Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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You Want to Fix the Economy? Then First Fix Healthcare
We don't just deserve an affordable, sustainable healthcare system--we're doomed to bankruptcy without one. What is blindingly obvious to employers but apparently invisible to the average zero-business-experience mainstream pundit is this: if you want to fix the economy, you must first fix healthcare.
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Are The ‘Invisible Americans’ the Key Players in This Election?
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Trump, Trade and Taxes
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed
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What If We’re in a Depression But Don’t Know It?
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Julius Baer CEO says Asia revenue may excede Europe’s in 5 years
Debt, Paper Money and the Deep State
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Donald’s Electoral Struggle
Wicked and Terrible After touting her pro-labor union record, the Wicked Witch of Chappaqua rhetorically asked, “why am I not 50 points ahead?” Her chief rival bluntly responded: “because you’re terrible.”* No truer words have been uttered by any of the candidates about one of their opponents since the start of this extraordinary presidential campaign!
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A Different Candidate?
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Japan’s Planners Ratchet up Monetary Experimentation
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Why the Deep State Is Dumping Hillary
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Great Causes, a Sea of Debt and the 2017 Recession
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Don’t Bet on Deflation Lasting Forever
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Weekend Reading: Another Fed Stick Save, An Even Bigger Bubble
Swiss Macro
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Switzerland, UBS Consumption Indicator
The UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 1.53 points in August from 1.45. This development was fueled by resurging tourism and above-average car sales for the month. However, the situation on the labor market casts a shadow on this rise.
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Swiss Exports + 7.0 percent YoY, Imports +8.4 percent. Trade Surplus +3 bn CHF, Exporters Increase Prices
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, August 2016: -0.3 percent MoM, -0.4 percent YoY
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Swiss Real Estate: Empty dwellings back to 2001 levels
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Swiss GDP +0.6 percent QoQ, +2.0 percent YoY
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Swiss Consumer Price Index -0.1 percent YoY, Food Inflation 1.3 percent
Swiss Markets
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Switzerland stays most competitive nation as WEF warns on trade
The World Economic Forum named Switzerland the most competitive nation for an eighth straight year as it warned less open trade was threatening economic growth globally. Switzerland was ahead of Singapore and the U.S. in the annual rankings of 138 countries, with Netherlands overtaking Germany to take the fourth spot.
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Juncker eyes Swiss-specific EU immigration deal despite Brexit
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European mobile roaming charges to be axed. Pity the Swiss (who just have a Swiss phone)
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World markets rally as cheap money policy continues
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Swiss still the world’s wealthiest, says report
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Swiss economy slowly gains momentum but risks remain
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Swiss watch exports fall for fourteenth straight month
Gold & Switzerland
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The Undemocratic Nature of TTIP
Mounting Resistance Thousands of people recently demonstrated in Brussels against free trade deals negotiated by the EU. This happened just days before a meeting of EU trade ministers in Bratislava last Friday, which was considered the last push to salvage the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and the United States.
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U.S. Imports Record Amount Of Gold From Switzerland In July
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Best Countries To Store Gold: How Did America, A Serial Defaulter, Make The Cut?
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Crimea: Digging For The Truth
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Loose Monetary Policy and Social Inequality
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Spectacular Chinese Gold Demand Fully Denied By GFMS And Mainstream Media
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UK Imported Net 152 Tonnes of Gold in June, 68 from Switzerland
Monetary Metals & Gold Price
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The Fed is Good for Gold
Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.
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Silver Rocket and Gold Moribund
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Silver Returns Earthward
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Monetary Metals – The Federal Reserve Report
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Gold Sector Correction – What Happens Next?
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Gold Withdrawals From The NY Fed Accelerate, Hit 388 Tons Since 2014
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Gold and Silver Fundamentals Improve
Marc Meyer
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Negativzinsen: Unsere Schweiz als Versuchskaninchen
In der gestrigen Ausgabe der NZZ am Sonntag wird Nobelpreisträger Paul Krugman zitiert, wie er den Mindestkurs der SNB und deren Negativzinsen lobt. Die Negativzinsen seien ein „wertvolles Experiment“ meint er und „bedankt“ sich dafür sogar bei der SNB. „Die Schweiz eruiert neues Territorium. Aus akademischer Sicht liebe ich das.“
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Wir wollen nicht in die EU. Stoppt diese SNB!
