Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com
The Price of Protection
We have been tracking the deterioration in the technical condition of the major foreign currencies in this weekly note for the past three weeks. The euro’s recovery, off the support we identified here last week near $1.2800, should not overshadow the fact that the dollar’s technical tone remains, on balance, still constructive.
|week ending Oct 2||Commitment of Traders|
|(speculative position in thousand of contracts)|
|Net||Prior Week||Gross Long||Change||Gross Short||Change|
Global Stock Markets (by George Dorgan):
Thanks to good US manufacturing PMIs and a calmer situation in the euro zone crisis, the last week finished quite positive for stocks. Denmark’s OMX could extend its advantage in $ terms against the German DAX on the second and the NASDAQ on the third position for this year. Chinese stocks could recover quite strongly last week, but Japanese ones lacked maybe due to car fabrication issue in China: stock markets of these countries did not hardly any gain this year.
The US, Britain and Canada saw moderate gains.
In the euro area, the Greek Athex continued its rise. Eastern European stock markets rose quite strongly. Poland’s WIG has appreciated even more than the OMX; we consider Poland as emerging economy. The Swiss SMI has achieved 11.3% return in CHF and 10.9% in USD terms.
Russia’s RTS could regain lots of last week’s terrain. Thanks to the RBA rate cut, Australia’s All Ordinary saw gains of 1.7%. Other Asian economies recover more quickly than China does. Turkey, Singapore, Thailand, Pakistan and India see gains over 20% for this year in $ terms. With falling inflation, Turkey has seen enormous progress maybe thanks to the exceptionally low central bank rates last year.
In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina’s markets continued its slide, where investor’s hope is on Mexico and Columbia, because they are more closely connected to the recovery United States and offer higher rates. Stock in developed economies continue to outpace emerging markets, the difference rose from 2.1% to 2.6% return.
Why does this global stock analysis make sense for Forex traders ?
See the details on the Asset Market Model for Forex trading.
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Tags: Asset Market Model,Canadian Dollar,Commitments of Traders,COT,Currency Positioning,FX Positioning,Japanese yen,Marc Chandler,MXN,Net Position,Peso,Speculative Positions,Technical Analysis,U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI