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What is New?
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FX Daily, February 26: Dramatic Investor Adjustment Continues
Overview: The warning by the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention that Americans should prepare for an outbreak of Covid-19 sent the S&P 500 tumbling to an 11-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield to a record low near 1.30%. The volatility of the S&P (VIX) jumped to its highest level since 2018. The sell-off in global equities continues unabated.
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Should rail commuter data be monetised through advertising?
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USD/CHF registers four-day losing streak as coronavirus keeps risk-tone heavy
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Schaetze To That
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Seven Big-Picture Considerations for Covid-19
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Gold May Rise To $2,000/oz This Year Due To Strong Coin and Bar, ETF and Central Bank Demand
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The WTO Is Both Irrelevant and Unnecessary
SNB and CHF
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USD/CHF registers four-day losing streak as coronavirus keeps risk-tone heavy
USD/CHF holds onto losses amid fears of coronavirus outbreak. Soft coronavirus statistics from China fail to counter widespread disease data from the rest of the globe. China’s ability to meet phase-one deal terms seem to gain a little appreciation among traders. The US New Home Sales, Swiss ZEW Survey can offer intermediate moves.
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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bearish spinning top keeps sellers hopeful
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Wertpapierdepots klettern um fast eine Billion Franken
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions
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USD/CHF Price Analysis: 200-day EMA questions pullback from 0.9770/75 support confluence
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USD/CHF New York Price Analysis: Dollar eases from session highs, trades below 0.9830 vs. Swiss franc
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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bulls aim for 200-week SMA as MACD turns strongest in nine weeks
Gold and Bitcoin
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Gold May Rise To $2,000/oz This Year Due To Strong Coin and Bar, ETF and Central Bank Demand
IGTV interviewed Mark O’Byrne, Research Director at GoldCore about the outlook for gold and silver bullion. He is bullish on both precious metals in the medium and long term. The fundamentals are very strong with strong central bank demand and ETF gold holdings reaching an all time record high due to deepening political and economic risks.
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Crypto investigator still needs permission to view files
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Widening Bid-Ask Spreads, Gold and Silver Market Report 17 February
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Ex-cabinet members had knowledge of Crypto business dealings, say papers
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Gold Coins Worth £80,000 Found In Retiree’s Drawers In Cottage: “It Was Mind-Blowing. I Felt Like a Pirate in a Grotto”
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Former Swiss defence minister denies knowledge of Crypto-CIA links
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Investigation opened into Swiss encryption firm linked to CIA
Austrian Economics
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The WTO Is Both Irrelevant and Unnecessary
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is in a state of crisis. When it comes to trade negotiations among large states like the US, India, and China, the WTO has been shown to be an organization that is largely irrelevant.
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Tax Burdens, Per Capita Income, and Simpson’s Paradox
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Who wins and who loses because of negative interest rates?
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Nationalism as National Liberation: Lessons from the End of the Cold War
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Gold is the 7th sense of financial markets
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Is Free Market Economics Too “Ideological”?
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Why It’s so Hard to Escape America’s “Anti-Poverty” Programs
Swiss & European Macro
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Employment Barometer in the Q4 2019: Uninterrupted employment growth in Switzerland for 10 years
25.02.2020 - In the 4th quarter 2019, the total employment (number of jobs) in Switzerland rose by 1.2% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.2% with previous quarter). Employment growth has thus been uninterrupted for a decade. In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 1.1%.
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Swiss Trade Balance Q4 2019: Secondary sector shows positive growth rates again
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Weekly View – Merkel under pressure
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2020: -1.0 percent YoY, unchanged MoM
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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 4rd quarter 2019: 0.9percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition falls to 3.9percent
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in January 2020: +0.2 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM
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Electric cars gain momentum: number of new registrations more than doubled in 2019
Swiss Markets & News
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Should rail commuter data be monetised through advertising?