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Die SNB und der Brexit – wie das Kaninchen vor der Schlange
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Central Bank Independence in Switzerland: A Farce
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Jordan’s “Does the SNB need equity?”, an assault on the Swiss constitution?
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The Last Free Lunch for Holders of SNB’s High-Risk Share?
George Dorgan on SNB
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Weekly SNB Intervention Update: Sight Deposits and Speculative Position
FX: As usual the SNB monetary assessment was less dovish than traders expected. The EUR/CHF fell to 1.0930 again after touching 1.10. Sight Deposits: + 0.9 bn. per week. The SNB intervened at levels that are too high. Speculative Position: The net long CHF position remained stable against USD. But many traders are closing their long EUR positions, against USD and potentially CHF.
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SNB Balance Sheet Now Over 100% GDP
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Swiss Franc Trade-Weighted Index, Performance Far Worse than Dollar Index
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SNB intervenes for 6.3 billion francs in one week, total 10bn Brexit intervention
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Purchasing Power Parity, REER: Swiss Franc Overvalued?
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SNB Increased Equities Share to 20 percent, A High Risk Game for a Conservative Investor
Negative Rates and the Ban of Cash
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Negativzinsen: Unsere Schweiz als Versuchskaninchen
In der gestrigen Ausgabe der NZZ am Sonntag wird Nobelpreisträger Paul Krugman zitiert, wie er den Mindestkurs der SNB und deren Negativzinsen lobt. Die Negativzinsen seien ein „wertvolles Experiment“ meint er und „bedankt“ sich dafür sogar bei der SNB. „Die Schweiz eruiert neues Territorium. Aus akademischer Sicht liebe ich das.“
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Why should you buy government bonds with Negative Yields?
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The ZIRP/NIRP Gods and their PhD Priesthood Have Failed
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Cash Bans and the Next Crisis
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Rogoff Warns “Cash Is Not Forever, It’s A Curse”
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Negative Yields By Rating, Sector, Country
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Case For -2 percent Rates, Banning Cash? Jim Grant Blasts Lunatic Proposals
Global News on Switzerland
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Un-Becoming American – One Man’s Painful Journey To Renouncing Citizenship
In April 2012, I returned to Switzerland – my country of birth – to commence a new phase of my adult life. Naturally, one of the first steps to undertake when establishing oneself in a new country is to open a bank account. I went down to the local Raiffeisen bank branch in the village of Aesch, Luzern, where my relatives and ancestors had lived and worked as farmers for over 10 generations.
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Europe Debates The Burkini: “We Will Colonize You With Your Democratic Laws”
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Gold Withdrawals From The NY Fed Accelerate, Hit 388 Tons Since 2014
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2 Men, 3 Women 6-Year-Old Kid Burned, Stabbed By 27-Year-Old Attacker On Swiss Train
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Massive Majority Of Europeans Disapprove Of EU Handling Of Refugee Crisis
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Brexit: BoE Governor Not Optimistic
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If the UK Economy Tanks, Don’t Blame Brexit
SNB and Central banks
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Negativzinsen: Unsere Schweiz als Versuchskaninchen
In der gestrigen Ausgabe der NZZ am Sonntag wird Nobelpreisträger Paul Krugman zitiert, wie er den Mindestkurs der SNB und deren Negativzinsen lobt. Die Negativzinsen seien ein „wertvolles Experiment“ meint er und „bedankt“ sich dafür sogar bei der SNB. „Die Schweiz eruiert neues Territorium. Aus akademischer Sicht liebe ich das.“
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Weekly SNB Intervention Update: Sight Deposits and Speculative Position
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Swiss balance of payments and international investment position: Q2 2016
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SNB Monetary policy assessment September 2016 and Comments
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Seven years of inaction on SNB rates day won’t end this week
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Strong Swiss growth lessens chance SNB will act
CHF FX and Bonds
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Swiss trains the most expensive in Europe
A study by GoEuro, compares the cost of travelling 100km by train. Switzerland led the ranking with the most costly train trips in Europe. Travelling 100km in Switzerland cost CHF 52.
