Tag Archive: newsletter

Is Free Market Economics Too “Ideological”?

Free market economics is often ignorantly dismissed for being "ideological" rather than scientific. It probably sounds smart to the economically illiterate, but it is decidedly not. It doesn't mean nearly what most people assume it does. The word "free" in free market economics is not used as a normative value judgment but indicates an economy that is unaffected by exogenous (from the outside) factors.

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USD/CHF New York Price Analysis: Dollar eases from session highs, trades below 0.9830 vs. Swiss franc

USD/CHF prints another 2020 high and retraces down in the New York session. Bears are challenging the 0.9830 level. After hitting yet again a new 2020 high, USD/CHF is easing from session highs. The spot is trading below the 200-day simple moving averages suggesting an overall bearish momentum in the long term.

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New Swiss aid budget proposes more funds but for fewer countries

The Swiss government wants to set aside CHF11.25 billion ($11.43 billion) in development aid for the 2021-2024 period. The governing Federal Council adopted its Strategy for International Cooperation on Wednesday after opening it up for public consultation. It will still have to be approved by parliament.

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Why It’s so Hard to Escape America’s “Anti-Poverty” Programs

One of the most common debates that has occurred in the United States for the past six decades is the discussion of the poverty rate. As the narrative goes, the US has an unusually high poverty rate compared to equivalent nations in the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).

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FX Daily, February 20: Covid-19 Hits Yen and Korean Won

The increase of Covid-19 cases in South Korea and Japan, coupled with China's changing reverting back to its previous methodology of calculation, dropping clinically-diagnosed cases have again weakened risk appetites and sent the dollar broadly higher. Fears of a Japanese recession are sapping the yen's role as a safe haven, and this helps explain why Japanese equities did react as positively to the weaker yen than is often the case.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q4 2019: Secondary sector shows positive growth rates again

20.02.2020 - Secondary sector production rose by 1.3% in 4th quarter 2019 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover rose by 0.3%. This rise has continued without interruption since the 1st quarter 2017 but was slightly weaker in the reporting quarter. This is shown by provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Tax on legal weed repealed

The Swiss Federal Court has ruled that cannabis – the legal, low-THC version – should not be subject to the tobacco tax. Responding to the complaints of three cannabis production companies, the court found that there was no legal basis for a 25% tobacco tax on the sales price of cannabis. The tax will be dropped immediately.

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FX Daily, February 19: Investors’ Confidence Snaps Back

Overview: After shunning risk yesterday, investors re-entered the fray today, and the animal spirits returned. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day slide, and China's markets were among the few losers in the region today. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 recovered yesterday's losses in full and is again at record highs. US shares are also trading firmer and are poised to recoup yesterday's decline.

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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bulls aim for 200-week SMA as MACD turns strongest in nine weeks

USD/CHF registers three-week winning streak, breaks above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement for the first time in a year. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, September 2018 low act as the key supports. USD/CHF takes the bids to 0.9835 amid the pre-European session on Wednesday. In doing so, the pair crosses 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its broad run-up between February 2018 and April 2019.

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Weekly View – Merkel under pressure

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Car emissions rising due to imported guzzlers, says report 

New cars imported into Switzerland have not been respecting the prescribed norms on CO2 emissions, with emission levels actually rising in 2017 and 2018, says a report published on Tuesday. Nearly half of importers failed to meet compulsory targets in 2018, according to the Federal Office of the Environment’s report for parliament. 

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The World Is Awash in Oil, False Assurances, Magical Thinking and Complacency as Global Demand Careens Toward a Cliff

This collapse of price will manifest in all sorts of markets that are based on debt-funded purchases of desires rather than a warily prudent priority on needs. Since markets are supposed to discover the price of excesses and scarcities, it's a mystery why everything that is in oversupply is still grossly overpriced as global demand slides off a cliff: oil, semiconductors, Uber rides, AirBNB listings and many other risk-on / global growth stories...

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Gold is the 7th sense of financial markets

As we embark on this new decade, there are plenty of good reasons to be optimistic about gold’s prospects. The global economy and the financial system are already stretched to a breaking point and demand for precious metals is heating up. This, of course, is plain for all to see, even as mainstream investors and analysts still refuse to face facts and prefer to focus on naïve hopes of an eternal expansion.

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Some Problems with Worker Productivity Stats

According to the US Labor Department, worker productivity in the non-farm sector increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 after declining by 0.2 percent in the previous quarter. For the year, productivity increased 1.7 percent, up from 1.3 percent in both 2017 and 2018. It was the best annual showing since the 3.4 percent increase in 2010.

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FX Daily, February 18: Apple’s Warning Weighs on Sentiment

Overview: Apple's warning that it will miss Q1 revenue due to the knock-on effects of the coronavirus seemed to be a modest wake-up call to investors, who, judging from the equity market, were looking beyond. Equities have fallen, and bonds have rallied. Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korean stocks fell by more than 1%, and only China and Indonesia were able to post gains.

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2020-02-17 – The SNB’s Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Series: Carmen Reinhart to hold fifth lecture

The Swiss National Bank is honouring Carmen Reinhart with this year’s Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Series. Carmen Reinhart is an influential economist who has made outstanding contributions to macroeconomics. She has been Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School since 2012, and also currently serves on the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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Portugal set to end tax holidays for foreign residents

Recently, the government of Portugal said it was looking at introducing a tax on foreigners residing in the country on special tax holidays, according to the magazine Bilan. Currently, foreigners moving to Portugal who spend at least 180 days a year in the country pay no income tax for a period of 10 years under a scheme that was launched 11 years ago.

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Swiss private bank Pictet to drop fossil fuel investments

Recently, the private bank Pictet, based in Geneva, announced plans to eliminate all of its investments in companies actively associated with the production and extraction of fossil fuels, according to a press release.

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European Data: Much More In Store For Number Four

It’s just Germany. It’s just industry. The excuses pile up as long as the downturn. Over across the Atlantic the situation has only now become truly serious. The European part of this globally synchronized downturn is already two years long and just recently is it becoming too much for the catcalls to ignore. Central bankers are trying their best to, obviously, but the numbers just aren’t stacking up their way.

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Three Reasons Why Decentralization and Secession Lead to More Open Economies

When we hear of political movements in favor of decentralization and secession, the word "nationalist" is often used to describe them. We have seen the word used in both Scottish and Catalonian secession movement, and in the case of Brexit. Sometimes the term is intended to be pejorative. But not always.

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