Tag Archive: newsletter

Coronavirus: Swiss test rate now higher than South Korea’s

2020-03-29

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2020-03-29

This morning, Switzerland’s federal government announced the number of Covid-19 tests conducted so far in Switzerland. South Korea, a nation often cited among those with high test rates, now trails Switzerland on the number per capita tests it has conducted.

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Coronavirus: Why staying home is merely a recommendation in Switzerland

2020-03-29

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2020-03-29

Readers of swissinfo.ch have many questions about the way the Swiss are handling the pandemic. In this first collection of answers, we tackle social distancing measures and how the population is taking them onboard. Switzerland has progressively tightened measures aimed at limiting the spread of Covid-19 across the country.

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It’s Not About Jobless Claims Today, It’s About What Will Hamper Job Growth In A Few Months

2020-03-29

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2020-03-29

Two Labor Stories, 1995-2019
You’ve no doubt heard about the jobless claims number. At an incomprehensible 3.28 million Americans filing for unemployment for the first time, this level far exceeded the wildest expectations as the economic costs of the shutdown continue to come in far more like the worst case. And as bad as 3mm is, the real hidden number is likely much higher.

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More than Half of All US COVID-19 Deaths Occur in Only Four States

2020-03-29

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2020-03-29

Covid-19 Deaths as a % of All US Deaths
As of March 24, nearly 30 percent of all the COVID-19 deaths in the United States have occurred in New York state. Of the 910 deaths reported so far in the US, 271 happened in New York. Washington State was in second place, with 13 percent of the nation's COVID-19 deaths.

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Switzerland Peps Up SMEs

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

How Switzerland peps up SMEs: Banks are encouraged to extend credit (at 0%). The treasury guarantees the loans. The SNB refinances banks and accepts the guaranteed loans as collateral. Fast and efficient. Eventually, some of these loans will turn into grants of course. But that’s ok; the first-best response to a shock with asymmetric effects does involve transfers if markets are incomplete.

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Companies contemplate bleak coronavirus outlook

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

Swiss companies are reporting slumping sales, cashflow problems and bottlenecks in the supply of crucial materials as the coronavirus crisis hits the economy. However, a survey also found that three out of four firms are satisfied with a CHF42 billion ($43 billion) state bailout package.

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Coronavirus: the fallibility of fatality rates

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

Naturally, many of us would like to know the fatality rate of Covid-19. But at this stage it is guesswork. Here are some of the problems with two of the most popular fatality rates. The most popular calculation involves dividing the number deaths by the number of cases. Epidemiologists call this a naive case fatality rate (CFR). There are two ways to calculate this rate.

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No Further Comment Necessary At This Point

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

Primary Dealer Repo Fails (UST), 2017-2020
I would write something snarky about bank reserves, but why bother at this point? It’s already been said. If Jay Powell doesn’t mention collateral, no one else does even though it’s the whole ballgame right now. Note: FRBNY’s updated figures shown below are for last week.

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Diversification versus Risk

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

It is widely held that financial asset prices fully reflect all available and relevant information, and that adjustments to new information is virtually instantaneous. This way of thinking which is known as the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is closely linked with the modern portfolio theory (MPT), which postulates that market participants are at least as good at price forecasting as any model that a financial market scholar can come up with,...

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Corona-Krise – Eine machbare, vertretbare Lösung

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

Nachdem ich mich systematisch mit den verschiedenen Teilproblemen beschäftigt habe, bin ich nun überzeugt, eine machbare, vertretbare und rasche Lösung für das Corona-Problem gefunden zu haben.

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FX Daily, March 27: Nervousness Ahead of the Weekend

2020-03-27

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2020-03-27

Overview: Officials appear to have persuaded investors that they have put into place measures that will cushion the economic blow and ensure that the financial system continues to function. After seemingly goading officials into action, investors are choosing not to resist. Moreover, there is a recognition that many programs are scalable.

