Tag Archive: Currency Positioning

Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook August 12: Corrective Pressures Dominate

Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman The main tension in the foreign exchange market is between positions adjusting pressures, which are US dollar negative, and widely held ideas that the trajectory of growth and interest rate differentials favor the US, which is dollar positive. There are some important economic data due …

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Net Speculative Position and Technical Outlook: A Week of Fundamentals

Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman Fundamental considerations are likely to dominate technical factors in the week ahead. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the European Central Bank meet. The PMIs are released. The first estimate of Q2 US GDP, July auto sales and the monthly employment will also be …

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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Correction at Hand?

Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman   The US dollar rose against all the major currencies in the past week.  It seems clear that the greenback’s gains were not a reflection of domestic developments, though it is true that US data stands in stark contrast with nearly every other major country. …

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Forecast, Week March 04: King Dollar Returns?

Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman The US dollar rose against all the major currencies in the past week.  It seems clear that the greenback’s gains were not a reflection of domestic developments, though it is true that US data stands in stark contrast with nearly every other major country.   …

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Forecast, Week February 17

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The official talk around the G7 statement and the G20 meeting generated a great deal of needless noise in the foreign exchange room. It is almost like a librarian yelling “Quiet”.   It may be more disruptive than the initial noise. With the meetings out of the way, we expect …

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Forecast, Week February9

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   Last week the euro was the weakest of the major currencies and the recently beaten up sterling and yen were the strongest.   A similar pattern was also evident in the dollar-bloc.  The New Zealand dollar had been the strongest and last week had was the weakest, with the …

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Forecast, Week February4

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   The main drivers of the foreign exchange market have strengthened.  This means that the current trends, especially euro strength and yen, sterling and dollar bloc weakness are likely to persist.  The recent price action will likely reinforce the trader behavior of buying euros on pullbacks and selling into bounces …

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Net Speculative Positions, Week January 28

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   It is difficult to talk about the US dollar’s performance over the past couple of weeks.  There has been a key divergence.  The dollar has been trading higher against most currencies except the euro and those currencies, like the Swiss franc or the Scandis, that move in the euro’s …

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Net Speculative Positions, Week January 21

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The technical tone of the major foreign currencies deteriorated in recent days.  It appears to be a cascading effect.  Favorite risk-on currencies, like the dollar-bloc, failed to participate in the move against the greenback.  The Swiss franc took the dubious honor of being the weakest currency last week, losing 2.2% …

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Net Speculative Positions, Week January 14

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   There have been some large moves in the foreign exchange market in recent days.  The euro posted its largest rally in four months last week.  The yen has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since June 2010 and extended the declining streak to nine consecutive weeks, something …

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Net Speculative Positions, Week November 19

  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   The US Dollar Index bottomed on September 14, the day after QE3+ was announced.  It reached a 2-month high before the weekend.  It has now retraced half of the ground lost from ECB President Draghi’s pledge to “to do whatever it takes” through hints, and then delivery, of …

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Net Speculative Positions, Global Stock Markets, Week October 29

  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   The US Dollar Index reached its best level in more than six weeks on Friday.  Yet it managed to only close a couple of ticks higher, as if warning short-term participants against ideas that a breakout is at hand.  This also appears to be the message of the …

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Net Speculative Positions, Global Stock Markets, Week October 22

  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   Our big picture view is that the US dollar is carving out an important bottom, after selling off in Q3 as policy makers moved to reduce the extreme tail risks. The position adjustment that inspired among investors appears to have largely run its course.This bottoming of the dollar is …

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The Three Main Forex strategies: Trend Following, Mean Reversion and the Carry trade. Is the Carry Trade Dead ?

  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week October 15    Market participants have to confront a stark asymmetry.  There are many ways to lose money, but there appears to be only three ways to make money. Nearly all strategies seem to come down to some variant …

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week October 8

  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The Price of Protection We have been tracking the deterioration in the technical condition of the major foreign currencies in this weekly note for the past three weeks.  The euro’s recovery, off the support we identified here last week near $1.2800, should not overshadow the fact that the dollar’s …

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week of October 1

  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   If the third quarter was about the reduction of tail-risk by official actions, then Q4 will be about the limitations of the policy response. It will pose a challenging investment climate after what turned out to be a favorable performance in Q3. Equities generally did well. The US …

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 24

  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The days ahead will help clarify whether the US dollar’s somewhat firmer tone last week was simply corrective in nature, before a new leg lower, or the carving out of a bottom of a downtrend that began in June against most of the major currencies and July for the …

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 17

  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   Nearly every development in recent days has been embraced by the foreign exchange market as a reason to continue to do what it has been doing since late July, and that is to sell the dollar.    The German Constitutional Court ruling, allowing the European Stability Mechanism to …

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 10

  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Key policy makers are preparing new efforts to address the deterioration of financial and economic conditions.  This is seen reducing tail risks, which allowed the rally in risk assets to be extended, and undermined the dollar.  China is providing new fiscal support.  The ECB announced its new Outright Market …

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Outlook, Global Markets Ahead of Eventful Week September 3rd

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   The week ahead kicks off what we expect to be a period of intense event risk. The combination of positioning, judging from the futures market and anecdotal reports, and the low implied volatility in currencies and equity markets warn of heightened risk in the period ahead. The week begins …

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