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What is New?
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB buying euros at high prices
Update August 3, 2020: SNB buying euros at high prices. Sight Deposits have risen by +1.1 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +1.1 bn. compared to last week.
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The Swiss National Bank reports a profit of CHF 0.8 billion for the first half of 2020
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead
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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2020: 0.4 percent Nominal and 1.1 percent Real
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How Swiss staycationers are scouting out your next alpine getaway
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A Vaccine May Not Be the “Magical Cure” Everyone Anticipates
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Short Term Weakness Likely Prior To A “Massive Short Squeeze Propels” Gold and Silver “To Much Higher Levels” – GoldCore
SNB and CHF
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB buying euros at high prices
Update August 3, 2020: SNB buying euros at high prices. Sight Deposits have risen by +1.1 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +1.1 bn. compared to last week.
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The Swiss National Bank reports a profit of CHF 0.8 billion for the first half of 2020
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“Unabhängigkeit der Nationalbank (Independence of the SNB),” FuW, 2020
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“Monetäre Staatsfinanzierung mit Folgen (Monetary Financing of Government),” Die Volkswirtschaft, 2020
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Umsetzung FIDLEG/FINIG: FINMA bewilligt erste Aufsichtsorganisationen
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Willkommen in einer Zukunft ohne Zins
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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2020
Gold and Bitcoin
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Short Term Weakness Likely Prior To A “Massive Short Squeeze Propels” Gold and Silver “To Much Higher Levels” – GoldCore
Gold and silver are set for a 5% and 6% gain this week and a significant 11% and 30% gain in the month of July.
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A blueprint for a European superstate
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Gold Reaches $2,000/oz Prior to Two “Concerted Attacks” In Futures Market
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Gold futures end a stone’s throw away from a record
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Is the West repeating India’s mistakes?
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Silver Breaks Out!
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One of These Silver Days is Not Like the Other, 23 July
Austrian Economics
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A blueprint for a European superstate
After intense negotiations, long days and nights of clashes and a distinctly sour note underlying the entire summit, European Union leaders finally agreed on an unprecedented 1.82 trillion-euro ($2.1 trillion) budget and COVID recovery package.
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Silver “Scarcifies” – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
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The Government Wants Your Crypto Data. And Lots of It.
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New Unemployment Increased to 1.4 Million Last Week as Recovery Falters
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American Police Forces Were Created to Fight Rioters. But Police Probably Made Things Worse.
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There Are No Winners in the US-China “Tech War”
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The Myth of the Failure of Capitalism
Swiss & European Macro
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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2020: 0.4 percent Nominal and 1.1 percent Real
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.4% in nominal terms in June 2020 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 3.6% compared with the previous month.
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Weekly view – The summer grind
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Weekly view – Fog warning
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Swiss Trade Balance Q2 2020: historic decline in exports and imports
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2020: -3.5 percent YoY, +0.5 percent MoM
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No lack of foreign tourism demand in 2019
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Swiss Retail Sales, May 2020: 5.6 percent Nominal and 6.6 percent Real
Swiss Markets & News
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How Swiss staycationers are scouting out your next alpine getaway
Let’s dispose of the bad news right from the start. If you’re reading this and don’t live in Europe, chances are you’re not going to make it to Switzerland this year. Now for the good news.
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Temporary employee sector hit hard by Covid-19 crisis
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Swiss care homes and hospitals charged for mouldy masks
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Most returning to Switzerland from Covid-19 risk countries skipping quarantine
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Swiss business raided over Fiat-Iveco ‘Dieselgate’ probe
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Referendum launched against SwissCovid app
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Switzerland adds 15 nations to its list of compulsory quarantine countries
FX Trends
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FX Daily, July 30: Greenback’s Bounce is Likely Short-Lived
A wave of profit-taking is seen through most of the capital markets today, with the exception of the bond market, where yields continue to trend lower. The US 10-year is now yielding 55 bp, a new low since early March, and the five-year yield set a new record low near 23 bp. European yields are 2-4 bp lower.
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FX Daily, July 29: Greenback Slips Ahead of the FOMC
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FX Daily, July 28: Dollar Bounces, Gold Slips, while Equities Hold Their Own
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FX Daily, July 27: Dollar Slide Continues, while Gold Soars
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Cool Video: Gold and the Dollar
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FX Daily, July 24: Strong PMIs Have Limited Impact as Profit-Taking Hits Equities
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FX Daily, July 23: Powerful Momentum is Still Evident in the Foreign Exchange Market
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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EM Preview for the Week Ahead
EM currencies took advantage of broad dollar weakness against the majors last week, with most gaining against the greenback. Yet the week ended on a bit of a risk-off note as concerns intensified about the resurgent virus and the impact on the still-weak global economy.
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A Vaccine May Not Be the “Magical Cure” Everyone Anticipates
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Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top
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That’s Probably Why Only Half a “V”
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Dollar Weak Ahead of Likely Dovish Hold from the Fed
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The Nation Is Falling Into the Abyss Between Wall Street and Main Street
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Dollar Stabilizes but Further Losses Likely
Markets
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Game Over Spending
Coming and Going Like a Wildfire. Second quarter 2020 came and went like a California wildfire. The economic devastation caused by the government lock-downs was swift, the destruction immense, and the damage lasting. But, nonetheless, in Q2, the major U.S. stock market indices rallied at a record pace.
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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
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The Decline of the Third World
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In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
A critical Swiss franc history: This chapter describes the most controversial episode in the Swiss monetary history: How the Swiss National Bank helped to wreck the Swiss real estate market in the 1990s.
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency
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Swiss Franc History, 1970s: Due to US Stagflation CHF Strengthens Massively
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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
Economic Theory
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Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP
Heterodox economic theories focus on the human desires to spend, to save, to obtain credit in order to anticipate spending and future earnings, to increase or to reduce debt or even to deplete existing savings, on human behaviour. Those theories neither think that humans are rational nor that markets are efficient.
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Mainstream Economics , The Medium Run
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Richard Koo´s misleading take on the great recession: The final chapter – a guest post by Mark Sadowski
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Mainstream Economics, The Short Run
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The Cost-Push Inflation Legend
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Hans Werner Sinn’s Piketty Critique: “r ≠ i > g”
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Post Keynesians
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
