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Q1 GDP: Japan +1.0%, AUS, Swiss +0.6%, US +0.45%, Germany +0.1%, Italy -0.5%


Update June 26: The Swiss economy has grown more quickly than the United States in Q1 2013. Japan is in the lead of the global comparison with 1.0% quarterly growth, Australia and Switzerland follow with 0.6%, the US has 0.45% QoQ (or 1.8% annualized), Germany 0.1% and Italy slowed by -0.5%.

Weakest currency, strongest growth, Japan was the first to exit the “modern gold standard”.

Swiss GDP has grown by 1.1% YoY in the last year against the median analysts’ estimate of 0.9%. The quarterly increase was 0.6% against a forecast of 0.2%.


Swiss GDP Q1 2013

Swiss GDP Q1 2013 annual data (source SECO)

Swiss GDP Q1 2013 QoQ

Comparison of Q1 performance against Germany, U.S., Australia, Italy and Japan

German GDP fell by 0.3% against one year ago, while QoQ it rose by 0.1%. In the last quarter, both fixed capital formation and inventories (the two in total 2.4%) dragged while consumers added 0.8%. (source destatis)

The US managed to achieve a 2.4% annualized GDP increase, while the Swiss had exactly the same figure for Q1 (0.6 QoQ, 2.42% annualized). Thanks to massive quantitative easing, US personal consumption rose by 3.4% annualized, the Swiss household consumption increased by 0.6% in Q1 or 2.42% annualized. In the US fixed capital formation and inventories had a positive contribution to GDP of 1.1% annualized.

Swiss gross fixed capital formation was negative with -0.3%. Positive inventory movements, that aren’t published officially, countered the -0.8% decrease in (net) fixed assets of -0.8%.

In Australia, however, both inventories and fixed capital formation were negative, while thanks to exports the GDP rose by 0.6%.

Swiss vs. Germany Australia USA Italy

 Contributors to expenditure on GDP were Net exports (1.0 percentage points) and Final consumption expenditure (0.4 percentage points). The detractors were total gross fixed capital formation (–0.7 percentage points) and Changes in inventories (–0.4 percentage points). (source)

P.S. UBS has still not changed its estimate of 0.9% household consumption for 2013 to the actual figure of 2.5% (0.6% QoQ).

P.P.S.. June 15: UBS has updated its estimate for Swiss household consumption from 0.9% to 1.9%. (link to UBS forecast)


Read also:

The history of wrong forecasts by Swiss and Fed economists

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George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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