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Cash in a box catches on as Swiss negative rates bite
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Why Switzerland’s franc is still strong in four charts
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Switzerland has world’s priciest Big Macs. So eat Swiss chocolate instead.
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Greenspan explains negative Swiss Yields
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The relationship between CHF and gold
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CHF Price Movements: Correlations between CHF and the German Economy
Helicopter Money
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Finland Unleashes Helicopter Money In “Greatest Societal Transformation Of Our Time”
Finland is about to launch an experiment in which a randomly selected group of 2,000–3,000 citizens already on unemployment benefits will begin to receive a monthly basic income of 560 euros (approx. $600). That basic income will replace their existing benefits. The amount is the same as the current guaranteed minimum level of Finnish social security support.
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The Helicopter Mortgage
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Richard Koo: If Helicopter Money Succeeds, It Will Lead To 1,500 percent Inflation
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The Central Planning Virus Mutates
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“It’s Prohibited By Law” – A Problem Emerges For Japan’s “Helicopter Money” Plans
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Stockman Rages: Ben Bernanke Is “The Most Dangerous Man Walking This Planet”
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The EU Begins to Splinter, a new Tsunami for Kuroda
The Gold Standard
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End of Bretton Woods: A Date Which Will Live in Infamy
Franklin Delano Roosevelt called the Japanese “surprise” attack on the U.S. occupied territory of Hawaii and its naval base Pearl Harbor, “A Date Which Will Live in Infamy.” Similar words should be used for President Nixon’s draconian decision 45 years ago this month that removed America from the last vestiges of the gold standard.
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Don’t Expect a Return to a Gold Standard Any Time Soon
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Arizona Considers Issuing a Gold Bond
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Another Serious Real Interest Rate Fallacy
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Real vs. Nominal Interest Rates
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Why a “Dollar” Should Only Be a Name for a Unit of Gold
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Alan “Bubbles” Greenspan Returns to Gold
Smart Alpha: Grail Securities
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Free portfolio performance 10 Jun 16
Up to Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose to a 10-month high of 2119.12 points, less than 1% below its all-time high of 2130.82 of 12 May last year. But stocks pulled back on Thursday and more decisively on Friday, as bond yields around the world reached or neared record lows amid looming gloomy political and economic headwinds.
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Will the U.S. Stock Market give birth to its own Black Swan?
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Stunning results achieved by Grail’s Free Portfolio in just two Months!
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The Free Portfolio and the Age of the Alpha Stock
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Nicolas Darvas: Follow the Price Action and Set Stop-Losses
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How you see the Stock Market determines your Profit or Loss!
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The stock market’s siamese twin oiled Friday’s rally
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
A list of long-term sector balances and related provided by Nomura's research institute and its chief economist Richard Koo.
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
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Explaining Richard Koo to Paul Krugman, to Austrian Economists and the SNB
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Ageing and Immigration in the U.S. and Japan and the New Normal
George Dorgan: FX Theory
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(9) FX Theory: Wealth and Net International Investment Position
Availability of funds (wealth and the international investment position): One of the 5 key indicators for FX rates. Often currencies of countries with a a lot of funds appreciate when markets decline.
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(10.1.2) Net International Investment Position Switzerland and Italy
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(6.2) The Ultimate Carry Trade: U.S. Banks Buying Treasuries
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(2.6) CPI-based Real Effective Exchange Rate Since 1965: Yen Still Most Overvalued Currency
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(1.3.) Let’s improve the way we report FX rates
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(10.1.1) Net International Investment Position United Kingdom
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(5.2) FX Rates, the Balance of Payments Model and Central Bank Interventions
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
