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Before getting too excited about the IEA’s forecast of US oil production leadership…

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist of Saxo Bank, recently called for quitting long Gold and “being scared” trades.

For him shale gas & oil is the game changer for the United States. It should make the US the leader for global growth in the next years. The International Energy Association (IEA) declared that the US would be energy-independent by 2030.

US Oil Independence

US Oil Independence - Click to enlarge

Today a nice article about the history of wrong IEA forecasts came out:

Before getting too excited about the IEA’s forecast of US oil production leadership…

Moreover environmentalists do not stop to protest against the fracking techniques.

 

Here again the main slide of Steen’s presentation.  The big question is for how long his investment recommendation is valid. In the 1990s the US were leading in technology, especially with the IT revolution. We are quite unsure that shale gas and oil can really have the same effect.

Jakobsen recommends shorting gold

Jakobsen recommends shorting gold - Click to enlarge

 

 

To deliver a different argument here an interesting chart from the congress why the United States despite the rising population and the shale gas effect will have problems to remain the leader in global growth.

Saxo Bank, recently called for quitting long Gold and "being scared" trades.

For them shale gas & oil is the game changer for the United States. It should make the US the leader for global growth in the next years. The International Energy Association (IEA) declared that the US would be energy-independent by 2030.

Today a nice article about the history of wrong IEA forecasts came out: Before getting too excited about the IEA’s forecast of US oil production leadership… Moreover environmentalists do not stop to protest against the fracking techniques. - Click to enlarge

 

Here another one about foodstamps:

Food stamps development US since 1950

Saxo Bank, recently called for quitting long Gold and "being scared" trades.

For them shale gas & oil is the game changer for the United States. It should make the US the leader for global growth in the next years. The International Energy Association (IEA) declared that the US would be energy-independent by 2030.

Today a nice article about the history of wrong IEA forecasts came out: Before getting too excited about the IEA’s forecast of US oil production leadership… Moreover environmentalists do not stop to protest against the fracking techniques. - Click to enlarge

 

See more about Steen’s dollar bullishness on Saxo Bank’s trading floor.

 

George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Permanent link to this article: https://snbchf.com/2012/11/us-oil-production-leadership/

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