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EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor Hike: January 2012

1.2034 The EUR/CHF Low As Risk-Off Resumes

 

1.2025 barrier supposedly in play while the 1.2000 peg below will act as a magnet if broken.

There is something about the forex mindset that prompts markets to reach out and touch things that are not meant to be touched.

EUR/US fell to 1.3063, triggering a few small stops; larger stops are in the 1.3050/60 area.

By Jamie Coleman  || January 31, 2012 at 16:22 GMT

EUR/CHF Heading Down To Towards The 1.2025 Barrier.

The earlier “dead-cat” bounce  to 1.2063 was soon forgotten, and the EUR’s since slipped back again towards  yesterday’s low of 1.2040 to 1.2047.

There’s some large bids sitting below at  1.2030/40 ahead of the barrier and the SNB floor of 1.2000, with large sell stops positioned  for a break of the peg.

 

By Pete Jackson  || January 31, 2012 at 11:35 GMT

USD/CHF: “Logical” Long Trade Not So Logical Now

Yesterday we looked at some very good reasons to be long USD/CHF and even though the spot price is 50 pips higher, the case for being long has been weakened.

  • USD/JPY has broken below 76.50 and the bears are back in control
  • EUR/CHF has broken below 1.2050 and a test of 1.2000 looks inevitable
By Sean Lee  || January 30, 2012 at 23:12 GMT

USD/CHF; The ‘Logical’ Long Trade

I know as soon as I say that, it’s bound to come back and bite me, but there are some good reasons for thinking that USD/CHF may be close to a good entry level for bulls;

  • EUR/USD: Solid technical resistance looming around 1.3250
  • USD/JPY: Semi-official bids at 76.50
  • EUR/CHF: Again talk of bids at 1.2050 from BIS and/or SNB and of course 1.2000 SNB ‘line-in-the-sand’

Putting all 3 together would seem to suggest that going long USD/CHF somewhere near here makes sense (until some of the above levels get broken)

By Sean Lee  || January 29, 2012 at 23:55 GMT

Talk BIS On The Bid In EUR/CHF At 1.2060

We’re at 1.2072.

Barriers noted at 1.2050 AND 1.2025.

By Gerry Davies  || January 27, 2012 at 08:13 GMT

Swiss KOF Leading Growth Indicator -0.17 In January

Weaker than median forecast of -0.05.

EUR/CHF tiny bit firmer at 1.2070.

By Gerry Davies  || January 27, 2012 at 08:10 GMT

EUR/CHF: Time Of Week To Be Careful Again

Yes there are big bids at 1.2050 and yes the SNB has again reiterated its intention to maintain a 1.20 peg in EUR/CHF, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the monstrous stop-loss sell orders below 1.20 are safe!

Is it possible that on a Monday morning, stops get triggered below 1.20? Is it possible that the full market opens way below 1.20 and causes a big ‘margin call’ event? Is it possible that the SNB don’t have a firm bid at 1.2000, but decide later in the day to drive it back higher? Answer Yes to all.

Sorry if I sound like a Nervous Nellie, but we’ve all seen these things happen before, so be careful!

By Sean Lee  || January 27, 2012 at 02:21 GMT

EUR/CHF Down To 1.2060

1.2057 was the low earlier this week, 1.2056 last week.

By Adam Button  || January 26, 2012 at 20:03 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Regions, Techs || Tags: EUR/CHF, franc, Swiss Franc || 15 comments || Add comment

EUR/CHF: Speculators Buying, Real Money Selling

More heavy turnover reported overnight in EUR/CHF with leveraged speculators still the primary buyers and real money accounts selling rallies. If these reports are accurate, then the stop-loss sell orders below 1.2000 must surely be increasing day by day.

By Sean Lee  || January 26, 2012 at 01:02 GMT

EUR/CHF Bolstered By Take-Over Talk…….

Swiss company Roche  are making a hostile bid of $5.7 bln  for US company Illumina INC, whioch is weakening the swiss franc this morning ..

The move  is being more reflected in the EUR/CHF cross with a jump to 1.2109 just now . USD/CHF is holding steady around 0.9285

On the orders i haven’t heard much so far except the much spoken  barrier at 1.2050 and large bids aherad of it around 1.2060.

I’ll update later when I have more

By Pete Jackson  || January 25, 2012 at 08:53 GMT

I Can’t Say I’m Overly Surprised, But……

Just being told “very large bids” in EUR/CHF down to 1.2050 on EBS.

We sit at 1.2060.  Talk of barrier interest at 1.2050.

