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What is New?
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Free trade deals save Switzerland billions, study finds
Swiss consumers and importers saved CHF2.5 billion ($2.7 billion) in 2018 thanks to lower customs duties as part of free trade agreements, a study has revealed.
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Trump’s Payroll Tax Order Is Good Politics, but Doesn’t Offer Much Tax Relief
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FX Daily, August 14: Consolidation Featured Ahead of the Weekend
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Banks braced as pandemic poses biggest test since financial crisis
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Fama 2: No Inflation For Old Central Banks
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Are Negative Rates a Natural Historical Development?
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FX Daily, August 13: Dollar Remains Offered
SNB and CHF
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB buying euros at high prices
Update August 10, 2020: SNB buying euros at high prices. Sight Deposits have risen by +2.1 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +2.1 bn. compared to last week.
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Fed and ECB Money Printing Helps SNB Back into Positive Territory
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“Unabhängigkeit der Nationalbank (Independence of the SNB),” FuW, 2020
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“Monetäre Staatsfinanzierung mit Folgen (Monetary Financing of Government),” Die Volkswirtschaft, 2020
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Umsetzung FIDLEG/FINIG: FINMA bewilligt erste Aufsichtsorganisationen
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Willkommen in einer Zukunft ohne Zins
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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q1 2020
Gold and Bitcoin
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Perfect Storm for Precious Metals Leads to Price Correction
Gold fell by nearly 6% yesterday and silver by a whopping 15%, the largest one day loss in over 7 years. The futures market saw massive volumes of selling with over 1.6 bn ounces of silver contracts sold yesterday. That’s a value of over $40 billion.
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Silver Supply & Demand Still Strong at $29, 11 Aug
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Silver Explodes—But Why?
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Short Term Weakness Likely Prior To A “Massive Short Squeeze Propels” Gold and Silver “To Much Higher Levels” – GoldCore
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A blueprint for a European superstate
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Gold Reaches $2,000/oz Prior to Two “Concerted Attacks” In Futures Market
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Gold futures end a stone’s throw away from a record
Austrian Economics
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Trump’s Payroll Tax Order Is Good Politics, but Doesn’t Offer Much Tax Relief
President Trump issued a new executive order on August 8 directing the Treasury Department to defer the 6.2 percent Social Security tax on wages for employees making less than about $100,000 a year. The suspension on collections will be in effect from September 1 through December 31.
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Are Negative Rates a Natural Historical Development?
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Kamala Harris Is Basically Obama-Clinton 2.0, but Worse
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The Dollar Is Dying
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Claudio Grass: Fractional Reserve Banking is a Fraud
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Why Fed Bugs Really, Really Hate Gold
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Ralph Welborn on the Ecosystem-Based Strategy
Swiss & European Macro
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House View, August 2020
We have revised up our euro area GDP forecast for 2020 to -8.5%, mainly due to improving data in Germany, which is better positioned to recover rapidly from the downturn than its European peers. Meanwhile, the US economy has shown signs of flatlining amid escalating covid-19 cases in the South. Consumer confidence has taken a hit, while weekly unemployment claims have been rising again.
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Swiss Consumer sentiment makes a strong recovery but remains below average
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Record fall in overnight stays in first half of 2020
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Horizon 2020: long-term investing in a world marked by pandemic
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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2020: -0.9 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM
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Swiss Retail Sales, June 2020: 0.4 percent Nominal and 1.1 percent Real
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Weekly view – The summer grind
Swiss Markets & News
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Free trade deals save Switzerland billions, study finds
Swiss consumers and importers saved CHF2.5 billion ($2.7 billion) in 2018 thanks to lower customs duties as part of free trade agreements, a study has revealed.
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Banks braced as pandemic poses biggest test since financial crisis
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Swiss government wants extra CHF770 million to tackle coronavirus
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Coronavirus: new cases in Switzerland reach highest level since April
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Traditional working model hampers Swiss women’s careers
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Coronavirus: Swiss health authority adds pregnant women to risk list
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Switzerland agrees deal for 4.5 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine
FX Trends
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FX Daily, August 14: Consolidation Featured Ahead of the Weekend
The equity rally is stalling ahead of the weekend. Most markets in the Asia Pacific region eased, though China and Australia advanced. Japanese shares were mixed. The Nikkei, though advanced for the fourth consecutive session, while the Topis slipped.
