Tag Archive: newsletter

USD/CHF technical analysis: 0.9912/15, 4H 200MA limit immediate upside

2019-10-23

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2019-10-23

USD/CHF 4-hour chart
USD/CHF struggles to hold the latest recovery gains. A seven-week-old rising trend line, 50% Fibonacci retracement acts as the closest upside barrier. 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement offers adjacent support. The USD/CHF pair’s recovery from 0.9840 seems to lack momentum as the quote witnesses a pullback to 0.9900 ahead of the European session opening on Wednesday.

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Japan Tobacco staff protest over job cuts

2019-10-23

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2019-10-23

Almost 100 Japan Tobacco International (JTI) staff protested outside their Geneva headquarters on Tuesday against job cuts. Around a quarter of the Geneva workforce are affected by major restructuring plans. Last month the multinational firm behind cigarette brands like Winston, Camel and Benson & Hedges confirmed restructuring plans and job cuts. Some 268 posts out of 1,100 are due to be cut at the Geneva headquarters.

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A New Stage of the US-China Conflict

2019-10-23

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2019-10-23

The US-China diplomatic relationship may be entering a new stage. The balance of power between the key players – Trump, China, the US Congress, and the Democrats – is changing and their roles are being reshuffled. This might be enough to break the endless cycle of agreements and re-escalations. In short, we think both Trump and Chinese officials have a greater incentive to reach a deal (or at least not to escalate) this time around.

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August TIC: Trying To Get Collateral Out of the Shadows

2019-10-23

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2019-10-23

US TIC, 2013-2019
The second most frustrating aspect of trying to analyze global shadow money is how the term “shadow” really applies in this case. It’s not really because banks are being sneaky, desperately maintaining their cover for any number of illicit activities they are regularly accused of undertaking. The money stays in the shadows for the simple reason central bankers don’t know their jobs; even after a somehow Global Financial Crisis in 2008, they don’t...

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FX Daily, October 22: Trudeau will Lead a Coalition Government in Canada, while the UK’s Johnson Fights Another Day

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

Overview: Bismark is said to have warned that laws were like sausages, and to respect them, one ought not to see how they are made. The UK had a non-binding referendum more than three years ago, and although it won by 52%-48% and the party leaders committed to adhering to the results, it still cannot figure out how to leave.

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2019-10-22 – Swiss National Bank opens SNB Forum for interested expert audience

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

Today, the Swiss National Bank is opening the SNB Forum on the ground floor of its premises at Fraumünsterstrasse 8 in Zurich. This has been created as part of the mult i-yearrenovation of this building, and is open to the public.

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Syngenta commits $2 billion to tackle climate change

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

The Swiss-based agricultural firm has set aside $2 billion (around CHF1.97 billion) over five years to reduce emissions from agricultural practices. The company, which has come under fire for profiting from selling hazardous pesticides abroad, also announced on Tuesday that it will be reducing its carbon footprint by 50% by 2030.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: 0.9900 is the level to beat for buyers

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

USD/CHF hourly chart
USD/CHF seesaws around late-Friday tops. 100-HMA, Friday’s high will restrict the latest pullback. September month low can please sellers during the declines. Failure to extend the latest recovery seems to portray the USD/CHF pair’s weakness as it trades around 0.9870 amid pre-European session on Tuesday.

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Swiss remain the richest in the world

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

The Swiss have pulled away from the pack when it comes to assets per adult, remaining on average the wealthiest citizens in the world. In concrete terms, by mid-2019 assets per adult in Switzerland stood at $564,650 (CHF555,000), an increase of $17,790 over the previous year, according to the tenth Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, published on Monday.

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The Dollar-driven Cage Match: Xi vs Li in China With Nowhere Else To Go

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

China Industrial Production, 1998-2019
China’s growing troubles go way back long before trade wars ever showed up. It was Euro$ #2 that set this course in motion, and then Euro$ #3 which proved the country’s helplessness. It proved it not just to anyone willing to honestly evaluate the situation, it also established the danger to one key faction of Chinese officials.

