Tag Archive: newsletter

USD/CHF: On the back foot below 10-day EMA amid greenback weakness

USD/CHF fails to hold on to previous gains as broad weakness of the USD joins risk reshuffle. US-China trade optimism confronts Brexit risk while Japan’s data-dump joins China’s Industrial Production data. Swiss ZEW Survey, trade/political updates will be in the spotlight.

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Number on welfare in Switzerland falls for first time in 10 years

In 2018, the number of people receiving social welfare in Switzerland fell from 278,300, or 3.3% of the population, to 272,700, 3.2% of the population. The last time the number fell was in 2008 when it dropped from 3.1% (233,500) to 2.9% (222,600) of the population.

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Xi To Skip Davos, Collapsing Hopes Of Phase One Deal Signing Event With Trump

If it was The Wall Street Journal or other US financial media outlets, for the last several weeks, pumping headlines via "people familiar with the discussions," about how President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could have a phase one trade deal signing event at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January. 

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How Today’s Central Bankers Threaten Civilization

When I was asked to write an article about the impact of negative interest rates and negative yielding bonds, I thought it was a chance to look at the topic from a broader perspective. There have been lots of articles speculating about the possible implications and focusing on their impact in the short run, but it’s not very often that an analysis looks a bit further into the future, trying to connect money and its effect on society itself.

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Abolish the Office of the First Lady

It's almost Christmas time again, and that means its time for White House politicians and staff to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on Christmas decorations and events for the White House.

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Credit Suisse: FINMA appoints independent investigator

The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA says it will have an independent auditor investigate Swiss bank Credit Suisse “in the context of observation activities”. “The observation activities carried out by Credit Suisse raise various compliance issues,” FINMA said in a statement on Friday evening.

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Welcome to the Era of Intensifying Chaos and New Weapons of Conflict

Geopolitics has moved from a slow-moving, relatively predictable chess match to rapidly evolving 3-D chess in which the rules keep changing in unpredictable ways. A declining standard of living in the developed world, declining growth for the developed world and geopolitical jockeying for control of resources make for a highly combustible mix awaiting a spark: welcome to the era of intensifying chaos and the rapid advance of new weapons of conflict...

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Economics and the Revolt against Reason

The Revolt Against Reason. It is true that some philosophers were ready to overrate the power of human reason. They believed that man can discover by ratiocination the final causes of cosmic events, the inherent ends the prime mover aims at in creating the universe and determining the course of its evolution.

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Credit Suisse Ex-Employee Says “Striking Tall Blonde” Spy Followed Her In Manhattan And Long Island

When Colleen Graham heard a story of investigators looking into Credit Suisse for spying on its recently departed head of wealth management, something sounded familiar. She had recalled, years prior, when she was working on a JV between the bank and Palantir Technologies, a "striking tall blonde" had followed her in Manhattan after she refused to sign off on how revenue from the JV would be booked.

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Real High Crimes and Misdemeanors

World Class Entertainer in the Cross-Hairs. Christmas is no time to be given the old heave-ho.  This is a time of celebration, redemption, and excess libation.  A time to shop ‘til you drop; the economy depends on it. Don’t get us wrong.  There really is no best time to receive the dreaded pink slip.  But Christmas is the absolute worst.  Has this ever happened to you?

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Failing to Emigrate Does Not Mean You Give Consent to the State

Eric Nelson, a Professor Government at Harvard, has published this year a brilliant and imaginative book, The Theology of Liberalism (Harvard University Press, 2019). Nelson, it should be said, is no leftist, despite what you might expect from his Harvard affiliation. To the contrary, he is a conservative and favors, though not to the fullest extent, the free market and private property rights.

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FX Weekly Preview: Economic Data in the Holiday-Shortened Week

The capital markets will turn increasingly quiet in the week ahead as the Christmas holiday thins participation. If this is the season of goodwill, investors are lapping it up.  Global equity markets are finishing a strong year on a high note.  Record highs were recorded in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600.  The MSCI Emerging Markets equity index is at its best level since August 2018. 

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Further recovery likely amid sustained break of 10-DMA

USD/CHF stays above 10-DMA for the first time in three weeks. 50% Fibonacci retracement can guard immediate upside ahead of 0.9885/90 resistance confluence. A downside break below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement can recall monthly low. Following its break of 10-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA) on Friday, USD/CHF trades around 0.9830 during early Monday.

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Repo Crisis Fades Away: For The First Time, A “Turn” Repo Is Not Oversubscribed

It looks like the year-end repocalypse that was predicted by Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar is taking a raincheck. Today's Term Repo saw $26.25BN in security submissions ($15.75BN in TSYs, $10.5BN in MBS), below the $35BN in total availability. This was the first "turn" repo that was not fully subscribed (on Monday, there was $54.25BN in demand for $50BN in repos maturing on Jan 17).

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX was mostly firmer last week.  ZAR, PEN, and CLP outperformed while TRY, HUF, and CNY underperformed.  MSCI EM traded at new highs for the cycle but ran out of steam near the 1110 area, while MSCI EM FX lagged a bit and has yet to surpass its July high.  Overall, the backdrop for EM remains constructive but investors must be prepared to differentiate amongst credits in 2020.

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Do Negative Rates Work? Yes, But Not by Much

Federal Reserve policy makers opposed to taking interest rates negative in the next recession might take comfort from the end of Sweden’s dalliance with below-zero rates. But investors shouldn’t expect the neighboring eurozone to follow suit: Just hours after the Riksbank raised its policy rate back to zero on Thursday, a group of the most senior monetary-policy staff at the European Central Bank published a long-awaited paper robustly defending...

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Switzerland’s high prices – a European comparison

Recently published data shows how prices compare across Europe. The data, collected by Eurostat, compares prices across a number of categories of spending in 2018. Average prices across the EU-28 are used as a base.

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Parliament approves CHF6 billion fighter jet package

The Swiss parliament has approved the purchase of a new fleet of fighter jets to the tune of some CHF6 billion ($6.1 billion). The plans may yet face approval by citizens. Both chambers of parliament have now accepted plans proposed by the government to buy up to 30 new fighter jets, a step it says is vital for the stability and security of the country.

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Good Economic Theory Focuses on Explanation, Not Prediction

In order to establish the state of the economy, economists employ various theories. Yet what are the criteria for how they decide whether the theory employed is helpful in ascertaining the facts of reality? According to the popular way of thinking, our knowledge of the world of economics is elusive — it is not possible to ascertain how the world of economics really works.

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Our Fragmentation Accelerates

As our fragmentation accelerates, shared economic interests are ignored in favor of divisive warring camps that share no common interests. That our society and economy are fragmenting is self-evident. This fragmentation is accelerating rapidly, as middle ground vanishes and competing camps harden their positions to solidify the loyalty of the "tribe." 

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