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SNB Monetary Assessment March 2013

Jordan in the ECO interview

Jordan in the ECO interview - Click to enlarge

In its monetary assessment the SNB maintains the EUR/CHF floor and warned against further risks in the euro zone. The SNB has downgraded the inflation path to -0.2% (previously-0.1%) in 2013 and +0.2% (previously +0.4%) in 2014, while Swiss Statistics speaks of +0.1% for 2013 in its newest projection.

We see that oil prices are weaker than one year ago. This is for us a temporary influence that should finish by May/June. Furthermore we expect import prices from the main trading partner Germany to move higher again due to rising salaries. This would counter some longer lasting downwards pressure. Last but least, a weaker franc would accelerate inflation. Therefore we do not agree with the SNB inflation expectations for 2013 and match rather with Swiss Statistics. For 2014 we expect 0.5% higher inflation and a further shrinking of the gap with the whole euro zone.

 

 

George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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