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What is New?
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Re-openings in the U.S.
Update June 02, 2020: Reopenings in the U.S. Sight Deposits have risen by 1.7 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +1.7 bn. compared to last week. Market sentiment have become positive during the last 2 or 3 weeks. But for many conservative investors the Swiss franc still serves as safe-haven.
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“Wenn die Notenbank den Staat finanziert (When the Central Bank Finances the State),” FAS, 2020
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June Monthly
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We’re Living the Founding Fathers’ Nightmare: America Is Corrupt to the Core
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There’s No End in Sight to the Zombie Economy
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Michael Flynn, Lori Loughlin, and the Permanent Culture of Prosecutorial Abuse
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FX Daily, June 1: US Dollar Losses are Extended, but Momentum Stalls in the European Morning
SNB and CHF
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Re-openings in the U.S.
Update June 02, 2020: Reopenings in the U.S. Sight Deposits have risen by 1.7 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +1.7 bn. compared to last week. Market sentiment have become positive during the last 2 or 3 weeks. But for many conservative investors the Swiss franc still serves as safe-haven.
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“Wenn die Notenbank den Staat finanziert (When the Central Bank Finances the State),” FAS, 2020
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Swiss central bank could take negative rates lower
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FINMA-Aufsichtsmitteilung 06/2020: Verlängerung oder Auslaufen von Erleichterungen infolge der COVID-19-Krise
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Why is the Pound to Euro Rate Falling? Will it Continue?
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Announcement regarding recall of banknotes from eighth series
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SNB COVID-19 refinancing facility expanded to include cantonal loan guarantees as well as joint and several loan guarantees for startups
Gold and Bitcoin
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Pandemic, Economic Shutdowns, Debt Crisis and Gold At $5,000/oz
◆ GoldCore are delighted to publish the 14th edition of the annual “In Gold We Trust” report, “The Dawning of a Golden Decade” by by our friends Ronald-Peter Stoeferle & Mark J. Valek of Incrementum AG.Gold prices should rise to over $5,000/oz and may rise as high as $9,000/oz in the coming decade and by 2030, according to the respected report. Gold is “on everyone’s lips again” and “we are now in a new phase of the bull market”. The...
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Is Your Pension ‘Good as Gold’?
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An unexpected blow to the ECB
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When Is a Capital Gain Capital Consumption? Market Report, 25 May
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The Federal Counterfeiter
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Open Letter to Crispin Odey
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How crypto mining tried, but failed, to gain a Swiss toehold
Austrian Economics
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There’s No End in Sight to the Zombie Economy
The United States was waiting for the zombie apocalypse. The country was given a coronapocalypse instead. But could the two events merge and provide the nation with a dangerous economic trend? Corporate America’s worst-kept secret had been the swelling number of zombies kept on life support and hidden away during the boom phase of the business cycle.
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Michael Flynn, Lori Loughlin, and the Permanent Culture of Prosecutorial Abuse
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Two Analogies for the Economy That the Media Keeps Getting Wrong
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Defining “Inflation” Correctly
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Why Congressional “Oversight” of the Bureaucracy Is No Such Thing
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How We Might Respond to a Panedemic Were Society Not So Dominated by the State
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An unexpected blow to the ECB
Swiss & European Macro
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Weekly View – One country, two systems at risk
Last week, German chancellor Merkel delivered a surprise about-face when she and French president Macron announced a proposal for a EUR 500bn recovery fund in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The unprecedented plan involves the distribution of grants, rather than loans, to member states in economic need.
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Swiss Trade Balance April 2020: foreign trade collapses
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Modern Monetary Theory makes inroads following coronavirus crisis
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House View, May 2020
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in April 2020: -4.0 percent YoY, -1.3 percent MoM
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7.9 billion hours worked in 2019
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in April 2020: -1.1 percent YoY, -0.4 percent MoM
Swiss Markets & News
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Coronavirus: number of tests stagnates in Switzerland
The number of daily new cases has remained low in Switzerland throughout May. The highest number of new cases over this period was recorded on 1 May (119). The latest daily number, published on 29 May, was 31 new daily cases. Since the beginning of May the number has been as low as 10.
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Credit Suisse grants CHF2.8 billion in corona credit
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Coronavirus: new infections in Switzerland remain low
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Saint-Gobain to drop its shareholding in Swiss chemical maker Sika
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Swiss Covid-19 contact tracing app ready for privacy testing
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Coronavirus: Switzerland plans to lift all restrictions on Schengen movement
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2021 Geneva Motor Show ‘very uncertain’ as organisers reject loan
FX Trends
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June Monthly
The investment climate in June will be shaped by forces that emerged in May. Many countries began relaxing lockdowns and various activity-based alternative data, like traffic pattern, Open Table Reservations showed improvement on the margins. Sentiment surveys, while mostly still depressed, were better than April readings. The long slog back has begun.
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FX Daily, June 1: US Dollar Losses are Extended, but Momentum Stalls in the European Morning
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FX Daily, May 29: Month-End Profit-Taking Weighs on Equities as the Euro Pops Above $1.11
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FX Daily, May 28: Escalating Tensions, Calm Markets
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FX Daily, May 27: China and Hong Kong Pressures are Having Limited Knock-on Effects
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FX Daily, May 26: Fear is Still on Holiday
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FX Daily, May 22: US-China Escalation Sinks Hong Kong and Hits Risk Appetites
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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We’re Living the Founding Fathers’ Nightmare: America Is Corrupt to the Core
Our ruling elites, devoid of leadership, are little more than the scum of self-interested, greedy grifters who rose to the top of America's foul-smelling stew of corruption. The Founding Fathers were wary of institutional threats to liberty and the citizenry's sovereignty, which included centralized concentrations of power (monarchy, central banks, federal agencies, etc.) and the tyranny of corruption unleashed by small-minded,...
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Personal Income and Spending: The Other Side
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This Is How Systems Collapse
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Dollar Firm as US-China Tensions Continue to Rise
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Asia Lockdowns vs. Re-Openings
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Getting A Sense of the Economy’s Current Hole and How the Government’s Measures To Fill It (Don’t) Add Up
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Hong Kong Turbulence Likely to Rise as US-China Relations Worsen
Markets
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
Gold Sector Outperforms Broad Market. The gold sector is in an uptrend since September 2018. The initially rather labored move accelerated after a secondary low was established in May 2019 and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages were breached for the second time. Last week the two moving averages were once again overcome in the course of the post-crash rebound.
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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A Pharmaceutical Stock That Is Often Particularly Strong At This Time Of The Year
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The Triumph of Madness
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Markets on Edge as New Week Begins
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The Golden Autumn Season – One of the Most Reliable Seasonal Patterns Begins
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America’s Road Map to $40 Trillion National Debt by 2028
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
We establish a long-term view and history of the Swiss franc. We compare the franc with gold.
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Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
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Swiss Franc History: From Bretton Woods until the Swiss real estate crisis
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
Economic Theory
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Hans Werner Sinn’s Piketty Critique: “r ≠ i > g”
Hans Werner Sinn has formulated his critique with Piketty. Sinn says that: r ≠ i > g, hence Interest rates i are usually higher than economic growth g, but r is not the same as i. Hence r can be higher or lower than g.
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Rational Expectations, Lucas Critique and NAIRU
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Mainstream Economics, The Long Run
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Traditional Monetarist vs. Market Monetarists
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Supply Side Economics
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Social and Geographic Theories and the Euro Crisis
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Heterodox Economic Theories and GDP
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
