Category Archive: Feed


Back in late August we posted something about Mr. Trump’s chances probably being a lot better than was generally assumed (see: US Presidential Election – How Reliable are the Polls?). You know what the say about a headline that ends in a question mark;...

SNB Sight Deposits, Speculative Position CHF, February15

Weekly SNB Intervention Update: Sight Deposits and Speculative Position

Don’t Worry, Inflation Will Come Back! It is already there; just not where you live !

We name the main drivers of disinflation and the downwards manipulators of the CPI: Markets, central banks, investors, governments, statisticians, ageing, entrepreneurs, global competition, technology and last but least the euro. Despite that...

Swiss Yes To Referendum Against Mass Immigration Is A Yes To Higher Salaries And Higher Inflation

In the referendum on Mass Immigration on Sunday, the Swiss opted for less competition, which implies that with the upcoming Swiss boom, salaries and inflation will rise.

Oil Price Forecasts for 2020 to 2035 and Wrong IEA Estimates

Fast CHF and Gold Price Movements

Our CHF and Gold News Bar on our home page explains daily CHF and gold price movements based on the most important fundamental indicators in a few sentences. Keep in mind that the only Swiss fundamental data that is able to move the CHF must come from...

Weekly on Swiss National Bank

U.S. Energy Independence versus the rise of Chinese household and industrial oil demand

(Originally written in 2012) We maintain that our claim that US energy independent by EIA are misleading. On the contrary, import costs for foreign oil will be the same in 2020 as today

Five myths about libertarians

    Five myths about libertarians The specter of libertarianism is haunting America. Advocates of sharply reducing the government’s size, scope and spending are raising big bucks from GOP donors, trying to steal the mantle of populism, being...

Zillow CEO: If You Can, Sell Your U.S. Home Now

Via CNBC   Against the backdrop of increasing home prices and the prospect of much higher mortgage rates, it’s a “great time” to sell, Spencer Rascoff, CEO of online real estate marketplace Zillow, told CNBC on Thursday. That is,...

Adam Smith Institute: Could Deflation Be Salvation?

Imagine wages and factor prices are stable.  Hence deflation means productivity growth: Higher quantities bought for a lower price. Low inflation or even deflation is the Swiss success story for decades and the success story for the United States...

Swiss Inflation Rises, Services Up 0.6% YoY, Goods Swiss Origin +0.3%, Energy Tames

Cheaper energy prices and long-lasting contracts help against inflation. Swiss inflation increased by 0.1% against April. According to Swiss Statistics, on a year basis, the CPI fell by 0.5%. Major reasons for lower figures were the 6.3% YoY decrease...

Swiss, Norwegian and UK PMI Lead European Recovery

The Swiss, Norway, the UK and Germans are in the lead, while, despite improvements, France, Italy and Spain are still lagging (details).

Q1 GDP: Japan +1.0%, AUS, Swiss +0.6%, US +0.45%, Germany +0.1%, Italy -0.5%

  Update June 26: The Swiss economy has grown more quickly than the United States in Q1 2013. Japan is in the lead of the global comparison with 1.0% quarterly growth, Australia and Switzerland follow with 0.6%, the US has 0.45% QoQ (or 1.8%...

Jim Rogers: EU Should Address Real Problem: Their Excessive Spending Habits

Switzerland's banking secrecy is under threat. EU finance ministers have agreed to put pressure. Jim Rogers EU leaders should address the real problems - like their own unchecked spending habits.

Sight Deposits are Rising Despite Weaker Franc

Despite the weaker franc, sight deposits at the SNB are still rising. Last week they increased by 300 million CHF – details here. For us the SNB is not buying euros, but traders are taking more and more derivative (carry trade or FX positions)...

Fast Fact: Germany paid 5% Interest and Had 0.5% Average Growth between 1996 and 2002

Most recently the Bundesbank critised the ECB decision to reduce Italian yields contained in the OMT program. To put things into perspective: Germany paid 5% interest for 10 years government bonds between 1996 and 2002. This at average...

EUR/CHF to 1.25?

Chinese economy is weaker, the Brent oil price under 100$ , the German DAX near 7500, the USD/JPY near 100, the Australian dollar is dipping. Most assets that are positively correlated to CHF are weaker.

March Swiss Inflation Up 0.2% MoM, Down -0.6% YoY

Swiss inflation edged up 0.2% MoM when seasonal effects on clothes and footware were corrected. On a year basis, the CPI fell by 0.6%. Major reason were the falling energy prices,

SNB Reserves Rise by 8 bln. CHF Thanks to Stronger USD, GBP, CAD and some FX Purchases

In March 2013, the foreign currency reserves of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) rose by 8 bln. CHF from 437 bln. to 445 bln. mostly thanks to valuation gains on US dollar, sterling and Canadian dollar.
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