Tag Archive: Italy

FX Daily, January 18: US is on Holiday, but the Dollar has Legs

2021-01-18

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2021-01-18

Overview: The new week has begun like last week ended.  Equities are a bit heavy.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the second session, its first back-to-back loss since before Christmas.  China and Hong Kong were the notable exceptions, perhaps helped by stronger than expected GDP. 

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FX Daily, January 15: The Greenback is Finishing the Week with a Firm Tone

2021-01-15

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2021-01-15

The US dollar is firm against most of the major and emerging market currencies today. Among the majors, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are resilient. For the week, sterling and the yen appear poised to eke out small gains, while the Scandi's are the weakest performers with around a 1% decline.

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FX Daily, January 14: Markets are Subdued Despite Impeachment and Record Chinese Trade Surplus

2021-01-14

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2021-01-14

Overview:  The capital markets are becalmed today. There does not appear to be much reaction to the news that the House of Representatives impeached President Trump an unprecedented second time with greater bipartisan support than previously (10 GOP voted with the Democratic majority). 

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FX Daily, January 13: PBOC Sends Signal as Market Looks Past Impeachment Vote

2021-01-13

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2021-01-13

The US dollar is regaining ground lost in yesterday's setback against the major currencies. Sterling is the notable exception. It was toying with the $1.37 area, perhaps helped by the Governor of the Bank of England signal that there still are hurdles to adopting negative interest rates, which the futures market is still discounting for as soon as midyear.

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FX Daily, January 12: Markets Catch Collective Breath

2021-01-12

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2021-01-12

Overview:  The capital markets were stabilizing today after dramatic moves yesterday. Equity markets are recovering, and the dollar is paring yesterday's gains.  Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, though Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia were notable exceptions. 

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FX Daily, January 08: Can the Dollar Find Traction Even if the Employment Data Disappoint?

2021-01-08

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2021-01-08

The global equity rally picked up this week as it closed in 2019. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained today and is up in nine of the past 10 sessions. It has fallen only in one week since the end of October. South Korea's Kospi led today's advance with a nearly 4% rally on the back of talks that were later played down between Hyundai and Apple. 

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FX Daily, November 6: A Pause that Refreshens?

2020-11-06

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2020-11-06

Investors have piled into risk assets this week, seemingly undeterred by the US elections' lack of a clear outcome. The coronavirus is still surging, and a new complication has emerged. A mutation of the virus, originating in minks (Denmark), could pose a challenge in developing a vaccine. MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fifth consecutive session today to end its best week since April.

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FX Daily, October 26: Troubling Start of the Important Week

2020-10-26

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2020-10-26

The surging virus ravaging large parts of Europe and the United States is fanning concerns over the economic implications as new social restrictions and curfews are announced in several countries. US additional fiscal support remains elusive as aid for states and local governments remains a bone of contention. 

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FX Daily, October 9: Animal Spirits Return

2020-10-09

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2020-10-09

Overview:  The on-again-off-again fiscal stimulus in the US is back on as the White House now supports a broad stimulus program, but not as big as the Democrats $2.2 trillion package.  It is the narrative being cited as the rebuilding of risk appetites is the wobble earlier in the week. 

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Writing Rebound in Italian

2020-09-04

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2020-09-04

Real GDP Pro forma, 2005-2023
As the calendar turned to September, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued new guidelines expanding and extending existing moratoriums previously put in place to stop evictions during the pandemic.

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FX Daily, July 30: Greenback’s Bounce is Likely Short-Lived

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

A wave of profit-taking is seen through most of the capital markets today, with the exception of the bond market, where yields continue to trend lower.  The US 10-year is now yielding 55 bp, a new low since early March, and the five-year yield set a new record low near 23 bp.  European yields are 2-4 bp lower.

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FX Daily, July 23: Powerful Momentum is Still Evident in the Foreign Exchange Market

2020-07-23

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2020-07-23

The powerful momentum moves in the capital markets continues unabated by escalating US-China tensions and continued spread of the virus. Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Tokyo was closed for a holiday, but several other large markets in the region, like China, South Korea, and Taiwan markets slipped lower, while Hong Kong, Australia, and India advanced.

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The global economy doesn’t care about the ECB (nor any central bank)

2020-05-14

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2020-05-14

Europe Industrial Production, 1991-2020
The monetary mouse. After years of Mario Draghi claiming everything under the sun available with the help of QE and the like, Christine Lagarde came in to the job talking a much different approach. Suddenly, chastened, Europe’s central bank needed assistance. So much for “do whatever it takes.”They did it – and it didn’t take.Lagarde’s outreach was simply an act of admitting reality.

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FX Daily, May 11: Quiet Start to New Week

2020-05-11

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2020-05-11

Overview: The new week begins slowly in the capital markets. Many markets in the Asia Pacific region, including Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia, gained over 1%, but European and US shares are heavier. Benchmarks off all three regions rallied by 3.4%-3.5% over the past two weeks. Bond markets are also little changed, with the US 10-year benchmark just below 70 bp ahead of this week's record refunding.

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FX Daily, April 29: Heavy Dollar amid Month-End Pressure

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

Overview: The dollar is lower across the board as dealers attribute the selling to month-end pressures ahead of the FOMC today and ECB tomorrow and long-holiday weekend for many. Japan's Golden Week holiday has already begun. Despite the loss in US equities yesterday, despite the higher opening, it has not spilled over, as Alphabet earnings helped lift sentiment.

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FX Daily, April 22: Investors Catch Collective Breath, but Sentiment remains Fragile

2020-04-22

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2020-04-22

Overview:  Risk-appetites appear to have stabilized for the moment. Most equity markets are higher. Japan and Malaysia were exceptions, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the first time this week. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is recouping about a third of yesterday's loss.

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FX Daily, March 10: Markets Stabilize after Body Blow

2020-03-10

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2020-03-10

Overview:  It appears after a few days of miscues, US officials struck the right chord, and the global capital markets seemed to stabilize shortly after the US session ended.  President Trump's press conference today is expected to spell out in greater detail relief for households and businesses.  Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by a 3% surge in Australia.

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FX Daily, March 9: Monday Meltdown

2020-03-09

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2020-03-09

Overview: Equities plunged, and yields sank as the coronavirus threatens a global recession. The oil price war signaled by Saudi Arabia and Russia aggravates the desperate situation. Equities markets in the Asia Pacific region slumped 3-7%. The Shanghai Composite was fell 3%. The Nikkei was off by 5%, and Australia was hit among the hardest with a 7.3% loss.

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FX Daily, February 26: Dramatic Investor Adjustment Continues

2020-02-26

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2020-02-26

Overview: The warning by the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention that Americans should prepare for an outbreak of Covid-19 sent the S&P 500 tumbling to an 11-week low and the 10-year Treasury yield to a record low near 1.30%. The volatility of the S&P (VIX) jumped to its highest level since 2018. The sell-off in global equities continues unabated.

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FX Daily, February 24: Stocks Slammed and Yields Drop as Virus Containment Fails

2020-02-24

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2020-02-24

Overview: The ring of containment of Covid-19 has grown from China. The new frontline is Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Iran. A lockdown of around 50k people near Milan and Austria blocking trains from Italy is scaring investors. Asian markets fell, but South Korea bore the brunt with a nearly 4% decline. The national holiday in Japan spared local equities.

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