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What is New?
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Swiss franc’s defensive features likely to come back into fashion
Despite heightened trade tensions, the Swiss franc has been relatively weak against the US dollar of late. The defensive features of the franc seem to be outweighed by an unsupportive interest rate differential. But the continuing threat of escalation in trade disputes and extreme short speculative positioning on the franc mean the latter has upside potential.
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Swiss Trade Balance June 2018: Fifth consecutive record of exports
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Bi-Weekly Economic Review
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Chinese Gold Market: Still in the Driving Seat
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Swiss bank settles US tax evasion probe
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FX Daily, July 19: Greenback Extends Gains
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Mid-Year Global Markets Update
SNB and Central Banks
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Swiss franc’s defensive features likely to come back into fashion
Despite heightened trade tensions, the Swiss franc has been relatively weak against the US dollar of late. The defensive features of the franc seem to be outweighed by an unsupportive interest rate differential. But the continuing threat of escalation in trade disputes and extreme short speculative positioning on the franc mean the latter has upside potential.
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Federal Council appoints Martin Schlegel as new Alternate Member of the SNB Governing Board
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Ueli Maurer hat recht: Der Erste, der einsieht, dass die SNB sich hoffnungslos verrannt hat
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Banks in Switzerland 2017, Results from the Swiss National Bank’s data collection
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Buying more time
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Swiss residential property risks growing in buy to let, according to Swiss National Bank
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Andréa M. Maechler: Introductory remarks, news conference
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Gold,Bitcoin,Austrian Economics
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Chinese Gold Market: Still in the Driving Seat
With the first half of 2018 now behind us, it’s an opportune time to look at whats been happening in the Chinese Gold Market. As a reminder, China is the largest gold producer in the world, the largest gold importer in the world, and China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange is the largest physical gold exchange in the world.
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Bitcoin — when mainstream?
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US Money Supply and Fed Credit – the Liquidity Drain Becomes Serious
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The Great Gold Upgrade, Report 15 July 2018
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Learn about Crypto’s true revolutionary potential
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The Gold Sector Remains at an Interesting Juncture
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Gold – Macroeconomic Fundamentals Improve
Swiss & European Macro
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Swiss Trade Balance June 2018: Fifth consecutive record of exports
The dynamism shown by exports since the beginning of 2017 continued in the second quarter of 2018. They are thus flying from record to record for the fifth quarter in a row. Imports, on the other hand, came to a standstill, at a high level, however, after posting strong growth in previous quarters. The trade balance closes on a surplus of 4.6 billion francs.
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What will the rest of the year bring?
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Europe chart of the week – UK GDP growth
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Research and Development: Federal Expenses and Staff in 2017
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Switzerland Unemployment in June 2018: Up to 2.4percent from 2.3percent, seasonally adjusted up to 2.6percent from 2.5percent
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Euro area: a slight rebound
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Credit Suisse: “Our Risk Appetite Index Is Near Panic”
Swiss Markets & News
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Swiss bank settles US tax evasion probe
The Zurich-based Neue Privat Bank (NPB) has paid $5 million (CHF5 million) fine to settle a criminal tax evasion investigation in the United States. NPB is one of a handful of so-called ‘category 1’ Swiss or Swiss-based bank branches that were still facing sanctions at the start of this year.
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Swiss claim success in international cybercrime case
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Uber plans softer Swiss expansion drive
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The large tax differences between Swiss cantons
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EU migration into Switzerland down significantly in 2017
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WIPO crowns Switzerland as world’s most innovative nation
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Work pension challenge targets age-related unfair dismissals
FX Trends
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FX Daily, July 19: Greenback Extends Gains
The US dollar is extending its recent gains against most of the world's currencies. We continue to see the most compelling case for the macro driver being the diverging policy mixes. There are also more immediate factors too. The surprisingly poor UK retail sales report, for example, managed to do what the Brexit chaos and softer than expected CPI fail to do.
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FX Daily, July 18: Greenback Extends Gains-For Now
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Great Graphic: Fed Raising Rates, but Yields Still Negative
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FX Daily, July 17: Dollar on Back Foot Ahead of Powell
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Great Graphic: Two-year Rate Differentials
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FX Daily, July 16: Dollar Softens a Little as Market Awaits Developments
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FX Weekly Preview: For the Millionth Time: Investors Exaggerate Trade Tensions at Their Own Peril
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Bi-Weekly Economic Review
This will be a fairly quick update as I just posted a Mid-Year Review yesterday that covers a lot of the same ground. There were, as you’ll see below, some fairly positive reports since the last update but the markets are not responding to the better data. Markets seem to be more focused on the trade wars and the potential fallout. I would also note that at least some of the recent strength in the data is related to the tariffs.
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Mid-Year Global Markets Update
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Our Institutions Are Failing
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Bi-Weekly Economic Review – (VIDEO)
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Buybacks Get All The Macro Hate, But What About Dividends?
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Will AI “Change the World” Or Simply Boost Profits?
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China’s Seven Years Disinflation
Markets
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US Money Supply and Fed Credit – the Liquidity Drain Becomes Serious
Our good friend Michael Pollaro, who keeps a close eye on global “Austrian” money supply measures and their components, has recently provided us with a very interesting update concerning two particular drivers of money supply growth. But first, here is a chart of our latest update of the y/y growth rate of the US broad true money supply aggregate TMS-2 until the end of June 2018 with a 12-month moving average.
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The Gold Sector Remains at an Interesting Juncture
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Gold – Macroeconomic Fundamentals Improve
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“Stock Markets Look Ever More Like Ponzi Schemes”
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Sound Money Needed Now More Than Ever
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Brent’s Back In A Big Way, Still ‘Something’ Missing
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“Sell In May And Go Away” – A Reminder: In 9 Out Of 11 Countries It Makes Sense To Do So
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
After the Volcker moment or sometimes called "Volcker shock", commodity prices plunged, the gold price collapsed. Thanks to additional supply, e.g. from Northsea oil, a so-called oil glut appeared. After the increase of debt in the 1970s, some economies in Southern America collapsed. The major reason was Volcker's tight monetary policy with high interest rates and the dependency on US funds. Global economic growth remained lack-lustre during...
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History: From Bretton Woods until the Swiss real estate crisis
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Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker’s defeat of inflation strengthens dollar, weakens Swiss franc
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History of SNB Interventions
Economic Theory
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Hans Werner Sinn’s Piketty Critique: “r ≠ i > g”
Hans Werner Sinn has formulated his critique with Piketty. Sinn says that: r ≠ i > g, hence Interest rates i are usually higher than economic growth g, but r is not the same as i. Hence r can be higher or lower than g.
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Ageing and Immigration in the U.S. and Japan and the New Normal
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The Cost-Push Inflation Legend
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Monetarist and Austrian Critique against MMT
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New Arthurian Economics and Martin Wolf’s “Strip banks of power to create money”
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The trade deficit and the collapse of manufacturing, the causes of the U.S. secular stagnation?
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF. Evans-Pritchard spends most of his time talking about the bearish yen implications of the increased BOJ purchases, and mentions GPIF only at the very end of the his essay, and even then to...
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
