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What is New?
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FX Daily, August 06: Markets Consolidate
The Australian dollar powered to marginal news highs for the year as the move against the US dollar continued yesterday. The euro stopped a few hundredths of a cent below the high seen at the end of last week. However, neither sustained the upside momentum and have come back offered today.
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Purchasing Managers Indigestion
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Swiss Consumer sentiment makes a strong recovery but remains below average
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Switzerland’s dark business with Ukrainian coal
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Why Keynes Was Wrong about Consumer Spending
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FX Daily, August 5: Corrective Pressures in the FX Market Prove Short-Lived
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Record fall in overnight stays in first half of 2020
SNB and CHF
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Fed and ECB Money Printing Helps SNB Back into Positive Territory
Fed and ECB money printing and massive fiscal stimulus help the SNB to come back into positive territory for the year. The renewed asset price inflation compensate for losses on the US dollar.
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB buying euros at high prices
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“Unabhängigkeit der Nationalbank (Independence of the SNB),” FuW, 2020
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“Monetäre Staatsfinanzierung mit Folgen (Monetary Financing of Government),” Die Volkswirtschaft, 2020
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Umsetzung FIDLEG/FINIG: FINMA bewilligt erste Aufsichtsorganisationen
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Willkommen in einer Zukunft ohne Zins
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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2020
Gold and Bitcoin
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Short Term Weakness Likely Prior To A “Massive Short Squeeze Propels” Gold and Silver “To Much Higher Levels” – GoldCore
Gold and silver are set for a 5% and 6% gain this week and a significant 11% and 30% gain in the month of July.
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A blueprint for a European superstate
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Gold Reaches $2,000/oz Prior to Two “Concerted Attacks” In Futures Market
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Gold futures end a stone’s throw away from a record
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Is the West repeating India’s mistakes?
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Silver Breaks Out!
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One of These Silver Days is Not Like the Other, 23 July
Austrian Economics
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Why Keynes Was Wrong about Consumer Spending
As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, most experts are of the view that it is the role of the government and central bank to minimize the damage inflicted by the virus—and the policy response to it—on the economy.
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Political Self-Determination and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
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The Government Wants Your Crypto Data. And Lots of It.
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A blueprint for a European superstate
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Silver “Scarcifies” – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
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The Government Wants Your Crypto Data. And Lots of It.
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New Unemployment Increased to 1.4 Million Last Week as Recovery Falters
Swiss & European Macro
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Swiss Consumer sentiment makes a strong recovery but remains below average
Consumer sentiment in Switzerland has largely recovered from its slump in April. Expectations regarding general economic development have improved, but those regarding the labour market remain very negative. Accordingly, respondents believe that now is not a good time to make major purchases.
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Record fall in overnight stays in first half of 2020
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Horizon 2020: long-term investing in a world marked by pandemic
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2020: -0.9 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM
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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2020: 0.4 percent Nominal and 1.1 percent Real
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Weekly view – The summer grind
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Weekly view – Fog warning
Swiss Markets & News
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Switzerland’s dark business with Ukrainian coal
Pro-Russian separatists are financing their war in Ukraine with coal deliveries to the West. Now the role of Swiss companies in Zug and Geneva is being investigated, according to a report in the SonntagsZeitung.
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Pandemic crashed demand for hotels and trains
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Murdoch becomes major shareholder in Swiss MCH group
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How Swiss staycationers are scouting out your next alpine getaway
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Temporary employee sector hit hard by Covid-19 crisis
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Swiss care homes and hospitals charged for mouldy masks
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Most returning to Switzerland from Covid-19 risk countries skipping quarantine
FX Trends
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FX Daily, August 06: Markets Consolidate
The Australian dollar powered to marginal news highs for the year as the move against the US dollar continued yesterday. The euro stopped a few hundredths of a cent below the high seen at the end of last week. However, neither sustained the upside momentum and have come back offered today.
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FX Daily, August 5: Corrective Pressures in the FX Market Prove Short-Lived
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FX Daily, August 4: Markets Looking for Fresh Directional Cues
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August Monthly
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FX Daily, August 3: Stronger EMU PMIs Fail to Recharge the Euro’s Upside Momentum
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FX Daily, July 30: Greenback’s Bounce is Likely Short-Lived
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FX Daily, July 29: Greenback Slips Ahead of the FOMC
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Purchasing Managers Indigestion
There’s already doubt given how the two major series supposedly measuring the same thing seemingly can’t agree. If the rebound was truly robust, it would show up unambiguously everywhere. But IHS Markit’s purchasing managers indices struggled to get back above 50 in July, barely getting there, suggesting the economy might be slowing or even stalling way too close to the bottom.
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5 Tax Strategies to Help you Hold on to Your Money in Retirement
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Accusing the Accused of Excusing the Mountain of Evidence
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead
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A Vaccine May Not Be the “Magical Cure” Everyone Anticipates
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Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top
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That’s Probably Why Only Half a “V”
Markets
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Game Over Spending
Coming and Going Like a Wildfire. Second quarter 2020 came and went like a California wildfire. The economic devastation caused by the government lock-downs was swift, the destruction immense, and the damage lasting. But, nonetheless, in Q2, the major U.S. stock market indices rallied at a record pace.
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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
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The Decline of the Third World
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In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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Personal Investment
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Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Back To Extremes: Q2-2020
As discussed in Is It Insanely Stupid To Chase Stocks, the market has gotten quite ahead of the fundamentals as money continues to chase performance. In the Q2-2020 review of Commitment Of Traders report (COT,) we can see how positioning has moved back to extremes.
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Unprecedented Recession Synchronization
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Should you buy or rent a house in Switzerland?
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Reading The Market’s Postmodern Mind
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Frugal Living in Switzerland Interview 5: The DoubleDutch Family
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Shedlock: Millennial Renters Abandon Their Home Buying Plans
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Passive Fingerprints Are All Over This Crazy Market
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
A critical Swiss Franc History: Between 1996 and 2004 Switzerland and its main trading partner and FX proxy Germany saw slower growth compared to other European countries. We explain the reasons
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History of SNB Interventions
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker’s defeat of inflation strengthens dollar, weakens Swiss franc
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
Economic Theory
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Hans Werner Sinn’s Piketty Critique: “r ≠ i > g”
Hans Werner Sinn has formulated his critique with Piketty. Sinn says that: r ≠ i > g, hence Interest rates i are usually higher than economic growth g, but r is not the same as i. Hence r can be higher or lower than g.
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Mainstream Economics, The Short Run
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
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Irvin Fisher’s Deflationary Spiral
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Don’t Sell Economic Stability to Buy Economic Growth, Warns Tomáš Sedláček
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Ricardo’s Comparative Cost Theory, Heckscher-Ohlin Model and the Product Lifecycle Theory
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Post Keynesians
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
