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Jim Rogers, 2012: When Will the Peg Fall? Will Switzerland Become Bulgaria?

(via Tagesanzeiger, Google Translated) Given that most farmers are rather old, he says that the world should be very grateful to speculators that bet on food prices, this helps to obtain the required younger farmers. 

You should kiss the feet of speculators

Jim Rogers says that the world must be grateful that speculators drive up food prices up. The hedge fund guru believes that the euro lower limit of 1.20 francs falls soon.

"The Swiss National Bank makes a terrible mistake": Investor Jim Rogers

“The Swiss National Bank makes a terrible mistake”: Investor Jim Rogers Image: Reto Oeschger

Via Tagesanzeiger

By Philipp Löpfe

Almost every day out known hedge fund managers in the towel. When you’ve had enough?
I got out already 32 years ago. Since the 80s I invest my own money only.

You still apply in the scene as a major global macro player. What is this all about?
I invest in all asset classes in equities, bonds, currencies and commodities around the world. But basically I try very easy to buy at low prices and sell high. For well over a decade now called the Global macro. So I can live well.

The magazine “Time” She once described as Indiana Jones among investors. What we must imagine mean?
I have already invested in emerging markets, before I even knew that they are called so. For me, the markets were simply cheap.

They also announced that the commodities boom will take decades. Does this still apply?
I said that 14 years ago. Investments in commodities have actually pays a lot better this time than equities. And I think they will continue to do so. But again, I have always invested in all asset classes.

The world economy languishes, the Chinese economy grows less rapidly. Does this mean that the super cycle of raw materials coming to an end?
The claim the journalists. In the equity markets were repeated corrections, even to crash. Always the end of the stock cycle was summoned, but it has never voted. Of raw materials, you can still earn a lot of money today.

You are a supporter of China. Her two children have to learn Mandarin. Why is that?
China will suffer setbacks, but it will still be the most important country in the 21st century. That’s why I moved to Asia.

China has neither a real market economy nor is it a democracy.
South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore were not democracies, and in Japan, one can also argue about. All these countries were economically in the last 30 to 40 years the most successful.

Belongs to the state capitalism in the future?
Plato said: Nations evolve from dictatorships to democracies to oligarchies to chaos and back to dictatorship. I do not know if the Asians Plato read, but the “Asian way” definitely has great similarity with this development.

What does the rise of the East to the West?
In the interwar years, the US broke the United Kingdom as a world power, accompanied by financial crises and blunders of politics. When transfer of power from the US to Asia now we are seeing the same thing. The assets are in the east, the debt in the West. Therefore, I advise: Children should learn Mandarin.

Where do you currently have invested your money?
Commodities and currencies. Of shares and bonds I currently do not touch.

What do you think about the dollar?
It is a horrible vulnerable currency. You can currently hold only reason to water, because the dollar is still seen as a safe haven in turbulent times. But this is a mistake. The dollar today is anything but a safe haven.

Why is that? There are no insolvency problem. Who invests in US government bonds, which shall in any case back his bet.
There are several ways to go broke. If debts are paid with the money printing press, you get though the money back, but it’s not worth anything. The US will go bankrupt, thereby destroying its currency.

How do you keep it with the euro?
I have replaced all my Euro in Swiss francs. I also expect that the 1.20-franc ceiling collapse and will enhance the Franks massive.

When will this happen?
Within the next two years.

The Swiss National Bank , however, has vowed that they will not allow it.
The Swiss National Bank makes a terrible mistake. You can not buy unlimited foreign currencies. So they destroyed their capital – and the Swiss franc. And then what has yet to offer Switzerland? It is then a minor, inflation-ridden European small state. As Bulgaria.

We still have a pretty potent export industry.
The most important industry in Switzerland is the financial industry. If the franc is destroyed, no one puts his money in Switzerland. I have my money for a long time in Switzerland – but then I’m going to pull it off.

How do you see the future? Coming soon the big crash?
For parts of the economy, I am very optimistic, for example for agriculture. The financial industry, however, is getting serious problems in the coming years.

Especially in the context of agriculture, there are people who make investors like you responsible for ensuring that still a billion people hungry. What do you think?
My answer is: you should kiss the feet of the speculators.

Why? If the food does not become more expensive, then we will have no more soon. The average American farmer is now 58, the Japanese even 66 years old. The largest suicide rate in the UK there is in agriculture. In the US, more people are studying public relations as agronomy. I therefore repeat: If we do not dramatically increase the price of food, we will soon have no more farmers. You can only hope that evil speculators invest in agriculture and thus drive the prices up. Who else shall till the land?

Especially in developing countries, the vast majority of people are still engaged in agriculture. Africa, for example, has hundreds of millions of small farmers.
Africa does not feed the world. Do you really think African smallholders could replace the outdated American and Canadian farmers in the foreseeable future? If you believe that, then you can continue to believe in the myth of the evil speculators. But you’d be willing to current conditions to climb onto the boots and to become a farmer? We have only two options: either make the people in the future volunteer work in the fields, or food prices must rise.

You have been a very successful investor. Why can not you make it today?
I’m doing for more than 30 years, what I like. As I said, I only invest my own money and I am not accountable to anyone. I also have twice made a two-year world tour, once on a motorcycle.

Nevertheless: Why do not you lie down on a sunny beach in the Caribbean, but argue with a stupid journalists like me around?
It makes me more fun with stupid journalists – as you call it – as quarreling with the idiots on a beach in the Caribbean (Tages-Anzeiger).

(Created: 01.11.2012, 09:05 clock)


Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers was born in 1942 in Demopolis (Alabama). He studied at Yale and Oxford History, Philosophy and Economics. In 1970 he founded with George Soros legendary Quantum Fund, who scored almost 4000 percent gain in ten years. Later he became a professor at Columbia University traveled twice around the world. Rogers is married and has two daughters.


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George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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