Tag Archive: newsletter

Good Friday, bad Gotthard traffic

2019-04-21

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2019-04-21

Long queues have been reported at the Gotthard tunnel in central Switzerland as holidaymakers head south for the Easter break. The traffic jam at the northern end of the tunnel stands at 12 kilometres, with a wait of almost two hours, the Touring Club of Switzerlandexternal link (TCS) said on Friday morning.

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China: Q1 growth beats expectations

2019-04-21

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2019-04-21

Growth in Chinese Real GDP 2013-2019
The Chinese economy grew at a faster rate than expected in the first quarter as policy stimulus effects kick in.The National Bureau of Statistics of China published Q1 GDP figures along with some key economic indicators for March. The data generally surprised on the upside. While we had previously flagged the upside risk to our earlier GDP forecast following the rebound in PMIs and strong credit numbers, the latest data releases still surprised to...

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Rail bosses worried over train punctuality

2019-04-20

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2019-04-20

Passengers Boarding a Train in Bern Station
The national railway operator, Swiss Federal Railways, has set up a taskforce to look into train punctuality - currently 90.1% - after the rate slipped slightly last year. News of the taskforce was broken by CH-Media groupexternal link and confirmed by the Federal Railwaysexternal link to the Swiss public broadcaster SRFexternal link. The group, made up of experienced management members, is to report back in six weeks’ time.

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Business cycle could define Trump’s re-election chances

2019-04-20

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2019-04-20

Trump's Approval Rates are Stable, 2016-2019
President Trump’s focus on getting re-elected in November 2020 may have implications for his economic policy choices.As we move closer to the 2020 presidential election, Trump has been blatantly leaning on the Federal Reserve to be more accommodative and has been trying to appoint nominees who share his preference for loose monetary policy to the Fed board.

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FX Daily, April 19: Holiday Note

2019-04-19

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2019-04-19

Many financial centers are closed today. These include Australia, India, most European markets, and the US. In Asia, equity markets that were open moved higher. The Nikkei, which gapped higher on Monday, rose 0.5% today for a 1.5% gain on the week. China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.6%, lifting the weekly increase to 2.6%.

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Syngenta slammed for hazardous pesticide profits

2019-04-19

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2019-04-19

A United Nations representative is demanding action following reports that Swiss crop science company Syngenta is selling highly hazardous pesticides abroad. “There is an urgent need to end this exploitation of lower standards of protection. This is a morally and ethically unjustifiable situation,” Baskut Tuncak, United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights and toxics, told Swiss NGO Public Eye on Wednesday.

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China’s Blowout IP, Frugal Stimulus, and Sinking Capex

2019-04-19

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2019-04-19

China Industrial Production 1999-2019
It had been 55 months, nearly five years since China’s vast and troubled industrial sector had seen growth better than 8%. Not since the first sparks of the rising dollar, Euro$ #3’s worst, had Industrial Production been better than that mark. What used to be a floor had seemingly become an unbreakable ceiling over this past half a decade. According to Chinese estimates, IP in March 2019 was 8.5% more than it was in March 2018. That was far more...

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FX Daily, April 18: EMU Disappointment Lifts the Dollar

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

Overview: A bout of profit-taking in equities began in the US yesterday and has carried through Asia and Europe today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the first time in five days, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a six-day advance.  The Nikkei gapped higher to start the week and a gap low tomorrow would undermine the technical outlook.

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Pound to Swiss Franc rates: UK housing price growth hits 6 year low

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

We have seen a fairly stagnant market following the Brexit extension until 31st October. Although a key factor on GBP/CHF economic date releases will now gain back some of their impact. Yesterday saw the ease of House Price Growth data and figures dropped to a six year low. The average house price of across the UK grew by 0.6%, but property prices in the capital fell by 3.8%.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q1 2019: Foreign trade at a high level

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), Q1 2019
Swiss foreign trade saw a mixed evolution during the first half of 2019. In seasonally adjusted terms, exports fell slightly, still remaining above the 57 billion franc mark. Imports, on the other hand, continued to rise (+1 , 0%) to reach a record level of 51.2 billion francs. The trade balance closes with a surplus of 6.2 billion francs.

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Credit Suisse to take controlling stake in its Chinese joint venture

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

Swiss bank Credit Suisse has agreed with Founder Securities to increase its shareholding to a majority stake in its Beijing-based Credit Suisse Founder Securities (CSFS) joint venture. As a result of the agreement, Credit Suisse’s shareholding is expected to increase from 33.3% to 51% by way of capital injection. The shareholding of Founder Securities in CSFS will reduce to 49%.

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The Next Financial Crisis Won’t Be Caused by Fraud: This Time Will Be Different

2019-04-18

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2019-04-18

All Sectors, Debt Securities and Loans, Liability, 1960 - 2019
Financial crises come in two flavors: fraud and credit-valuation over-reach.Fraud-based financial crises may differ in particulars, but they share many traits: perverse incentives are institutionalized; the perverse incentives reward figuring out how to evade oversight via fraud, embezzlement, masking risk, etc. which are soon commoditized; regulations are gutted by insider-funded lobbying; regulators fail to do their job in hopes of getting...

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FX Daily, April 17: Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending. Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi moment" and decided to do "whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy in the face of US tariffs and during the 70th anniversary of the Revolution.

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Swiss Policy Mix Review

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

Swiss Government Debt, 1990 - 2018
The Swiss federal budget is governed by a strict expenditure rule, which is enshrined in the Constitution. Since its introduction, the ratio of public debt-to-GDP has been significantly reduced, falling back to its early-90’s level. At the close of 2018, the Swiss federal budget registered a significant surplus of CHF 2.9 billion, compared with budget projections for a surplus of CHF 295 million.

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Cool Video: Trump Ahead in 2020?

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

Marc Chandler
First, I tried playing down the significance of Goldman's call. The markets have anticipated this. redictIt.Org has shown the President to be an easy favorite since the start of the year. Charles Payne, the host, dismissed these results because he said they reflect professional gambler. I don't know if that is true or even relevant (ad hominem?).

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Swiss pension funds ended 2018 in the red

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

Pay-outs by Switzerland’s main state pension plan, which comprises old age insurance and other schemes, far exceeded income last year. Overall, the old age pension scheme recorded a deficit of CHF2.2 billion ($2.2 billion) in 2018 compared with a surplus of CHF1.1 billion the previous year, according to compenswiss, the Federal Social Security Funds.

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Green Shoot or Domestic Stall?

2019-04-17

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2019-04-17

U.S. Industrial Production, SA 2007-2019
According to revised figures, things were really looking up for US industry. For the month of April 2018, the Federal Reserve’s Diffusion Index (3-month) for Industrial Production hit 68.2. Like a lot of other sentiment indicators, this was the highest in so long it had to be something. For this particular index, it hadn’t seen better than 68 since way back in March 2010, back when the economy looked briefly like it might actually recover.

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FX Daily, April 16: The Dollar and Stocks Catch a Bid

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Amid light news, global equities are moving higher In Asia, the Nikkei rose to a new high since early December, while the Shanghai Composite rose 2.3% and posted its highest close since March 2018. European equities are solid, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 moving higher for the fifth consecutive session.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in March 2019: -0.2 percent YoY, +0.3 percent MoM

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, March 2019
15.04.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index increased in March 2019 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 102.2 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with March 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.2%.

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What happens next on GBP/CHF exchange rates?

2019-04-16

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2019-04-16

The pound to Swiss franc exchange rate has been rather volatile, oscillating in a tight range between 1.2942 and 1.3336 in the last month. There is an expectation that we could see the pound losing further ground with the market bracing for worse news in the future for sterling.

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