Tag Archive: newsletter

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Heavy inside monthly rising trend-channel, 0.9700 in focus

USD/CHF stays below the five-week-old falling trend line, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Bearish MACD increases the odds of the pair’s declines. Channel’s resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement will question buyers during the recovery. USD/CHF registers modest changes while taking rounds to 0.9730 ahead of the European session on Monday.

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Immobilienfinanzierung – Was mit dem Saron auf Schweizer Hypothekarkunden zukommt

Nationalbank-Direktorin Andréa Maechler schimpfte letzten Monat ein bisschen mit den Banken: Die Finanzinstitute sollten bei der Vergabe ihrer Geldmarkthypotheken zügig damit anfangen, vom Referenzzinssatz Libor abzukehren. Denn der Libor – voll ausgeschrieben "London Interbank Offered Rate" – wird definitiv nur noch bis Ende 2021 erstellt.

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FX Weekly Preview: Back to Macro?

The US-China trade conflict and then US-Iran confrontation distracted investors from the macroeconomic drivers of the capital markets. It is not that there is really much closure with the exogenous issues, but they are in a less challenging place, at least on the surface. 

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Pension funds have absorbed 2018 fall in stock market values

16.12.2019 - Overall, the pension funds have survived the sluggish stock markets of 2018. The negative net return on investments was largely offset by using 40% of the existing reserves for fluctuations in asset value. Underfunding rose by 20%. These are some of the final results from the Federal Statistical Office’s 2018 pension fund statistics.

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Blackrock, un pouvoir institutionnalisé. LHK.

Le 9 janvier 2012, le banquier central suisse démissionnait suite à une accusation de présomption de délit d’initié dans une affaire d’opérations de change sur sa fortune privée (Wikipédia), il devint dans la foulée vice-président du groupe Blackrock. Une réelle promotion dans le cadre d’un monde globalisé.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM has been able to get some traction as markets basically shrugged off the risk-off sentiment after the Iran attacks.  This week’s planned signing of the Phase One trade deal should help boost EM further, but we remain cautious.  The Iran situation is by no means solved, and we see periodic bouts of risk-off sentiment coming from smaller skirmishes. 

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Changes to the UBS Board of Directors

Zurich, 10 January 2020 – The Board of Directors of UBS Group AG announced today that it will nominate Nathalie Rachou and Mark Hughes for election to the Board at the Annual General Meeting on 29 April, 2020. David Sidwell and Isabelle Romy will not stand for re-election. David Sidwell will have completed a twelve year term of office and Isabelle Romy has decided to step down after eight years on the UBS Board.

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Crypto determined to emerge from the shadows

Global politicians, regulators, financiers and technology pioneers will soon be gathering in Switzerland for the World Economic Forum. This has not been lost on the blockchain and crypto industry, which is redoubling efforts to engage with policy makers. Next week’s Crypto Finance Conference (CfC), in the up-market ski resort of St Moritz, has positioned itself to attract such big-hitters, days before they attend the annual WEF summit in nearby...

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Swiss unemployment drops to new low 

The Swiss unemployment rate fell to 2.3% in 2019, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). That’s the lowest yearly rate for almost 20 years. SECO said in a statementexternal link on Friday that 106,932 people were registered with regional job centres in 2019, 9.5% less than in the previous year.

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“Low” Tax Rates Often Mask Much Larger Tax Burdens

Discussions about the incentive effects of taxes can be misleading. The focus is usually on the tax rates imposed. But one’s incentives are not best measured by tax rates, but by how much value created for others (reflected in consumers' willingness to pay) is retained by the creator, which I refer to as take-home income.

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Nationalbank stellt zusätzliche Ausschüttung in Aussicht

Dank der hohen Ausschüttungsreserve stellt die Nationalbank zusätzliche Ausschüttungen an Bund und Kantone in Aussicht.Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) wird für das Geschäftsjahr 2019 nach provisorischen Berechnungen einen Gewinn in der Grössenordnung von 49 Mrd. Franken ausweisen. Wie die SNB am Donnerstag mitteilte, entfiel der Löwenanteil des Gewinns mit rund 40 Mrd. Franken auf Fremdwährungspositionen.

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A Fearful Fed Keeps Pouring Money Into the Repo Market

The Fed announced on Thursday it is adding another 83 billion in "in temporary liquidity to financial markets" And, in a development that will surprise no cynic anywhere, the Fed also noted it "may keep adding temporary money to markets for longer than policy makers had expected in September."

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Trump to attend World Economic Forum in Switzerland

US President Donald Trump plans to attend the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the Swiss mountain resort of Davos this month, making up for an appearance he cancelled during last year’s US government shutdown. White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham confirmed on Wednesday that Trump would attend the annual forum, which attracts wealthy, high-profile business and political figures, along with academics and other leaders of...

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Global Headwinds and Disinflationary Pressures

I’m going to go back to Mexico for the third day in a row. First it was imports (meaning Mexico’s exports) then automobile manufacturing and now Industrial Production. I’ll probably come back to this tomorrow when INEGI updates that last number for November 2019. For now, through October will do just fine, especially in light of where automobile production is headed (ICYMI, off the bottom of the charts).

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The owl has landed: Lagarde’s new vision for the ECB

On December 12, Christine Lagarde introduced her goals and vision in her first rate-setting meeting as the new President of the ECB. On the actual policy front, there were no surprises. She remained committed to the path set by her predecessor, Mario Draghi, and kept the current monetary stimulus unchanged.

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FX Daily, January 10: Jobs Friday: Asymmetrical Risks?

Overview:  The first full week of 2020 is ending on a quiet note, pending the often volatile US jobs report.  New record highs US equities on the back of easing geopolitical anxiety is a reflection of greater risk appetite that is evident across the capital markets.  Asia Pacific equities mostly rose today, though Chinese shares and a few of the smaller markets saw small losses. 

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Sellers hopeful on Doji formation below monthly trendline

USD/CHF portrays buyers’ exhaustion despite the absence of losses since Tuesday. December month low will be the key to watch. USD/CHF trades mostly unchanged around 0.9730 while heading into the European session on Friday. The pair formed a Doji candlestick on the daily (D1) chart by Thursday’s end after recovering for the two consecutive prior days.

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Swiss unions call for ‘social agenda’ in EU relations

Switzerland’s largest trade union group has repeated its warning that any framework deal reached with the European Union must respect measures to protect wages from cross-border competition. At the annual conference of the Swiss Trade Union Federation on Thursday, the objective of keeping wage measures in place was hammered home by group president Pierre-Yves Maillard.

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‘Farting archaeobacteria’ awarded Swiss energy prize

Flatulent bacteria, electric vehicles and a supply network for greenhouses are among the winners of this year’s Watt d’Or competition organised by the Federal Office of Energy. “What is the link between flatulence and renewable energy?” the energy office asked. “The answer is Archie, the farting archaeobacteria.”

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The Fed Can’t Reverse the Decline of Financialization and Globalization

The global economy and financial system are both running on the last toxic fumes of financialization and globalization. For two generations, globalization and financialization have been the two engines of global growth and soaring assets. Globalization can mean many things, but its beating heart is the arbitraging of the labor of the powerless, and commodity, environmental and tax costs by the powerful to increase their profits and wealth.

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