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Prying Open the Overton Window

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

Acceleration of Technological Adoption Curves, 1867-2017
If you're truly interested in finding solutions to humanity's pressing problems, then start helping us pry open the Overton Window. The Overton Window describes the spectrum of concepts, policies and approaches that can be publicly discussed without being ridiculed or marginalized as "too radical," "unworkable," "crazy," etc. 

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Wealth Accumulation Is Becoming Impossible, Report 20 Oct

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

Gold and Silver Prices
We talk a lot about the falling interest rate, the too-low interest rate, the near-zero interest rate, the zero interest rate, and the negative interest rate. Hat Tip to Switzerland, where Credit Suisse is now going to pay depositors -0.85%. That is, if you lend your francs to this bank, they take some of them every year. Almost 1% of them.

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FX Daily, October 21: Dollar Soft, but Stage is being Set for Turn Around Tuesday

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

Overview: The UK's departure from the EU remains up in the air as a new attempt to pass the necessary legislation through Parliament continues today. Many market participants seem to remain optimistic that Prime Minister Johnson's plan will ultimately succeed. After slipping to $1.2875 initially, sterling briefly pushed through $1.30, which had held it back last week.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: 0.9900/10 challenges recovery from 61.8 percent Fibo.

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

USD/CHF 4-hour chart
USD/CHF bounces off from a multi-week low. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, late-September bottoms can question the recent upside. The USD/CHF pair’s latest recovery is less likely to prevail for long unless clearing near-term key resistance area. The quote seesaws around 0.9860 by the press time of the pre-European session on Monday.

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Swiss railways see more demand for train trips abroad

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

Travellers in Switzerland are increasingly taking to the rails for trips abroad, with the Swiss Federal Railways reporting a 10% increase in demand for international journeys and 25% more demand for trips by night train. According to a report in the NZZ am Sonntag newspaper, demand for night train journeys especially increased on stretches between Switzerland and the German cities of Berlin and Hamburg, while overall demand for international trips...

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead Excluding Brexit

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

I feel a bit like the proverbial guy that asks, "Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?" in trying to discuss the week ahead without knowing the results of the UK Parliament's decision on the new deal negotiated between Prime Minister Johnson and the EU.   I will write a separate note about Brexit before the Asian open. However, there are several other developments next week that will help shape the investment climate.

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What We’ve Lost

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

This is only a partial list of what we've lost to globalism, cheap credit and the Tyranny of Price which generates the Landfill Economy. A documentary on the decline of small farms and the rural economy in France highlights what we've lost in the decades-long rush to globalize and financialize everything on the planet-- what we call Neoliberalism, the ideology of turning everything into a global market controlled by The Tyranny of Price and cheap...

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

We are beginning to become more constructive on EM.  The main trigger for some optimism is the shifting US-China dynamic. In our view, the partial trade deal reveals weakness on the part of the US.  Reports suggest China will begin pushing for all existing tariffs to be dropped as part of Phase 2, which would be very positive for EM.  That is still likely months away but this shifting dynamic bears watching. 

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America’s Road Map to $40 Trillion National Debt by 2028

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

Planning on Your Behalf. Watch out! At this very moment, professional economists of all stripes are making plans on your behalf. They are dreaming and scheming new and innovative ways to spend your money long before you have earned it. While you are busy at the gristmill, grinding away for clients and customers, claims are being laid upon your life.

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5G tests Switzerland’s limits on cybersecurity

2019-10-20

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2019-10-20

As more governments mull the risks of working with foreign vendors of 5G networks, eyes are on Switzerland as one of the technology’s early adopters. Will the Swiss take a heavier hand in restricting foreign providers like Huawei in the 5G supply chain or let the market decide? In a grim but not-so-far-fetched scenarioexternal link, a hacker attacks a 5G antenna, sending malicious signals to millions of connected devices.

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