Category Archive: CHF

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Julius Bär’s Acket Talking Nonsense: Too Much Transparency on SNB Sight Deposits?

Julius Baer's Chief Economist Janwillem Acket argues that by publishing weekly sight deposits, the SNB is telling the market too much. George Dorgan responds that this hiding of economic data will need to happen also in trade data, in GDP data and even in the disclosure of Swiss company results. For Adam Button, this contradicts the people's desire of transparency.

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Impressive Swiss Recovery After SNB Peg Removal

Retail data shows that the SNB peg removal in January 2015 as early as April 2015 with minimal adverse impact on the economy. Trade surplus showed that Switzerland had fully recovered its lost trade surplus in May and expectations crossed an important threshold into positive territory in June. CHF strengthened since May end, as the market caught wind of the Swiss recovery, and the Grexit would further strengthen the CHF if it were to occur.

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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms

George Dorgan shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement in the local currency. Effectively, Swiss real GDP rose by 15% in Euro terms, but fell slightly in CHF. He also emphasizes that Switzerland needs a big rebalancing of its economy, away from exports towards consumption. The Swiss National Bank was right to remove the euro peg. The move towards consumption is only possible when the Swiss franc is stronger because consumers will...

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The two phases of CHF appreciation… and what is in between

We show the two phases or "two innings" of Swiss franc appreciation: The risk aversion phase and the high inflation phase. With the weakening of emerging markets and the strengthening of the United States in 2013/2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had won the first battle in the war against financial market, the "risk aversion game", the first inning in two-part match. Risk aversion is lower because the United States recovered with weaker oil...

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The History of the Swiss Franc



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Swiss Franc History: The Gold Standard and Bretton Woods

In this post we will show the history of the Swiss Franc until 1971, a monetary era driven by the gold standard and the Bretton Woods period, both periods with nearly fixed exchange rates.

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Ex-Post FX Evaluation: Is the Swiss Capital Account Able to Neutralise the Persistent Current Account Surpluses?

(post written originally in March 2013) We reckon that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will have issues maintaining the EUR/CHF floor in the longer term, because the expected yields on Swiss investments abroad will not be sufficiently higher than the yield on investments in Switzerland. Because of this insufficient risk-reward relationship, outflows in the capital account of the Swiss balance of payments will not cover the persistent Swiss current...

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2) CHF



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Das Ende der Schweizer Sozialbürokratie dank bedingungslosem Grundeinkommen (BGE)



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Is the Swiss Franc Really so Expensive or is Swiss Consumption anemic?

One of the most predictable consequences of the Swiss National Bank’s decision to stop suppressing the exchange rate between the franc and the euro was the whinging of Swiss exporters. That doesn’t mean the policy change was an error. If anything, it may help rebalance the Swiss economy away from its excessive dependence on exports towards greater levels of domestic consumption.

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End of EUR/CHF Peg

Selected essays on the end of the EUR/CHF peg

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Colin Lloyd on the end of the EUR CHF peg

Colin Llyod gives a detailed explanation of the end of the EUR/CHF peg on Seeking Alpha. Most extracts come from George Dorgan, on snbchf.com

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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows

There is a straightforward answer to the question in the headline: more money has been trying to get into Switzerland than get out, which didn’t affect the exchange rate as long as the Swiss National Bank bought foreign currency. As soon as they stop...

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End of Peg Buiter Critique

In a Citi research note, Willem Buiter discusses the SNB’s decision to discontinue the exchange rate floor of the Swiss Franc vis-a-vis the Euro. His main points are: Buiter refers to his earlier work on removing the lower bound on nominal interest r...

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CHF Is No Safe-Haven, but a Safe Proxy for Global Economic Growth

In our view the Swiss franc is not a pure Safe-Haven, but a "Safe Proxy for Global Economic Growth". Global investors want to participate via the purchase of safe Swiss multi-nationals in global growth. This means inflows into Swiss franc denominated assets. Together with the big Swiss trade surplus, this implies a stronger franc. China stands for global economy, its slowing growth has a negative influence on the profits of Swiss multi-nationals...

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What Caused The Swiss Financial Tsunami? Three Reasons, One Trigger, One Chain Reaction

In this post we give our (Swiss) view for the financial tsunami on January 15. The SNB has preferred its secondary mandate, namely financial stability, and the elimination of risks on its own balance sheet caused by ECB QE. It will not obey its primary target, price inflation, for the next three to five years. While in the mid-term (5 -10 years) inflation should move up. Differing perceptions between Switzerland and the Anglophone world about...

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Death of an FX punter

terriegym: Ive came back to my computer and Alpari have closed all my trades, loosing over $1000 off of my current balance, anyone got any idea what may have happened!!! they arent answering the phone!!

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The liquidity monster and FXCM

As we have already pointed out about Thursday’s unprecedented Swiss franc move following the SNB’s announcement about removing its 1.20 euro level floor and introducing a -0.75 per cent interest rate regime, the real story to pay attention to is what...

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What did the SNB do to EURCHF options markets?

The Swiss National Bank made G10 FX a lot more fun to watch today. One interesting thing is how the options markets responded. Via Jared Woodard of BGC, here’s a chart comparing the move in one-week implied volatility in the exchange rate between the...

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The SNB and the Russia/oil connection

A quick post to collate a few side theories on the reasons, justifications and consequences of the SNB move. Simon Derrick at BNY Mellon is first to point out that the euro floor/chf celing was leaving an open door to safe haven flows from Russia by ...

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