Tag Archive: newsletter

The Fed Can’t Reverse the Decline of Financialization and Globalization

The global economy and financial system are both running on the last toxic fumes of financialization and globalization. For two generations, globalization and financialization have been the two engines of global growth and soaring assets. Globalization can mean many things, but its beating heart is the arbitraging of the labor of the powerless, and commodity, environmental and tax costs by the powerful to increase their profits and wealth.

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Gold Steadies After Falls As U.S., Iran Stepping Back From the Brink

◆ Haven demand ebbs as stocks climb with easing Mideast tensions◆ Palladium retreats from fresh record but holds near $2,100. ◆ There’s still very strong demand for gold “due to a host of financial, geopolitical and monetary risks,” said Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore

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Dollar Builds on Gains as Iran Tensions Ease

Markets have reacted positively to President Trump’s press conference yesterday, while the dollar continues to gain traction. The North American session is quiet in terms of US data. Mexico reports December CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 2.25%. German November IP was slightly better than expected but still tepid; sterling took a hit on dovish comments by outgoing BOE Governor Carney.

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FX Daily, January 9: Animal Spirits Roar Back

Overview:  The S&P 500 recovered from a 10-day low to reach a new record high, which set the tone for the Asia Pacific and European markets today.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped by the most in a month with the Nikkei's 2% advance leading the way.  More broadly, the markets in Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, India, and Thailand all rose more than 1%.

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SNB – Devisenreserven der Nationalbank sinken

Per Ende des Berichtsmonats lag der Wert der Devisenreserven bei 770,80 Milliarden Franken, nachdem es Ende November noch 782,95 Milliarden Franken gewesen waren. Der Gesamtbestand der Reserven (exkl. Gold) erreichte Ende Dezember 776,62 Milliarden nach 788,76 Milliarden Franken im Vormonat, wie die SNB am Donnerstag auf ihrer Internetseite mitteilte.

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Swiss Retail Sales, November 2019: -0.7 percent Nominal and 0.0 percent Real

09.01.2020 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 0.7% in nominal terms in November 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss National Bank expects profit of CHF49 billion for 2019

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) expects to post an annual profit of CHF49 billion ($50.29 billion) for 2019, it said on Thursday, citing big gains from foreign bonds and stocks bought to dampen the value of the safe-haven Swiss franc. The profit, following a loss of CHF15 billion in 2018, means the central bank will pay out CHF2 billion to the Swiss government and cantons for last year and will hold discussions with the finance ministry on a possible...

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SNB – Nationalbank macht fast 50 Milliarden Franken Gewinn

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) hat gemäss provisorischen Berechnungen im Geschäftsjahr 2019 einen Gewinn von rund 49 Milliarden Franken erzielt. Der Löwenanteil des Gewinns entfiel mit 40 Milliarden auf die Fremdwährungspositionen. Auf dem Goldbestand resultierte derweil ein Bewertungsgewinn von 6,9 Milliarden, und der Erfolg auf den Frankenpositionen (mehrheitlich Negativzinsen) belief sich auf rund 2 Milliarden Franken.

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The Real Trade Dilemma

When I write that there are no winners around the world, what I mean is more comprehensive than just the trade wars. On that one narrow account, of course there are winners and losers. The Chinese are big losers, as the Census Bureau numbers plainly show (as well as China’s own). But even the winners of the trade wars find themselves wondering where all the spoils are.

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FX Daily, January 8: Hopes of De-Escalation Help Markets Stabilize

The Iranian retaliatory missile strike on Iraqi-bases housing US forces initially sparked a dramatic risk-off response throughout the capital markets. The muted response by the US coupled with signals from Tehran that it had "concluded" its proportionate measures saw the markets retrace the initial reaction. It was too late for equities in the Asia Pacific region, and several markets (Japan, China, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand) fell more than 1%.

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Weak below six-week-old falling trendline

USD/CHF recovers amid the recent risk reset. 200-bar SMA adds to the upside barrier, 2019 low holds the key to further declines. USD/CHF bounces off the intra-day low of 0.9665 to 0.9702 while heading into the European session on Wednesday. The pair benefits from the absence of immediate US-Iran war after Tehran hit US bases in Iraq.

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Swiss rents fall but property prices increase in 2019

Rents in Switzerland fell by an average of 0.5% last year but some regions bucked the trend. Last year was a good one for tenants, according to the Swiss Real Estate Offer Indexexternal link, which was published on Tuesday. December alone saw rents dropping 0.4% on average. The most significant drops were in central Switzerland (-1.7%), the Lake Geneva region (-1.1%) and northwestern Switzerland (-0.9%).

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More Trends That Ended 2019 The Wrong Way

Auto sales in 2019 ended on a skid. Still, the year as a whole wasn’t nearly as bad as many had feared. Last year got off on the wrong foot in the aftermath of 2018’s landmine, with auto sales like consumer spending down pretty sharply to begin it. Spending did rebound in mid-year if only somewhat, enough, though, to add a little more to the worst-is-behind-us narrative which finished off 2019.

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The S&P’s Biggest Bear Capitulates

First it was Dennis Gartman shutting down his newsletter after more than three decades, lamenting a market that no longer made any sense (a lament shared by Deutsche Bank's Aleksanda Kocic), and now the market's QE4-driven meltup has forced Wall Street's biggest sellside bear to capitulate on his November call that the market will drop in 2020; instead UBS' head of US equity strategy, Francois Trahan, has joined the bullish herd hiking his year-end...

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Gold’s New Bull Market and Why $7,000 Per Ounce Is “Logical” (Part I)

◆ Gold could rise to more than $7,000 an ounce according to respected MoneyWeek contributor and fund manager Charlie Morris (Part I today and Part II tomorrow). A year ago, in my occasional free newsletter, Atlas Pulse, I upgraded gold – which was trading at $1,239 an ounce at that point – to “bull market” status for the first time since 2012.

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FX Daily, January 7: Geopolitical Angst Eases, Helps Equities and Underpins the Greenback

Overview: Without fresh escalation, investors cannot maintain a heightened sense of geopolitical anxiety.  The recovery of US shares yesterday set the tone for today's rebound in Asia and Europe. All the equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied today, led by a 1.6% rally in Japan and a nearly 1.4% advance in Australia, with the exception of Taiwan.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in December 2019: +0.2 percent YoY, +0.4 percent MoM

07.01.2020 - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in December 2019 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.2% compared with the same month of the previous year. The average annual inflation reached +0.4% in 2019.These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Inside descending channel below 200-HMA

USD/CHF clings to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s downpour from Christmas to December 31. The falling channel, 200-HMA will challenge the Bullish MACD. The current month top will lure the buyers during further upside. The USD/CHF pair’s latest recovery seems to struggle around 0.9690 during early Tuesday.

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Hoher Gewinn der SNB weckt Begehrlichkeiten

Am nächsten Donnerstag publiziert die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) ihr Finanzergebnis für das Jahr 2019. Sie dürfte gemäss den Berechnungen der UBS für das Gesamtjahr einen Gewinn von rund CHF 50 Mrd. erzielt haben, im Schlussquartal resultierte hingegen ein Verlust von rund CHF 1 Mrd. Bund und Kantone können mit einer Auszahlung von CHF 2 Mrd. rechnen.

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Manufacturing Clears Up Bond Yields

Yesterday, IHS Markit reported that the manufacturing turnaround its data has been suggesting stalled. After its flash manufacturing PMI had fallen below 50 several times during last summer (only to be revised to slightly above 50 every time the complete survey results were tabulated), beginning in September 2019 the index staged a rebound jumping first to 51.1 in that month.

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