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What is New?
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FX Daily, July 07: Fade the Dollar Gains
The S&P 500 rallied 1.6% yesterday to extend the streak to a fifth consecutive session, and the longest of the year and completed the negation of a bearish technical pattern. However, the main feature today is a wave of profit-taking on risk assets. Most equity markets moved lower in the Asia Pacific region. Chinese markets were a notable exception.
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Motorway station supplier goes into liquidation
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New UBS report reveals that joint financial participation is the key to gender equality
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Cool Video: Dollar, Trade, and China on TDA Network
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Monthly Market Monitor – July 2020
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Gratuitously Impatient (For a) Rebound
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The Theory Of MMT Falls Flat When Faced With Reality (Part II)
SNB and CHF
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: After SNB Meeting
Update July 6, 2020: After SNB Meeting. Sight Deposits have risen by +4.0 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +4.0 bn. compared to last week.
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Willkommen in einer Zukunft ohne Zins
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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2020
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Banks in Switzerland 2019
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Swiss National Bank forecasts deflation until 2022
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SNB Monetary Policy Assessment June 2020 and Videos
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SNB Preview
Gold and Bitcoin
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Gold Will “Trend Toward $10,000 Per Ounce Or Higher” Over The Next Four Years
You’re likely aware of the price action in gold lately. Gold has rallied from $1,591 per ounce on April 1 to $1,782 per ounce as of today. That’s a 12% gain in less than three months.
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Gold Outperforms All Assets In 2020 YTD as Enters Seasonal Sweet Spot of July, August and September
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“The illusions of Keynesianism create a morally corrupt society” – Part II
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World’s Ultra Wealthy Urged By Financial Advisers and Largest Banks to “Hold More Gold”
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Defaults Are Coming, Market Report, 22 June
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WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised
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The War On Cash – COVID Edition Part II
Austrian Economics
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The Social Consequences of Zero Interest Rates
Anyone who has ever been to Japan knows: Japan is special. The country has many strange habits. The Japanese culture is simply different and many peculiarities are hardly understood in the West. But it's not only the old established traditions that are foreign to us Westerners.
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Will the Police Crack Down on Lockdown Violators the Second Time Around?
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The Disastrous Legacy of Woodrow Wilson
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How Historians Changed the Meaning of “Liberalism”
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A Review of Stephanie Kelton’s The Deficit Myth
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The COVID Crisis Supercharged the War on Cash
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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
Swiss & European Macro
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Swiss Retail Sales, May 2020: 5.6 percent Nominal and 6.6 percent Real
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 5.6% in nominal terms in May 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 30.2% compared with the previous month.
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Weekly View – Alive and kicking
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Weekly View – Reality check
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Swiss Trade Balance May 2020: signs of recovery in foreign trade
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Supplementary accommodation: 0.7 percent increase in overnight stays in 2019, but decrease in demand for holiday homes
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in May 2020: -4.5 percent YoY, -0.5 percent MoM
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Switzerland Unemployment in May 2020: rose to 3.4percent, seasonally adjusted rose to 3.4percent
Swiss Markets & News
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Motorway station supplier goes into liquidation
A company that supplies Swiss motorway service stations and convenience stores has gone into liquidation after failing to find new investors. Some 144 jobs at Lekkerland Switzerland are now at risk of disappearing by the end of the year.
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New UBS report reveals that joint financial participation is the key to gender equality
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Swiss sustainable finance: world leader or wishful thinking?
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New cars on Swiss roads failed to meet emissions targets
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Swiss retail sales up 30 percent in May after COVID-19 measures eased
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Swiss salaries rise faster than inflation for the first time in 2 years
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Novartis pays big fine for bribing doctors in the US
FX Trends
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FX Daily, July 07: Fade the Dollar Gains
The S&P 500 rallied 1.6% yesterday to extend the streak to a fifth consecutive session, and the longest of the year and completed the negation of a bearish technical pattern. However, the main feature today is a wave of profit-taking on risk assets. Most equity markets moved lower in the Asia Pacific region. Chinese markets were a notable exception.
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Cool Video: Dollar, Trade, and China on TDA Network
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FX Daily, July 6: New Record Number of Covid Cases Doesn’t Curtail Appetite for Risk
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FX Daily, July 2: Dollar Thumped Ahead of US Jobs Report
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July Monthly preview
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FX Daily, July 1: Second Verse Can’t be Worse than the First, Can it?
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FX Daily, June 30: When Primary is Secondary
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Monthly Market Monitor – July 2020
Most Long-Term Trends Have Not Changed. A lot has changed over the last 4 months since the COVID virus started to impact the global economy. Asia was infected first with China at ground zero. Their economy succumbed first with a large part of the country shut down to a degree that can only be accomplished in an authoritarian regime.
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Gratuitously Impatient (For a) Rebound
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What Makes You Think the Stock Market Will Even Exist in 2024?
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead
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Reality Beckons: Even Bigger Payroll Gains, Much Less Fuss Over Them
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Dancing Through the Geopolitical Minefield
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Dollar Soft Ahead of Jobs Report
Markets
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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver. Silver, often referred to as the “little brother” of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to share with you.
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The Decline of the Third World
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In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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The Triumph of Madness
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
A critical Swiss Franc History: Between 1996 and 2004 Switzerland and its main trading partner and FX proxy Germany saw slower growth compared to other European countries. We explain the reasons
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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Swiss Franc History, from 2004 to 2009: The undervalued franc
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History of SNB Interventions
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
Economic Theory
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
In this chapter we describe how Volcker managed to defeat stagflation; he applied the monetarist models that had been applied successfully in Switzerland and Germany. Thanks to this effort, the dollar stopped its secular decline.
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Social and Geographic Theories and the Euro Crisis
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7) Economic Theory
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Supply Side Economics
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7b) Major Schools of Economics
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Richard Koo´s misleading take on the great recession: The final chapter – a guest post by Mark Sadowski
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Minsky and Kindleberger
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
