# Corona’s Exponential Curve Slope Tracking, March 20

NEXT UPDATE on March24, with March 23 data.

### The Essence: Slop of the Curve

Total World: Doubling of active cases every 3 days.
Tendency Rising.

U.S., Spain, Germany, U.K., Switzerland
Double in less than 2 days:

France: Double in 3 days.

Italy: Reduced slope to doubling in 4 or 5 days.

China, South Korea: Curve is flat.
Iran: Worst slope increase is over at least according to official figures.

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### Exponential Growth and Corona

The more mathematically versed folks under us have understood that it the slope (or steepness / derivation) of the Corona expansion curve is important.

The following statistics is based on the Worldometer data, that rather shows the “first dimension”; we however, focus on the “second dimension”, the slope of the curve.
This is far more useful, because for such exponential curve, the slope is key.The video explains the details.

### Exponential Growth

It took the Corona Virus 20 days to grow from 100 to 1000
and 13 days to grow to 1000 to 10000.

Attention here: The Y axis has a logarithmic scale.

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### Formulae Exponential Curve

ΔNd  is the number of new cases per day.

#### Basic Reproduction Number

E is the number of people one person typically infects, the so-called basic reproduction number.
In Wikipedia it is called R0
According to some initial research cited in Wikipedia (e.g. here or here), this number is between 1.4 and 3.9 for Covid19. This would be inferior to the one of SARS, the 2003 outbreak, which had values between 2 and 5.

However this value is highly unprobable, given that SARS only affected 8000 people. Moreover, the high variance of the values are worrying: Minimum 1.4 and maximum 3.9.

#### Probability for infection

p is the probability that this infection happens from one person to another.

Key for policy makers is to contain the number of new transmission E*p.
This is mostly done  using measures like

school-closing, social distancing, hand disinfection and lock-downs.

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### Inflection point from exponential to logistic curve

The second derivation of the formula leads to the inflection point, where the curve converts to a logistic curve.

Reasons are :

1. E*p gets reduced thanks to the measures above,
for example from 1.15 to 1.05
2. Most people cannot be infected anymore because they have had the disease already, the so-called herd immunity. According to the German Robert Koch Institute this can take up to 2 years.

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#### Explanations for the table below

We track average (ΔNd  / N) over 3 days.

ΔNare new cases.

Nd corresponds to the active cases, the ones that may transmit the virus.

When ΔNd  / Nd  is bigger than the previous days, this means that the slope of the curve increases, hence implicitly the growth factor ΔNd  / Nd-1

### Key Points as of March 20

• Massive rise in slope in the United State, Germany and Switzerland
• But also in Brazil, Pakistan and Turkey.