By Gerry Davies  || January 24, 2012 at 10:57 GMT

EUR/CHF: Fails To Bounce Despite General Positive Sentiment

The short-covering in the EUR failed to affect EUR/CHF and we are not very far away from important support at 1.2050 and vital support at 1.2000. The SNB re-iterated overnight their intent to defend the 1.20 peg (but does that mean they will be on the bid at 1.2000 exactly or will 50/75 pips below be also ok?). Monstrous stops are also reported below 1.2000.

By Sean Lee  || January 24, 2012 at 03:57 GMT

Category: All, Asia, orders || Tags: EUR/CHF || 7 comments || Add comment

ForexLive Asian Market Open: EUR Falls In Early Interbank Trade

EUR/USD is trading at 1.2860 and EUR/JPY is at 99.00, both 50 pips below their Friday closing levels. Cable is trading at 1.5530, AUD/USD at 1.0460 and EUR/CHF at 1.2070.

Greece remains the key to the medium-term EUR sentiment but Monday morning moves are generally 100% driven by stop-loss orders.

Good luck today.

By Sean Lee  || January 22, 2012 at 20:48 GMT

ICAP: Clients’ Swiss Franc Deals After EBS Error Wed “Will Stand”

By Gerry Davies  || January 20, 2012 at 10:59 GMT

Quick Review Of The Order Boards

  • EUR/USD: Sovereign name seen selling towards 1.3000; decent-sized option expiry at 1.2950; large expiries at 1.3000
  • AUD/USD: Large sell orders near 1.0450; solid bids 1.0350/60
  • USD/JPY: Corporate sellers 77.30 and larger near 77.50; stop-loss buy orders above 77.40; bids very solid near 76.50
  • EUR/JPY: Sell orders 100.25
  • EUR/CHF: Barrier at 1.2050; unconfirmed reports of SNB bids at 1.2050; ‘monstrous’ stops below 1.2000

That’s it from me folks, thanks very much for your company this week and see you on Monday. Have a great weekend.

By Sean Lee  || January 20, 2012 at 05:10 GMT

EUR/CHF: Be Careful Staying Long Over The Weekend

Monstrous stop-loss sell orders reported below 1.2000. I’m pretty sure the SNB will not be awake late on a Sunday night in Zurich to intervene so it’s possible that there’s a mad stop-loss rush on Monday morning. Be careful.

By Sean Lee  || January 20, 2012 at 00:36 GMT

Dash For Safety Despite Greek News

EUR/CHF plunging to 1.2069, even with Greece poised to strike a deal. Gold is rallying  to a session high as well.

By Adam Button  || January 18, 2012 at 17:46 GMT

Fat Finger In EUR/CHF?

40 pip spike in EUR/CHF, do doubt sending chills down a few backs.

Below 1.21 is a great spot to get long.

Update: My suspicions confirmed… talk of a bid at 1.2150 that was quickly removed.

By Adam Button  || January 18, 2012 at 14:44 GMT

EUR/CHF: Sizeable Selling Interest Still Noted

Despite the liklihood that the SNB will be defending the 1.2000 level in this pair, big real money funds were noted sellers of the cross overnight above 1.2120. It would seem like an obvious thing to do, to wait and sell on stop below 1.2000 if the SNB fail to hold it up, so why don’t these big professional funds do that? I have no idea I must admit but I have also no interest in trying to buy this pair in the hope that the SNB come good; the bearish sentiment is simply too strong.

By Sean Lee  || January 18, 2012 at 05:37 GMT

Quick Look At The Order Boards

  • EUR/USD: Plentiful selling interest emerged last night at 1.2810 and further large selling interest is reported 1.2840/50 and 1.2870/80; the big bids are being patient at 1.2620/30 although I suspect any dips towards yesterdays lows at 1.2650/60 will be well supported. No news on any bids before then which is quite a big gap!
  • AUD/USD: Macro players were noted sellers yesterday at/near 1.0420 as also were an Asian central bank and a Middle East Sovereign. Real money remain the main buyers but no major buying interest seen until near 1.0300.
  • USD/JPY: Same old story; semi-official bids at 76.50 and real money as well as corporate offers starting at 77.15
  • CHF: Large demand reported overnight for the CHF against a variety of other currencies like USD, EUR and GBP- once again real money buyers dominate.
  • EUR/JPY: Sell orders reported at 98.55 and of course the big optionality at/below 97.00

By Sean Lee  || January 18, 2012 at 03:09 GMT

Swiss Finance Minister: EUR/CHF Should Be 1.35/1.40

  • Exports suffer from franc strength
  • 2012 growth seen at 0.5%

My annual income should be $4.8 bln. What it is and what it should be are two very different things…