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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Dollar easing further from monthly tops, approaching 0.9600 figure vs. CHF

2020-03-27

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2020-03-27

USD/CHF daily chart
USD/CHF is trading down for the fourth consecutive day. The level to beat for bears is the 0.9600 support. USD/CHF is easing from the monthly highs as the spot drops below the main SMAs on the daily chart. The US dollar is down against most currencies this Thursday.

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Coronavirus: a test to see if you’ve had it is in the pipeline

2020-03-27

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2020-03-27

Coronavirus testing has been rationed in Switzerland, reserving it for high risk more severe cases, although doctors retain discretion to have anyone tested. It is likely those that have been infected and have recovered will have immunity and no longer be able to act as carriers of the disease.

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ECB Approaching its Bazooka Moment

2020-03-27

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2020-03-27

ECB Balance Sheet Total Assets, 2010-2019
The ECB appears to be moving closer to activating Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT).  Despite being part of Draghi’s “whatever it takes” moment, OMT has never been used.  If the Fed’s open-ended QE is seen as dollar-negative, then OMT should be seen as euro-negative. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS At the regularly scheduled March 12 meeting, the ECB delivered a package of easing measures that were in hindsight quite underwhelming.  The ECB boosted QE...

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Central Bankers Are Running Out of Options

2020-03-27

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2020-03-27

Corona fears have shifted the world’s central banks into hyperdrive. Talk more, do more, lend more—and buy everything that moves. One after the other, the major central banks took to the barricades, manned the canons, fired their bazookas, and every other military metaphor you can think of.

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FX Daily, March 26: Rumor Bought, Fact Sold

2020-03-26

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2020-03-26

Overview: Speculation that the US Senate would pass the large stimulus bill worth around 10% of US GDP is thought to have fueled a bounce in equities in recent days. The bill was approved and will now go to the House, where a vote is expected tomorrow. If the rumor was bought, the fact has been sold. The first to crack was the Asia Pacific region.

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Was mache ich wenn ich 1’000’000 CHF Nettovermögen erreiche? 💰🙇🏻‍♂️

2020-03-26

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2020-03-26

Diese Frage stelle ich mir tatsächlich sehr selten, aber Bekannte und Freunde fragen gerne mal. Was machst du wenn du die 1‘000‘000 CHF Nettovermögen erreichst? Kaufst du dir dann zur Feier etwas? Meine Antwort ist immer etwas ernüchternd, es geht normal weiter wie bisher, es ist nur eine Zahl.

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FINMA unterstützt das Liquiditätspaket des Bundesrats und rollt weitere Massnahmen aus

2020-03-26

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2020-03-26

Die Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht FINMA begrüsst ausdrücklich das heute vom Bundesrat verabschiedete Massnahmenpaket des Bundes. Dieses sieht eine rasche und unbürokratische Versorgung der Realwirtschaft mit Liquidität via die Banken vor. Um die bestehende Robustheit der Schweizer Finanzinstitute beizubehalten, ruft die FINMA diese zu einer umsichtigen Ausschüttungspolitik auf.

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Corona-Krise: SNB stellt Banken zusätzliche Liquidität zur Verfügung

2020-03-26

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2020-03-26

Der Bund, die Nationalbank (SNB und die Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht (FINMA) haben infolge der schweren Belastung der Schweizer Wirtschaft durch die Corona-Pandemie gemeinsam mit den Banken ein Massnahmenpaket geschnürt. In diesem Rahmen führt die SNB die neue SNB-COVID-19-Refinanzierungsfazilität (CRF) ein.

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Global curbs on medical exports imperil poor nations

2020-03-26

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2020-03-26

Around 50 countries have introduced curbs on exports of medical supplies, including ventilators. This poses a major risk for poor countries, a Swiss study has revealed. The past fortnight has seen nations around the world scrambling for medical supplies and equipment to combat the fast-spreading coronavirus.

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