 Country Total  Cases Latest Period ΔNd  / Nd  Average New Cases  in% of Active Cases  per Day Previous Periods ΔNd  / Nd Average New Cases in % of Active Cases per Day Curve Trend Curve Slope Tendency New Cases last 3 days March 18-20 ΔNd  / Nd March 15-17 March 12-14 March 08-11 March 04-07 Total World 275,557 77379 34% 18% 19% 11% 8% Double in 2-3 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods China 80,967 86 0.24% 0.16% 0.07% 0.16% 0.42% Flat or Flattening Flat or Near Flat Italy 47,021 15,515 29% 19% 27% 32% 37% Double in 4 to 5 days Slope Mostly Rising Spain 21,571 9,745 57% 32% 67% 96% 52% Double in less than 2 days Slope Rising Again After Slowing Germany 19,848 10,481 77% 35% 48% 35% 84% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs nearly all periods Iran 19,644 3,475 15% 15% 22% 20% 48% Double in 5 to 10 days Only Recently Rising USA 19,383 12,944 158% 44% 41% 54% 79% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs nearly all periods France 12,612 4,882 37% 25% 33% 36% 94% Double in 2-3 days Rising vs nearly all periods S. Korea 8,652 332 2% 1% 1% 3% 92% Flat or Flattening Flat or Near Flat Switzerland 5,615 2,873 71% 34% 37% 36% 94% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs nearly all periods UK 3,983 2,033 62% 25% 53% 76% 92% Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Netherlands 2,994 1,289 45% 26% 31% 42% 179% Double in 2-3 days Rising vs nearly all periods Austria 2,649 1,317 68% 35% 56% 52% 59% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs nearly all periods Belgium 2,257 1,014 49% 27% 40% 22% 325% Double in 2-3 days Rising vs nearly all periods Norway 1,959 489 15% 11% 25% 76% 93% Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Rising Again After Slowing Sweden 1,639 443 15% 8% 31% 53% 113% Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Rising Again After Slowing Denmark 1,255 278 11% 6% 20% 468% 43% Double in 5 to 10 days Only Recently Rising Canada 1,087 489 69% 50% 46% 24% 33% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs all periods Malaysia 1,030 357 59% 71% 24% 20% 102% Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Portugal 1,020 572 114% 56% 62% 45% 106% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs nearly all periods Japan 1,007 129 7% 4% 11% 12% 17% Double in 10 – 15 days Only Recently Rising Brazil 970 624 139% 43% 63% 43% 213% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs nearly all periods Australia 928 476 73% 31% 40% 26% 39% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs nearly all periods Czechia 833 399 70% 43% 34% 65% 105% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs nearly all periods Diamond  Princess 712 16 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% Flat or Flattening Rising vs nearly all periods Israel 705 368 65% 25% 34% 82% 30% Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Ireland 683 391 103% 43% 68% 32% 213% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs nearly all periods Turkey 670 572 3178% 511% 167% New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Pakistan 501 254 292% 248% 24% 65% 5% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Greece 495 108 17% 24% 43% 13% 211% Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Falling or Constant Luxembourg 484 344 229% 59% 210% 33% 50% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Qatar 470 28 3% 11% 10% 521% 13% Flat or Flattening Slope Falling or Constant Finland 450 128 20% 15% 95% 56% 50% Double in 5 to 10 days Only Recently Rising Chile 434 233 127% 77% 55% 90% 100% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Ecuador 426 315 389% 102% 22% 5% 25% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Poland 425 187 72% 52% 77% 104% New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Iceland 409 162 34% 18% 30% 18% 98% Double in 2-3 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Singapore 385 119 37% 17% 14% 21% 22% Double in 2-3 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Indonesia 369 197 79% 31% 67% 188% 25% Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Saudi Arabia 344 173 57% 22% 44% 158% 150% Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Slovenia 341 66 12% 17% 73% 94% New Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Falling or Constant Thailand 322 145 105% 69% 32% 13% 15% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Romania 308 91 27% 27% 62% 85% 75% Double in 4 to 5 days Slope Falling or Constant Bahrain 298 57 13% 6% 4% 35% 18% Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Mostly Rising Egypt 285 89 37% 36% 51% 6% 1150% Double in 2-3 days Slope Falling or Constant Estonia 283 58 17% 32% 206% 15% 100% Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Falling or Constant Peru 263 146 128% 69% 64% 29% 2% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Hong Kong 256 88 51% 15% 8% 8% 3% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Russia 253 139 91% 36% 76% 10% 300% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods India 249 106 42% 18% 20% 23% 233% Double in 2-3 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Philippines 230 43 14% 25% 46% 358% New Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Falling or Constant Iraq 208 54 24% 20% 27% 9% 17% Double in 4 to 5 days Slope Falling or Constant South Africa 202 117 103% 41% 64% 