Tag Archive: newsletter

Budget Deficits, not “Neoliberalism,” Are To Blame for Argentina’s Crisis

Argentinians are known for for slinging clever insults. Spaniards, for example, love Argentine "puteadas" so much that they created a website called “Curse like an Argentinian.” Now in the world of bad words, one stands out that, when received, mortally wounds the rival in the argument. It's hard to recover after such an attack. Curiously, this insult can be written without violating the rules of decorum.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Bulls struggle to extend the recovery beyond 0.9900 handle

Renewed US-China trade optimism helped regain some traction. The uptick lacked bullish conviction and warrants some caution. The USD/CHF pair stalled its recent pullback from levels beyond 200-day SMA and regained some traction on the last trading day of the week. Renewed trade optimism weighed on the Swiss franc's safe-haven status and led to a modest recovery, though bulls struggled to extend the momentum beyond the 0.9900 handle. 

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FX Daily, November 15: Market Runs with US Line that US-China Deal is Close

Comments by US presidential adviser Kudlow playing up the prospects of a trade agreement between the US and China, with other reports suggesting a key call be held today, is helping to underpin sentiment into the weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared this week's loss today, with China the only main market not participating, despite the PBOC's unexpected injection of CNY200 bln of the Medium-Term Lending Facility.

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Andréa Maechler – SNB: Klimarisiken für die Stabilität der Wirtschaft sind «mässig»

Aufgabe der Nationalbank sei die Gewährleistung der Preisstabilität, sagte SNB-Direktorin Andréa Maechler. Es sei nicht wünschenswert, dass die SNB "spezifische struktur- oder gesellschaftspolitische Ziele anstrebe".

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Additional funds set aside for transalpine rail transport 

The Swiss government has decided to earmark CHF180 million ($182 million) as part of a package to promote the transfer of heavy-goods transport from road to rail. In its bill to parliament, the government foresees an extension of payments to transport companies using freight trains until 2026 and a decrease in so-called track access charges with CHF90 million each.

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Time limit to exchange old banknotes eliminated

Banknotes as old as 1976 can soon be traded in at the national bank following a decision by the federal government to eliminate the 20-year time limit. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) issues a new series of banknotes every 15 to 20 years and removes the old notes from circulation. Six months later, the old notes don’t have a legal tender and therefore can’t be used as a means of payment.

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Emerging Market Risk Map

With year-end upon us, we review some of the key risks to EM assets and how we think they progress from here. In short, the two most significant downside risks would be a decisive improvement in Elizabeth Warren’s polling figures and an upset in the US-China trade negotiations.

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Why Friedman Is Wrong on the Business Cycle

According to an article in Bloomberg on November 5, 2019, Milton Friedman’s business cycle theory seems to be vindicated. According to Milton Friedman, strong recoveries are just natural after particularly deep recessions. Like a guitar string, the harder the string is plucked down, the faster it should come back up.

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Congressman Prods Attorney General on Gold, Silver Trading Questions Ignored by CFTC

A U.S. representative who has been pressing the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) with questions about the gold and silver markets has asked Attorney General William P. Barr to try intervene and get answers from the commission. In a letter dated November 1 and made public today, the U.S. representative, Alex W. Mooney, Republican of West Virginia, commends Barr for the Justice Department's recent...

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Monetary Metals Leases Platinum to Money Metals Exchange

Scottsdale, Ariz, October 25, 2019—Monetary Metals® announced today that it has leased platinum to Money Metals Exchange® to support its U.S.-based business of selling precious metals at retail and wholesale. Investors earn 3% on their platinum, which is held in Money Metals’ inventory vault in the form of platinum coins, bars, and rounds. The lease fee is paid in gold.

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FX Daily, November 14: Unexpected German Growth Fails to Buoy the Euro

Overview: Rising trade anxiety and disappointing economic reports from the Asia Pacific region helped unpin the profit-taking mood in equities, while bond yields continued to pullback. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 are in the red for the fourth time in the last five sessions. Germany reported a surprise 0.1% expansion in Q3, but it has done little for the DAX or the euro.

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 3rd quarter 2019: 0.3percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition rose to 4.6percent

14.11.2019 - The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.3% between the 3rd quarter 2018 and the 3rd quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. The EU's unemployment rate decreased from 6.5% to 6.2%. These are some of the results of the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS).

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in October 2019: -2.4 percent YoY, -0,2 percent MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in October 2019 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.9 points (December 2015 = 100). Compared with October 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 2.4%.

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Swiss National Bank Now Owns Record $94 Billion In US Stocks After Q3 Buying Spree

In the third quarter of 2019, one in which the global economy continued to cycle lower, global central banks across the world continued to slash interest rates and launched/expanded quantitative easing programs with very little success at troughing global growth. Still, US equity indices powered to new highs, climbing a wall of worry of President Trump's "trade optimism" tweets. 

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Banknoten können künftig unbegrenzt umgetauscht werden

Der Bundesrat hat am Mittwoch beschlossen, die Teilrevision des Bundesgesetzes über die Währung und Zahlungsmittel (WZG) auf den 1. Januar 2020 in Kraft zu setzen. Das Parlament hatte diese im Juni verabschiedet.

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Telecom operator Sunrise to pay up for failed deal

Following shareholder pushback, Swiss telecom operator Sunrise has cancelled the purchase contract for the cable network operator UPC, officially burying the controversial deal. This is another failed attempt to challenge industry leader Swisscom.

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Stock Market Cheerleading: Why Do We Celebrate the Super-Rich Getting Richer?

It's not too difficult to predict a political rebellion against the machinery of soaring wealth and income inequality. The one constant across the media-political spectrum is an unblinking focus on the stock market as a barometer of the national economy: every major media outlet from the New York Times to Fox News prominently displays stock market action, and TV news anchors' expressions reflect the media's emotional promotion of the market as the...

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Cross-border workers entering Switzerland set record in 2019

The number of people from neighbouring countries commuting to Switzerland for work each day reached a record 325,000 this year. The increase was felt especially in cantons Ticino and Geneva. Following a slight drop in 2018, the Swiss job market is once again attracting cross-border workers in historically high numbers. Some 325,291 peopleexternal link entered the country each day in the third quarter of 2019, beating the previous record of 316,491...

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FX Daily, November 13: Investors Temper Euphoria

Overview: The recent rise in equity markets and backing up in yields spurred many observers to upgrade their macroeconomic outlooks rather than the other way around. Yet we continue to see may worrisome signs. It is not just trade, though, of course, that is part of it. Sentiment itself is fragile and will likely follow prices.

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SNB’s Jordan: Swiss franc remains highly valued

Foreign exchange market remains fragile. Negative rates, readiness for intervention still necessary. Danger of a worsening international situation remains large. Imbalances in Swiss real estate market still persist.

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