Tag Archive: newsletter

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM was mostly lower last week, as doubts crept in about the recent trade optimism. Some events also served as reminders of idiosyncratic EM risk that can’t be overlooked, such as downgrade risks (South Africa), failed oil auctions (Brazil), and violent protests (CLP). EM may remain on its back foot until we get further clarity on the US-China talks, but we remain confident in our call that a deal will be struck soon that lower existing tariffs. 

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Riding the Type 3 Mega Market Melt Up Train

Beta-driven Fantasy. The decade long bull market run, aside from making everyone ridiculously rich, has opened up a new array of competencies. The proliferation of ETFs, for instance, has precipitated a heyday for the ETF Analyst. So, too, blind faith in data has prompted the rise of Psychic Quants… who see the future by modeling the past.

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Why Government Should not Fight Deflation

For most experts, deflation is considered bad news since it generates expectations of a decline in prices. As a result, they believe, consumers are likely to postpone their buying of goods at present since they expect to buy these goods at lower prices in the future.

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Avenir Suisse erteilt Schweizer Staatsfonds klare Absage

Kein Sparschweinchen aus SNB-Pfründen. (Bild: Shutterstock.com/ valeriiaarnaud)Das Vermögen von Norwegens erfolgreichem Staatsfonds hat die Billionen-Franken-Schwelle geknackt und erntet entsprechende mediale Aufmerksamkeit. Dies lässt auch in der Schweiz Forderungen nach einem ähnlichen Konstrukt aufleben, um vorhersehbare AHV-Finanzierungslücken dereinst zu decken.

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More than 100 members of Extinction Rebellion convicted in Switzerland

In September 2019, groups of people belonging to the group Extinction Rebellion blocked two road bridges in Lausanne. Local police cleared the bridges by removing, in some cases carrying, protesters away. On 7 November 2019, 117 of the people involved in the bridge protests were convicted and fined for breaking Switzerland’s penal code, according to RTS.

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Red Flags Over Labor

Better-than-expected is the new strong. Even I’m amazed at the satisfaction being taken with October’s payroll numbers. While you never focus too much on one monthly estimate, this time it might be time to do so. But not for those other reasons. Sure, GM caused some disruption and the Census is winding down, both putting everyone on edge. The whisper numbers were low double digits, maybe even a negative headline estimate.

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A Perfect Example of the Euro$ Squeeze

Germany’s vast industrial sector continued in the tank in September. According to new estimates from deStatis, that country’s government agency responsible for maintaining economic data, Industrial Production dropped by another 4% year-over-year during the month of September 2019. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline at around that alarming rate.

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The Wave of Negative Rates Starts to Recede

Negative yields on long-term European government bonds took financial markets by storm earlier this year but are starting to fade away as investors express renewed optimism about global economic growth. The yield on 10-year bonds issued by the French and Belgian governments turned positive Thursday for the first time since mid-July.

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Ocasio-Cortez is Wrong: We’re Not Working 80-Hour Weeks Now

It has become nearly commonplace for pundits and politicians to claim that Americans are working more than ever before; that they're working more jobs, and working longer hours — all for a lower income. During the Democratic debates this summer, for instance, Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio claimed "the economic system now forces us to have two or three jobs just to get by.” Kamala Harris made similar comments.

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Negativzinsen: Für KMU überwiegen weder Kosten noch Nutzen

Schweizer Unternehmen sind wenig abhängig vom Wechselkurs, da nur die wenigsten exportieren. (Bild: Shutterstock.com/guruxox)Auch fünf Jahre nach der Einführung von Negativzinsen zur Schwächung des Frankenwechselkurses durch die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) deutet nichts darauf hin, dass diese Phase der Geldpolitik bald dzu Ende gehen wird.

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Swiss payments system aims to link bitcoin and retailers

Prominent European payment infrastructure provider Worldline has teamed up with financial services firm Bitcoin Suisse to allow cryptocurrency enthusiasts to spend their bitcoin in Swiss shops. Worldline last year took over SIX Payment Services, the former arm of the Swiss stock exchange group that provides payment card terminals in 85,000 Swiss retail outlets.

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Demobilising Swiss merchant navy to cost another CHF100 million

Switzerland will incur a further CHF100 million ($101 million) loss as it continues to reduce its merchant shipping fleet. The ongoing bill for selling off ships and meeting their debt obligations has now risen to an estimated CHF300 million, the government has admitted.

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Geneva to ban Uber if it doesn’t change its operating model

After a legal analyis the government of the canton of Geneva has decided that drivers of the ride hailing service are employees rather than independent contractors, effectively banning Uber from operating under its current model. In an interview with RTS, Mauro Poggia, a lawyer and Geneva state councillor, said that Uber is a transport company and as such must employ its drivers.

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Still Stuck In Between

There wasn’t much by way of the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI to allay fears of recession. Much like the payroll numbers, an uncolored analysis of them, anyway, there was far more bad than good. For the month of October 2019, the index rose slightly from September’s decade low. At 48.3, it was up just half a point last month from the month prior

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The Sudden Need For A Trade Deal

Talk of trade deals is everywhere. Markets can’t get enough of it, even the here-to-fore pessimistic bond complex. Rates have backed up as a few whispers of BOND ROUT!!! reappear from their one-year slumber. If Trump broke the global economy, then his trade deal fixes it. There’s another way of looking at it, though. Why did the President go spoiling for trouble with China in 2018?

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Gold ETF and Central Bank Gold Buying Supports Gold Demand In Q3

Gold demand grew modestly to 1,107.9 tonnes (t) in Q3 thanks to the largest ETF inflows since Q1 2016. A surge in ETF inflows (258t) outweighed weakness elsewhere in the market to nudge gold demand 3% higher in Q3. Global central bank buying remained healthy but significantly lower than the record levels of Q3 2018.

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Maurice Jackson Interviews Brien Lundin and Jayant Bhandari

Our friend Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable has recently conducted two interviews which we believe will be of interest to our readers. The first interview  is with Brien Lundin, the president of Jefferson Financial, host of the famed New Orleans Investment Conference and publisher & editor of the Gold Newsletter – an investment newsletter that has been around for almost five decades, which actually makes it the longest-running US-based...

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Switzerland Unemployment in October 2019: Up to 2.2 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.3 percent

Unemployment registered in October 2019 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of October 2019, 101'684 unemployed were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 2 586 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate rose from 2.1% in September 2019 to 2.2% in the month under review.

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FX Daily, November 8: Risk Appetites Satiated Ahead of the Weekend

The capital markets are consolidating the recent moves ahead of the weekend. Equities are paring this week's gains, though the Nikkei, which was closed on Monday, extended its advance for the fourth consecutive session. Despite the profit-taking today, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fifth week. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a five-day rally, but it is closing in on the fifth consecutive weekly advance.

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Negative rates might go lower, says Swiss National Bank chairman

Thomas Jordan, chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), told the NZZ am Sonntag newspaper recently that central bank interest rates might need to go further into negative territory. Responding to growing criticism of negative central bank interest rates, Jordan said negative interest rates could continue and a further reduction is possible.

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