FX Trends
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FX Daily, July 21: Dollar Licks Wounds as News Stream Doesn’t Improve
The euro has depreciated by 0.13 to 1.1043 CHF. ECB President Draghi did not argue forcefully enough at yesterday's press conference to dampen the enthusiasm for the euro. The initial dip was quickly bought and the euro chased above last year's high near $1.1615, and the gains have been extended to nearly $1.1680 today. The next target is the August 2015 near $1.1715 is near.
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FX Daily, July 20: ECB Game Day
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Oil Update
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FX Daily, July 19: Dollar Stabilizes on Hump Day, Awaits Thursday’s BOJ and ECB Meetings
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Sterling, McCafferty, and BOE Policy
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FX Daily, July 18: Dollar Dumped on Doubts on US Economic Agenda
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FX Daily, July 17: Markets Mark Time, Dollar Consolidates Losses
Swiss Markets & News
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Swiss government to take aim at high Swiss prices
Switzerland’s Federal Council wants to introduce new measures to lower prices in Switzerland to curb cross-border shopping, something that it says hurts Swiss businesses. Minister for Economic Affairs, Johann Schneider-Ammann, said in an interview with the newspaper Schweiz am Wochenende that he’s working on a package of measures to tackle high retail prices in Switzerland.
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Court sentence in multimillion fraud scheme
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Switzerland Hosts Meeting on Tax Transparency
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Number of vacant homes rises again in Vaud
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Where there’s smoke, there’s political fire
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UBS worried about departing baby-boomers
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Swiss abroad react angrily to pension cut comments
Monetary Metals & Gold Price
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Bank Of England Warns “Bigger Systemic Risk” Now Than 2008
Bank of England warn that “bigger systemic risk” now than in 2008. BOE, Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) concerns re financial system. Banks accused of “balance sheet trickery” -undermining spirit of post-08 rules. EU & UK corporate bond markets may be bigger source of instability than ’08. Credit card debt and car loan surge could cause another financial crisis. PRA warn banks returning to similar practices to those that sparked 08...
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“Financial Crisis” In 2017 Or By End Of 2018 – Prepare Now
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Stockholm Syndrome – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
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“Financial Crisis” Of Historic Proportions Is “Bearing Down On Us”
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India Gold Imports Surge To 5 Year High – 220 Tons In May Alone
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Putting the Latest Silver Crash Under a Lens
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“Silver’s Plunge Is Nearing Completion”
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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U.S. Industrial Production: Industrial Drag
Completing a busy day of US economic data, Industrial Production was, like retail sales and inflation data, highly disappointing. Prior months were revised slightly lower, leaving IP year-over-year up just 2% in June 2017 (estimates for May were initially 2.2%). Revisions included, the annual growth rate has been stuck around 2% now for three months in a row, suggesting like those other accounts a pause or even possible end to the...
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Retail Sales Conundrum
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US S&P 500 Index, Federal Funds Target, Manufacturing Payrolls, US Imports and US Banking Data: All Conundrums Matter
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Global Asset Allocation Update: Not Yet
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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Attention Shoppers
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead
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Wholesale: No Acceleration, No Liquidation
Austrian Economics
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Russell 2000: The Dangerous Season Begins Now
Readers are surely aware of the saying “sell in May and go away”. It is one of the best-known and oldest stock market truisms. And the saying is justified. In my article “Sell in May and Go Away – in 9 out of 11 Countries it Makes Sense to Do So” in the May 01 2017 issue of Seasonal Insights I examined the so-called Halloween effect in great detail.
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Adventures in Quantitative Tightening
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How Dumb Is the Fed?
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No “Trump Bump” for the Economy
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Tales from the FOMC Underground
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Nikki Haley – Warmonger Extraordinaire
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The Money Velocity Myth
Swiss Macro
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Swiss Trade Balance First half of 2017: Exports with record value
In the first half of 2017, both exports (+ 4.4%) and imports (+ 4.8%) were dynamic. While the former scored a record result, the latter scored a higher in eight years. In both directions of traffic, chemicals and pharmaceuticals contributed decisively to growth. The trade balance loops with a surplus of 19 billion francs.
