Tag Archive: newsletter

More Down In The Downturn

Flash PMI’s from IHS Markit for the US economy were split in October. According to the various sentiment indicators, there’s a little bit of a rebound on the manufacturing side as contrary to the ISM’s estimates for the same sector. Markit reports a sharp uptick in current manufacturing business volumes during this month.

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Bundesbank Buys Gold – Increasing Concerns About Deutsche Bank, European Banks, the Euro and Dollar

◆ The End Of Fiat In One Chart?◆ For the first time in 21 years, Germany has openly bought gold into its reserve holdings◆ With ECB mutiny and Deutsche Bank’s rapid demise, fears are rising of a looming financial crisis, and with that, Germany has shown a renewed interest in gold

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FX Daily, October 24: Flash PMIs Disappoint Despite Negative Interest Rates

Overview: As the UK awaits the EU's decision on its request, disappointing flash PMI readings Japan, Australia, and Germany have filled the news vacuum. Sweden's Riksbank retained a hawkish tone while keeping rates on hold, and Norway's Norges Bank also stood pat. The market expects Turkey to deliver a rate cut, while the ECB meeting is Draghi's last at the helm.

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Bitcoin billionaire twins to address St Moritz crypto event

Cameron and Tyler Winkelvoss, who made a fortune out of bitcoin, are to deliver a keynote speech at next year’s Crypto Finance Conference in St Moritz. The annual gathering of cryptocurrency entrepreneurs and investors has become a fixture event, running just before the World Economic Forum’s flagship Davos summit.

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Nestlé remains among top plastic polluters in the world

The Swiss food giant has been placed second behind Coca-Cola in an audit of plastic waste by a coalition of environmental organisations. The results of the analysis, released on Wednesday by the Break Free From Plasticexternal link movement, prompted the authors to single out the corporations that finished in the top three for the second year in a row – Coca-Cola, Nestlé and PepsiCo – for having offered “mostly false solutions to the plastics...

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Cool Video: China Still Needs to Provide more Stimulus

The IMF projects that China will expand by less than 6% in 2020, but unless China provides more stimulus, it may be difficult to achieve.  This is not only my view but also the view of Helen Qiao, the chief economist for Greater China at Bank of America.  I was on the Bloomberg set with Alix Steele and Ms. Qiao earlier today.

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Macro Housing: Bargains and Discounts Appear

While things go wrong for Jay Powell in repo, they are going right in housing. Sort of. It’s more than cliché that the real estate sector is interest rate sensitive. It surely is, and much of the Fed’s monetary policy figuratively banks on it. When policymakers talk about interest rate stimulus, they largely mean the mortgage space.

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The Unraveling Quickens

Even if we don't measure the erosion of intangible capital, the social and political consequences of this impoverishment are manifesting in all sorts of ways. The central thesis of my new book Will You Be Richer or Poorer? is the financial "wealth" we've supposedly gained (or at least a few of us have gained) in the past 20 years has masked the unraveling of our intangible capital: the resilience of our economy, our social capital, i.e. our ability...

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JPMorgan Warns U.S. Money Market Stress to ‘Get Much Worse’

◆ Severe funding pressures in U.S. money markets tipped to resurface heading into year-end by JPMorgan who warn that financial stresses are likely to ‘get much worse’ ◆ Goldman Sachs and Bank of America also warn funding issues remain (see below) ◆ Federal Reserve will start buying $60 billion of Treasury bills every month ◆ Funding markets are on notice for a possible year-end liquidity crunch

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Germany Increase Gold Reserves In September For The First Time In 21 Years – IMF

◆ The gold reserves of the German Bundesbank rose in September for the first time in 21 years; German gold reserves rose to 108.34 million ounces in September from 108.25 million ounces last month◆ It was the Germany’s first gold purchase since 1998 and while the amounts are not huge at 90,000 troy ounces, it highlights the Bundesbank and German concerns about the global monetary system and euro itself as Christine Lagarde takes over the ECB

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FX Daily, October 23: Markets Lack Much Conviction, Await Fresh Developments

Overview: UK Prime Minister Johnson is neither dead in a ditch as he said he would prefer to be than request an extension of Brexit, nor will the UK leave the EU at the end of the month. Yesterday's vote rejected the attempt to fast-track the legislation needed to support the divorce agreement. It all but ensures that such a delay will be forthcoming.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: 0.9912/15, 4H 200MA limit immediate upside

USD/CHF struggles to hold the latest recovery gains. A seven-week-old rising trend line, 50% Fibonacci retracement acts as the closest upside barrier. 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement offers adjacent support. The USD/CHF pair’s recovery from 0.9840 seems to lack momentum as the quote witnesses a pullback to 0.9900 ahead of the European session opening on Wednesday.

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Japan Tobacco staff protest over job cuts

Almost 100 Japan Tobacco International (JTI) staff protested outside their Geneva headquarters on Tuesday against job cuts. Around a quarter of the Geneva workforce are affected by major restructuring plans. Last month the multinational firm behind cigarette brands like Winston, Camel and Benson & Hedges confirmed restructuring plans and job cuts. Some 268 posts out of 1,100 are due to be cut at the Geneva headquarters.

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August TIC: Trying To Get Collateral Out of the Shadows

The second most frustrating aspect of trying to analyze global shadow money is how the term “shadow” really applies in this case. It’s not really because banks are being sneaky, desperately maintaining their cover for any number of illicit activities they are regularly accused of undertaking. The money stays in the shadows for the simple reason central bankers don’t know their jobs; even after a somehow Global Financial Crisis in 2008, they don’t...

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A New Stage of the US-China Conflict

The US-China diplomatic relationship may be entering a new stage. The balance of power between the key players – Trump, China, the US Congress, and the Democrats – is changing and their roles are being reshuffled. This might be enough to break the endless cycle of agreements and re-escalations. In short, we think both Trump and Chinese officials have a greater incentive to reach a deal (or at least not to escalate) this time around.

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Yes, Gold “Just Sits There” and That’s Quite a Feat

The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig famously referred to gold as a “Pet Rock” in 2015. He was blasted by people who understand that gold is no passing fad, and it serves some very important roles in an investment portfolio. The valuable roles played by gold have been well covered here. It’s a hedge against both inflation and deflation, it represents true diversification for portfolios stuffed with conventional securities, and it is a way of...

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FX Daily, October 22: Trudeau will Lead a Coalition Government in Canada, while the UK’s Johnson Fights Another Day

Overview: Bismark is said to have warned that laws were like sausages, and to respect them, one ought not to see how they are made. The UK had a non-binding referendum more than three years ago, and although it won by 52%-48% and the party leaders committed to adhering to the results, it still cannot figure out how to leave.

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2019-10-22 – Swiss National Bank opens SNB Forum for interested expert audience

Today, the Swiss National Bank is opening the SNB Forum on the ground floor of its premises at Fraumünsterstrasse 8 in Zurich. This has been created as part of the mult i-yearrenovation of this building, and is open to the public.

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Syngenta commits $2 billion to tackle climate change

The Swiss-based agricultural firm has set aside $2 billion (around CHF1.97 billion) over five years to reduce emissions from agricultural practices. The company, which has come under fire for profiting from selling hazardous pesticides abroad, also announced on Tuesday that it will be reducing its carbon footprint by 50% by 2030.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: 0.9900 is the level to beat for buyers

USD/CHF seesaws around late-Friday tops. 100-HMA, Friday’s high will restrict the latest pullback. September month low can please sellers during the declines. Failure to extend the latest recovery seems to portray the USD/CHF pair’s weakness as it trades around 0.9870 amid pre-European session on Tuesday.

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