Tag Archive: MXN

FX Daily, April 15: Redemption Monday

The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow, tentative start. The surge of the S&P 500 before the weekend failed to inspire today. Asia markets were mostly firmer, led by Japan, while China, Hong Kong, and Singapore moved lower.

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April Monthly Currency Outlook

Poor economic data and soft inflation saw several central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, take a dovish turn in March. Contrary to expectations that interest rates would rise as the G3 central banks were no longer adding to their balance sheets on a combined basis.

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FX Daily, March 28: Brexit Uncertainty Deepens as Parliament is Divided, while Turkey’s Short Squeeze Falters

The lurch lower in global interest rates continue. The US 10-year yield is at new 15-month lows, five basis points through the average effective Fed funds rate. Late yesterday, it appeared that 10-year German Bund yields slipped below similar Japanese government bond yields for the first time since Q4 16, but when the JGB market opened, it the 10-year JGB yield fell a couple more basis points to minus 10, the most negative since August 2016.

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FX Daily, March 27: Global Bond Rally Continues, Greenback Remains Firm

Overview: The US 10-year yield is trading below the Fed funds target. The two-year yield is trading below the lower end of the Fed funds target range. A warning by New Zealand that the next rate move could be a cut sent New Zealand and Australian yields to new record lows. In Japan, the 10-year yield slipped below the overnight unsecured call rate.

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FX Daily, March 25: Monday Blues: Equities Pare Quarterly Gains

Overview:  Global equities have soured after the US shares dropped the most since very early in the year before the weekend.  Asia's sell-off was led by the 3% decline in Nikkei, while Malaysia fared among the best, surrendering 1%.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off for a fourth session. It lost 1.2% at the end of last week and gapped lower today but stabilizing after the better than expected German IFO survey.

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FX Daily, March 20: Brexit Drama Continues but Fed Moves to Center Stage

Overview: US stocks were not able to hold onto early gains yesterday, and this has helped set the stage for today's heavier bias. Asia Pacific markets were narrowly mixed, with Japan and Korea eking out small gains while China and Taiwan slipped a little. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is threatening to snap a five-day advance as materials, healthcare, and energy leads the profit-taking while communication and real estate are proving a bit more...

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FX Daily, March 18: Equities Advance, Dollar Slips, Key Events Awaited

The eventful week has begun off slowly. After Wall Street's best week in four months underpinned Asian' equities, where all the markets but Thailand, advanced, led by the nearly 2.5% rally in Shanghai. Note that New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 rose to new record highs.

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FX Daily, March 15: Euro and Yen Volatility Slips to New Five-Year Lows on the Ides of March

Overview: The capital markets are calm ahead of the weekend.  Outside of Australia and Thailand, Asia Pacific equities advanced, while European shares are mostly little changed. The regional benchmarks, like the S&P 500 have recouped last week's losses.  Benchmark 10-year yields are little changed on the day, leaving the US 10-year yield virtually unchanged on the week near 2.62%.

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FX Daily, March 14: Another UK Vote, but No Closure

Overview:  The Brexit drama continues to play out, and the Withdrawal Bill that has been twice defeated is ironically not dead yet. Today's vote, in fact, is predicated on another "meaningful vote" before seeking an extension.  Sterling remains firm near yesterday's highs, which were the best levels since last June.

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FX Daily, March 13: Still Waiting for Brexit Climax

The Brexit drama continues to command attention. A vote on leaving without an agreement will be held today, and if that fails, there will be a vote tomorrow on an extension. Meanwhile, the first increase in headline US CPI in four months failed to impress as the year-over-year pace fell to 18-month lows.

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FX Daily, March 11: Greenback Starts New Week Decidedly Mixed, with Brexit Anxiety Weighing on Sterling

Overview:  Asian shares recovered from opening losses to finish mostly higher, with the Shanghai Composite up nearly 2% and India tacking on 1% after the election was called, starting April 11.  European markets, led by energy, communication, and materials sectors, is up about 0.5% through midday. The S&P 500, which closed lower every day last week is looking a little firmer. 

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FX Daily, March 07: EMU Looks to ECB

The ECB meeting is today's highlight. A dovish signal is expected. The euro remains pinned near its lows ahead it. The global equity market rally in January and February is faltering this week. Asian equities were mixed, but the Nikkei eased for the third consecutive session.

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FX Daily, March 05: Dollar Remains Firms as China Cuts Growth Target and Taxes, while EMU PMI Surprises on Upside

Overview:  It is an eventful day, but the capital markets are taking it in stride.  Equity markets are mixed.  Asia may have been weighed down by China's shaving its growth target and announced around CNY2 trillion (~$300 bln) in tax cuts to support the economy, though Chinese stocks edged higher. 

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FX Daily, March 01: Could the Worst be Behind China and Germany? Or Hope Springs Eternal

Overview:  News that MSCI plans to substantially boost China's equity weighting in its indices and a better than expected Caixin manufacturing PMI and some easing of India-Pakistan tensions helped bolster the risk-taking appetite going into the weekend.  This lifting equity and weighing on bonds.  China's CSI 300 rose 2.2% for a 6.5% weekly gain. 

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FX Daily, February 28: Trump Walks Away from North Korea. Should Beijing Worry?

Overview:  News that the US-North Korean summit ended abruptly without an agreement spurred losses in equities and gains in the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. US President Trump willingness to walk away from the talks is important in and of itself, but it also sends a warning not to go all in on a US-China trade agreement that could also sour at the last minute.

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FX Daily, February 27: Dollar Trades Heavily, While Prospects of a Softer and Later Brexit Send Sterling Higher

Overview: As the North American session is about to begin, the markets await developments in the UK House of Commons where a vote is expected today on Prime Minister May's proposal to hold votes on around March 12 on the Withdrawal Bill and no deal. However, perceptions of a reduced likelihood of a no-deal exit continued to fuel sterling gains.

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FX Daily, February 26: Brexit Dilution Lifts Sterling, while Yesterday’s Equity Rally Fades, Powell Awaited

Overview:  The increased likelihood that Brexit is delayed and the possibility of a second referendum is helping lift sterling.  As has been the case for most of the time since the June 2016 referendum, the prospects of a softer and/or later Brexit is understood as sterling positive.  The other key focus is US-Chinese trade. 

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FX Daily, February 21: Aussie Slammed by Dalian Coal Embargo, While Firmer Flash PMI does Euro Little Good

Overview: The US dollar is firm against most major and emerging market currencies. There is more optimism on US-Chinese trade as a series of understandings are drafted, and an extension past March 1 of the tariff freeze is reportedly in the works.

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FX Daily, February 20: US-China Trade and Brexit Dominate Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Overview:  The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, but the strongest currency today is the Chinese yuan, following reports that US wants China to keep the yuan stable and not offset US tariffs with currency depreciation.  The second monthly decline in Japanese exports weighted on the yen.  In the UK, another Labour MP left, while there is speculation that a few Conservatives may defect today. 

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FX Daily, February 19: Investors Need Fresh Incentives

Overview: Activity in the global capital markets is subdued as investors await fresh developments. New wording for the Irish backstop apparently is being drafted. US-China trade talks resume. No decision has been made on US auto tariffs, but European and Japanese officials seem to be playing down the threat. 

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