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2017: -0.1 YoY, -0,1 MoM
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Switzerland Unemployment in June 2017: Remained unchanged at 3.2 percent seasonally adjusted
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in June 2017: Up +0.2 percent against 2016, -0.1 percent against last month
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Swiss Retail Sales, May: -0.3 percent Nominal and -0.3 percent Real
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Tourism balance of payments 2016: Negative in 2016
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KOF Economic Barometer June: Prospects Are Brightening again
SNB and Central Banks
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Weekly SNB Interventions and Speculative Positions: Hawkish ECB, less SNB interventions
Hawkish comments by Mario Draghi boosted the EUR against both USD and CHF. It also reduced the need for SNB interventions. The question is how long Draghi will remain hawkish, especially next winter, when headline inflation in the euro zone may fall under 1%.
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Weekly SNB Intervention Update: Sight Deposits and Speculative Position
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Worin die populäre Geldschöpfungskritik irrt – Teil 1
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Moderne Portfoliotheorie bringt dem Anleger mehr Schaden als Nutzen
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The Swiss National Bank Owns $80 Billion In US Stocks – Here’s The Catch
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Banks in Switzerland 2016
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Central Banks Buying Stocks Have Rigged US Stock Market Beyond Recovery
Gold & Switzerland
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Buy Gold Near $1,200 “As Insurance” – UBS Wealth
Yesterday North Korea sent the US a ‘package of gifts’ for Independence Day. Unsurprisingly the successfully tested and launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was not well received. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called the move a “new escalation of the threat” to the U.S. and its allies and that “global action is required to stop a global threat.”
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New Gold Pool at the BIS Switzerland: A Who’s Who of Central Bankers
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Gold’s Advantages Over Fiat Currency – An Interview with Claudio Grass
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New Gold Pool at the BIS Basle: Part 2 – Pool vs Gold for Oil
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New Gold Pool at the BIS Basle, Switzerland: Part 1
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German and Swiss Precious Metals Refiners join forces as Heraeus acquires Argor-Heraeus
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Switzerland’s Gold Exports To China Surge To 158 Tons In December
Europe and Euro Crisis
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Ecouter le silence des abstentionnistes! Liliane Held-Khawam
Les législatives françaises qui se sont tenues le 11 juin 2017 apportent la preuve que nous sommes bel et bien entrés dans une ère post-démocratique. Près de 52% ont refusé de se prêter au processus électoral. Pourtant ce silence crie des émotions et des opinions non relayés sur la place publique.
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Euro Saves Germany, Slaughters the PIGS, & Feeds the BLICS
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Economic Dissonance, Too
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European Commission Offers 5 Scenarios
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Greece and the Return of the Repressed
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Martin Armstrong: “EU in Disintegration Mode”
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Expropriation and Impoverishment: “Capitalist” Greece and “Socialist” Venezuela
Negative Rates and the Ban of Cash
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Negative Rates: The New Gold Rush… For Gold Vaults
Negative interest rates and the populist uprising that spurred the UK to vote for Brexit and Americans to elect Trump has helped reignite a rush into physical safe haven assets like gold and silver, which however has led to a shortage of safe venues where to store the precious metals (unlike bitcoin, gold actually has a physical dimension).
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Europe Proposes “Restrictions On Payments In Cash”
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Migros Bank could pass on negative interest rates
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Wie die SNB durch Kapitalsteuern die Schweizer Wirtschaft belastet
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Canadian Bank Starts Charging Negative 0.75percent Rate On Most Foreign Cash Balances
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Cashless Society – Is The War On Cash Set To Benefit Gold?
