des revenus, des capitaux et des personnes , appelée les 4 L, est mesurée entre autres par la balance des paiements. Celle-ci décrit selon la Banque de France: « les échanges économiques entre la France et les autres pays. Elle apporte une grille de lecture de référence sur la situation de notre pays dans une économie mondialisée.

Negative Rates: The New Gold Rush… For Gold Vaults

Negative interest rates and the populist uprising that spurred the UK to vote for Brexit and Americans to elect Trump has helped reignite a rush into physical safe haven assets like gold and silver, which however has led to a shortage of safe venues where to store the precious metals (unlike bitcoin, gold actually has a physical dimension).

The Path to Inflation: “Helicopter Money”

Yet conventional economists are virtually unanimous that deflation is the danger and inflation is a "good thing" we need to spur so servicing existing debt becomes easier for debtors. Due to the deflationary pressures of technology and stagnant wages for the bottom 90%, the consensus sees low inflation as far as the eye can see.

Time to Hedge State Reserve Funds with Gold?

Financially prudent individuals set aside surplus funds to protect against unforeseen expenditures. This way, when faced with loss of income, house repairs, car trouble, or anything else, they will have a buffer against unanticipated downturns. In the same vein, almost every state in the United States has established a “savings account” for government operations.

Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?

Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF. Evans-Pritchard spends most of his time talking about the bearish yen implications of the increased BOJ purchases, and mentions GPIF only at the very end of the his essay, and even then to...

Zuerst verdirbt die SNB unsere Jugend mit Irrlehren, dann lässt sie sie fallen

„Und sie dreht sich doch“ murmelte Galileo Galilei, nachdem ihn die Inquisitoren gezwungen hatten, dem kopernikanischen Weltbild abzuschwören. Dieses widerlegte die damalige heliozentrische Astronomie: Die Sonne drehe sich nicht um die Erde, sondern umgekehrt: Die Erde dreht sich um die Sonne. Eine kopernikanische Wende erleben wir zurzeit in der Geldtheorie: Die Volkswirtschaften drehen sich nicht um die Zentralbanken. Umgekehrt: Die...

Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal

Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.

Swiss Franc History, 1970s: Due to US Stagflation CHF Strengthens Massively

We shows the massive appreciation of Swiss franc and German mark in the 1970s, the reasons were: stagflation and the wage-price spiral.

El-Erian: The New Normal