Tag Archive: newsletter

Merger Mania and the Kings of Debt

2018-06-24

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2018-06-24

Corporate Debt
Another Early Warning Siren Goes Off. Our friend Jonathan Tepper of research house Variant Perception (check out their blog to see some of their excellent work) recently pointed out to us that the volume of mergers and acquisitions has increased rather noticeably lately. Some color on this was provided in an article published by Reuters in late May, “Global M&A hits record $2 trillion in the year to date”, which inter alia contained the...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review (VIDEO)

2018-06-24

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2018-06-24

Information and opinions about the economy and markets from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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Executives still paid exorbitant salaries at big Swiss firms

2018-06-23

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2018-06-23

The gap between the top-paid and least-paid employees of the 39 largest companies in Switzerland remains high, despite a 2013 vote against excessive executive pay. According to Switzerland's largest trade union, Unia, in 2017 the average ratio between top and bottom in these companies was 1:143.

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Gresham’s Law and Bitcoin

2018-06-23

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2018-06-23

Bolivar/U.S. Dollar, 2010-2018
Rather suddenly, the state issued fiat currency bolivar lost 99% of its purchasing power. Gresham's law holds that "bad money drives out good money," meaning that given a choice of currencies (broadly speaking, "money" that serves as a store of value and a means of exchange), people use depreciating "bad" to buy goods and services and hoard "good" money that is appreciating or holding its value.

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Russia Buys 600,000 oz Of Gold In May After Dumping Half Of US Treasuries In April

2018-06-23

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2018-06-23

Russian Gold Reserves 2006-2018
Russia adds another 600,000 oz to it’s gold reserves in May. Holdings of U.S. government debt slashed in half to $48.7 billion in April. ‘Keeping money safe’ from U.S. and Trump – Danske Bank. Trump increasing the national debt by another 6% to $21.1 trillion in less than 18 months. Asian nations accumulating gold as shield against dollar devaluation and trade wars.

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Swiss residential property risks growing in buy to let, according to Swiss National Bank

2018-06-22

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2018-06-22

On 21 June 2018, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced its decision on interest rates, which it left unchanged. Switzerland’s economy has been sailing into the headwinds of a strong currency since the SNB scrapped its exchange rate cap in January 2015 and the Swiss franc briefly went beyond parity with the euro.

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FX Daily, June 22: BOE Spurs Dollar Pullback

2018-06-22

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2018-06-22

The Bank of England's hawkish hold yesterday, spurred by three dissents in favor of an immediate hike, changed the near-term dynamics in the foreign exchange market.  Both the euro and sterling fell to new lows for the year before reversing higher.  Yesterday's gains are being extended today. 

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“Perfect Environment For Gold” As Fed To Weaken Dollar and Create Inflation

2018-06-22

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2018-06-22

Rising interest rates are positive for gold
“Fed is tightening into weakness and will eventually over-tighten and cause a recession”. “More inflation and a weaker dollar” is “the perfect environment for gold”. Geopolitical shocks will return when least expected and gold will soar in flight to safety.

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Rise in Bund yield will be limited

2018-06-22

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2018-06-22

Euro Area Composite PMI and Germany 10-year Bund Yield, 2015 - 2018
With the faltering in euro area business sentiment since February, the Italy-led sell-off of risk assets at the end of May and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish meeting in June, we are revising our year-end forecast for the German 10-year Bund yield from 0.9% to 0.6%, as we hinted we might do in a previous note.

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Switzerland has most expensive food and drinks in Europe

2018-06-22

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2018-06-22

Switzerland has been ranked the second-most expensive European country behind Iceland for consumer goods, which are 59% higher than the European Union average. Food and non-alcoholic drinks are particularly pricey.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review:

2018-06-22

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2018-06-22

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate 1990-2018
Is the rate hiking cycle almost done? Not the question on everyone’s minds right now so a good time to ask it, I think. A couple of items caught my attention recently that made me at least think about the possibility.  There has been for some time now a large short position held by speculators in the futures market for Treasuries.

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Andréa M. Maechler: Introductory remarks, news conference

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

Implied Financial Market Volatility 2017-2018
I will begin my remarks with an overview of the situation on the financial markets, before giving an update on the status of the reforms regarding reference interest rates. And in closing I would like to say a few words about our branch office in Singapore, which is celebrating its fifth anniversary. Situation on the financial markets Let me start with the developments on the financial markets.

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Introductory remarks by Fritz Zurbrügg

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

Fritz Zurbrugg
In my remarks today, I will present the key findings from this year’s Financial Stability Report, published by the Swiss National Bank this morning. In the first part of my speech, I will talk about the big banks, before going on, in the second part, to outline our current assessment of the situation at domestically focused banks.

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Thomas Jordan: Introductory remarks, news conference

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

Thomas Jordan
It is a pleasure for me to welcome you to the Swiss National Bank’s news conference. I will begin by explaining our monetary policy decision and our assessment of the economic situation. I would also like to briefly touch on the rejection of the sovereign money initiative by the people and the cantons as well as a publication marking the tenth anniversary of the SNB’s educational programme, Iconomix.

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FX Daily, June 21: Dollar Driven Higher

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

The half-hearted and shallow attempts by the currencies to recover appear to be emboldening the dollar bulls today,  The greenback is higher against all major and emerging market currencies today.  Demand for dollars is strong enough to offset the broader risk-off environment that is pulling stocks and core yields lower that is usually supportive of the yen. 

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Swiss Trade Balance May 2018: Foreign trade overcomes stagnation

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

Switzerland Trade Balance, May 2018
After stagnating in previous months, exports rose in May 2018. Seasonally adjusted exports rose 0.9% in one month. Imports were more dynamic, at + 3.8%. Chemistry-pharma and the vehicle sector generated 90% of growth in both traffic directions. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.3 billion francs.

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Driving licence loses attraction for young Swiss

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

The number of people who applied for a Swiss driving licence dropped by 2% last year, with applications from 18- to 24-year-olds down 3%. Some 5.8 million people owned a driving licence for cars in 2017, the Federal Roads Officeexternal link said on Tuesday. This 1% increase was due not only to new drivers but also to foreign licences being exchanged for Swiss ones and natural population growth, it explained.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

Global Asset Allocation Update
The risk budget is unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds and risk assets is evenly split. There are changes this month within the asset classes. How far are we from the end of this cycle? When will the next recession arrive and more importantly when will stocks and other markets start to anticipate a slowdown?

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In Gold, Silver and Bitcoin We Trust? Goldnomics Podcast with Ronald-Peter Stoeferle

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

In Gold, Silver and Bitcoin We Trust? Goldnomics Podcast (Episode 5) interview with Ronald-Peter Stoferle. We interview our friend Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, partner in Incrementum in Liechtenstein and author of the must read, annual gold report ‘In Gold We Trust’ in this the fifth episode of the Goldnomics Podcast.

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The Fed’s “Inflation Target” is Impoverishing American Workers

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

Redefined Terms and Absurd Targets. At one time, the Federal Reserve’s sole mandate was to maintain stable prices and to “fight inflation.”  To the Fed, the financial press, and most everyone else “inflation” means rising prices instead of its original and true definition as an increase in the money supply.  Rising prices are a consequence – a very painful consequence – of money printing.

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