138% New Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Panama 200 131 125% 31% 133% New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Lebanon 177 53 20% 12% 18% 31% 29% Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Mostly Rising Mexico 164 82 124% 85% 150% 10% 0% Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Kuwait 159 29 10% 9% 15% 5% 2% Double in 10 – 15 days Slope Falling or Constant Argentina 158 79 61% 26% 48% 31% 200% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods San Marino 151 32 12% 7% 22% 44% 36% Double in 5 to 10 days Only Recently Rising Colombia 145 80 121% 65% 48% 200% New Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising UAE 140 27 14% 14% 6% 19% New Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Falling or Constant Slovakia 137 40 30% 40% 113% 58% New Double in 2-3 days Slope Falling or Constant Armenia 136 58 107% 111% 567% 0% 0% Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Serbia 135 63 46% 19% 94% 275% New Double in 2-3 days Only Recently Rising Taiwan 135 58 60% 25% 6% 3% 3% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Croatia 130 61 55% 27% 35% 15% 8% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Bulgaria 127 46 39% 34% 189% 63% New Double in 2-3 days Only Recently Rising Costa Rica 113 63 78% 46% 36% 300% New Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Latvia 111 51 68% 45% 59% New 0% Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Uruguay 110 81 675% 208% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Algeria 94 33 46% 33% 28% 1% 34% Double in 2-3 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Vietnam 91 25 23% 12% 23% 113% New Double in 4 to 5 days Only Recently Rising Bosnia 89 55 87% 21% 67% 33% New Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Morocco 86 42 88% 54% 80% 50% 25% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Hungary 85 35 40% 23% 44% 40% New Double in 2-3 days Slope Falling or Constant Jordan 85 37 New New 0% 0% 25% Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Faeroe Islands 80 33 122% 141% 117% 0% New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Brunei 78 22 18% 13% 88% New New Double in 5 to 10 days Only Recently Rising North Macedonia 76 45 125% 50% 29% 33% 50% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Andorra 75 36 1200% 1267% 0% 0% 0% Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Cyprus 75 26 33% 29% 111% New New Double in 2-3 days Only Recently Rising Sri Lanka 73 29 107% 126% 267% New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Dominican Republic 72 51 155% 30% 40% 38% 25% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Albania 70 15 14% 15% 55% New New Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Falling or Constant Belarus 69 33 46% 13% 100% 13% 125% Double in 2-3 days Slope Falling or Constant Lithuania 69 43 179% 71% 67% 50% 0% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Moldova 66 36 100% 50% 100% 50% New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Venezuela 65 32 533% 517% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Malta 64 26 51% 39% 67% 25% New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Tunisia 54 29 54% 13% 52% 150% 0% Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Kazakhstan 52 19 106% 150% New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant New Zealand 52 40 190% 24% 13% 0% 100% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Cambodia 51 18 100% 144% 67% 25% New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Guadeloupe 51 45 500% 33% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Oman 48 15 50% 47% 4% 4% 10% Double in 2-3 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Palestine 48 7 6% 3% 9% 14% New Double in 10 – 15 days Only Recently Rising Senegal 47 20 35% 11% 189% 0% 25% Double in 2-3 days Slope Falling or Constant Azerbaijan 44 10 30% 58% 17% 6% 50% Double in 2-3 days Slope Falling or Constant Georgia 44 10 11% 4% 8% 21% 83% Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Mostly Rising Ukraine 41 27 450% 183% 67% 0% 0% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Burkina Faso 40 25 417% 217% 0% New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising R茅union 38 29 161% 17% 167% New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Uzbekistan 33 22 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Martinique 32 17 57% 17% 78% New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Liechtenstein 28 9 75% 125% 100% 0% 0% Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Cameroon 27 17 283% 133% 0% 0% New Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Afghanistan 24 2 6% 33% 19% 19% New Double in 10 – 15 days Slope Falling or Constant Honduras 24 16 178% 56% 17% New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Cuba 21 16 133% 8% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Bangladesh 20 10 111% 56% 22% New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Jamaica 19 7 29% 17% 100% New New Double in 4 to 5 days Only Recently Rising DRC 18 15 250% 17% 33% New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Paraguay 18 9 43% 10% 13% 100% New Double in 2-3 days Slope Mostly Rising Macao 17 4 New New New New 0% Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Rwanda 17 10 333% 200% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Bolivia 16 4 13% 7% 133% New New Double in 5 to 