Swiss Federal Railways is coming under fire for using the personal data of commuters for advertising purposes. The data commissioner and a watchdog group have sounded the alarm bell as the volume of data being harnessed grows.
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Unions say anti-EU initiative is bad for workers
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When It Comes to Raw Power, Few Have More of It Than Central Bankers
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Swiss Post stops accepting parcels and letters to China
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Swiss digital stock exchange offers partners ownership stake
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Ermotti’s UBS record: solid but not all plain sailing
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Credit Suisse MD Dies In Freak Accident After Slipping Through Chairlift And Being Suffocated By His Own Jacket
FX Trends
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FX Daily, February 26: Dramatic Investor Adjustment Continues
Overview: The warning by the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention that Americans should prepare for an outbreak of Covid-19 sent the S&P 500 tumbling to an 11-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield to a record low near 1.30%. The volatility of the S&P (VIX) jumped to its highest level since 2018. The sell-off in global equities continues unabated.
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FX Daily, February 25: Capital Markets Remain Fragile after Yesterday’s Bloodletting
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FX Daily, February 24: Stocks Slammed and Yields Drop as Virus Containment Fails
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FX Weekly Preview: Sources of Imbalance and the Pushback Against New Divergence
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FX Daily, February 21: Covid-19 Contagion Outside China Keeps Investors on the Defensive
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FX Daily, February 20: Covid-19 Hits Yen and Korean Won
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FX Daily, February 19: Investors’ Confidence Snaps Back
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Schaetze To That
When Mario Draghi sat down for his scheduled press conference on April 4, 2012, it was a key moment and he knew it. The ECB had finished up the second of its “massive” LTRO auctions only weeks before. Draghi was still relatively new to the job, having taken over for Jean-Claude Trichet the prior November amidst substantial turmoil.
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Seven Big-Picture Considerations for Covid-19
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Was It A Midpoint And Did We Already Pass Through It?
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When Will We Admit Covid-19 Is Unstoppable and Global Depression Is Inevitable?
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead
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Time Again For Triple Digit Dollar
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Covid-19: Global Retrenchment Will Obliterate Sales, Profits and Yes, Big Tech
Markets
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
Post Hoc Fallacy. On Tuesday, at the precise moment Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell commenced delivering his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee, something unpleasant happened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) didn’t go up. Rather, it went down.
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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The Triumph of Madness
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Markets on Edge as New Week Begins
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The Golden Autumn Season – One of the Most Reliable Seasonal Patterns Begins
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America’s Road Map to $40 Trillion National Debt by 2028
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Tidbits Of Further Warnings: Houston, We (Still) Have A (Repo) Problem
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
Accounts of the financial crisis leave out the story of the secretive deals between banks that kept the show on the road. How long can the system be propped up for? It is a decade since the first tremors of what would become the Great Financial Crisis began to convulse global markets. Across the world from China and South Korea, to Ukraine, Greece, Brexit Britain and Trump’s America it has shaken our economy, our society and latterly our...
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Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves
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Swiss Franc History, 1970s: Due to US Stagflation CHF Strengthens Massively
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History of SNB Interventions
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker’s defeat of inflation strengthens dollar, weakens Swiss franc
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History, from 2004 to 2009: The undervalued franc
Economic Theory
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Hans Werner Sinn’s Piketty Critique: “r ≠ i > g”
Hans Werner Sinn has formulated his critique with Piketty. Sinn says that: r ≠ i > g, hence Interest rates i are usually higher than economic growth g, but r is not the same as i. Hence r can be higher or lower than g.
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Mainstream Economics, The Long Run
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Traditional Monetarist vs. Market Monetarists
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Ricardo’s Comparative Cost Theory, Heckscher-Ohlin Model and the Product Lifecycle Theory
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Irvin Fisher’s Deflationary Spiral
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Richard Koo´s misleading take on the great recession: The final chapter – a guest post by Mark Sadowski
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Don’t Sell Economic Stability to Buy Economic Growth, Warns Tomáš Sedláček
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