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FX Daily, August 13: Dollar Remains Offered
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FX Daily, August 12: Dollar was Sold in Asia and Europe, but is Poised to Bounce in North America
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FX Daily, August 11: Gold and the Dollar are Sold while Stocks March Higher
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Speculative Positioning in Selected Currency Futures
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FX Daily, August 10: Monday in August
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The Ant and the Grasshopper: A Window into Macro Part II
Global Macro & Emerging Markets
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Fama 2: No Inflation For Old Central Banks
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the core CPI in July 2020 jumped by the most (+0.62%) in almost thirty years. After having dropped month-over-month for three months in a row for the first time in its history, it has posted back to back gains the latest of which pushing the index back above its February level.
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Eugene Fama’s Efficient View of Stimulus Porn
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Dollar Softens, Equities Rise as Markets Ignore the Negatives
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Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder
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SPECIAL REPORT: Follow The Money – Volume 5
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A Second JOLTS
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The Economy Is Mortally Wounded
Markets
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The Dollar Is Dying
Insulting the Captive Audience. This week, while perusing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet figures, we came across a rather curious note. We don’t know how long the Fed’s had this note posted to its website. But we can’t recall ever seeing it.
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Game Over Spending
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An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
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The Decline of the Third World
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In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade
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Gold Stocks – A Show of Strength
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The Secret to Fun and Easy Stock Market Riches
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Personal Investment
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5 Main Ways to Budget to save more money
There are many ways to budget for personal households. And there is no such thing as the best way to budget that will work for everybody.Many people use many different ways to budget their life. As long as the way you choose works for you, it is enough. You just need to find the best way for yourself.
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Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Back To Extremes: Q2-2020
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Unprecedented Recession Synchronization
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Should you buy or rent a house in Switzerland?
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Reading The Market’s Postmodern Mind
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Frugal Living in Switzerland Interview 5: The DoubleDutch Family
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Shedlock: Millennial Renters Abandon Their Home Buying Plans
CHF End of Peg
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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal
Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.
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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms
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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?
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End of EUR/CHF Peg
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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg
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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows
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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction
The History of the Swiss Franc
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Swiss Franc History: Volcker Shock, Oil Glut and the Breakdown of Gold and Emerging Markets
After the Volcker moment or sometimes called "Volcker shock", commodity prices plunged, the gold price collapsed. Thanks to additional supply, e.g. from Northsea oil, a so-called oil glut appeared. After the increase of debt in the 1970s, some economies in Southern America collapsed. The major reason was Volcker's tight monetary policy with high interest rates and the dependency on US funds.
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Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold
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Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust
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Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency
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Swiss Franc History: Weak German and Swiss growth between 1996 and 2004
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Swiss Franc History, 2000-2007: The sale of the Swiss gold reserves
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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis
Economic Theory
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Volckers Attack on Stagflation
In this chapter we describe how Volcker managed to defeat stagflation; he applied the monetarist models that had been applied successfully in Switzerland and Germany. Thanks to this effort, the dollar stopped its secular decline.
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Minsky and Kindleberger
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Mainstream Economics, The Long Run
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Don’t Sell Economic Stability to Buy Economic Growth, Warns Tomáš Sedláček
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7b) Major Schools of Economics
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Irvin Fisher’s Deflationary Spiral
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Mainstream Economics , The Medium Run
Richard Koo and Sector Balances
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Weak Yen, Is it Really a Currency War?
Some journalists, like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K.'s Telegraph and Michael Casey of the Wall Street Journal, have already claimed this to be a shot in the currency wars. Casey focuses exclusively on the BOJ activity and does not even mention GPIF.
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Richard Koo, Revitalizing the Eurozone without Fiscal Union, April 2012
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7d) Richard Koo’s and other Sector Balances
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How Long Will the U.S. Recovery Last? A Reminder: The False Japanese Recovery in 1998/1999
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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions
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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late
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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?