UPDATE:

  • Up to Swiss National Bank to to act on franc
  • Hopes for franc easing sooner rather than later
  • No new support for Swiss companies planned
  • All euro scenarios are being considered
  • Euro will survive
  • Number of euro countries could drop
  • Sees Germany, Netherlands, France in euro zone

By Jamie Coleman  || January 17, 2012 at 14:13 GMT

Quick Look At The Order Board

  • AUD/USD: Solid offers ahead of barrier at 1.0400; stops reportedly above 200-day MA at 1.0408
  • EUR/CHF: Large 1.2100 expiries later today should ensure that spot doesn’t move too far away from there
  • EUR/USD: Very large bids 1.2620/30
  • USD/JPY: Semi-official bids near 76.50; real money and corporate offers 77.15/25
  • USD/CAD: Stop-loss sell orders below 1.0125

By Sean Lee  || January 17, 2012 at 05:39 GMT

ForexLive Asian Market Open: EUR/USD Testing Lows In Early Trade

The early interbank market is testing Friday night’s lows near 1.2625 but hasn’t managed to break below there yet, the range so far this morning being 1.2630/58. The AUD continues to hold up well despite the risk-off environment and is trading just below 1.0300 while elsewhere cable is at 1.5290, EUR/CHF is 1.2070 and USD/JPY 77.00.

Good luck today.

By Sean Lee  || January 15, 2012 at 20:19 GMT

Only Bits And Pieces On The Bid In EUR/CHF

Traders say there are only EUR 100 mln on the bid on the EBS from 1.2087 down to 1.2080.

Looks like SNB does not want to get into a fight today. Can’t blame them.

By Jamie Coleman  || January 13, 2012 at 15:17 GMT

Talk Of Large Bids At 1.2090 In EUR/CHF………

We’re down near the day’s lows  of 1.2095 , and there’s been a lot of rumblings about the peg this morning apparently eminating from the bond markets.

Talk that SNB is set to raise the peg again to 1.3000 from one corner, with the other rumour that it’s going to be withdrawn!.

Either way there are bids to the tune of 500+ million euro’s plonked on the EBS at 1.2090 ahead of barriers reported at 1.2075 and 1.2050 .

Could be an interesting session with the usual Friday rumour mills in full swing (…….especially as it’s Friday the 13th !)

 

By Pete Jackson  || January 13, 2012 at 09:15 GMT

EUR/CHF: No Signs Or Sounds From SNB

Heavy stops were triggered below 1.2100 last night but falls were limited to 1.2083, with many players very happy to buy dips ahead of expected SNB action to support the pair above 1.2000. Now that we’ve had a look below 1.2100, I’d expect further losses to test the big 1.2000 level sometime over the next week or so. There had been some expectation that the SNB might start buying as soon as 1.2100 broke, but no sightings have been reported to the best of my knowledge.

By Sean Lee  || January 13, 2012 at 00:54 GMT

ECB Gets More Dovish So EUR Rallies; Welcome To World Of FX Logic

The slightly more dovish language used by Mario Draghi in his statement has interbank analysts now looking for two 25bps rate cuts in H1, which would take rates down to 0.5%. This doesn’t come as a major surprise, and looks like a case of ‘sell-the-rumour-buy-the-fact’ with EUR shorts covering aggressively especially against the USD and the GBP.

By Sean Lee  || January 12, 2012 at 23:19 GMT

EUR/CHF Prints 1.20986

Guess they popped a barrier there…

No stampede out of the safe-haven Swiss franc today despite the improved tone in EUR/USD.

By Jamie Coleman  || January 12, 2012 at 15:21 GMT

EUR/USD: Some Reasons To Be Cautiously Bullish In Short-Term

  • Possible double-bottom at 1.2660
  • EUR/GBP looks to be challenging recent downtrend
  • EUR/AUD reaches what for some was a target level at 1.2325
  • EUR/CHF getting close to major supports where SNB intervention will emerge
  • Market is very short of EUR across the board
  • German Bund auction performed well yesterday

By Sean Lee  || January 12, 2012 at 02:24 GMT

SNB Active In The Forward Market

They mean business I tell ya.

EUR/CHF relatively steady at 1.2125, marginally firmer from the 1.2110 I walked into first thing.

By Gerry Davies  || January 10, 2012 at 09:37 GMT

ForexLive Asian Market Open: Chinese Trade Balance Data Today

Recent reports out of China suggest that growth forecasts for 2012 will be reduced as the European crisis weighs heavily on the export market. Recent manufacturing data out of the US shows that it is starting to concentrate more on home production rather than importing cheap goods from China, and this will also show up in today’s data. We should see some volatility in the AUD around the time of the data.

