
Newest Updates:
- Ex-Post FX Evaluation: Is the Swiss Capital Account Able to Neutralise the Persistent Current Account Surpluses?
- Purchasing Power Parity, REER: Is CHF Overvalued? (July 2015 update)
Overview:
- In Deutsch: George Dorgan bei den Jungfreisinnigen Zürich: CHF und Schweizer Wirtschaft
- Swiss Franc and Swiss Economy: The Overview Questions
- Before and After Lehman: Switzerland and the United States Compared
- George Dorgan at the CFA Society: Slides
- Our Core Thesis: Either SNB sells reserves under EUR 1.20 or Switzerland lives a typical boom/bust scenario. We suggest that both MUST happen.
Articles on the drivers of the CHF Exchange Rate:
- CHF Price Movements: Correlations between CHF, Gold and the German Economy
- Debt Deflation, the new Financial Cycle, an Important Driver of EUR/CHF
- Real Yields Differentials as Driver of the CHF Exchange Rate
- Carry Trade: Is the Swiss Capital Account Able to Neutralise the Persistent Current Account Surpluses?
- George Dorgan @EuroMoney Conference: CHF as Funding Currency: Where is the Carry Trade, Bob Savage?
- Is EUR/CHF 1.30 Possible?
- The mainstream sees EUR/CHF appreciate. They do not understand the CHF drivers, a critique:
The Swiss Franc, Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism - The FX trade of the Future is EUR/CHF Short, Not EUR/CHF Long
An article written in February 2012 that summarizes many of those points in an earlier version: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction.
Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?
On CHF Valuation:
On money and real money:
- How Modern Monetary Policy Changed CHF from Gold-Backed to a USD and Euro-Backed Currency
- Why negative Swiss rates would imply that the Swiss franc appreciates
- CHF Price Movements: Correlations between CHF, Gold and the German Economy
History and Background:
- Jordan 1999 paper: Why Switzerland should never peg to the Euro
- History of the Swiss Balance of Payments and Latest Results (until 2013)
- The Volcker Moment and the First Cap on CHF
- Other blogs & info on SNB & CHF
- Research on SNB & CHF
Technicals and data:
- CHF Trade-Weighted Index
- Elliott Wave Analysis EUR/CHF
- Swiss Franc Put/Call Ratio, Futures Volumes, Open Interest etc.
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