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NIRP Has Failed: European Savings Rate Hits 5 Year High
Helicopter Money
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The Path to Inflation: “Helicopter Money”
Yet conventional economists are virtually unanimous that deflation is the danger and inflation is a "good thing" we need to spur so servicing existing debt becomes easier for debtors. Due to the deflationary pressures of technology and stagnant wages for the bottom 90%, the consensus sees low inflation as far as the eye can see.
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The Point of War Is Not to Win
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Interview with Doug Casey
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Japan’s Planners Ratchet up Monetary Experimentation
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A Convocation of Interventionists – Part 1
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Finland Unleashes Helicopter Money In “Greatest Societal Transformation Of Our Time”
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‘Last Economist Standing’ John Taylor Urges “Less Weird Policy” At Jackson Hole
The Gold Standard
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Time to Hedge State Reserve Funds with Gold?
Financially prudent individuals set aside surplus funds to protect against unforeseen expenditures. This way, when faced with loss of income, house repairs, car trouble, or anything else, they will have a buffer against unanticipated downturns. In the same vein, almost every state in the United States has established a “savings account” for government operations.
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If It Didn’t Abandon The Gold Standard, U.S. Empire Would Have Collapsed…
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Sound Money and Your Personal Finances
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Pension Funds Need Gold before It’s Too Late
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How Trump Can Bring Outside-the-Box Thinking to Bear on the Fed
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We Should Take Our Cues From Markets – Not Politicians
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Introducing Yield Purchasing Power, the Video
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF. Evans-Pritchard spends most of his time talking about the bearish yen implications of the increased BOJ purchases, and mentions GPIF only at the very end of the his essay, and even then to...
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
Marc Meyer
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Wer trägt Risiko für SNB-Schuldenberg: Banken oder Volk? Darum gehts beim Staatsfonds.
Quengelware – wer kennt sie nicht? Ware, die an den Kassen der Einkaufszentren auf Augenhöhe unerzogener Kids aufgestellt ist, damit deren Quengeln Eltern zum Kaufen drängen. Ähnlich beim Schweizer Staatsfonds. Als Quengelpolitik könnte man nämlich die Begehrlichkeiten vieler Politiker bezeichnen, die lauthals deinen solchen Fonds oder sonst etwas Unnützes fordern, um die Aufmerksamkeit der Wählerinnen und Wähler zu erheischen.
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Wie entsteht Geld? Nicht so, wie Thomas Jordan uns weismachen will
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Gefühlskältester Event des Jahres: Die GV der grössten Zockerin aller Zeiten
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Unsere Exporteure sind die neuen Bauern. Statt deren Milch ist ihr Euro garantiert
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Schuld an der Steuerklatsche sind die honorigen Ökonomen
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Ist die SNB fachlich überfordert?
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
After the Volcker moment or sometimes called "Volcker shock", commodity prices plunged, the gold price collapsed. Thanks to additional supply, e.g. from Northsea oil, a so-called oil glut appeared. After the increase of debt in the 1970s, some economies in Southern America collapsed. The major reason was Volcker's tight monetary policy with high interest rates and the dependency on US funds. Global economic growth remained lack-lustre during...
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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
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Swiss Franc History: From Bretton Woods until the Swiss real estate crisis
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History of SNB Interventions
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
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Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency
Economic Theory
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Is China’s Growth Rate Healthy Now? Golden Rule of Capital
After a slowing in Chinese growth this year, economists recently stated that a hard landing has been avoided and that the economy might have bottomed out. Marc Faber has changed his mind and considers buying Chinese stocks. Also Sprach Analyst provides the following data: Sequential growth rates since Q1 through Q3 were 1.5%, 2.0% and 2.2% respectively, or in annualised annual rate, 6.16%, 8.24%, and 9.09% respectively. Compared that with the...
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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The Wealth Effect: Rising House Prices Sustain Spending
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Mainstream Economics , The Medium Run
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Irvin Fisher’s Deflationary Spiral
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Minsky and Kindleberger
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7a) Economic Theories Overview
