Tag Archive: newsletter

If Not-QE Is QE, then is Not-a-Blowoff-Top a Blowoff Top?

Can $300 billion, or $600 billion, or even $1 trillion continue to prop up an increasingly risk-riddled, fragile $330 trillion global bubble in overvalued assets? When is "Not-QE" QE? When Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell declares QE is not QE. We can constructively recall the story that Abraham Lincoln famously recounted in 1862: 'If I should call a sheep's tail a leg, how many legs would it have?'

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True US Economy About To Be ‘Revealed’ – Stockman Interview

David Stockman is the former budget director for President Ronald Reagan and author of “Peak Trump: The Undrainable Swamp and the Fantasy of MAGA”. He believes that the market “can’t digest” all the money flooding into Wall Street and that the Federal Reserve responded with panic.

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The Perversity of Negative Interest, Report 17 Nov

Today, we want to say two things about negative interest rates. The first is really simple. Anyone who believes in a theory of interest that says “the savers demand interest to compensate for inflation” needs to ask if this explains negative interest in Switzerland, Europe, and other countries. If not, then we need a new theory (Keith just presented his theory at the Austrian Economics conference at King Juan Carlos University in Madrid—it is...

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Globalist-Endorsed War on Cash May Be China’s Next Terrifying Weapon

Recent protests in Hong Kong, along with the resulting fall out from international corporations questioned for their relationships with mainland China, has placed a renewed focus on the authoritarianism of the Chinese Communist Party. This has led to several articles identifying ways in which Western countries have learned from the CCP, including Europe's growing embrace of web censorship and growing interest in the social credit system rolled out...

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FX Daily, November 18: Sterling Shines in Subdued Start to the New Week

Overview: Equities in Europe and the US look to extend their six-week rally, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gets back on the winning way after stumbling last week. Despite the escalation of the conflict in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng rose 1.35% to lead the region and recoup a chunk of last week's 4.8% slump. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 puts the European benchmark within spitting distance of the four-year high set recently.

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: 100-day SMA becomes a tough nut to crack for sellers

USD/CHF takes another U-turn from 100-day SMA, takes the bids above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement acts as the key support while 200-day SMA holds the pair’s recovery confined. Following its bounce off 100-day SMA, USD/CHF rises past-38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-October upside while taking the bids to 0.9900 by the press time ahead of the European session on Monday.

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Negativzinsen für Kunden bei Raiffeisen vorerst vom Tisch

Auf die Frage, ob auch die Raiffeisen-Gruppe künftig Strafzinsen verrechnen will, erklärte der 58-jährige Lachappelle: "Ich kann mir das nicht vorstellen." Wenn bei Sparkonti Negativzinsen eingeführt würden, sei die Gefahr gross, dass es zu einem "Bank Run" komme - also dass die Sparer ihr Geld von den Banken abziehen.

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Swiss retailers brace for ‘Black Friday’ sales as shoppers raise credit limits

The busiest shopping day of the year in the United States has become big business in Switzerland. But, some worry about the risks of consumers falling into debt and the pressure the Black Friday “holiday” puts on employees and the postal service.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX was mostly weaker last week due to doubts about a Phase One trade deal between the US and China. Those talks continue this week and while we expect a deal to be struck, there is likely to be a lot of last minute posturing that will likely keep markets volatile over the short-run. In the meantime, investors need to beware of idiosyncratic country risk within EM.

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Negativzinsen, unser notwendiges Übel

Warum die Schweizer Negativzinspolitik trotz aller leidigen Nebenwirkungen bis auf weiteres unumgänglich ist. Negativzinsen in der Schweiz sind ein Sonderfall. Denn die Schweiz hat keine Negativzinsen, um das Wirtschaftswachstum anzukurbeln oder um bedrohte Schuldner vor dem Zusammenbruch zu retten. Die Negativzinsen hierzulande haben nur einen einzigen Grund: Ein weiteres Erstarken des Schweizer Frankens soll verhindert werden.

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Ageing population threatens Swiss prosperity, study warns

Switzerland must do more to find employment options for older citizens and increase work productivity says the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco). If not, prosperity for all will decline as the population ages. The median age of the Swiss population has risen to 43 compared to 32 in 1970. By 2060 this will rise further to 48-years-old going by current fertility rates.

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Yes, Taxation Is Theft

Libertarians think that taxation is theft. The government takes away part of your income and property by force. Your payments aren’t voluntary. If you think they are, try to withhold payment and see what happens. An influential book by Liam Murphy and Thomas Nagel, The Myth of Ownership, tries to show that this view of taxation is wrong. Many people, they say, foolishly resent taxes.

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QE’s and Rate Cuts: Two Very Different Sets of Sentiment Drawn From Them

The stock market’s dichotomy grows ever wider. On the one side, record high prices which are being set by the expectations of a trade deal plus renewed worldwide “stimulus.” Sure, officials everywhere were late to see the downturn coming, but they’ve since woken up and went to work.

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After Years of Decline, Competition in Banking Finally Grows Again

US Banks are seeing a larger number of new entrants into the industry. Chime, a mobile-only bank, has opened two million online checking accounts and is adding more customers each month than Wells Fargo or Citibank. Firms from outside traditional consumer banking including Square, Goldman Sachs (Marcus), and Robinhood are entering the industry as well.

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‘We’re green enough’ says Swiss central bank 

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is doing enough to mitigate climate damage with its investment policy, senior directors have stated. Switzerland’s central bank does not have the mandate to impose environmental conditions on the commercial banking sector.

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World’s Ultra-Rich Preparing For Market Crash, UBS Warns

A synchronized global slowdown, with no end in sight, has spooked some of the wealthiest investors around the world, according to a new survey from UBS Wealth Management, seen by Bloomberg. UBS polled wealthy investors, who are preparing for a significant stock market correction by the end of next year. 

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Gold Price Falls on Selling of Gold Futures Equal to 3 Million Ounces in 30 Minutes

◆ Gold price falls to a three-month low as concentrated selling of COMEX gold futures contracts equal to over 3 million ounces are sold in 30 minutes◆ 33,596 contracts were aggressively sold in the 30 minutes between 10:00 and 10:30 a.m. New York time which is more than triple the 100-day average for that time of day

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Budget Deficits, not “Neoliberalism,” Are To Blame for Argentina’s Crisis

Argentinians are known for for slinging clever insults. Spaniards, for example, love Argentine "puteadas" so much that they created a website called “Curse like an Argentinian.” Now in the world of bad words, one stands out that, when received, mortally wounds the rival in the argument. It's hard to recover after such an attack. Curiously, this insult can be written without violating the rules of decorum.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Bulls struggle to extend the recovery beyond 0.9900 handle

Renewed US-China trade optimism helped regain some traction. The uptick lacked bullish conviction and warrants some caution. The USD/CHF pair stalled its recent pullback from levels beyond 200-day SMA and regained some traction on the last trading day of the week. Renewed trade optimism weighed on the Swiss franc's safe-haven status and led to a modest recovery, though bulls struggled to extend the momentum beyond the 0.9900 handle. 

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FX Daily, November 15: Market Runs with US Line that US-China Deal is Close

Comments by US presidential adviser Kudlow playing up the prospects of a trade agreement between the US and China, with other reports suggesting a key call be held today, is helping to underpin sentiment into the weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared this week's loss today, with China the only main market not participating, despite the PBOC's unexpected injection of CNY200 bln of the Medium-Term Lending Facility.

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