10 days Only Recently Rising Ghana 16 9 150% 83% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising French Guiana 15 4 19% 19% 13% New New Double in 5 to 10 days Slope Falling or Constant Guyana 15 8 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Guam 14 9 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Montenegro 14 12 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Puerto Rico 14 9 100% 22% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Maldives 13 0 0% 10% 8% 75% New Flat or Flattening Flat or Near Flat Channel Islands 12 6 67% 33% 17% New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Guatemala 12 4 133% 233% New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Mauritius 12 12 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Nigeria 12 9 150% 17% 0% 25% 0% Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods French Polynesia 11 8 89% 0% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Monaco 11 2 33% 117% 33% 0% 0% Double in 2-3 days Slope Falling or Constant Gibraltar 10 7 New New New 0% New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Ethiopia 9 3 100% 167% New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Ivory Coast 9 5 167% 100% 0% New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Mostly Rising Togo 9 8 267% 0% 0% 0% New Double in less than 2 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Trinidad and Tobago 9 4 67% 50% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Kenya 7 3 100% 133% New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Mayotte 7 4 133% 67% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Seychelles 7 3 50% 33% New New New Double in 2-3 days Only Recently Rising Barbados 6 4 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Equatorial Guinea 6 5 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Kyrgyzstan 6 6 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Mongolia 6 1 33% 133% 0% New New Double in 2-3 days Slope Falling or Constant Tanzania 6 5 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Aruba 5 2 33% 17% New New New Double in 2-3 days Only Recently Rising Bahamas 4 3 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Gabon 4 3 100% 0% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Saint Martin 4 2 33% 0% 0% New New Double in 2-3 days Slope Mostly Rising Suriname 4 3 100% 0% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising CAR 3 2 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Cayman Islands 3 2 67% 0% New New New Double in less than 2 days Only Recently Rising Congo 3 2 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Curacao 3 3 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Madagascar 3 3 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Namibia 3 1 17% 0% New New New Double in 5 to 10 days Only Recently Rising St. Barth 3 0 0% 67% 0% New New Flat or Flattening Flat or Near Flat U.S. Virgin Islands 3 1 33% 33% New New New Double in 2-3 days Slope Falling or Constant Benin 2 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Bermuda 2 2 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Bhutan 2 1 33% 0% 0% 0% New Double in 2-3 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods Greenland 2 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Guinea 2 1 33% 0% New New New Double in 2-3 days Only Recently Rising Haiti 2 2 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Isle of Man 2 2 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Liberia 2 0 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Mauritania 2 1 33% 0% New New New Double in 2-3 days Only Recently Rising New Caledonia 2 2 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Nicaragua 2 2 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Saint Lucia 2 0 0% 33% New New New Flat or Flattening Flat or Near Flat Sudan 2 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Zambia 2 2 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Angola 1 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Antigua and Barbuda 1 0 0% 0% New New New Flat or Flattening Flat or Near Flat Cabo Verde 1 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Chad 1 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Djibouti 1 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant El Salvador 1 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Eswatini 1 0 0% 0% New New New Flat or Flattening Flat or Near Flat Fiji 1 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Gambia 1 0 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Montserrat 1 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Nepal 1 0 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Niger 1 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Papua New Guinea 1 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Sint Maarten 1 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Somalia 1 0 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant St. Vincent Grenadines 1 0 0% 0% New New New Flat or Flattening Flat or Near Flat Vatican City 1 0 0% 0% 0% 0% New Flat or Flattening Flat or Near Flat Zimbabwe 1 1 New New New New New Double in less than 2 days Slope Falling or Constant Total: 275,557 77379 34% 18% 19% 11% 8% Double in 2-3 days Rising vs (nearly) all periods
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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