by George Dorgan
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Newest Updates:
- Ex-Post FX Evaluation: Is the Swiss Capital Account Able to Neutralise the Persistent Current Account Surpluses?
- Purchasing Power Parity, REER: Is CHF Overvalued? (July 2015 update)
Overview:
- In Deutsch: George Dorgan bei den Jungfreisinnigen Zürich: CHF und Schweizer Wirtschaft
- Swiss Franc and Swiss Economy: The Overview Questions
- Before and After Lehman: Switzerland and the United States Compared
- George Dorgan at the CFA Society: Slides
- Our Core Thesis: Either SNB sells reserves under EUR 1.20 or Switzerland lives a typical boom/bust scenario. We suggest that both MUST happen.
Articles on the drivers of the CHF Exchange Rate:
- CHF Price Movements: Correlations between CHF, Gold and the German Economy
- Debt Deflation, the new Financial Cycle, an Important Driver of EUR/CHF
- Real Yields Differentials as Driver of the CHF Exchange Rate
- Carry Trade: Is the Swiss Capital Account Able to Neutralise the Persistent Current Account Surpluses?
- George Dorgan @EuroMoney Conference: CHF as Funding Currency: Where is the Carry Trade, Bob Savage?
- Is EUR/CHF 1.30 Possible?
- The mainstream sees EUR/CHF appreciate. They do not understand the CHF drivers, a critique:
The Swiss Franc, Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism - The FX trade of the Future is EUR/CHF Short, Not EUR/CHF Long
An article written in February 2012 that summarizes many of those points in an earlier version: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction.
Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?
On CHF Valuation:
On money and real money:
- How Modern Monetary Policy Changed CHF from Gold-Backed to a USD and Euro-Backed Currency
- Why negative Swiss rates would imply that the Swiss franc appreciates
- CHF Price Movements: Correlations between CHF, Gold and the German Economy
History and Background:
- Jordan 1999 paper: Why Switzerland should never peg to the Euro
- History of the Swiss Balance of Payments and Latest Results (until 2013)
- The Volcker Moment and the First Cap on CHF
- Other blogs & info on SNB & CHF
- Research on SNB & CHF
Technicals and data:
- CHF Trade-Weighted Index
- Elliott Wave Analysis EUR/CHF
- Swiss Franc Put/Call Ratio, Futures Volumes, Open Interest etc.
The curator is:
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers.
George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