EUR/CHF will be another source of volatility after the resignation of SNB chief Hildebrand and the market is eying large stops below 1.2100. That said, overnight reports suggest that there was significant buying interest in the 1.2100/20 region overnight and it was not from the SNB, who weren’t sighted.

Good luck today.

By Sean Lee  || January 9, 2012 at 22:00 GMT

1.2106 The Low After Hidebrand Pulls Rip Cord

Kind surprising the SNB did not put a mega bid at 1.2125 to paint a pretty picture of support on the charts but perhaps they wanted to inflict some pain on the market before restoring order. We’re back to 1.2130 now.

Look for a test of 1.2000 if we can trigger the stops below 1.2100.

Rumors are that Thomas Jordan, another SNB board member will replace Hildebrand.

By Jamie Coleman  || January 9, 2012 at 13:41 GMT

SNB’s Hildebrand Resigns

Effective immediately, after currency trading scandal.

Stops below 1.2125 are being triggered. Large below 1.2100.

No successor has been named.

With the SNB leaderless, specs are attacking, driving the franc higher to see if the SNB has its defenses in place.

Here is the statement from the SNB.

By Jamie Coleman  || January 9, 2012 at 13:29 GMT

EUR/USD Rebounds As Fixing Sales Abate

EUR/USD slipped as low as 1.2725 on selling at the 13:15 ECB fixing but prices quickly rebounded was the fixing passed. BIS buying has been seen in recent trade.

EUR/CHF bounced from the SNB’s perceived line in the sand. Expect dip buyers in abundance down here but heavy stop -loss sell orders on a break of the 1.2125 area., especially below 1.2100.

EUR/USD sellers are seen in the 1.2790/1.2810 area but trailing stops are clustered around 1.2820/25.

By Jamie Coleman  || January 9, 2012 at 13:28 GMT

EUR/CHF: Getting Closer To Supposed SNB Level At 1.2125

There has been a slow and gradual drift lower in EUR/CHF and we are close to testing the 1.2125 level, where the SNB are rumoured to be buying (just as they did a few months ago). Stop-loss sell orders are reported just below there and again below 1.2100.

By Sean Lee  || January 9, 2012 at 04:45 GMT

EUR/CHF: Important Levels Looming Near 1.2100/25

  • Unconfirmed reports that SNB is buying at 1.2125
  • Heavy stop-loss sell orders below 1.2100

If this bearish EUR sentiment persists, we will probably see another test of these support levels in coming days.

By Sean Lee  || January 8, 2012 at 23:48 GMT

Switzerland’s Social Democrat Party Calls On SNB To Raise Cap On EUR/CHF – Tages Anzeiger

Bloomberg reporting.

Party Chairman Levrat opined “The euro limit of 1.20 must be increased” adding “It’s a question of credibility”

Oh-eh missus….

By Gerry Davies  || January 6, 2012 at 07:13 GMT

Important Swiss Data This Morning

Well fairly important anyways.

08:15 GMT:   Swiss CPI for December expected -0.1% m/m, -0.6% y/y

Weaker than expected data, indicating creeping deflationary pressures, should lend EUR/CHF some underpinning. The cross presently sits around session high 1.2190.

By Gerry Davies  || January 6, 2012 at 06:26 GMT

CHF Chatter

  • SNB chief Hildebrand will hold what should be an interesting press conference later today
  • Talk in market that SNB is bidding at 1.2125 in EUR/CHF

By Sean Lee  || January 5, 2012 at 04:21 GMT

Category: All, Asia, Central Banks, orders || Tags: EUR/CHF || 5 comments || Add comment

EUR/CHF: We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Peg Hike

Did you see the Swiss manufacturing data this morning? 50.7 in December after 44.8 in November.

Hopes for a hike in the peg to 1.25 or 1.30 just left town…

Heavy bids are rumored (from the SNB and friends) at 1.2125. Heavier stops will be perched not far below, probably heaviest below 1.2100.

By Jamie Coleman  || January 3, 2012 at 13:16 GMT

Quick Orders Update

Information on the order front is a bit slow this morning, with many orders being cancelled over the long weekend.

  • EUR/CHF: Heavy stop-loss sell orders reported below 1.2115 and 1.2100
  • Cable: Bids reported 1.5460/70
  • NZD/USD: Solid sell orders near .7925 (100 pips above present levels)
By Sean Lee  || January 3, 2012 at 01:56 GMT
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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